Quick Help! Preferred draft slot in 12 team PPR redraft

[Avery]

Looking for opinions on the best draft slot this year in a PPR redraft between the 9th, 10th, and 11th pick (my only options).

Lineup is: 1 RB, 2 WR, 1TE, 2 flex and 2 IDP

Counter arguments are getting higher up to grab a top WR or slider down to get closer to the turn.
Would love a vote and a quick option. Need to make my selection soon. What say you?

Thanks!

[moishetreats]

Here's the logic:

Round one is more valuable than round two. Round three is more valuable than round four. And so on. In short, odd-numbered rounds are more valuable than even-numbered rounds. So, better to have the earlier pick in the odd-numbered rounds. That means that you should ALWAYS default to taking the highest pick available.

The only compelling reason to deviate is if you are entirely confident that you can get the same player (or same caliber player) in the later draft slot. If that's the case, then you can drop down in the first round: you'd get the same player later in the first. That then makes the even-numbered rounds more valuable. As a concrete example, say that you can pick between the second and third pick of the draft in a one-QB PPR league. You have Barkley as #1 and CMC and Kamara as a toss-up for #2. Then go ahead and take the number three draft slot. Barring a scenario like that, though, take the better pick in the more favorable rounds.

In your case, I'd take #9 without a second thought. No way to know who slips there and whether or not you'd get the same player or a similar player later. You'll have the pick advantage in each of the more important rounds in every pair of rounds.

[Avery]

Here's the logic:

Round one is more valuable than round two. Round three is more valuable than round four. And so on. In short, odd-numbered rounds are more valuable than even-numbered rounds. So, better to have the earlier pick in the odd-numbered rounds. That means that you should ALWAYS default to taking the highest pick available.

The only compelling reason to deviate is if you are entirely confident that you can get the same player (or same caliber player) in the later draft slot. If that's the case, then you can drop down in the first round: you'd get the same player later in the first. That then makes the even-numbered rounds more valuable. As a concrete example, say that you can pick between the second and third pick of the draft in a one-QB PPR league. You have Barkley as #1 and CMC and Kamara as a toss-up for #2. Then go ahead and take the number three draft slot. Barring a scenario like that, though, take the better pick in the more favorable rounds.

In your case, I'd take #9 without a second thought. No way to know who slips there and whether or not you'd get the same player or a similar player later. You'll have the pick advantage in each of the more important rounds in every pair of rounds.

Thanks for the input!

You can really argue this in a multiple of ways. Staying close to the middle you don't miss out on runs as much but if you are closer to the turn, you can predict your next pick a bit better and strategize that way. I ended up focusing on the first two rounds so I went with the 11th pick as I saw a lot of parody from the 9th to 12th pick as I way already missing out on the top tier RBs and the very top of the WRs and that way I get a higher 2nd round pick.

As long as there aren't too many injuries in the pre-season (knock! knock!) I'd probably be looking at the likes of Beckham, Hill, Kelce, Bell with the 1.11 and can come back with one of those guys who drops or Juju, Chubb on the comeback.

[honcho55]

I voted the earliest slot also, for the same reasons moishetreats mentioned.

Thing is, it’s not linear how much more the odd numbered rounds are worth. In terms of pure pick position for overall value, there’s no real counter argument I buy personally. Any draft, real or fantasy, what’s it take to get from 9overall to 1 overall? And what does it take to bump up 8 spots in the 2nd?

On the flip side, sure, there’s strategy implications, if you don’t like being on the turn and seeing 22 guys go between your pair of picks, I get that. But there’s Pros on that side too, imo. You can go bang-bang and fill out a position. You can -start- a run, and watch half of those 22 picks be a position you are set at, increasing the value of your next set, etc

Bottom line when I’m picking draft slot, I project what guys I’ll get in the first 3 rounds. You’re choices of 9,10, 11 are probably close enough anyways but, I go early here