Who to KEEP???

[what000111]

In the league I am in; we are allowed to KEEP 2 players that were drafted anywhere between Round 4 & 14 but have to give up this years 1 Round earlier than you picked the player last year... I want to definitely KEEP P. Mahomes who I drafted in Round 8 last year (giving up my 7th round pick this year) but I am torn between giving up my 5th round Pick this year for Kerryon Johnson or giving up my 13th round pick for Darrius Guice. Now I think Kerryon Johnson will be the better back but I'm giving up practically nothing to keep Darrius Guice... Last year the league scoring was Standard but they are considering going PPR this year... Any help would be greatly appreciated!

[moishetreats]

Keep Johnson. You'll have a MUCH easier time re-acquiring Guice if you want without having to over-draft him than you would KJ. If you have them close enough in tiers, then obviously Guice is the preferred keeper. But, when Player A (in this case, KJ, IMO) is far better than Player B (Guice) and if both present good value -- which they both do -- then keep the better player. You won't get anyone else in Round 5 even close to KJ.

[Grimmer]

Agreed. I’d take Kerryon

[honcho55]

Well I’m well in the minority so I’ll voice it: I’d keep Guicey.

Curious how it works next year too, can you keep him again for another round bump?

Edit: some clarification

Taking a peek at FantasyPros redraft ADP, assuming OP is picking in the middle. At the ADP of the pick you would save NoT keeping kerryon, you have guys like Boyd, Lockett. At the pick where Guice is going, you have, I bleep you not, Kickers Gould and Lutz.

This of course is a very specific example, but I’ll take Guice and Boyd over Kerryon and a kicker all day.

[umbrellaacademy2019]

Keep Kerryon. With no Riddick he is in line to have a major role in the passing game.

[moishetreats]

Taking a peek at FantasyPros redraft ADP, assuming OP is picking in the middle. At the ADP of the pick you would save NoT keeping kerryon, you have guys like Boyd, Lockett. At the pick where Guice is going, you have, I bleep you not, Kickers Gould and Lutz.

This of course is a very specific example, but I’ll take Guice and Boyd over Kerryon and a kicker all day.

You're forgetting that every team is keeping two players, most of whom would likely be drafted in the top few rounds. So, you wouldn't be getting a guy like Boyd or Lockett; you'd be getting a guy typically drafted two rounds later than that.

[honcho55]

Taking a peek at FantasyPros redraft ADP, assuming OP is picking in the middle. At the ADP of the pick you would save NoT keeping kerryon, you have guys like Boyd, Lockett. At the pick where Guice is going, you have, I bleep you not, Kickers Gould and Lutz.

This of course is a very specific example, but I’ll take Guice and Boyd over Kerryon and a kicker all day.

You're forgetting that every team is keeping two players, most of whom would likely be drafted in the top few rounds. So, you wouldn't be getting a guy like Boyd or Lockett; you'd be getting a guy typically drafted two rounds later than that.

While this is definitely a factor, doesn’t change my opinion here. Particularly since in this league, they can only keep guys between rounds 4-14. My experience in leagues like this, of the 24 keepers:
4 keepers will be guys being kept at a slot they should be drafted at anyways, high value guys but don’t affect the draft pool

4-6 keepers will be huge values (I have Chubb in the 9th in mine). This category dings the value of rounds 2-9 by 4-6 spots.

4-8 will be teams that didn’t have too good of options so did things like kept a kicker or defense or low value/high upside guy with a very late pick. Or a usable starting QB, etc. this catergory doesn’t affect draft pick value much

The other half or so is on average, I would guess, 8-12 guys being kept about 3 rounds ahead of where they’d go, and in OP league this is across rounds 4-14. For argument I’ll just spread em evenly, say there’s 1 keeper per round from 4-14.

Adding this all up, that 5th round pick value really only gets dinged by keepers by about 9 picks in this theoretical example. Maybe not Boyd (although it’s very very possible he’s there) but still quality players.

The late pick is of course largely unaffected by keepers. It’s still a damn kicker by ADP.

^ I don’t even draft a kicker typically, let alone before the last pick, I just think it’s fun that kicker ADP falls into my argument here haha