Let's talk Chris Conley

[Dookmarriot]

iCantStop elsewhere said:

And Conley wasn't just a metrics guy, if you watch his tape. He actually has good hands, knows how to beat zone coverage, and can turn CBs inside out. Problem is he was stuck in a run-HEAVY attack at UGA.

I'm really high on Conley. Great speed, good size, gets great separation, fantastic hands. Love his body control, and how he attacks the ball. He looks like a pro out there.

ICantStop is right that he's probably discounted because of limited college usage, but that's a knock on Georgia's offensive philosophy, not Conley's talent. He's also likely discounted because Alex Smith is his QB, but you can make the case that Smith hasn't thrown deep much because he hasn't had a great deep threat.

Only knock I can see is that press coverage seems to stymie him, but that's something he can learn. With Maclin and Kelce drawing attention in the middle, Conley has the chance to see a lot of space. He's a great value (last ADP was 25th) - I certainly like him more than a lot of the more highly touted WR in this class.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I like him and thought he looked good, the problem is the production just isn't there, and that matters a lot when we're talking about a 6'2 freak athlete WR. I mean look at Cody Latimer, similar player who didn't produce all that much in college and didn't do squat in the NFL albeit as a rookie because he couldn't learn the playbook. There is usually a reason these guys don't produce and it's not the fault of the teams gameplan. I would LOVE to have Conley on my bench though of course because he did look the part even though he plays a little slower than his metrics would suggest. Smooth with good hands.

[Dookmarriot]

I like him and thought he looked good, the problem is the production just isn't there, and that matters a lot when we're talking about a 6'2 freak athlete WR. I mean look at Cody Latimer, similar player who didn't produce all that much in college and didn't do squat in the NFL albeit as a rookie because he couldn't learn the playbook. There is usually a reason these guys don't produce and it's not the fault of the teams gameplan.

I'd give Latimer a bit of a pass as 1) up until last year, you wouldn't expect big returns from first year players 2) he was down a crowded depth chart and 3) it's not as if a Peyton Manning playbook is like reading Garfield. He's working regularly with Peyton this offseason, Thomas and Welker are gone and DT is holding out, so it's put up or shut up time.

But the team gameplan isn't a minor factor in the production of a player. Especially in the case of Georgia, which to my eyes looked at a forward pass as something to do when Gurley or Chubb needed a breather. Unless you consider Murray or Mason top flight QBs, which I don't. You could be right and it could be that Georgia didn't use him due to lesser talent, but I'm willing to take the risk (especially at Conley's price) that he'll be a better pro than a college player.

[iCantStop]

Conley caught 8 touchdowns on 36 catches last year. 36 catches is NOT stellar, but 8 touchdowns (especially on only 36 catches) is.

For the sake of argument, let's compare Donte Moncrief & Chris Conley:
Last year of college:
Moncrief: 59-938-6
Conley: 36-657-8



http://www.mockdraftable.com/player_embed/4350/
edit* Sorry - can't figure out how to embed this one.

Conley has larger hands. Longer arms. Is faster. Can Jump higher. Jump farther. Was drafted earlier in the 3rd round (Of different years).

These types of players have to prove they don't belong before they're considered Fantasy Irrelevant. Their metrics will carry them (In terms of Dynasty value) for a minimum of 2 years until they flop - and that's IF they flop. I personally don't have Conley in the high second round, but anything after that is arguably a crapshoot, so why not? Conley isn't going to lose ADP value, even if he doesn't do much this year. I'm predicting Moncrief-esque numbers in his rookie season (32-444-3), which will give the height/speed/vert people enough of a sample to -at the very least- perk their ears, and keep Conley's value afloat for at least another year.

[evorzan]

I don't have a link or source to put with this at this time, but his character is considered to be very high and he's also considered to be an intelligent player. These are good bonuses to have. He also has a pretty low drop rate.

[Team Tacos]

Potential is sky high, he's one of my favourite sleepers. I'm targeting him (or Lockett) in the third round.

[Telperion]

Matt Waldman did a short piece on him and had positive things to say. I don't take him as gospel, it's only a reference to say that he's clearly not just a combine hero, there's football substance to like there too.

The odds are still always against 3rd round WR, but they're far better than the Ajayi, Cobb, Robinson odds and those guys often go before him.

[iCantStop]

Matt Waldman did a short piece on him and had positive things to say. I don't take him as gospel, it's only a reference to say that he's clearly not just a combine hero, there's football substance to like there too.

The odds are still always against 3rd round WR, but they're far better than the Ajayi, Cobb, Robinson odds and those guys often go before him.

BTW Telperion, thank you for putting the link to your work on RB1/2 & WR1/2 by speed score & draft round in your signature. I find myself searching for it quite often when I'm looking up players & potential hit rates.

[flashgordon12]

I like him and thought he looked good, the problem is the production just isn't there, and that matters a lot when we're talking about a 6'2 freak athlete WR. I mean look at Cody Latimer, similar player who didn't produce all that much in college and didn't do squat in the NFL albeit as a rookie because he couldn't learn the playbook. There is usually a reason these guys don't produce and it's not the fault of the teams gameplan. I would LOVE to have Conley on my bench though of course because he did look the part even though he plays a little slower than his metrics would suggest. Smooth with good hands.

Also John Fox just doesn't play rookies. People are going to be disappointed if they expect Kevin White to make a big splash this year. And as for Conley, I love that he is available in the third round. I think he's got all the traits you look for in a WR but his stock is so down because "he didn't produce". Well when you have the two best RBs in the country on your team as well as Hutson freaking Mason I would assume and hope that you run every play. And Conley's YPC and TD% indicate that he did pretty well with what he was given. I got him at 3.03 and will wait until next offseason when people see he is actually a good football player to either sell for a greater return or sit back and smile that I got such a steal.

[Gametime675]

Watching Conley on tape I don't know how you can argue that he's just a combine warrior. He looks to have very good hands, great body control and good field awareness. As a few posters above mentioned I just think he had an unfortunate situation with 2 all star RBs and a joke of an SEC QB. It really seems that he was used more often as a decoy to spread the field so he didn't get a ton of looks. As mentioned, the looks he did get he took advantage of.

Alex Smith has played the game manager role the last 2 years but who has he had besides Charles as a weapon? Bowe? C'mon, he checked out after his big payday. Donnie Avery? hah! Kelce started coming on last year granted. But you give him an athletic freak who can climb the ladder in the RZ and I think Smith will take his shots, he just has never had a mismatch like Conley can potentially create.

Seriously, look at his profile. If he even becomes a half-decent player and route runner I don't know who can cover him. Smaller DBs he'll just outmuscle and go over the top. Big, physical DBs he'll burn deep every time. Personally, I would much rather have Conley's upside versus some other guys in that same range like Funchess, Cobb, J. Robinson and Coates. By the mid-2nd I'm looking for pure upside because they're all gambles at that point. I think Conley could have the biggest payoff.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Personally, I would much rather have Conley's upside versus some other guys in that same range like Funchess, Cobb, J. Robinson and Coates.

I would probably take Funchess over him but the other guys are no-brainers I would take Conley over them. It's really weird to me he's ranked behind them.

[Telperion]

Personally, I would much rather have Conley's upside versus some other guys in that same range like Funchess, Cobb, J. Robinson and Coates.

I would probably take Funchess over him but the other guys are no-brainers I would take Conley over them. It's really weird to me he's ranked behind them.

Funchess? I think I need to revoke your Metrics Club card.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Personally, I would much rather have Conley's upside versus some other guys in that same range like Funchess, Cobb, J. Robinson and Coates.

I would probably take Funchess over him but the other guys are no-brainers I would take Conley over them. It's really weird to me he's ranked behind them.

Funchess? I think I need to revoke your Metrics Club card.

His metrics are actually awesome. Youth, adjusted speed, burst, catch radius, production, breakout age, height, age, arm length all really high. And for the most part I liked what I saw on tape. He's just a liiiiitttle too slow.

[REPTAR]

His metrics are actually awesome. Youth, adjusted speed, burst, catch radius, production, breakout age, height, age, arm length all really high. And for the most part I liked what I saw on tape. He's just a liiiiitttle too slow.

Funchess looks like molasses to me, I'm not touching him. I like Conley a lot but the KC landing spot hurts, trying to look past it. Big fan of Coates though.

[Telperion]

https://youtu.be/ryBOWI0eNbk

Watch how much he gets covered by LB's and safeties. And look at his lack of separation from the DB's when they are on him.

But anyway, back on Conley...