Don't overthink NFL draft round

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TheChicken
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby TheChicken » Fri Mar 18, 2016 3:16 pm

Any chance we could restrict the graphs to rookies that make the 53 man roster at some point in their rookie year? Happy to help with the donkey work if needed.
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Telperion
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Telperion » Fri Mar 18, 2016 3:45 pm

TheChicken wrote:Any chance we could restrict the graphs to rookies that make the 53 man roster at some point in their rookie year? Happy to help with the donkey work if needed.
It's not directly possible, but I could generate a table of players who recorded 1 GP in their rookie year (basically any game where they recorded any stat of any kind), and filter out players who don't meet that criteria.

On Monday I may be able to generate something.
- Don't waste your time on late round NFL draft picks: Success rates by NFL draft round and speed.
- Team(s): Team 1

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby TheChicken » Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:11 pm

Telperion wrote:
TheChicken wrote:Any chance we could restrict the graphs to rookies that make the 53 man roster at some point in their rookie year? Happy to help with the donkey work if needed.
It's not directly possible, but I could generate a table of players who recorded 1 GP in their rookie year (basically any game where they recorded any stat of any kind), and filter out players who don't meet that criteria.

On Monday I may be able to generate something.
Games played would work .... And no rush. Was thinking how the early round rookies are always rostered in dynasty as they are never cut by the teams that drafted them, but only those late round/UDFA rookies that make the roster are ever really considered in dynasty. Don't think it'll affect the mid rounds, but I'm wondering if UDFAs that make the roster outperform the mid to late pick rookies.
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Johnny Canuck » Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:12 pm

49ersFaithful80 wrote:Durrrr but what about Arian Foster and Tom Brady!???

This has always been one of my biggest talking points on here. What in god's name makes people on here think they know better than professional scouts who have access to WAY more information and get to actually meet the players/coaches is beyond me.

I always find myself arguing with someone who wants to draft some 4th round RB over a late 1st/early 2nd round receiver because they watched a highlight video on youtube.
The exception to the rule this year will be Keith Marshall. Guy has a crazy 40 time and his speed score is through the roof. All that said, I doubt he gets taken before the 3rd round. So there's the push I guess, do you put your trust in the draft round data, or the measurables data. Will be interesting to see if he becomes an outlier

Telperion
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Telperion » Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:57 pm

Or are the metrics stars usually taken in the early rounds. That's a much harder data set to chart.
- Don't waste your time on late round NFL draft picks: Success rates by NFL draft round and speed.
- Team(s): Team 1

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby dlf_jules » Sat Mar 19, 2016 3:42 am

Good stuff. Thanks!
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Sat Mar 19, 2016 8:30 am

So how should I apply this information to late round FFL picks? I play in a 16 man league and our rookie draft/FA pool draft is 5 rounds. By the time we get to our 4th round there isn't much to see. Should I be aiming to grab the Darren Waller/Rawls/Zenner type guys or should I be trying to grab some randomly athletic tight ends? Obviously I should do all I can to try and trade out of those late picks and move up but most people are somewhat aware of the uselessness of picks that late.

At this point I'm generally trying to grab anyone who can generate any kind of buzz and using them in trades to move up a round or two soon as soon as the opportunity presents itself.
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr

11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)

Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White

Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez

Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo

Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker

24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5

Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE

Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning

JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker

Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,

Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins


24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby ericanadian » Sat Mar 19, 2016 8:56 am

There is no way Rawls will be available in the 4th of your draft if it's even remotely competitive.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
DB - D. James, Baker, Delpit
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Phaded » Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:34 am

ericanadian wrote:There is no way Rawls will be available in the 4th of your draft if it's even remotely competitive.
He didn't say Rawls specifically - he meant that "type" of guy.

Telperion
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Telperion » Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:34 am

Throughout the year you can trade away those picks as add ons. If you're stuck with them come draft day, in a 16 teamer, maybe load up on backup QB's to corner the market.
- Don't waste your time on late round NFL draft picks: Success rates by NFL draft round and speed.
- Team(s): Team 1

SteveMaddensShoes
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:23 am

Yeah, I didn't mean Rawls this year. Just those late round flier that get hype. Backup QB's, that's a plan. I'd read somewhere that apart from Brady no QB drafted after the 3rd round of the NFL has ever really produced over time. But I can see using them to trade up during the right situations. Thanks.
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr

11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)

Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White

Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez

Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo

Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker

24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5

Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE

Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning

JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker

Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,

Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins


24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5

timmahawk
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby timmahawk » Sat Mar 19, 2016 11:59 am

SteveMaddensShoes wrote:Yeah, I didn't mean Rawls this year. Just those late round flier that get hype. Backup QB's, that's a plan. I'd read somewhere that apart from Brady no QB drafted after the 3rd round of the NFL has ever really produced over time. But I can see using them to trade up during the right situations. Thanks.
Romo was undrafted, but yeah, not a good hit rate on QBs drafted late.

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby ericanadian » Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:10 pm

SteveMaddensShoes wrote:Yeah, I didn't mean Rawls this year. Just those late round flier that get hype. Backup QB's, that's a plan. I'd read somewhere that apart from Brady no QB drafted after the 3rd round of the NFL has ever really produced over time. But I can see using them to trade up during the right situations. Thanks.
Hasselbeck was a 6th rounder and did alright. Schaub had a few good years and I think he was a 4th. You also have guys like Garcia, Moon, Flutie & Warner that didn't even stick in the league initially. Most guys that start for am extended period are 1st rounders, but a couple squeak through.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
DB - D. James, Baker, Delpit
K - Just a stupid kicker

TheChicken
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby TheChicken » Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:19 pm

The key is late picks do not generally sustain production. Draft those in decent situations (I.e. likely to see the field) and if they flash, sell. As tempting as it is to hold, the data is saying sell.
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Telperion
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Telperion » Sat Mar 19, 2016 1:38 pm

ericanadian wrote:
SteveMaddensShoes wrote:Yeah, I didn't mean Rawls this year. Just those late round flier that get hype. Backup QB's, that's a plan. I'd read somewhere that apart from Brady no QB drafted after the 3rd round of the NFL has ever really produced over time. But I can see using them to trade up during the right situations. Thanks.
Hasselbeck was a 6th rounder and did alright. Schaub had a few good years and I think he was a 4th. You also have guys like Garcia, Moon, Flutie & Warner that didn't even stick in the league initially. Most guys that start for am extended period are 1st rounders, but a couple squeak through.
It's all about percentages.

Image

Still bad. It's basically first round and everybody else.
- Don't waste your time on late round NFL draft picks: Success rates by NFL draft round and speed.
- Team(s): Team 1


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