The value of rookie picks

[Madster]

This is inspired by another thread where a couple of guys wrote that getting Miles Austin for 2 future 1st round picks would be an absolute steal, and as a new dynasty player that made me think: How do you guys value future picks?

To make it more concrete, lets say you are in a 12 team PPR league with pretty deep rosters and that picks can only be traded 2 years into the future, what would you give for:

RB1 (Think AP, CJ)
RB2 (Think McCoy, PT)

WR1 (Think AJ, Fitz)
WR2 (Think Boldin, Steve Smith NYG)

TE1 (Think Vernon Davis, Gates)

QB1 (Think Rodgers, Brees)

Note: I tried to mention some guys who are neither young nor old so the valuation focuses more on current production rather than future upside.

[BradyT]

You would have to pay atleast 4 or 5 first rounder for a g8uy like AD or Chris Johnson. Getting those kind of players only with picks is close to not possible.

[Madster]

Impossible is a perfectly legit answer, I am just trying to gauge the value

[hosler427]

Impossible is a perfectly legit answer, I am just trying to gauge the value

On top of impossible...it isn't wise to trade a stud just for draft picks. You could get 5 picks in the back half of the first round and success rate of those picks goes down. I would say in general you are talking 4-6 first rounders for an absolute stud. 3-4 for a WR2 or RB2

[Madster]

Agreed, it isn't a realistic scenario to trade for a stud in picks only, it is merely to some sort of grip on the valuation of rookie picks, and as a dynasty newbie I am surprised that a WR2 would be worth 3-4 1st rounders, but that is exactly why I am asking.

[hosler427]

Agreed, it isn't a realistic scenario to trade for a stud in picks only, it is merely to some sort of grip on the valuation of rookie picks, and as a dynasty newbie I am surprised that a WR2 would be worth 3-4 1st rounders, but that is exactly why I am asking.

Well it depends on the quality of WR2. You listed Steve Smith NY there and I would want a lot of him. Boldin...probably 2 first rounders if the right teams are involved due to his age/injuries. It is situational just like most things

[49ersFaithful80]

rookie draft picks are always undervalued..always. Mostly because people are so short sighted that they only really care about winning now. It makes me laugh when I see people giving up multiple first rounders for players such as randy moss. The way to build a great dynasty roster is through rookie drafts. If your team is mediocre It's a good idea to trade away one of your better players to pick up a few picks, because believe it or not even Adrian and CJ were rookie drafts picks at one time.

[bobbytheo3]

I would trade Boldin for 2 firsts in a heartbeat.

One owner in my league currently has an offer of 4 firsts for Marshall and the Marshall guy is considering.

[Steelersfan]

rookie draft picks are always undervalued..always. Mostly because people are so short sighted that they only really care about winning now. It makes me laugh when I see people giving up multiple first rounders for players such as randy moss. The way to build a great dynasty roster is through rookie drafts. If your team is mediocre It's a good idea to trade away one of your better players to pick up a few picks, because believe it or not even Adrian and CJ were rookie drafts picks at one time.

I see your point and agree to a certain extent but for every Peterson and CJ there are a million more McFaddens, Sweeds, Leinarts, etc...

[BradyT]

I can tell you why I´m valueing rookie draft picks relatively high.... I love to draft. I like having several picks in the first few rounds, doing the research and then determine who´s gonna be my guy and having the thrill of looking for the next great thing. BUt Mark is right.. while there could be a Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson, you also have to know that someone like them will not occure year in and year out. There are many more that have the names of Darren McFadden, Brandon Jackson, Laurence Maroney etc...

[hosler427]

rookie draft picks are always undervalued..always. Mostly because people are so short sighted that they only really care about winning now. It makes me laugh when I see people giving up multiple first rounders for players such as randy moss. The way to build a great dynasty roster is through rookie drafts. If your team is mediocre It's a good idea to trade away one of your better players to pick up a few picks, because believe it or not even Adrian and CJ were rookie drafts picks at one time.

While agree with this and follow this for the most part, there is more than one way to build a successful dynasty. Some owners aren't very good at drafting rookies and know it...they are better off dealing their picks for proven commodities. Some owners exploit the undervaluing of vets at draft time and exploit that in the trade market. Like I said...while I agree there is more than one way to do it successfully.

[hosler427]

rookie draft picks are always undervalued..always. Mostly because people are so short sighted that they only really care about winning now. It makes me laugh when I see people giving up multiple first rounders for players such as randy moss. The way to build a great dynasty roster is through rookie drafts. If your team is mediocre It's a good idea to trade away one of your better players to pick up a few picks, because believe it or not even Adrian and CJ were rookie drafts picks at one time.

While agree with this and follow this for the most part, there is more than one way to build a successful dynasty. Some owners aren't very good at drafting rookies and know it...they are better off dealing their picks for proven commodities. Some owners exploit the undervaluing of vets at draft time and exploit that in the trade market. Like I said...while I agree there is more than one way to do it successfully.

Just to add to this as well...it really depends on the state of a team. If a team is going to try to win it now and has all the ammo, trading 2 first rounders for Randy Moss could be a great move.

[thevidon2]

rookie draft picks are always undervalued..always. Mostly because people are so short sighted that they only really care about winning now. It makes me laugh when I see people giving up multiple first rounders for players such as randy moss. The way to build a great dynasty roster is through rookie drafts. If your team is mediocre It's a good idea to trade away one of your better players to pick up a few picks, because believe it or not even Adrian and CJ were rookie drafts picks at one time.

I tend to feel the same way. In my DLF leagues the first round picks get traded around constantly, but in my local guppy league they are jealously guarded like golden treasures.

Funny how those who could make the best use of the picks seem to de-value them. I wonder why that is?

[Madster]

Come to think of it, the value of the rookie picks also changes somewhat depending on when the rookie draft is being held.

If it is right after the NFL draft, then player value will be much harder to predict than if it is at the beginning of training camp or even later.

[skip]

rookie draft picks are always undervalued..always. ... The way to build a great dynasty roster is through rookie drafts.

Totally disagree with this assessment. On the contrary the team who are successful both in the short term and long term are the ones who realize that future picks are always overvalued. They will always trade away their future picks for both stud and upside players in the now to the owners who seem to think they can only win using this methodology. The "future" methodology does not work because those owner always ignore the now strictly for the hope of the future.

The "bird in the hand" philosophy owners win consistently over the future thinkers. Always.

Here is why... Right now I would hold future 2011 and 2012 picks in most leagues. I can deal one or the other (or both) away to a "future" minded owner for value to improve my team now. Next season I will then get my 2013 picks and do the same and the following year 2014 and so on. And do it consistently over and over again keeping my team as a winning team in the "short" term year in and year out. Meanwhile there will be owners always trading away their ability to win now to hope to build for a year or two into the future. And its a rolling system. I will always work my method while there are owners who work the other. Ultimately my methodology makes me a competitive team both over the short and long term while other owners are perpetually hoping for the long term.