Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Elroypedro » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:02 pm

Excluding week 17 where he scored 12.4 points in about half a game, here are Damien Williams last 4 .5ppr point totals:

17
27.3
21.5
23.9

thats 22.4 ppg.

Gurley, excluding his two games where he sat, averaged 24.4 ppg.

CMC, excluding week 17 where he played less than a quarter, averaged 21.8 ppg.

Barkley played all of every game and averaged 21.3 ppg.

4. Kamara 20.9
5. Gordon 20.8
6. Hunt 19.7
7. Elliot 19.3
8. Conner 19.3


Shoot, including that half game, he averaged 20.4 ppg in his last 5 games as the starter. Wowee
Team 1
10 team .5 PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: McCaffery, Guice, D Williams, Breida, Drake, Penny, S Ware, R Jones, J Adams, I Smith
WR: A Brown, Jeffery, Robinson, Ridley, Pettis, Miller, Shepard, Callaway, MVS, Washington
TE: Kelce, Herndon

Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4

*2018 Champ*

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Orenthal Shames
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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:12 pm

Man, I Kyle Shanahan'ed the table for Williams as soon as the Hunt news broke.

The guy has been every bit, if not better than Hunt was in the same role. I get it, small sample size, but still. At this point, how isn't he worth a first in dynasty?
Last edited by Orenthal Shames on Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:45 pm, edited 6 times in total.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19 Champion

QB: Tannehill, Brees
RB: Kamara, CMC, Sanders, Davis, Murray, Scott
WR: Julio, Hill, KA, Hamler
TE: Kelce, Kittle

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Multiple Scorgasms » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:25 pm

In my mind, there's no question whatsoever that this guy is a stud fantasy player if he retains the job. The only question is will he. As I've suspected for a few weeks now, my conclusion is that it's gonna be unlikely someone else wins a job ahead of him. It damn sure won't be a UFA and the only way I could see a rookie doing it is if some stud fell like a round or 2 lower than he's supposed to and the Chiefs take him as BPA and he just blows up. Heck, at this point I don't even know if they need to spend a mid-round pick on the position ... just for the sake of doing it. Just because Kareem's gone. Arguably RB is a stronger position than others like CB.

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Huh » Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:59 pm

Multiple Scorgasms wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:25 pm
In my mind, there's no question whatsoever that this guy is a stud fantasy player if he retains the job. The only question is will he. As I've suspected for a few weeks now, my conclusion is that it's gonna be unlikely someone else wins a job ahead of him. It damn sure won't be a UFA and the only way I could see a rookie doing it is if some stud fell like a round or 2 lower than he's supposed to and the Chiefs take him as BPA and he just blows up. Heck, at this point I don't even know if they need to spend a mid-round pick on the position ... just for the sake of doing it. Just because Kareem's gone. Arguably RB is a stronger position than others like CB.
I think the rbs next year will be the willians brothers and west or his replacement. Why spend money when you are putting up 150 yards while catching everything, and converting all short yardage with what you have. Damien is a rb1 for the next two years. Barring injury of course.

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby ninotoreS » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:36 am

Orenthal Shames wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:12 pm
Man, I Kyle Shanahan'ed the table for Williams as soon as the Hunt news broke.

The guy has been every bit, if not better than Hunt was in the same role. I get it, small sample size, but still. At this point, how isn't he worth a first in dynasty?
I don't like to pay a 1st for a soon-to-be 27 y/o RB unless I'm very confident he'll be a blue-chip win-now asset for a couple of years.

I'm getting pretty optimistic about Damien at this point, but KC remains likely to add players to their RB depth-chart this offseason, via free-agency, draft, or both. I think it's safe to say Williams and has played his way into a prominent role next year, but it's not a given he'll feature in '19 the way he is now with only Darrel, Ware, and West for competition.
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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:05 am

ninotoreS wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:36 am
I don't like to pay a 1st for a soon-to-be 27 y/o RB unless I'm very confident he'll be a blue-chip win-now asset for a couple of years.

I'm getting pretty optimistic about Damien at this point, but KC remains likely to add players to their RB depth-chart this offseason, via free-agency, draft, or both. I think it's safe to say Williams and has played his way into a prominent role next year, but it's not a given he'll feature in '19 the way he is now with only Darrel, Ware, and West for competition.
Williams is one of those players that very few people will pay for, but has a good chance of out-producing the value buyers are willing to give. Chiefs will probably bring in some competition, but his floor projects to be the highest of the group because of his role on passing downs and the fact that they gave him an extension before he hit free agency. They must've had a feeling that his price would go up.

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Multiple Scorgasms » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:53 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:36 am
KC remains likely to add players to their RB depth-chart this offseason, via free-agency, draft, or both. I think it's safe to say Williams and has played his way into a prominent role next year, but it's not a given he'll feature in '19 the way he is now with only Darrel, Ware, and West for competition.
Nothing is a given. But I'm at the point I'd practically guarantee Williams IS the feature back. Think about it like this: RB is NOT a need. People just haven't adjusted their thought process between the time Hunt was cut and now, even though we have a lot more information. Another thing people don't realize is that the Chiefs were REALLY high on Williams back in August. I can't be bothered to dig up the articles to prove my point (it's your guys' losses if you ignore me), but for whatever reason they really liked him and talked up how well he'll fit the system and can do the type of things they need their RBs to do.

I myself completely doubted it and thought about his lackluster time in Miami, but Williams has impressed me a lot. He fits the system perfectly. It turns out they knew what they were talking about. Shocker: Andy Reid found a RB and made him a stud.

And damn man, they ALREADY gave him a contract extension. I'm telling you guys. Williams will end up with 250+ touches (maybe +++) and be the absolute steal of the draft or in your dynasty leagues where the savvy owner acquires him for a too-little price. I have a pretty good record on KC things on this forum. Thank me now and quote me 12 months from now. :dance:

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby ninotoreS » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:02 pm

To be clear, I own Damien Williams. Picked him up right after Hunt was waived. So. I'd love for him to be a late-career superstar. It would potentially give me four top 10 RBs to contend with next season. xD

I have to be skeptical, though. I studied Damien quite a bit a few years ago, when Jay Ajayi was a rookie and I had shares. I concluded Damien's a plus pass-catcher, but on the Miami tape he was an indecisive runner between the tackles. Seemed to struggle with his vision. Nearly all of his quality carries were to the outside, where the daylight was obvious. It's hard for me to believe the player I saw in Miami for years isn't the real Damien Williams.
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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby TB3falcons » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:19 pm

Got a 2020 1st and a mid 2019 2nd for Damien. Feel like the value was there considering I picked up for $1 right as the Hunt news broke.
16 Team PPR(.5 for RBs)/RetY/Balanced IDP League (QB,RB,2WR,TE,4FLX,PK,PN,DT,2DE,3LB,2CB,2S,1DFLX) 2018 & 2019 LC
QB- Mahomes, Ryan
RB- Gordon, Ingram, Swift, Gore, Hyde, Ogunbowale
WR- Hopkins, KAllen, Lockett, Golladay, Fitz, Edelman, MJones, Crowder, Cobb, Claypool, AGG, Miller (CHI), Humphries, Conley, David Moore, Demarcus Robinson, Gordon :boohoo:
TE- Olsen, Ian Thomas, Njoku
PK- Butker
PN- Cooke
DT- CJones, Ogunjobi, Kinlaw
DE- Hunter, DLaw, Young, Anderson, Turay
LB- Littleton, Mosley, D. Davis, Schobert, Bush, AJ Johnson, Walker, Evans, Burgess
CB- C Davis, Ward, Murphy-Bunting
S- JJ3, Walker, Williams, Rapp, Parks

Taxi: Oliver, Laird, Collier, Cominsky, Phillips, JAXWilliams, Harris, Willis

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:33 pm

TB3falcons wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:19 pm
Got a 2020 1st and a mid 2019 2nd for Damien. Feel like the value was there considering I picked up for $1 right as the Hunt news broke.
That's a haul man. Very nice.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19 Champion

QB: Tannehill, Brees
RB: Kamara, CMC, Sanders, Davis, Murray, Scott
WR: Julio, Hill, KA, Hamler
TE: Kelce, Kittle

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Multiple Scorgasms » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:59 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:02 pm
I studied Damien quite a bit a few years ago, when Jay Ajayi was a rookie and I had shares. I concluded Damien's a plus pass-catcher, but on the Miami tape he was an indecisive runner between the tackles. Seemed to struggle with his vision. Nearly all of his quality carries were to the outside, where the daylight was obvious. It's hard for me to believe the player I saw in Miami for years isn't the real Damien Williams.
This is fair analysis, and yet all I can think is: coaching? Systems? I mean the Dolphins have a history of letting good players go and signing players after their best years and then getting nothing out of them. Look at how they wasted Drake this year.

I also dismissed the Chiefs' positive talk back in the offseason because of his Miami production, but they seemed to see something, and it looks like they were right. Look at this 360 video view of his TD vs the Colts: http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/0a ... -True-View

He's got some legitimate talent IMO. Particularly in the speed/quickness area, something the Chiefs value highly. I don't think they'll be looking to replace it. Especially since any shifty/fast college backs usually suck at pass pro, while Williams is a vet and perfectly good at it, another important trait for obvious reasons.

I guess I'll bow out of this discussion now. I've said my piece. It's not like I think DW is the next Jamaal Charles. But hopefully he'll make me look smart this time next year.

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:05 pm

Multiple Scorgasms wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:59 pm
ninotoreS wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:02 pm
I studied Damien quite a bit a few years ago, when Jay Ajayi was a rookie and I had shares. I concluded Damien's a plus pass-catcher, but on the Miami tape he was an indecisive runner between the tackles. Seemed to struggle with his vision. Nearly all of his quality carries were to the outside, where the daylight was obvious. It's hard for me to believe the player I saw in Miami for years isn't the real Damien Williams.
This is fair analysis, and yet all I can think is: coaching? Systems? I mean the Dolphins have a history of letting good players go and signing players after their best years and then getting nothing out of them. Look at how they wasted Drake this year.
The Miami thing is something I meant to touch on as well. A bad organization isn't one I'm putting a lot of stock in with regards to player evaluation/utilization. If anything, it's at least kept Williams fresh.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19 Champion

QB: Tannehill, Brees
RB: Kamara, CMC, Sanders, Davis, Murray, Scott
WR: Julio, Hill, KA, Hamler
TE: Kelce, Kittle

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby ninotoreS » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:59 am

I will say Miami's ALY stat was bad 3 of 4 seasons Damien was in a Dolphins jersey (from 2017 back to 2014: 30th, 22nd, 28th, 9th). He had teammates on his chart who enjoyed intervals of great success while he was there, but maybe that was just down to them getting enough touches to mix enough good runs with the bad, whereas Williams never got enough to benefit his numbers the same way? If I browsed the gamelog correctly, Williams in four years as a Dolphin only received double-digit carries in a game twice (2014-11-02, 11 for 28 yards... 2017-11-19, 10 for 78 yards).
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