Jennings or Marshall?

[Schroedess26]

Who you buying over the next 4 years? I would lead Jennings but Marshall is like AJ being the only key target in the offense.

[Scorp]

Marshall

[skip]

PPR league, Marshall for sure

[hosler427]

Marshall and isn't close

[Water Buffalo]

Oh come on. I have no problem with saying Marshall, and I'd probably say Marshall myself (especially in PPR). But it's not even close? I can't agree with that.

They're both 26 years old, so age certainly isn't a factor. Jennings certainly has the edge in the "mental" department, having never been an off the field problem unlike Marshall. Jennings has proven himself to be a solid WR with back to back 1100+ yard receiving seasons. Yes, his TD #s were down a bit last year, but like many say, you can't always really predict TDs. He's in arguably the top passing offense in the NFL with a still young top QB throwing him the ball. Driver isn't getting any younger either, and more balls could be headed Jennings way sooner or later. On top of this, the Packers defense is mediocre at best when it concerns stopping the pass, meaning they will be in a lot of long clock stopping shootout type games.

Contrast this with Marshall, who is a great WR (don't get me wrong), but has a few more unknowns surrounding him right now than many are considering in my opinion. He just got paid, so you never know how he will react to this. He was traded to a team with an unproven QB. Granted, he was with an iffy QB in Denver too 2 years ago and performed, but the point being that change CAN have an unknown effect. My biggest concern with him right now would be that Miami is clearly a run first team unlike Denver's pass happy approach. Miami will play a lot of fast paced clock eating games.

Last year, in what was considered a down year for Jennings (while dealing with nagging injuries), he had 69 grabs for 1120 yards and 4 TDs.

Last year, In what was considered a pretty good year for Marshall he had 101 grabs for 1120 yards and 10 TDs. And remember, 21 of these catches and 200 yards were in 1 game when the Colts basically decided to not cover him at all.

They had exactly the same amount of yards (and the year prior, Jennings actually had more yards AND TDs than Marshall, 1292 & 9 vs 1265 & 6). And if you are one of those people that says you cant predict TDs, then throw those out and it's pretty darn even on stats. The only area where Marshall has consistently outperformed Jennings is number of catches. This is the reason I'd still give him the edge in a PPR setting of course.

I just don't think you can completely overlook the fact that Marshall is in a completely new environment/team/QB/situation/contract. And I certainly don't think it's crazy to think that Jennings could easily have a slightly better year, Marshall a slightly worse year, and have their stats much more similar, with Jennings probably getting a few more yards and Marshall probably getting a few more catches to even things out.

[Risky bidness]

Marshall and I agree it's not close.

[dlf_ericd]

I'll take the other side & agree with Water Buffalo...I'll take Jennings in NON-PPR, Marshall in PPR. One of the big reasons for Jennings 'down' year was the fact the Packers had a horrible offensive line in the 1st half of the year. Rodgers relies on the protection in order to throw the deep ball to Jennings. Also, add in the emergence of Finley pulling coverage to the middle of the field (as he did towards the end of last year) and I see an improvement in Jennings stats.

Marshall is too much of a headcase to not worry about it affecting his performance. Great talent, but not near the work ethic and steadiness of Jennings. For those saying it's not even close, I think you'll feel differently in 2-3 years.

[hosler427]

Oh come on. I have no problem with saying Marshall, and I'd probably say Marshall myself (especially in PPR). But it's not even close? I can't agree with that.

They're both 26 years old, so age certainly isn't a factor. Jennings certainly has the edge in the "mental" department, having never been an off the field problem unlike Marshall. Jennings has proven himself to be a solid WR with back to back 1100+ yard receiving seasons. Yes, his TD #s were down a bit last year, but like many say, you can't always really predict TDs. He's in arguably the top passing offense in the NFL with a still young top QB throwing him the ball. Driver isn't getting any younger either, and more balls could be headed Jennings way sooner or later. On top of this, the Packers defense is mediocre at best when it concerns stopping the pass, meaning they will be in a lot of long clock stopping shootout type games.

Contrast this with Marshall, who is a great WR (don't get me wrong), but has a few more unknowns surrounding him right now than many are considering in my opinion. He just got paid, so you never know how he will react to this. He was traded to a team with an unproven QB. Granted, he was with an iffy QB in Denver too 2 years ago and performed, but the point being that change CAN have an unknown effect. My biggest concern with him right now would be that Miami is clearly a run first team unlike Denver's pass happy approach. Miami will play a lot of fast paced clock eating games.

Last year, in what was considered a down year for Jennings (while dealing with nagging injuries), he had 69 grabs for 1120 yards and 4 TDs.

Last year, In what was considered a pretty good year for Marshall he had 101 grabs for 1120 yards and 10 TDs. And remember, 21 of these catches and 200 yards were in 1 game when the Colts basically decided to not cover him at all.

They had exactly the same amount of yards (and the year prior, Jennings actually had more yards AND TDs than Marshall, 1292 & 9 vs 1265 & 6). And if you are one of those people that says you cant predict TDs, then throw those out and it's pretty darn even on stats. The only area where Marshall has consistently outperformed Jennings is number of catches. This is the reason I'd still give him the edge in a PPR setting of course.

I just don't think you can completely overlook the fact that Marshall is in a completely new environment/team/QB/situation/contract. And I certainly don't think it's crazy to think that Jennings could easily have a slightly better year, Marshall a slightly worse year, and have their stats much more similar, with Jennings probably getting a few more yards and Marshall probably getting a few more catches to even things out.

You kind of made my point for me mainly being the primary format people play in is PPR. In three years as a starter Marshall has recorded 102, 104, and 101 catches. In four years as a starter Jennings has never had over 80 (he had 80 one year) and the other three totals of 45, 53, and 68. There are some injuries to account for things and his first year he was learning the offense and stuff. I like Jennings a lot but in PPR format it isn't close. Marshall...tier 1. Jennings is a step down and lower tier 2.

On top of this, Marshall has done well with both Cutler and Orton. I like Henne more than either of them. The other thing is, the Dolphins didn't give him almost $50 million to not use him. He will be heavily involved in their gameplan. I think you are right about his contract though...his maturity will be tested but I think the Dolphins discipline have a better chance to keep him in line than the random pissing contests that Josh McDaniels chose.

[jthirteentimes]

I'll take the other side & agree with Water Buffalo...I'll take Jennings in NON-PPR, Marshall in PPR. One of the big reasons for Jennings 'down' year was the fact the Packers had a horrible offensive line in the 1st half of the year. Rodgers relies on the protection in order to throw the deep ball to Jennings. Also, add in the emergence of Finley pulling coverage to the middle of the field (as he did towards the end of last year) and I see an improvement in Jennings stats.

x2

Perfect explanation. Couldn't agree more. Once that offensive line made some improvements around week 10 or so, Jennings' production skyrocketed.

[Steelersfan]

Marshall in either format for me.

[Scorp]

I didn't add an explanation for picking Marshall, but I would think Finley's emergence would downgrade Jennings a bit, taking those TD's away along with targets. I also think the AFC East is going to be a scoring machine in the next few years, but that's not enough because the NFC North doesn't look too bad with the passing QB's they have there. You couldn't have picked two closer ranked prospects at the WR position except for maybe a third guy from Detroit.

[Misfit74]

PPR league, Marshall for sure

[Biggcmo]

I would take Marshall all the way. But in Non PPR its close

[MR ROURKE]

Marshall over Jennings in any format.