Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

General discussion and team advice concerning Redraft & Keeper leagues.
User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9007
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

Postby ArrylT » Fri Jul 16, 2021 8:03 pm

I was pleasantly surprised to get accepted to participate in Scott Fish Bowl XI. If you're unfamiliar here is a link:

https://scottfishbowl.com/

But basically this is a large charity driven invitational tournament involving hundreds of fantasy football analysts, writers & fans.

Anyways the theme this year was music, and one of my favorite bands (or rather a duo) is Daft Punk, so I was thrilled to get into the Daft Punk Division.

If you're curious about the size and scope of this years tournament - this website is a great tool to allow you to see all the different drafts.

https://fantasyadhd.com/sfb/


Anyways for fun, I have decided to rank the draft results of our division. I am ranking them from 12 to 1, but not in order of how they'll finish but rather from least to most likely - at least according to my perspective - to win the division based on the current snapshot.

Obviously the winner will be due to more than just the draft on paper but their skill on waivers, making lineup decisions and of course a nice helping of luck. So it will be fun to see exactly how inaccurate my little take will be. Who knows maybe the 11th or 9th ranked team will end up being the one that advances.

Anyways here is a list of the current rosters (obviously the rosters will change over the course of the season).

https://www73.myfantasyleague.com/2021/ ... 60340&O=07

Each review will comprise of 3 parts.

(a) the ranking & a short synopsis
(b) a longer explanation
(c) positional commentary tying into explanation
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9007
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

Postby ArrylT » Fri Jul 16, 2021 8:10 pm

This years format:

Draft quirk:

3rd Round Reversal


Total Starters: 11
# of Roster Spots: 22
Number of Starting QBs: 1-2
Number of Starting RBs: 2-6
Number of Starting WRs: 3-7
Number of Starting TEs: 1-5
Number of Starting PKs: 0-4


Key Scoring info:

6 TD / -4 Int
0.5 Completion
-1.0 Incompletion
-2 for Pick 6
-1 per sack

.1 rush attempt

.5 ppr
1.0 te ppr

.5 ppfd
1.0 te ppfd

Length of Field Goal Made 0-100 .1 points each
Field Goals Missed -3
Extra Points Missed -1

Update - some very interesting twists come playoff time

https://scottfishbowl.com/2021/rules.php
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9007
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

Postby ArrylT » Fri Jul 16, 2021 8:58 pm

#12 - @IanStewart

In a Nutshell - Too much boom/bust

Analysis:

Far be it for me to be a guru on what does or does not work to win a league. I think there are many ways to win, especially in a format as the one designed for SFB. However I do know that I believe you need some safe floor production. Pretend this is baseball for a moment, and think back to Moneyball. You get more consistent run scoring from walks and OBP than you do from HR, over a season. In any one game you can have a game winning HR yes, but you can also have a hefty amount of strikeouts. So basically, imho, this roster, contains way too many players, who if they produce not to their worst case scenario, but even just middle of the road, simply will be unlikely to provide enough scoring. Also Week 7 could be a killer week.

QB: Where Aaron Rodgers was drafted, there is just too much riding on him returning to GB. Lawrence could be the next Luck or Peyton Manning but even they were not league winners in their rookie campaign. Absolute best case scenario for Lawrence is likely QB 10-12, and while I am a bigger fan than Teddy Bridgewater than most - is he the guy you want to slot in place of Aaron Rodgers or Lawrence?

RB: Perhaps the strength of the roster, as both Ekeler & Harris have RB 1 upside (and many would argue an RB1 floor). However the Chargers keep showing that they do not want Ekeler to be the focal point of their RB. Sooner or later other RBs will take enough of the touches to limit that upside, assuming he can handle a full season workload, which I believe he has done 1x in 4 years.

WR: No true WR1 or even a safe WR2 apart from Cooper Kupp. Obviously I am aware of Diontae Johnson - but I said safe WR2 - can you honestly look at his situation and feel he is a safe floor bet? Upside yes - I can make a case he will get 120+ targets, but I can also make a case he'll be in the 80-100 range if Claypool takes a step forward, Juju returns to full health & they increase emphasis on RB. I actually like the Rondale Moore & Devonta Smith picks (although not the Smith cost of acquisition) but they are guys one is relying on for their upside, not for their proven production. But in a start 3 WR and lack of safe options at WR if they do not produce ...

TE: Solid TE corps, but the cost of getting Andrews (#45 overall) may have allowed value at other positions to slip past. However that may be nitpicking. It could be that the TEs will cover the slack of the other positions boom/bust - but we'll have to wait and see.

PK: I am a Raiders fan so I think the Carlson pick was underrated in terms of overall for PK - but just not top #5 PK. Probably someone who could have been added via waivers.

As mentioned above - this team is heavy on the boom/bust. If everything goes to plan and all the boom occurs, then they'll perhaps be a top 4 team. But think of it like the electoral college, once you start losing key states, there are only so many paths to victory. I just do not see enough key states (aka safe stud producers) to carry this team to the White House. So not a bad roster - just not a roster I can comfortably say this is a team I want leading me to victory.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9007
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

Postby ArrylT » Fri Jul 16, 2021 9:54 pm

#11 - @ProFootballPSI

In a Nutshell - Too Much What If and Where is the security blanket?

Analysis:

I think this will be a theme, at least for the first few teams you see ranked. Just too much bust potential if things go wrong. And like they say no plan outlives the battlefield - which is apt not just for the draft, but also for the season. IE all the upside you project for players gets swiftly destroyed within the first few weeks. Which is where you need guys to hold down the fort, and others to come from the shadows to shine. Cannot see that here, at least not at this moment. Simulators and trial runs are used to get practice and help you figure out what can go wrong - so this team sort of resembles that. A What if I did this and this and lets see what happens ...

QB: I think Zero QB is a solid strategy, but better suited for other formats - whether best ball, or dynasty (where you can trade to fill holes), but not so much for a SF invitational in a division filled with pretty sharp owners. I can admit the guts to go this path, while still thinking that it could easily put a team in a hole too deep to climb out of. Now if Big Ben is more Tom Brady than Drew Brees, then this could be a surprise contender. But if Roethlisberger, like Brees (and Manning before him), continues to be on his last gasp- and not due talent but health limiting ability (Brees aDOT was 6 yard I believe in 2020) then he'll likely be a bottom 16 QB than a top 16. Will any of the other QBs actually get starts when it is critical they do so (ie down the stretch when you need them)?

RB: I do not dislike Cam Akers. Not one bit. Simply like many, I dislike the cost of acquisition. If you draft an RB in the 1st 3 rounds of a SF league, you're basically projecting them as a safe RB1. At least Ekeler has shown he has the receiving upside that (like Kamara) he does not need to be a 3 down back. Akers has yet to show he is even a safe 2 Down back. Key word is safe*. However Gibson and all the other RBs, do add a little bit of a safety net, assuming Gibsons turf toe doesnt delay him into training camp, Fournette can force a time share with RoJo, Drake is more than COP and Gurley gets signed. The safest RB on the team might be Gus Edwards.

WR: For all the talk about annointing Kyle Pitts as a locked and loaded elite TE, can it not be the same for Ja'Marr Chase. The 1st WR of rookie drafts in recent history (AJ Brown / Calvin Ridley is the WR1 in hindsight not at time) has never been the bona fide best WR that year. Have to go back to 2015 and Amari Cooper. Chase is perhaps the the safest bet for a Rookie WR to produce but is is he safe enough at the ADP? Lets assume Burrow is Big Ben and Chase is Claypool, well he still has Higgins (Diontae) and Boyd (Juju) to deal with and they finished 20th (Claypool), 24th (Diontae) and 18th (Juju) with Big Ben having top 3 PAs. Now yes Chase is not Claypool, but neither is it likely any of the 3 in Cincy is a lock for more than 120 targets so better talent/efficiency is countered by less volume. Anyways apart from Chase & McLaurin this is a whole lot of lets see which WRs stick to the wall, and which we'll have to toss aside and pray the next man up is hopefully better than a kicker. :ewink:

TE: The bread & butter of this team. And a bold move if I do say so myself. Assuming Waller & Kittle feast, then this team will likely be playoff potential rather than middle of the pack struggling to break through. I cannot blame going Waller at 1.04 overall, since it is not a safe bet Waller would have made it to the 2nd round, much less back to him at 2.09, but I dont have to agree it was a good cost of acquisition. I think the difference between a guy like Kelce & Gronk vs. guys like Kittle & Waller is that the former had elite fantasy QBs to feed them and others. Kittle & Waller have only ever done it when only they got fed by good (not great) QBs. And teams adding weapons at WR (or trying to) doesnt suggest they WANT to feature the TE as the focal point but rather HAD to. So Upside similar to Kelce yes, Floor as safe? We'll see. Fant was a great insurance add though.

They say go big or go home. This team is trying to go big but could very well as easily go home. Swinging for the fences leads to HRs - but remember that the odds are not favorable they'll happen with enough frequency. Ergo why 11th on my list of most likely teams to win the division.

* - Fun fact: Not including QBs, during Akers stretch IE the period where Akers was at his most productive he was still the 25th best producer during that 9 week period. IE 24 players not including QBs (and this is SF) outscored Akers during his best stretch. If I count only the actual season (weeks 11 to 17) then that goes to 16 RBs, 36 WRs & 5 TEs. So Akers was the 58th highest scoring player in PPR over that 7 week period.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9007
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

Postby ArrylT » Sat Jul 17, 2021 6:53 pm

#10 - @Raaaaaaaandy

In A Nutshell - 3 Studs, Plenty of pontential Duds and WR deficient

Analysis - For most owners my analysis is usually longer than their team name - but I am not sure if that is the case here. If you had to take a drink for every A in his name you might be drinking for days. :lol: Had to start off with a joke because I hate having to put a Chubb team this low in my rankings for potential winner. Why why why did you take Chubb? :P Anyways like I have mentioned, most of the teams lowest ranked have something in common - just too much bust potential imho. Again this does NOT mean they cannot or will not win - just that more things have to go in their favor than for other teams. So these are the teams with the higher golf handicap.

QB: I assume everyone paid attention to the QB scoring including the fact that Completions are .5 while Incompletions are -1. That means for a QB like Hurts who was 77/148 he got 38.5 points for completions and -71 points for incompletions - so a net loss of 32.5 points. Now compare that to Matt Ryan 407/626 which meant he had 203.5 to -219 or a net loss of 15.5. Now remember that Hurts only started 6 games, which meant he was losing an owner (using SFB11 scoring) approx 5.5 points a game from his Completion % versus a Matt Ryan who barely lost 1 point. The point being the worst a QBs completion percentage the worst it will hit in the scoring. Hurts is going to have to improve his completion percentage from 51% to at least 60% if he is going to (a) not bet that costly and (b) keep his job. Atm his upside is pretty much solely on his rushing upside - and historically that is not a safe bet - especially as QB13 drafted. Even Josh Allen (who was also drafted by this owner) did not reach 60% in his 2nd year and in this scoring was QB15 in his 2nd year. So assuming Hurts IS the next Josh Allen - can his upside truly be much higher than mid QB2? I will never tell someone not to swing at the fences to get a HR but again Hurts just seems like such a low odds bet to actually live up to cost. We shall see!

RB: Absolutely no complaints about this RB room. I can disagree with the lesser pieces but both Carson and Chubb are safe floor producers with tangible upside at the cost acquired.

WR: So if Josh Allen & Chubb are the first 2 studs - then yes Justin Jefferson could be the 3rd. But that is some heavy lifting for him to do. There are other WRs who I can see have WR2 or WR3 potential, but none that are safe bets to have a WR2 floor. Sutton probably has a safe WR3 floor but that offence is going to be hard to project. Everyone else is basically pray & hope they can get it done.

TE: So I mentioned earlier that teams adding weapons at WR (or trying to) doesnt suggest they WANT to feature the TE as the focal point but rather HAD to. I think Logan Thomas is a mini Darren Waller. Which sounds good but could be bad for both. Basically Logan Thomas 2020 could be Darren Waller 2021 (which is not good for cost of acquisition) and Logan Thomas 2021 is not going to be Darren Waller 2020, but rather likely a lesser version of Logan Thomas 2020. This is not a knock on Logan Thomas just that his opportunity is potentially diminished by the addition of Curtis Samuel, another step forward by Terry McLaurin and a healthy Humphries could be good for 60-80 targets too. So I can see Logan Thomas as in the group of potential TE1s but not a top 6 performer. Jared Cook is a solid underrated pick and tbh I could see him being as productive as Thomas but at a much cheaper cost.

In the end this is a team who has enough studs that they'll win some games - but too much could go wrong for them to be safely projected as a playoff contender, much less a division champ.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9007
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

Postby ArrylT » Sat Jul 17, 2021 7:28 pm

#9 - MikeMeUpp

In A Nutshell - Is Kyler Murray Lost In Translation? Can the rest of the team speak victory?

Analysis - We're entering a tier of teams that could easily go one way or the other depending on variables. So the difference between 9th and 5th is a lot less to me than 9th and 11th. This team is on the edge of I could have been a contender (feel free to do your best Marlon Brando). However it does have a handicap of sorts with plenty of late season bye weeks. Weeks 12 & 14 specifically will need plenty of other guys to pick up the slack.

QB: If you're playing this team then you probably want Lock to be a starter, because if they are tempted to start him, you can be a better lock at winning. If Elway was still running everything, I'd be more apt to predict a Lock starter season but their new GM seems reasonably competent and I believe Teddy can win the day. Which is good because Lock had 4 starts of negative points and 2 of -10 or worse. Maybe Lock can take a step forward but anything similar to 2020 will be ugly for this team fantasy wise. Moving on to Kyler Murray - I am not going to tell you he is going to bust. I am not going to even say he cannot be a QB1. But I can tell you I see a better than 0% chance he is a bottom 6 QB1 than a top 6 QB1. Why? Because I am a firm believer that every QB hits a plateau at some point and gets figured out by the other teams - can be anywhere from 6 games in to 18-24 for the better QBs with better game scripts (Mayfield Yr2, Goff Yr 3, Wentz) ... Now the elite QBs take another step forward. So if Kyler does and with the added potential weapons this could be a Chicken Little the sky is falling situation. But if you look at Murray down the stretch in 2020 it certainly seems like he hit that wall. Nor do they have a very favorable schedule atm (but we know that is only based on looking at 2020 teams and projecting their defensive capabilities in 2021 versus actually KNOWING). Just noting that first half of 2020 Kyler Murray was a top 3-5 QB while second half Kyler Murray was barely top 10 (and a QB2 from Week 11 onward).

RB: I do not think David Montgomery is going to have a big decline due to Tarik Cohen, but I do think he is in for some regression. However that is baked into the cost so well done. And Etienne 2 picks ahead of Myles G. is gasking for praise. :wink: I do not have to love this RB corps but I can like its potential to keep the team going.

WR: Tyreek, Calvin & DK - hard to bet against that. And I wont. Assuming those 3 live up to projections and Kyler Murray takes that next step then this is a playoff bound team (but eliminated Week 14?). And lots of upside WRs. Honestly one of the best WR drafts. :thumbup: :clap:

TE: Most teams have a potential achilles and this could be it. I love all 3 TEs actually in dynasty. However I am not looking at it through my normal dynasty lens but rather a re-draft focus based on league scoring and cost of acquisition. Everett has to live up to post-sleeper hype. Kmet has to show one of the all-time greats at TE he is ready and Engram has to stay healthy AND get enough targets in a murky situation. So this could be a balloon lifting the team, or an anchor weighing it down.

This team was initially higher on my rankings list until I noticed the bye weeks, and lack of support behind Kyler Murray at QB. I mean maybe Lance is a stud from the get go, but maybe not and if Lock is starting and gives you a -10 performance. :surprised: :surprised: That combined with the potential for things to go awry at TE puts it at the back of my contested middle tier.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9007
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

Postby ArrylT » Sun Jul 18, 2021 7:13 pm

#8 - @MattFFDynasty

In A Nutshell - The RB may make you drool but the TE & Week 13 bye week not so cool

Analysis - As mentioned already there is not a big difference between 9th and 5th, so it all comes down to preferences. Once again I had to go with the current snapshot, and the late bye week of critical players could be a key factor. This team is really strong at 1 position (imho), solid at a couple of others and pretty much in need of a hail mary - I think you can guess which position. :lol: In the end this team will definitely be in the running for the playoffs if they can solve their issues via waivers.

QB - I've already commented on QBs hitting a wall - whether Herbert hits a plateau in 2021 or 2022 we'll have to wait and see. But at cost of acquisition for a pretty safe QB1 most people would be happy. The concerns will be whether the other 2 can be helpful from the SF spot / bye week replacement. Fitzmagic is a nickname for a reason, but as we all know magic can be unreliable and so can Fitzpatrick. He's always going to be good enough to get starts but the last full season was 6 years ago, and a full season of his gunslinger mentality will lead to double digit Ints and potential pick 6s. Daniel Jones - well he scored less in the 14 games he started than Dak did in the 4.5 he played. So make of that what you will. Will he step up? Was it due to the lack of weapons and if so then does that mean he only the type of QB whose game is raised by his team and not the type that raises the team (ie A-Rod with the same roster last year = 10 wins?).

RB - This will be the position that carries this team to the playoffs if all goes accordingly. Jones, Kamara AND Murray (nice add) and maybe Sanders is a Year 3 Westbrook type. If so then the questions and average production elsewhere won't be a concern. Well until they get to the playoffs at least. But my projections are based on current snapshot not what the owner does with the team via waivers & such. And this is pretty much a top notch RB squad with a few boom potential guys in Mostert and Evans (if something happens to the King).

WR - A solid but not spectacular group, which is to be expected due to the emphasis at RB and snagging a QB1. However there are a lot of late bye Week WRs, and one thing that is a norm (ie usually happens) is that the later the season the harder it is to find reliable WR. Zero RB came in part (imo) from being able to get RBs late in the season for a couple of weeks. Zero WR comes from getting WRs late in the draft with safe floors and potential to boom (imo) - not finding WRs in waivers late season who are WR1s. WR3s maybe. And 2 3rds of the group is on bye later on (plus 2 of their best RBs).

TE - I doubt I need to tell people the low probability of TE1 seasons from rookie TEs - I mean half the industry probably expects Kyle Pitts not to achieve a TE1 season - so what chance does Freiermuth have, especially with all - but its a late pick and easily thrown back if he doesnt strike gold. Maybe Dawson Knox will be a reliable high end TE2. Maybe. But the play here imo was either hammer away at lottery picks (that kicker pick was better spent on another TE maybe?), or get a safe TE and pair with some boom/bust and well they went option C - pray Jonnu Smith is the answer. Go big or go home right?

So yeah, I foresee a lot of juggling coming up. Right now if this team makes the playoffs, they could still be a sitting duck Week XIV because they limped in and got into a matchup against a better balanced squad. Reminder to all of you listening from home and wondering if I am overly concerned - maybe I am - but this is a Start 11 - thats half the roster. And almost half their roster is on bye either Week 13 or 14 atm. I've added the scoring & playoffs format rules link to my 2nd post.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9007
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

Postby ArrylT » Sun Jul 18, 2021 7:46 pm

#7 - @Jack_Wynkoop

In A Nutshell - Too Much But Not Enough

Analysis - What? What does that mean? Can you be any more opaque? :lol: Simply put this is quite a decent roster - however that means while it has no real weaknesses it also has no real strengths. Maybe that works! But I think you can swing too far in either direction. IE too much balance is just as much of a challenge as overloading too much at 1 position. I have a hunch they may be torn in different directions trying to figure out where to patch holes, when they do appear, which they will. And honestly being middle of the pack when forced on the 1.01 (and the 2.12 & 3.12) is pretty good. Just not good enough to be a safe bet.

QB - If I had to pick a strength this would be it. Mahomes doh. Mayfield makes for a sneaky good QB2 if he continues to rebound. And if Watson plays (I doubt it but that is different from knowing he wont) then the SF position will cover for any deficiencies that crop up. I mean a potential league winner QB at the 10th round pick. Someone had to pull the trigger.

RB - A strength that is not a strength. Yay more cliches. :mrgreen: But you know what I mean. Conner, Mixon & Davis. Guys you want to be RB2s or have RB1 upside - but will they? Will Conner & Mixon actually play a full season? Atlanta has to add another RB right? Personally I am NOT saying they will - just that we do not know. Basically on paper this looks good - but paper champions are just that - they dont win in reality. So this could be a paper tiger rather than a real one.

WR - Will Diggs have some regression? Maybe, but not enough to knock out of WR1 consideration. And a healthy Beckham could give two WR1s for the price of 1. Higgins & Williams make for a nice potential WR3/Flex option. There is potential here. And some intriguing upside fliers. But apart from Diggs do you really dig the grouping? :think:

TE - Gronk & Pitts. The dethroned king and potential future king. Which will actually be the better bet? Thats not a knock - but rather a serious question. I actually think both have similar projections. The Arnold pick could be interesting if he follows up on a solid 2nd half 2020 - but that week 13 bye and new team makes it uncertain he'll be of any use later in the season. So this TE combo could be lethal but could also be perplexing.

So you see what I mean. Every position has its upside - but are you excited about any positional group outside of TE except maybe QB (or is it just Mahomes that is exciting)? Are you? All in all there is not anything to "hate" about this team, but it just does not seem very cohesive as a whole. Sometimes the sum is more than the parts and sometimes the parts are more impressive on their own than as a whole. Or maybe I am being too picky and they deserve to be 5th instead of 7th. Apologies for my gut saying that there seems something missing. This team could be a wildcard. :confused: :wtf: :think:
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9007
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

Postby ArrylT » Mon Jul 19, 2021 7:06 pm

#6 - @Professah

In A Nutshell - CMC To Victory and beyond or Swift to Defeat?

Analysis - Several players on this roster could be poised to take a step forward. Pretty solid at all positions save maybe TE. So why are they not ranked higher? First just a reminder that this is based on most likely to win the division, not 1-12 in wins/loss. Secondly, as alluded to in a previous post, paper tigers might just be paper tigers. This team looks good enough to make the playoffs, ergo it is in that middle tier of teams that have a good shot of doing so - but I still have some concerns, such as 3 key players on week 13 byes so it just did not make the top 4.

QB - I would consider this their strongest position, which in a SF format, is usually a good idea. I do not have to think Zach Wilson is a guaranteed stud to like the upside he could have. The cost of acquisition makes that quite palatable. In fact this could be the strongest Q group in the league if Dalton can hold off Fields. The Tannehill late bye could be a concern, but a small one.

RB - I think CMC should be fine, and definitely feel he has top 6 floor potential and #1 RB upside. I think the only concern is the later bye. I would have preferred a bye a little earlier due to the length of the season, plus with Tanny sharing the bye this could be a make or break week. No the RB I think was overly expensive was Deandre Swift. Obviously I can understand the cost for him and Akers is due to the upside we want to see. But like Akers there simply is not enough of a track record to feel comfortable that it is a sure thing. However we shall see. As long as he has mid RB2 production, I do not see it being a major issue - and there are a few other RBs with potential upside to mitigate.

WR - This WR group reminds me of the RB group from #7. You want to love them - but will you? There is not a single WR with a safe WR1 path. Yes I know they have Lamb. But honestly how is this different from the Steelers last year? 3 WRs eating just enough targets to keep any of them from being a WR1. Why is Lamb a safe bet but a Juju or Diontae or Claypool is not? Because the Cowboys are going to throw for 700+ attempts? Or because Cooper or Gallup are going to wither away? Evidence suggest otherwise to both. The Cowboys have Zeke also. Big Ben has 18 more TDs and similar yardage despite playing in 7 less games over the past 5 years. Yet every Cowboy cost more than every Steeler, even though the Steelers have a more recent history of passing volume. This is not a knock on Lamb just a reality check that he's not yet in a position to be a WR1 (which usually involves 130-140 targets min). Nor is Golladay, or Boyd or Godwin. Which is perfectly fine but also why this reminds me of that RB group. Basically a solid group of safe WR2/3 guys who might have unexpected WR1 weeks but we'll have to see it happen. Luckily this is a start 11 league otherwise there could be lots of teeth gnashing over who to start each week.

TE - Hooper could be underrated and therefore could anchor what is maybe an underwhelming group on paper but at the price paid could be solid, perhaps. Would probably replace Cox with someone else, but Wentz obviously has a history with TE and Cox could provide flex appeal maybe.

If I am being honest, if I believed in Swift, this probably would be more likely 5th or top 4. But I do not yet. Which to me makes this a Tannehill & CMC carry the load, with plenty of solid support team. Which will be fine to get the team to the playoffs. Again maybe I am being nitpicky, but when all the teams are pretty solid, you need to look a little closer and figure out what causes separation for those crucial inches.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9007
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

Postby ArrylT » Mon Jul 19, 2021 7:47 pm

#5 - @Wardyyy96

In A Nutshell - Prescott & Taylor can only take a team so far, so who else will step up?

Analysis - If this team fixes a few minor issues, then they would be a bump up to the top 4. This team could be better than it looks, but as is the case with many in this tier there will need to be some guys who will live up to the hype that have yet to show they can. When things are this close it is a game of inches. So yeah Week 7. If the Cowboys roll out like they did early 2020, then yeah this stack could pay major major dividends. But 6 players on a bye is a bit much?

QB - Could be a killer 1-2 QB combo. One thing I did not get at with the Lamb commentary is that as healthy as Prescott may be, ankle injuries are more worrisome for QBs due to mobility. Probably it is not much concern yet. But remember Romo and his back - it was not an issue until it was. Luckily this is not a dynasty league. But it could be a difference between 1-2 plays a game going 1 way or the other? Or maybe they'll do more run game just to let him ease it in? Again major concern? No. But there is a difference between being 95% and 100% sure and definitely between 95 and 100% fully recovered. But locking in a 2nd QB1 in the 4th was sweet.

RB - Taylor should be a stud. However it does need to be said that early season Taylor was not stellar and there are always going to be fumble concerns until there are none. Across 968 total touches (42 catches), Taylor fumbled a whopping 18 times. So is he due in 2021 or has that been put to rest? But hey at least it wont be a concern on Week 14. :lol: Moving on to CEH - remember Miles Sanders was supposed to have a breakout 2020 after a so-so Rookie year. But the Eagles kept adding RBs that everyone pooh-poohed. So go ahead and poo-poo Darrel Williams and McKinnon (and Peterson rumours or Gurley). But until an RB is a proven stud - in this day and age they arent imo. Not saying he cannot be - just that I am following the old adage do not count your chickens until they are hatched. Moss and/or Hunt could be pleasant surprises or expensive handcuffs.

WR - While there is no WR1, there are some underrated WR2s and a WR3 who could easily have some WR1 weeks. I think the challenge will be figuring out who to use as a flex and who to drop if injuries hit elsewhere. They certainly have a few WRs who could live up to hype hope.

TE - I can see the meme now. When Hurst is your #1 your TEs are the Wurst. :lol: But all jokes aside I think Hurst is a unsexy but safe floor pick. Jarwin at cost - yuck (see mini rant at Cowboys cost of acquisition vs. Steelers :oops: ). But the other 2 are nice cheap fliers.

So yeah I think this is a pretty safe floor team with good potential to have a shot at winning it all. Although Weeks 7 and 9 may be major headaches so could make it a will they or wont they sneak in versus a will they or wont they get a top spot. That uncertainty mixed with the concerns keeps them out of the top 4.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9007
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:54 pm

#4 - @ArrylT

In A Nutshell - Dual Threat Positions could make them a Contender

Analysis - One of the toughest things to do is to honestly self-reflect. Especially on something like a fantasy football squad. So I have no doubt others would rank this team lower, but I am pretty comfortable with this ranking. At first glance it may look like this team is RB deficient, and there definitely are no proven RB1s. But the weakness at one position was countered by doubling down on strength at other positions and having safe floor mixed with high upside.

QB - Hard to not call this a top 3 QB roster, but I suppose that will depend on ones preferences. Lamar was still a QB1 after a "down" year and has proven rushing upside and a safer pass completion, with 2 seasons of 25+ TDs and none with 10+ Ints. Just seemed like a great fit for this format. Admittedly was hoping for Wilson to make it to my 2nd round, but Brady makes for a pretty nice consolation prize. Some analysts feel with another year of comfort in Arians system that Brady, like Peyton Manning, could see a really strong Yr 2 (see Manning 2012/13). Goff and Winston make for a nice pair of insurance / QB1 upside bets. Not saying they will be QB1s, just that past history has indicated that potential exists. Even High QB2 would be a win at the cost of acquisition.

RB - While not exactly a Zero RB squad, this was one of the last teams to draft RB - sometimes that was due to cost and sometimes due to player targets not making it to where I would have drafted them. I project Sermon and Robinson to have RB2 floor with RB1 upside potential. Obviously usage will be key but both are with offences with either a history of run volume or a Coach with such inclinations. When drafted as RB3s (RB 28 & 31) cost on return seems quite safe. Lindsay & Williams have RB2 upside potential and other backs are obviously 1 role away from having such upside (aka handcuffs in high octane offenses). So while this is not a strong RB room, neither is it barebones.

WR - The goal here was to grab safe producers who ended up being values where drafted. Admittedly my fandom of Juju meant I took him 1 round higher than his ADP suggested, but neither was it the earliest reach in the tournament. In the end 4 WRs all with top 24 production in the format, 3 of whom will be having the same QB as the previous year (and DJ Moore has shown he has a safe WR2 floor regardless of QB). I know there is a lot of Evans concern - but like with Brady when hasnt there been? Seems like everyone someone has an argument to make that he will struggle or be overvalued and every year he puts up 1000+ yards and WR2 floor. While WR11 taken he was my WR2 drafted. Also if Brady does follow Manning Y2 progression (and I am saying IF not will), that year Manning had 3 top 22 WRs and a Top 6 TE. So maybe just maybe all of Evans, Godwin, Gronk and Brown can co-exist. Weeks 9-16 2020, with all of them playing, Evans was WR7. If they can re-create that magic, well my season could be magical. :lol: Several rookies just in case, but with low enough draft cost that I can churn roster space if need be,

TE - It is hard to know what TJ Hockenson will do - but I do know that his profile and first 2 years suggest he is on the right track to be a top 3 TE and obviously the situation is pretty ideal for 100+ targets. Worst Case if he takes a slight step back, like Mark Andrews did, then he'll be more TE 9-12 rank. The way I see it, more receptions = more chance at 1st downs. Henry and Hock were both top 8 in TE receptions last year, and +80 in targets (with Graham a close to) so even if they have TD regression/struggles, they'll still benefit from the premium for 1st downs & yardage. But we'll see.

In the end this team was designed with 3 things in mind. (1) Avoid a heavy influx of late bye weeks. (2) Balance between high upside and safe production and (3) Build more at QB/WR as TE/RB tends to be easier to replace in waivers in season if need be. I think there are teams that are stronger tbh and my weakness tends to be lineup decisions, so ergo not going to rank myself higher.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9007
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:15 pm

3#3 = @LiamSteventon

In A Nutshell - Could Be A Contender Oh So Close

Analysis - There really is not too much separating the top 3 teams in my perspective. As always, it comes down to being really nitty gritty and having to make a decision as to why. In this case - the late QB byes and uncertainty take a strength and make it a slight concern. Overall I love the roster, especially the double down at TE. And the RB corps should make anyone jealous who loves production vs shiny new toys.

QB - Stafford is about as safe as they come. Pretty much a perennial QB1 even without rushing upside, now with a potentially explosive offence and a coach that wants to milk every last ounce of milk from his QB Cow. And cost of acquisition was sweet - maybe this pick forced all those other owners to chase the shiny RBs who knows. But potential achilles heel could be if Wentz repeats his struggles and Jones is held off by Newton. Plus it will be Stafford carrying the load with 2 QBs and their 2 Tes on bye Week 14.

RBs - If anything they should able to manage it (the bye weeks and QB iffy) because they can roll out RB after RB after RB. Barkley, Elliot, Jacobs all seem well suited to this format and have proven RB1 seasons and potential upside still on the table (well maybe not Elliott but thats just because he's already had multiple top 3 RB seasons). Maybe Javonte Willams surpasses Melvin Gordon but Gordon is a back with lots if pedigree & experience and is likely to put up a fight - so as RB4 with RB2 upside at cost is just smart imo. Couple of RB fliers with upside to boot - although I could quibble about the cost of Carter considering the unsafe nature of Jets offense (when was their last real RB1 season??).

WR - Might be their weakest link, and when you have AJ Brown, hard to call that a weak link. Pretty much everyone acknowledges he'd be a WR1 if he had not missed a couple of weeks. But technically no proven WR1. And plenty of upside but not much else. Luckily some safe floor producers in Crowder and Sanders can hold down the fort while he finds out if the others will sink or swim. They might not be sexy but they are startable. Plus he is probably thanking Cole Beasley. :lol:

TE - Some might call this a weak TE, and if it was just Irv Smith I would agree. But I am not yet ready to count out Zach Ertz yet. TE is a position of incredible longetivity recently and TE1 production can come from guys in their mid to late 30s, and Ertz just has to show he's pretty much healthy even if he's lost a step. Plus pairing with Goedert is just genius. Together they're still fantasy relevant and if Ertz does move, then he benefits.

All in all - so close to being a top 2 team. His draft was a thing of beauty (although not flawless). If the British had generals like him they probably would not have lost the Revolutionary War (but then you'd all be doing fantasy cricket). Very curious to see what they do to will in those slight weaknesses keeping them out of the top spot and best chance to win it all. Btw I didnt mention Irv Smith much because I wanted to pretend that wasted pick didnt exist.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9007
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

Postby ArrylT » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:22 pm

#2 - @BarlowPeter

In A Nutshell - I am going to take a guess and assume they are a Rolling Stones fan - and they can therefore sing along because they're "just a TE away - It's just a TE away - Victory, children It's just a TE away"

Analysis - Elite QB1 check. Elite RB1 check. Elite WR1 check. QB2 with QB1 upside check. RB2 with RB1 upside check. WR2 with WR1 upside check. QB3 with QB2 upside check. RB3 with RB2 upside check. WR3 with WR2 upside check.

QB - Not much else to say.

RB - Not much else to say, but having so many extra handcuffs could be wise, or could be roster clogger - we'll wait and see.

WR - After their top 3 WR, they have a nice mix of upside guys (Ruggs, Tre'Quan) and safe bye week / flex floor guys (Shepard, Brown) and a few what if (Watkins & Beasley). Adams, imo, like Evans, tends to be a guy that many owners want to find reasons to bet against. Yeah I get the worries about Rodgers. But that turns him into what - Allen Robinson who has been a consistent WR1 despite rarely having QB consistency.

TE - Could be their Akers errr Achilles heel or it could be a sneaky dark horse position. Higbee has shown flashes of production but not really a fan of the cost since they're not a proven producer (but pretty close admittedly). Obviously they're not really worried about Rodgers since they doubled down on Packers with Tonyan, which I think was a solid acquisition at cost.

All in all this team could be very tough to beat, especially if their TE step it up. The 6 pack attack at QB/QB/WR/WR/RB/RB will be a tough challenge for most owners to beat, and only Adams has a late bye so they could be cooking with gas down the stretch.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9007
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Don't Worry You Won't Be Punk'd By This Daft Punk Draft Review

Postby ArrylT » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:17 pm

#1 - @Electronicks_FF

In A Nutshell - Super Studs and depth could spell doom for many

Analysis - On paper many might look at this and think huh. How are they ranked #1? Well they have underrated strength at multiple positions, and only need depth at one position, which could be an easy position to fill if they pay attention and are vigilant. All in all this team looks wiry & flexible and ready to go from day 1.

QB - In the offseason the shiny new toys always get the most attention and many people look for the next new thing and find ways to give up on the old reliable. Kirk Cousins for example. Back to back QB1 seasons. QBs in their early 30s tend to be hitting their prime. While many might be salivating over Kellen "Fools Gold" Mond taking over the reins, they are likely to be missing Cousins putting up another reliable QB1 season, much like Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford do over and over. A QB1 in the 3rd of a SF Redraft league is like money in the bank. Back that up with a QB2 who could be in line for a suprise sophomore breakout and a QB3 who at cost is an easy flier to gamble on for rushing upside. And hey while I think Mond is a waste, I got no issue with taking some insurance late & they can easily discard for a better asset.

RB - King Henry. Another player people keep liking to bet against. Yet at every single level all he does is destroy the competition in production. An argument can easily be made that Henry not Elliott is the best RB from the 2016 class. Do I expect some regression from 2k yards - sure - but even a drop to 2019 levels is still top 5 RB. We know Julio Jones is not a TD vulture and we know Henry has 3 straight double digit TD seasons so not expecting much regression there. David Johnsons issue is not talent simply health - so at that cost the floor & upside is sweet. 10 weeks of double digit production and thats on the dumpster fire that is Houston. Singletary bet is quite cheap. And well Henderson may have already paid off. Always a good idea in leagues where you can stash, handcuffs in high octane situations. In the 13th round. Wow. Potential league winner maybe now. :crazy:

WR - If Michael Thomas can have his best season while Teddy "Underrated" Bridgewater had the helm for part of the season, then like with Adams, I just do not see much reason to be concerned regardless of who is QB. I mean Allen fed Diggs, Murray fed Hopkins, so if Hill is even simply mediocre, then Thomas should still be a Jarvis Landry 2017 (Cutler Moore still WR 4 2017 or WR 8-9 if that production in typical ppr was last year) type season. If however he and Winston riff like Deep Purple then WR 2 2019 SFB scoring seems quite possible. And they have another WR1 in Allen Robinson just in case. Cooks, like Mike Evans, just keeps producing no matter what. Shenault and Waddle make for some nice boom WRs at costs that are not disagreeable. And who knows Toney & Brown could be something immediately and easily replaceable if not.

TE - Kelce is all you need - the Beatles said it best. Hopefully OJ Howard will make a full recovery because if he does he has consistently put up TE1 ppg - just never been a safe bet to stay on the field. But the late fliers at other positions can easily be churned to add TE depth if need be.

Daft Punk made sweet sweet music. And they made their roster without having to resort to getting lucky - well apart from the stoned state some of you may have been in to allow them to score elite studs at all 4 positions. Well done sir. :thumbup:
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

Monkey Knife Fight