Don't overthink NFL draft round

[dm1129]

It is sobering to realize that even as a 1st round pick, a WR only has less than a 1 in 4 chance of becoming a WR1 multiple years in a career. The true elite WRs are worth their weight in gold...

[JJDubya]

I read that 4.5-4.55 40 time to be >0, correct? Would be interesting to see the raw numbers here, as I could see the score being watered down as a result of the number of RBs that actually running in that range outnumbering the rest by a hefty margin.

1/102. 4.45-4.5 is 7/80, 4.55-4.6 is 7/109, 4.6-4.65 is 3/103.

To look at another slice, 6/32 in the 4.40-4.45 range met the criteria, 6/348 at 4.60 or slower met the criteria.

Interesting figured it would have been a larger group - wonder if Gordon will make it 2 since he ran a 4.53 or something like that. I had read before the indication that running in the 4.4s and below has for future future success.

[lawilt]

I agree not to over think the round a guy got drafted in but I'd gladly take Strong over guys like Smith and Funchess just because of the situation and not seeing the talent there

[Telperion]

I'm with you on Funchesss because he's slower than Aaron Donald.

[FantasyFreak]

I read that 4.5-4.55 40 time to be >0, correct? Would be interesting to see the raw numbers here, as I could see the score being watered down as a result of the number of RBs that actually running in that range outnumbering the rest by a hefty margin.

1/102. 4.45-4.5 is 7/80, 4.55-4.6 is 7/109, 4.6-4.65 is 3/103.

To look at another slice, 6/32 in the 4.40-4.45 range met the criteria, 6/348 at 4.60 or slower met the criteria.

Interesting figured it would have been a larger group - wonder if Gordon will make it 2 since he ran a 4.53 or something like that. I had read before the indication that running in the 4.4s and below has for future future success.

Gordon's time was said to have been 4.47 based on frame by frame. The NFL used hand started times, it seems Gordon actually broke 4.5.

[TommyL31]

I feel like I'm on Pee Wee's Playhouse and "Draft Pedigree" is the secret word that will make everyone freak out.

Ha, but seriously very interesting stuff. Jives with the general sentiment that I hold that the first round is pretty meaningful. Rounds 2-3 or 2-4 are kind of a chunk where the guy probably has less upside and/or more flaws than first rounders but a mid 2nd to a bad fit is typically worse than a mid 3rd to a good fit.

Round 5 or later there's a major problem or concern. It's anecdotal but I remember loving Lamar Miller's game tape and measureables coming out and he was supposed to be a 2nd rounder but he slipped to the 4th and that was surprising but not 'stay away entirely' alarming.

Then I liked Lache Seastrunk last year predraft. I worried about Seastrunk's pass blocking and receiving abilities. Draft day came and he fell to the 6th and I figured that the concerns were worse than advertised.

[klazk]

Article specifically addresses only wide receivers, but has the same basic point regarding draft position and future fantasy production.

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/519 ... dlvr.it_nF

[Telperion]

Bumping this topic since I updated the graphs in the original post based on feedback I've heard around the forums in various threads.

[DJB]

Nice stuff here. Extremely useful. Do we have a link to the speed score thread? Can't seem to find it.

[Telperion]

Nice stuff here. Extremely useful. Do we have a link to the speed score thread? Can't seem to find it.

The Football Data Warehouse in my sig provides the formulas used for the various advanced metrics.

[DJB]

Ok thanks Tel.

[Telperion]

While this is a great chart for referencing elite #1 guys.. It is not exactly a surprise.

Maybe I'm an exception but when I'm going after those later guys I like; I'm typically looking for 2 or 3 production, not 1 production (although it would be nice).

Ask and you shall receive:



More coming soon, and I'll update the original post.

[49ersFaithful80]

Durrrr but what about Arian Foster and Tom Brady!???

This has always been one of my biggest talking points on here. What in god's name makes people on here think they know better than professional scouts who have access to WAY more information and get to actually meet the players/coaches is beyond me.

I always find myself arguing with someone who wants to draft some 4th round RB over a late 1st/early 2nd round receiver because they watched a highlight video on youtube.

[maxhyde]

Thanks. Great info

[Telperion]

Substantial improvements to the charts!

1. Now shows 6 data series for RB/WR so you can look at players 25-36 now.
2. Included TE's now.
3. Slightly modified population numbers: for series' where the criteria is 2x seasons, I excluded 2015 rookies (since they haven't played 2 seasons yet). It adds a few percentage points of accuracy to the numbers that I didn't have last year.
4. Better explanation of how to read the charts.
5. Debunking of the "but my slow RB scored good on combine agility drills" myth.

Let me know if there are additional requests.