Tyreek in Redraft

[wickerkat1212]

IF you are even thinking about taking a flier on Tyreek in a redraft, where are you willing to take him?

5th round?
7th?
10th
Later?
Not at all?

His ADP is 96, so for 12-man, 8th round.

[moishetreats]

I'm willing to take him at the spot where I won't be kicking myself for burning a pick on someone who might not play at all. In my head, I imagine that he tore his MCL or meniscus or something, is guaranteed to start on the PUP list, and could be back anywhere from Week 7-12.

That often depends on how my draft is going, but I'd start considering him in the 5th. Hard to get too excited about drafting him that early, though. He's an upside value, IMO, any time in the 8th/9th or later.

[chaoyi]

depends on how many RB/WR/Flex starter you need, but i would probably either get Hill as my last flex or my first bench

[DYNASTY BALLA$]

I'm not touching Tyreek in redraft leagues unless I know what his suspension will be prior to the draft.

I just landed him 6.09 in a dynasty startup. That seemed like a tremendous value for an elite 25 year old WR who might only miss out on 6-10 games this year. If you bet your 5th or 6th round pick on him in a Redraft league and are wrong, it might cost you the season.

[moishetreats]

I was thinking about this, and let me answer another way:

Everyone has a round where they're willing to gamble on the proverbial upside play. For some, it's even round 2, looking for the breakthrough player. But, that's not what I really mean. Everyone has a round where they're willing to bet on someone's breakout recognizing a minimal floor. I could see someone drafting, for instance, D'Onta Foreman as early as fifth, and I could see others not taking him until double-digit rounds at the earliest. Where does Kyler Murray go? Will someone bank on his rushing production as a QB and overdraft him to tap into the upside?

Bottom line, there's a point at which you're willing to take a player with a minimal floor because the payoff is simply far too great at the current round.

IMO, Hill in the same same category, but even more so. His floor is minimal -- he could be suspended for the year (doubtful, IMO, but certainly possible). But, unlike the other upside hopefuls, we reasonably expect that, if and when he plays, he'll be a WR1: he'll hit his upside. So, if you are prepared to gamble, say, your 8th-round pick on a guy with a low floor but whom you believe has a good chance of hitting his ceiling, then I'd add at least one round for Hill: you're baking in the risk of the floor without having to doubt the upside.

One other benefit to Hill over those other guys: If those other guys don't hit their ceilings early, you're still holding them since they are likely pegged as second-half breakouts. They become roster-cloggers. With Hill, though, you'll be 100% certain if you are going to keep him or cut him.