Need Help perfecting Keeper Start-up Draft!

[Defender]

The league is 12 team, non-PPR, keep 10 (roster of 15, 8 starters: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 TM). I had the first overall pick, but felt value at 1.01 is too similar to value at 1.02 or 1.03, and I was afraid to be picking so late in the second round. So traded my 1.01 & 2.12 for 1.03 & 2.10 & a 2013 2nd rounder.

My thoughts so far have been to a balance between RBs and young WRs. My initial thoughts on the start-up draft were: 1.03 RB, 2.10 QB, 3.01 WR, 4.12 WR, 5.01 RB ... A possible line-up of: L McCoy, M, Stafford, AJ Green, K Britt, the Lawfirm...

But I have more recently been thinking of the merits of drafting with MAJOR focus on WR (and QB): 1.03 QB, 2.10 WR, 3.01 WR, 4.12 RB, 5.01 WR ... A possible line-up of: A Rodgers, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Spiller/Ingram, Torrey Smith/Steve Smith(CAR)/Decker...

I have already established that my strategy of winning will be through a young & talented receiving corps, focusing on RB in the coming years. So, is my first strategy best, or is my second strategy just crazy enough to work??? Give me any tips or suggestions!

[MilwaukeesBest]

IMO there's no way AJG falls to that far in your first example, getting him at 2.10 is more likely. Personally I would never take a QB that high at 1.3, but that's just me. If I were at 1.3 I'd take whoever is left from McCoy, Rice and Calvin. It's tough to gauge what positions to take in a draft without knowing the trends and who is off the board.

[Defender]

The only thing is that I don't know how much research my counterparts will be doing before hand... If their knowledge at the beginning of the draft is where mine was a couple days ago, he could fall lower than his actual value. But that is not a risk I am willing to take.

Many of the keeper mock drafts and ADP studies I am looking at have Rodgers going at 1.05, so I could try to trade down to 1.04 (the guy at 1.05 is the commish, and seems like a hard sell) while trading up to 2.09 to try to secure AJ Green (and possibly get another future draft pick out of it). What about that?

[1.01Guy]

It sounds like you are committed to not taking a RB at 1.03...?

[Defender]

That's right. I think RB, while they put up big fantasy points, are too inconsistent (in the long run) to be the core of a team in my league. I would take Rodgers over a RB any day (keeper, of course). This is all referring to the start-up draft, mind you.

If you think you can change my mind, I will gladly listen.