Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby XxBallMeBlazerxX » Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:11 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:42 pm
We'll obviously have a better idea on what his (Damien Williams) consensus value is once January ADP comes out. For now it is going to be everyones opinion based on their experiences & league prices.

I will say this though

(a) I actually have Damien Williams on a 16 team roster (DLF HOF) I took over. IE he was on the roster when I took the roster over.

(b) Even after Hunt situation went down - there was no interest in Williams in that league - and by the time Ware went down it was too late ..

Here is the trade finder for Williams

http://apps.dynastyleaguefootball.com/t ... ayer=16031

(c) We know that most owners are cheap & afraid to take risks.

(d) We know that most owners are not capable of thinking outside the box and projecting things like this (a player getting an opportunity after being stuck on practice or behind 2-3 players). Many people do not want to take that risk of stashing or purchasing said player until they hit - they want either the sure hit, or the fast profit.

Therefore yes you may think he is worth a 1st or an early 2nd - but unless you can actually get that price out of someone that is merely a potential value and not practical value. The fast profit may only be a late 2nd, or a 3rd or 4th depending on your leagues market.

In the end, if Damien Williams ends up like guys like Jeremy Langford, Thomas Rawls or Matt Jones - then their value crashes as quickly as it was deemed to have risen - so it is really up to every owner to find their comfort level and buy/sell at the price they are able to do so.

Waiting for that magicial 1st to appear in your inbox, because everyone said you should only sell him for a 1st, may never appear, and sometimes getting something (even if it is deemed little value) is worthwhile when you could end up where you started - with nothing (once you cut your Williams for the next best thing). I would not be surprised to see Alex Collins on waivers in typical leagues this off-season - and that may or may not be Williams fate 9 months from now.
Great post ArryIT

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby ninotoreS » Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:58 pm

Assuming he doesn't annihilate the postseason and win Super Bowl MVP or whatever and end up on the cover of Madden, etc etc, I'd take a 2020 2nd for Damien this offseason. Williams will be 27 to start 2019's season. Best case scenario I think, he's another Justin Forsett in the sense that he has a late career breakout and is thus fantasy relevant for 1-2 seasons.
Orenthal Shames wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 6:06 am
I'd like to see Corey Grant there myself, but with limited cap space i think they draft a rb as opposed to signing a more expensive free agent.
I doubt Grant would cost much. Probably more than a 3rd round rookie, though.
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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:04 am

ninotoreS wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:58 pm
Best case scenario I think, he's another Justin Forsett in the sense that he has a late career breakout and is thus fantasy relevant for 1-2 seasons.
Totally agree situation-wise. I'm in no way touting him as a long term answer, but hell even 1-2 years in that offense could pay huge dividends if that is the case. In a deep league where rbs are nearly impossible to acquire if you didn't draft them, holding is worth the potential losses imo.

I get he's been irrelevant up to this point in his career, but i don't see why people assume he is only a 3rd down back. He's plenty big enough with elite size adjusted speed.
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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Cowboysfan33 » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:29 pm

I don’t come around as much during the season but this is one topic that I’m very interested in, just because that Chiefs offense is so potent and any RB that’s getting a major of the work, is going to be really valuable, imo. First of all, I don’t think the Chiefs will use any top draft pick on a RB, mainly because their defense is so bad, they have to address that first and foremost. The other thing is, I always thought that Damien Williams looked like a good player in his limited time in Miami and even though I agree that he’s not going to be getting all of the work, he looks like he will be the starter going into the offseason and unless they do draft a RB high, which I doubt they will, he should be the guy to own in that backfield. If I’m contending, I probably wouldn’t even trade him for anything other than a 1st, in a rebuild, maybe a 2nd. I wouldn’t even consider a 3rd round offer. Personally, I was able to get him in three leagues and they are all contending teams(two won the championship) so I’m holding for sure, barring some crazy offer in the offseason.

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby XxBallMeBlazerxX » Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:22 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote:
Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:04 am
ninotoreS wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:58 pm
Best case scenario I think, he's another Justin Forsett in the sense that he has a late career breakout and is thus fantasy relevant for 1-2 seasons.
Totally agree situation-wise. I'm in no way touting him as a long term answer, but hell even 1-2 years in that offense could pay huge dividends if that is the case. In a deep league where rbs are nearly impossible to acquire if you didn't draft them, holding is worth the potential losses imo.

I get he's been irrelevant up to this point in his career, but i don't see why people assume he is only a 3rd down back. He's plenty big enough with elite size adjusted speed.
He’s 225?? but he doesn’t play like it. From what I remember, he wasn’t very effective running between the tackles when he played in Miami and he is not someone that is going to lower his shoulder when taking on a defender. I think he also had a hard time hanging onto the ball.

Holding him just might be worth it. That is up to whoever owns him to decide.

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby ArrylT » Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:55 pm

Elroypedro wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:04 pm
Agreed. In my leagues I can almost always roster my 1st round pick, usually my 2nd, and rarely if ever my 3rd and 4th. Plenty of other teams in my league can but I think I just am better at roster management

I have Damien Williams and I would value him at late 1st/early 2nd right now. He won me two leagues including my main big money league(in my sig) this year. In another league I lost in the ship to the Damien owner. Looking back I would have traded every 2019 pick I had in that league to get him, because it would have meant a championship. People are way overvaluing their draft picks if they want their 1st round pick over that
I am going to have to strongly disagree based mainly on timing, about overvaluing their draft picks.

Absolutely - if you're in late October or mid November going into the playoffs and want to add a Damien Williams to your roster, and spend a 1st or 2nd doing so - I can see how that makes sense.

However there is a reason they say hindsight is 20/20 and basically you are supposing that D. Williams is going to be in 2019 exactly what he was down the stretch in 2018. There is simply too much time / window between now and next November for any of a variety of issues to crop up. I am not going to go into talent or anything - just that every year there are players whose situation/health/opportunity change so much that their production is vastly different.

On the other hand we do know that the closer to the draft or the later in the off-season the better

(a) the value of the draft pick

(b) we understand the intentions of NFL Teams

and

(c) we have a better idea of what Damien Williams value will be

So no I do not think owners are overvaluing their draft picks if they are choosing not to spend a 1st on Williams at the moment - rather they are waiting to see more information so that the risk of such a cost is not prohibitive or detrimental.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sun Dec 30, 2018 7:32 pm

Ware was inactive after practicing all week. Damien got the bulk of carries when it was still a game. Darrel got cleanup duty.
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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby ninotoreS » Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:56 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote:
Sun Dec 30, 2018 7:32 pm
Damien got the bulk of carries when it was still a game. Darrel got cleanup duty.
Interesting. I didn't see the game, so from the box-score I assumed they split drives.

Ware's apparent demotion I knew about. Poor Spencer; I suppose this is the second time now he's been Wally Pipped.
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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Bo Jackson » Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:09 pm

I just traded DW for a 2020 and Curtis Samuel. Samuel was a throw in because he needed to make room. So really just the 2020 pick.

Rather sell now than get nothing later. If he becomes the lead back next season, oh well. I'll take the gamble
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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Vcize » Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:26 pm

Bo Jackson wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:09 pm
I just traded DW for a 2020 and Curtis Samuel. Samuel was a throw in because he needed to make room. So really just the 2020 pick.

Rather sell now than get nothing later. If he becomes the lead back next season, oh well. I'll take the gamble
A 2020 what rounder?
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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby hockeyBjj » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:48 pm

Damien Williams opening TD for KC in the playoffs

He's doing his best to make it awfully difficult to replace him based off production and performance. Nice little jump cut at the 4 to dodge two defenders and get into endzone
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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Jigga94 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:00 pm

hockeyBjj wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:48 pm
Damien Williams opening TD for KC in the playoffs

He's doing his best to make it awfully difficult to replace him based off production and performance. Nice little jump cut at the 4 to dodge two defenders and get into endzone
I see West out there. Didn't know he was even still around haha Williams looks good though
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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby ninotoreS » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:18 pm

20+ touches this game and counting (18 carries) with 8 minutes left. Clear feature-back usage. This is a development I've been waiting to see. Wasn't confident it would happen, because I have my doubts Damien is really a workhorse-capable 3-down RB. If KC thinks otherwise, I must upgrade Damien's speculative '19 value. edit: 22 carries now. Darrel is the next closest RB, with 2 carries. Workhorse, check.

In other news, bad weather sure torpedoed Luck. Not so much Mahomes.
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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Bot101 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:56 pm

Why did I drop Damien Williams when the season ended.... I didnt even consider him an option in 2019.

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Badkins1121 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:58 pm

30 touches for 154 yards and a TD. Hope he keeps it up next week!


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