Week 12 Survivor Discussion

[flyersfan1981]

Anyone still alive???

I am down to 14 people out if almost 600, but my options are very limited this week. If I can just get my pick home this week I am set up really well for the next 3 weeks, but none of that matters here...

My options (limited because we can only pick against a team twice):

Pittsburgh @ Cincy...we know Cincy sucks, but I don't think much of this Steelers team without Conner and Juju. The defense could win it, but I don't have a ton of faith in the Steelers.

Atlanta vs. Bucs... obviously Atlanta is playing better and they are all home. If bad Jameis shows up, then Atlanta will roll, but TB's offense can score. I heard a fun fact today...Jameis Winston is the first QB to have 15 turnovers in a 3-game stretch since the last time Jameis Winston had 15 turnovers in a 3-game stretch.

Tennessee vs. Jags...I mean Tennessee coming off a bye after a great win against Mahomes...could this be a sneaky play?

I originally was going to take Oakland @ Jets, but Jets are playing better and Oakland is still Oakland. West coast team on a 1PM game...have to pass.

Another game that I have available, but would feel great about being able to save them for Week 15 is Baltimore @ LA Rams. I think this Rams team blows and Baltimore is on fire...but why is the spread only Baltimore -3? Seems Vegas knows something we don't here.

Anyone have any thoughts or still playing?

[bjd5211]

I'm out, but from those options I think you have to go Steelers.

[Blueboy]

None of those options are great, but I'd feel comfortable taking Oakland over NYJ. The Raiders' defensive line has really come on, and the Jets (who've already lost starting C and starting RG to IR) have three more starters on the O-line listed as Q due to injuries.

I like that as a solid baseline to get behind Oakland with confidence.

[Jigga94]

Oakland or Pit should be fine. Mad that I lost week 2 (CAR vs TB) because I've been right otherwise. I always try to make the riskier play in the beginning and it backfired.

Curious who you have left for the season as you mentioned it should be easy from here on

[flyersfan1981]

Oakland or Pit should be fine. Mad that I lost week 2 (CAR vs TB) because I've been right otherwise. I always try to make the riskier play in the beginning and it backfired.

Curious who you have left for the season as you mentioned it should be easy from here on

Well...I have only planned thru Week 15...at that point there will probably be some pot chopping, but if it has to go further then I have a decent option Week 16 if needed...

If I can get thru this week...

Week 13: Carolina over Washington
Week 14: Green Bay over Washington
Week 15: Baltimore over NYJ

All of those are home games...I mean Carolina is far from a guarantee, but Washington is really bad and I think CMC could do more than enough on his own to win that one.

Thanks for the thoughts guys...I am leaning toward Pittsburgh, but I just have a bad feeling about that one. Did Oakland just "play down" to Cincy last weekend?

Although I was not aware of the offensive line injuries for NYJ...if one or more of those is ruled out, I might be willing to go that direction.

[Jigga94]

Oh ya those next 3 weeks are solid. Who are the best teams you have left?

[honcho55]

I wouldn’t take Oakland. I think the jets are showing better than they are getting credit for now, with darnold healthy for a few games in a row.

Atlanta and TB would scare me, both those teams are volatile. Atlanta was garbage most the year, and red hot the last two games. TB... well, you said it with Winston.

I like Tennessee to win and cover, but they pretty volatile too.

So, guess I’d go Pitt or Bal?

[flyersfan1981]

Oh ya those next 3 weeks are solid. Who are the best teams you have left?

I still have some good teams...Green Bay, Baltimore, KC...our pool limits how many times you can pick against a team to just twice. My availability favorites for this week are:

Pittsburgh
Atlanta
Oakland
Baltimore
Tennessee
Detroit

So it is definitely dicey... Baltimore is on fire and trashed the Pats last time they were in prime time...

I mean Rudolph shredded the Bengals and Juju was a non-factor... probably going to go Pittsburgh and hold my nose while I do it...

Maybe I will bet $100 on Cincy ML to get a little satisfaction if they win...but the pot is $28K so it still wouldn't make me feel good...

[GrillMeister]

In same boat as you and hate my options as well.

I agree cincy is absolute trash however Pittsburgh have historically “played down” to their opponents level so the game will be likely competitive. Also I hate going against winless teams at this point in the season. They will be desperate to get that first win. On top of that, Pittsburgh have revenge game against cleveland next week(that’s gonna be one hell of a revenge game). All those factors makes me feel steelers gonna be unfocused and make this game dangerously close for comfort.

I picked cleveland but even as 11 point fav, I’m weary of them, for some of the same reasons as above. Also I hate going against Fitzpatrick, guy is definition of Jekyll and Hyde. Him and Winston are notorious survivor pool killers.

Really tough week. I always end up overthinking it in weeks like these. Good luck with your pick.

Btw you from philly? How you like the eagles this week?

[flyersfan1981]

In same boat as you and hate my options as well.

I agree cincy is absolute trash however Pittsburgh have historically “played down” to their opponents level so the game will be likely competitive. Also I hate going against winless teams at this point in the season. They will be desperate to get that first win. On top of that, Pittsburgh have revenge game against cleveland next week(that’s gonna be one hell of a revenge game). All those factors makes me feel steelers gonna be unfocused and make this game dangerously close for comfort.

I picked cleveland but even as 11 point fav, I’m weary of them, for some of the same reasons as above. Also I hate going against Fitzpatrick, guy is definition of Jekyll and Hyde. Him and Winston are notorious survivor pool killers.

Really tough week. I always end up overthinking it in weeks like these. Good luck with your pick.

Btw you from philly? How you like the eagles this week?

Good point on Fitzpatrick and Winston being survivor killers. I am likely going Pittsburgh because I think their defense is legit and they are desperate if they want to stay in the wild card race. But I don't feel great about it...

As for the Eagles...the only thing they have in their favor is the ebbs and flows of the NFL season and desperation. I don't see how they can win when their secondary will have to cover Lockett and DK for 8-10 seconds as Wilson extends the play. But they can certainly win a close game or they could lose by 17...I have no confidence in this receiving core, secondary, or coaching staff.

[GrillMeister]

Yeah pederson is driving everybody mad. Gotta get the ball in sanders hands, especially with Howard likely out again. Lane Johnson out is gonna be a big problem. Wentz is always horrible when lanes out. Probably won’t be able to stop Wilson like you said. Best chance is to keep him off the field by controlling the clock running the ball and maintaining long drives.

Anyway, good luck with Pittsburgh pick. I’m taking browns for now but might switch to ravens at last minute.

[trc]

I would go TEN home.
But agreed, none of the option are a safe bet.

[flyersfan1981]

Ok boys... Pittsburgh survives!!! And for the guy who took Cleveland, well done!!! We started with 14, lost 3 to Jameis "Survivor Killer" Winston... almost lost 3 more, but Carolina screwed the pooch. Would have been amazing for me if Carolina won that because they would have knocked out 3 more and confidence would be high for Washington coming into town next week. I have to think at this point I am probably still taking them, but less confident.

[Jigga94]

Next 3 weeks look good for you... What teams are left for 16 and 17?

[flyersfan1981]

Next 3 weeks look good for you... What teams are left for 16 and 17?

I try never to look more than 3 weeks ahead, but hard not to at this point...at this point, I would probably be looking at Indy at home over Carolina Week 16, and KC at home over LA Chargers...

Glad I followed my gut on Oakland being ya know... Oakland...