Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby XxBallMeBlazerxX » Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:47 pm

Orenthal Shames wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 12:29 pm
XxBallMeBlazerxX wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:38 am
TB3falcons wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:46 am
What is Williams’ value predraft? Sell high window depending on how he does in the playoffs?
His value, I would say 3rd or 4th rounder. Maybe a 2nd to a desperate, naive owner. His sell high window would be now. I like Damien Williams but he isn’t a feature back. He will likely play a compliment piece in a committee (something like Chris Thompson) until he is eased out or be an extra body for the backfield. But who knows for sure until the start of next season. Andy Reid knows how to get the most out of his running backs.
Couldn't disagree more. A 3rd or 4th is nearly worthless in a deeper league, or most leagues honestly.

His isn't the long term answer but if, and it's still a big if at this point, Williams gets the lead role, within this system I don't see how he isn't a top 15 rb in 2019. He has the size and athleticism to be a factor in this system.

Holding to find out is worth losing out on a late round pick personally, but to each his own.
3rd or 4th rounder is more than what he was worth 3 games ago...

If you want to take that risk then more power to ya brother. I hope it works out for ya. Just saying, expecting more than that for a soon to be 27 year old running back who was irrelevant before 3 games ago probably isn’t going to happen. I am willing to bet you that Damien Williams will not be a top 15 rb next year.

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby XxBallMeBlazerxX » Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:50 pm

kmbryant09 wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:30 pm
XxBallMeBlazerxX wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:38 am
TB3falcons wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:46 am
What is Williams’ value predraft? Sell high window depending on how he does in the playoffs?
His value, I would say 3rd or 4th rounder. Maybe a 2nd to a desperate, naive owner. His sell high window would be now. I like Damien Williams but he isn’t a feature back. He will likely play a compliment piece in a committee (something like Chris Thompson) until he is eased out or be an extra body for the backfield. But who knows for sure until the start of next season. Andy Reid knows how to get the most out of his running backs.
How can this be his sell high window if you'd sell for a 3rd or 4th rounder? Makes no sense...
Because before 3 games ago, Williams was worth little to nothing.

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:53 pm

Unless you play in a small league or IDP, a 4th rounder isn't even an asset. You might as well just place him on waivers at that price. He's an RB who will have a notable role in a high scoring offense. You could make much better use of that than a 4th.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:55 pm

XxBallMeBlazerxX wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:47 pm
Orenthal Shames wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 12:29 pm
XxBallMeBlazerxX wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:38 am


His value, I would say 3rd or 4th rounder. Maybe a 2nd to a desperate, naive owner. His sell high window would be now. I like Damien Williams but he isn’t a feature back. He will likely play a compliment piece in a committee (something like Chris Thompson) until he is eased out or be an extra body for the backfield. But who knows for sure until the start of next season. Andy Reid knows how to get the most out of his running backs.
Couldn't disagree more. A 3rd or 4th is nearly worthless in a deeper league, or most leagues honestly.

His isn't the long term answer but if, and it's still a big if at this point, Williams gets the lead role, within this system I don't see how he isn't a top 15 rb in 2019. He has the size and athleticism to be a factor in this system.

Holding to find out is worth losing out on a late round pick personally, but to each his own.
3rd or 4th rounder is more than what he was worth 3 games ago...

If you want to take that risk then more power to ya brother. I hope it works out for ya. Just saying, expecting more than that for a soon to be 27 year old running back who was irrelevant before 3 games ago probably isn’t going to happen. I am willing to bet you that Damien Williams will not be a top 15 rb next year.
I'm not confident he is either, but willing to roll the dice at the cost of a 3rd or 4th. Neither Ware or Hunt were special talents. I want the lead rb in that system. Period.

Williams has been a rb1 the last two weeks given the opprtunity. He's big enough with solid pass catching and athleticism to be the lead dog for the short term.

I'm not opposed to selling, but selling for a 3rd or 4th is just bad process. You have a better chance of him being productive in 2019 vs a late round pick producing anything whatsoever.
Last edited by Orenthal Shames on Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19 Champion

QB: Tannehill, Brees
RB: Kamara, CMC, Sanders, Davis, Murray, Scott
WR: Julio, Hill, KA, Hamler
TE: Kelce, Kittle

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Jigga94 » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:11 pm

I think he was easily worth a 4th a few games ago... I think this guy just overvalues picks. If there are people saying Ballage is worth a late 1st... Williams will easily also be worth a late 1st if he's the starter there
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - [b]14 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones
RB: JT, Mostert, Gaskin, Dillon, Mattison, Snell, McKissic
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston (IR), Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.05-1.10, 2, 3

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - [b]20 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Minshew, Trubisky
RB: Saquon (IR), Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt, Penny (IR), Snell, Wilkins
WR: AJB, DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, C. Davis, C. Samuel, Mooney, Lazard, G. Davis
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Irv, Tonyan
2021: 1.03, 2, 2, 3, 3
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby XxBallMeBlazerxX » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:17 pm

Cameron Giles wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:53 pm
Unless you play in a small league or IDP, a 4th rounder isn't even an asset. You might as well just place him on waivers at that price. He's an RB who will have a notable role in a high scoring offense. You could make much better use of that than a 4th.
So keep him. No one is twisting your arm to trade him. That’s just my opinion of his value. I’ve actually had a couple hits in the 3rd/4th round the past couple years so it’s not the worst thing ever if you do your homework.

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Seventy5 » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:19 pm

Interesting thing to note for those who aren't aware of his history, but Damien Williams was already another one of those 'what could have been....' talented prospects coming out of college, so this is interesting for me.

I owned him in a deep devy league while he was in college (Oklahoma) and there were some who thought Williams had feature back potential at the next level. He was then kicked off the team in 2012 or 2013 for....I can't seem to remember what happened but something to do with team rules, and then he went undrafted the following year but was a 'name' FA rookie signing with Miami.

He has flashed here and there over the years, so this--to me--is kind of like an Isaiah Crowell / Antonio Callaway -like underrated talent having a potentially elite situation fall into their lap. If they don't sign an FA, draft a rookie highly, and he is able to lock in and focus on his game...
DLF HOF League | 16 Team | 1PPR | 1QB-2WR/RB/2FL-1TE:
QB: Andrew Luck | Deshaun Watson | Taysom
RB: Saquon Barkley | Alvin Kamara | Melvin Gordon | Joe Mixon
WR: Tyreek Hill | Diggs | Watkins | Mike Williams | Claypool | Hamler | Agholor | Mooney
TE: Ebron | Tonyan | Asiasi | Reed
2021: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3

12 Team | 1PPR 2QB-2RB-2WR-1TE-1FL | Rookie/Devy League:
QB: Aaron Rodgers | Matthew Stafford | Daniel Jones
RB: Nick Chubb | LeVeon Bell | Melvin Gordon | Leonard Fournette | AP
WR: Tyreek Hill | OBJ | Diggs | Thielen | CeeDee | Hamler | Claypool | Laviska
TE: Ebron | Everett | Higbee
2021: 2, 3, 3, 4

12 Team | 1PPR 1QB-2RB-2WR-1TE-1FL-1SuperFlex | Rebuilding:
QB: Matt Ryan | Joe Burrow | Taysom | JLove
RB: Nick Chubb | JK Dobbins | D'Andre Swift
WR1: C Ridley | Higgins | Pittman | Mike Williams | Mimz | N'Keal
WR2: Diggs | Jeudy | Aiyuk | Marquise Brown | Cooks | Duvernay | Van Jefferson
TE: George Kittle | Evan Engram | Everett
2021: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby XxBallMeBlazerxX » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:36 pm

Jigga94 wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:11 pm
I think he was easily worth a 4th a few games ago...
How so?

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Jigga94 » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:40 pm

XxBallMeBlazerxX wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:36 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:11 pm
I think he was easily worth a 4th a few games ago...
How so?
He had just as good of a shot to take over as KC lead back as anyone else. We all know Ware isn't a world beater. Honestly as long as they dont beat women they can be a productive RB on that offense. Lol I'm not sure if you're trolling or just really value 4th rounders
2QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, FLEX - PPR - [b]14 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, J. Allen, Baker, D. Jones
RB: JT, Mostert, Gaskin, Dillon, Mattison, Snell, McKissic
WR: Tyreek, DJM, Jeudy, Hollywood, Cooks, Mims, Hardman, Preston (IR), Parris (IR)
TE: Andrews, Fant, Henry
2021: 1.05-1.10, 2, 3

2QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3FLEX - PPR - [b]20 Keepers[/b]
QB: Mahomes, Ryan, Minshew, Trubisky
RB: Saquon (IR), Jacobs, Dobbins, Hunt, Penny (IR), Snell, Wilkins
WR: AJB, DJM, Chark, Ruggs, Hardman, Mike Will, C. Davis, C. Samuel, Mooney, Lazard, G. Davis
TE: Andrews, Henry, Gesicki, Irv, Tonyan
2021: 1.03, 2, 2, 3, 3
2022: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby XxBallMeBlazerxX » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:53 pm

Jigga94 wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:40 pm
XxBallMeBlazerxX wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:36 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:11 pm
I think he was easily worth a 4th a few games ago...
How so?
He had just as good of a shot to take over as KC lead back as anyone else. We all know Ware isn't a world beater. Honestly as long as they dont beat women they can be a productive RB on that offense. Lol I'm not sure if you're trolling or just really value 4th rounders
So 26 year old Damien Williams who has done little so far in his career and was just added for the first time this season to the active roster to be the 3rd rb on the depth chart was worth a 3rd/4th round pick...

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby TB3falcons » Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:21 pm

I think selling high would be for a late 1st, wouldn't even counter an offer of receiving a 3rd for him. I'm with most though, I'm not sure he'll be the lead back next year, but he's the only contender for the role on the roster now. I'd imagine the Chiefs will use a 3rd-5th pick next year to add some competition. I don't think Darrel Williams is a competitor, but he is on my taxi just in case as well.
16 Team PPR(.5 for RBs)/RetY/Balanced IDP League (QB,RB,2WR,TE,4FLX,PK,PN,DT,2DE,3LB,2CB,2S,1DFLX) 2018 & 2019 LC
QB- Mahomes, Ryan
RB- Gordon, Ingram, Swift, Gore, Hyde, Ogunbowale
WR- Hopkins, KAllen, Lockett, Golladay, Fitz, Edelman, MJones, Crowder, Cobb, Claypool, AGG, Miller (CHI), Humphries, Conley, David Moore, Demarcus Robinson, Gordon :boohoo:
TE- Olsen, Ian Thomas, Njoku
PK- Butker
PN- Cooke
DT- CJones, Ogunjobi, Kinlaw
DE- Hunter, DLaw, Young, Anderson, Turay
LB- Littleton, Mosley, D. Davis, Schobert, Bush, AJ Johnson, Walker, Evans, Burgess
CB- C Davis, Ward, Murphy-Bunting
S- JJ3, Walker, Williams, Rapp, Parks

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby ArrylT » Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:42 pm

We'll obviously have a better idea on what his (Damien Williams) consensus value is once January ADP comes out. For now it is going to be everyones opinion based on their experiences & league prices.

I will say this though

(a) I actually have Damien Williams on a 16 team roster (DLF HOF) I took over. IE he was on the roster when I took the roster over.

(b) Even after Hunt situation went down - there was no interest in Williams in that league - and by the time Ware went down it was too late ..

Here is the trade finder for Williams

http://apps.dynastyleaguefootball.com/t ... ayer=16031

(c) We know that most owners are cheap & afraid to take risks.

(d) We know that most owners are not capable of thinking outside the box and projecting things like this (a player getting an opportunity after being stuck on practice or behind 2-3 players). Many people do not want to take that risk of stashing or purchasing said player until they hit - they want either the sure hit, or the fast profit.

Therefore yes you may think he is worth a 1st or an early 2nd - but unless you can actually get that price out of someone that is merely a potential value and not practical value. The fast profit may only be a late 2nd, or a 3rd or 4th depending on your leagues market.

In the end, if Damien Williams ends up like guys like Jeremy Langford, Thomas Rawls or Matt Jones - then their value crashes as quickly as it was deemed to have risen - so it is really up to every owner to find their comfort level and buy/sell at the price they are able to do so.

Waiting for that magicial 1st to appear in your inbox, because everyone said you should only sell him for a 1st, may never appear, and sometimes getting something (even if it is deemed little value) is worthwhile when you could end up where you started - with nothing (once you cut your Williams for the next best thing). I would not be surprised to see Alex Collins on waivers in typical leagues this off-season - and that may or may not be Williams fate 9 months from now.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Orenthal Shames » Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:44 pm

XxBallMeBlazerxX wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:53 pm
Jigga94 wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:40 pm
XxBallMeBlazerxX wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:36 pm


How so?
He had just as good of a shot to take over as KC lead back as anyone else. We all know Ware isn't a world beater. Honestly as long as they dont beat women they can be a productive RB on that offense. Lol I'm not sure if you're trolling or just really value 4th rounders
So 26 year old Damien Williams who has done little so far in his career and was just added for the first time this season to the active roster to be the 3rd rb on the depth chart was worth a 3rd/4th round pick...
Talent and situation are two different entities. Does anyone think CJA > Gurley bc in one game he's done things Gurley never has? No. But dismissing the situation altogether is equally foolish.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19 Champion

QB: Tannehill, Brees
RB: Kamara, CMC, Sanders, Davis, Murray, Scott
WR: Julio, Hill, KA, Hamler
TE: Kelce, Kittle

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Huh » Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:46 pm

Thirds and fourths? Over the years I have devalued picks to the point that I’m not moving any player on my roster for less than a second. Maaaaaybe a top third. I’ll trade and throw in thirds, fourths, and fifths all day and happily take them as throw ins, but if I own someone there’s a reason and I’ll take the loss if it doesn’t work out.

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Re: Spencer Ware (and rest of KC backfield) 2019 outlook

Postby Elroypedro » Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:04 pm

Huh wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:46 pm
Thirds and fourths? Over the years I have devalued picks to the point that I’m not moving any player on my roster for less than a second. Maaaaaybe a top third. I’ll trade and throw in thirds, fourths, and fifths all day and happily take them as throw ins, but if I own someone there’s a reason and I’ll take the loss if it doesn’t work out.
Agreed. In my leagues I can almost always roster my 1st round pick, usually my 2nd, and rarely if ever my 3rd and 4th. Plenty of other teams in my league can but I think I just am better at roster management

I have Damien Williams and I would value him at late 1st/early 2nd right now. He won me two leagues including my main big money league(in my sig) this year. In another league I lost in the ship to the Damien owner. Looking back I would have traded every 2019 pick I had in that league to get him, because it would have meant a championship. People are way overvaluing their draft picks if they want their 1st round pick over that
Team 1
10 team .5 PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1Flex

QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: McCaffery, Guice, D Williams, Breida, Drake, Penny, S Ware, R Jones, J Adams, I Smith
WR: A Brown, Jeffery, Robinson, Ridley, Pettis, Miller, Shepard, Callaway, MVS, Washington
TE: Kelce, Herndon

Picks:
2019 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10
2020 1, 2, 3, 4

*2018 Champ*


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