Don't overthink NFL draft round

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
ninotoreS
Legend
Legend
Posts: 5095
Joined: Wed Sep 12, 2012 9:56 pm

Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby ninotoreS » Wed May 11, 2016 3:35 pm

PhadedCN wrote:You're using just the strict number of active starters and co-starters to try to prove your point. It doesn't tell us they are more likely to hit than before because you are disregarding the immense amount of flops of 4th-7th rounders and UDFAa.

The pool size is a lot larger than RBs drafted in the first three rounds.
You're ignoring the reality that it's immediately obvious to us here in dynasty which portion of the massive 4th-7th/undrafted pile actually warrants attention, because of context, measurables, depth-chart opportunity, coachspeak, etc and so forth. It's not just needles in a haystack.

From the outset, we know to dismiss the Tyler Vargas, and at the same time we know we shouldn't ignore the Thomas Rawls. Rawls had lots of threads on these forums before 2015 season started. Did Tyler Vargas? No, because we already knew he belonged in that other pile... which is a lot bigger than the 'good flier' pile.
Last edited by ninotoreS on Wed May 11, 2016 3:59 pm, edited 3 times in total.
"I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure."
- Sun Tzu, 469 BCE

Telperion
Player of the Year
Player of the Year
Posts: 2090
Joined: Mon Jul 22, 2013 6:14 am

Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Telperion » Wed May 11, 2016 3:40 pm

ninotoreS wrote:That ignores the reality that it's immediately obvious to us that are informed which portion of the 4th-7th/undrafted pile actually warrant attention. It's not just needles in a haystack.
These discussions always end up here, and I simply disagree that dynasty GM's are able to beat the odds.

From a roster standpoint, I have Bell, but also a bunch of other darts. It's okay to have 4 low odds darts, the issue is people fall in love with 1 dart and get convinced they'll beat the odds.
- Don't waste your time on late round NFL draft picks: Success rates by NFL draft round and speed.
- Team(s): Team 1

ninotoreS
Legend
Legend
Posts: 5095
Joined: Wed Sep 12, 2012 9:56 pm

Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby ninotoreS » Wed May 11, 2016 3:44 pm

Telperion wrote:the issue is people fall in love with 1 dart and get convinced they'll beat the odds
I agree. That is an issue. Not saying it ain't.

Anyway, y'all don't have to agree. Just trying to help.


To sum: just beware dogma, whether it's some sort of rigidly defined evaluation philosophy, or a fancy signature metric this or that website is trying to sell you, etc and so forth.

We only want to trust in these ideas because they do the heavy-lifting for us.
"I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure."
- Sun Tzu, 469 BCE

FantasyFreak
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 17056
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 am

Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby FantasyFreak » Wed May 11, 2016 4:22 pm

I think part of dynasty is going with the players you like. Just be realistic with the expectations you hold for them. Don't expect a 6th rounder to turn into a starter, but if he does, good for you. If you don't believe in Will Fuller, don't draft him. Trade back, pick a few guys you do like. Again, be realistic about your expectations about certain players, but I do not draft players I don't like, because I can handle missing on a guy I like more than a guy I didn't want in the first place, and picked because of his draft round, or ADP.

kwade7575
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 208
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:59 pm

Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby kwade7575 » Wed May 11, 2016 4:27 pm

Telperion wrote:
ninotoreS wrote:That ignores the reality that it's immediately obvious to us that are informed which portion of the 4th-7th/undrafted pile actually warrant attention. It's not just needles in a haystack.
These discussions always end up here, and I simply disagree that dynasty GM's are able to beat the odds.

From a roster standpoint, I have Bell, but also a bunch of other darts. It's okay to have 4 low odds darts, the issue is people fall in love with 1 dart and get convinced they'll beat the odds.
I agree with both of these views. So many of those RB's taken in rounds 4-7 that flop are already disregarded from most people's boards. We have a pretty good sense of who have the better odds of gaining value into the season. With that being said, too often those guys become so beloved by their owners thinking that they found the next late-round great. Those later round guys (Rawls, Langford, Ajayi) that see their value increase over the year can be packaged to get someone who is more likely to retain success
The Vaders 10-team .5PPR QB/RB/WR/WR/TE/Superflex/Flex/Flex
QB - C.Wentz, A. Luck
RB - S. Michel, N. Chubb, R. Jones, D.Murray, S.Ware, B.Powell, Du.Johnson
WR - D.Hopkins, S.Watkins, A.Cooper, M.Lee, D. Parker
TE - Z.Ertz, J. Reed

Saskatchewan Roughriders 16-team .5PPR QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/FLEX/FLEX/FLEX/DEF/K Orphan 2016
QB - Mitchell Trubisky
RB - L.Fournette, Brian Hill
WR - M.Thomas, J.Doctson, Corey Davis, L.Treadwell, J.Crowder, M.Lee, Zay Jones
TE - Z.Ertz
2018 picks 1,1,2,3

Lotto4Life
Player of the Year
Player of the Year
Posts: 2364
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2012 8:48 am

Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Lotto4Life » Wed May 11, 2016 5:25 pm

ninotoreS wrote:43% of these starters/co-starters were taken in the 4th round or later (17 of 40).
At least 40% of them (16 of 40) will finish outside RB2 territory. Not that you can't win it with an RB2 and RB3 as your top to RBs.

Telperion
Player of the Year
Player of the Year
Posts: 2090
Joined: Mon Jul 22, 2013 6:14 am

Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Telperion » Thu May 12, 2016 4:49 am

Also nobody is espousing the view that you should never roster or count on late round or UDFA RB's. Arian Foster and Lamar Miller for example are obvious exceptions.

The point though is that you should never expect those players to succeed. Let them succeed on someone else's roster. If they show that they are consistent producers that break the odds, sure, treat them like any other RB art that point.

Yes, you'll miss on getting them cheap, but you'll also miss falling into the far more likely other trap of falling for the numerous other guys who never make it.

Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk
- Don't waste your time on late round NFL draft picks: Success rates by NFL draft round and speed.
- Team(s): Team 1

Pullo Vision
Legend
Legend
Posts: 5033
Joined: Sat May 28, 2011 11:53 pm

Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Pullo Vision » Tue May 01, 2018 9:09 pm

Crypto-bump relevant this time of year.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex

League #2- 12 team PPR, 1 Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def

User avatar
Jason3123
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3008
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2013 9:15 pm

Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Jason3123 » Tue May 01, 2018 9:58 pm

Telperion disappeared...wonder what happened to him.

User avatar
Jason3123
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3008
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2013 9:15 pm

Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Jason3123 » Tue May 01, 2018 10:04 pm

RB's taken in the 2nd round who played their rookie season at 21 years old:

Clinton Portis
Le'Veon Bell
MJD
Joe Mixon
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice

2018:
Derrius Guice
Ronald Jones
Kerryon Johnson

User avatar
lukkynumber13
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 11601
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 2:41 pm

Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby lukkynumber13 » Tue May 01, 2018 10:06 pm

Jason3123 wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 10:04 pm
RB's taken in the 2nd round who played their rookie season at 21 years old:

Clinton Portis
Le'Veon Bell
MJD
Joe Mixon
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice

2018:
Derrius Guice
Ronald Jones
Kerryon Johnson
Ray Rice had a short career. Direct correlation here. Young RBs who get drafted in the 2nd round are statistically more likely to hit their fiancé.

#AvoidGuice
BOTH TEAMS BELOW ARE 1QB

TEAM A - 12 teams (19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Brees, Tua, Wentz
COOK/JACOBS/MIXON, Dobbins, Swift, Hunt, Singletary, Bell, B Hill, Wilkins
NUK/HILL/GOLLADAY/K ALLEN, Diontae J, Hollywood, Ruggs, Pittman, Hilton, G Davis, Snead
KITTLE, Waller, Akins, H Bryant
-
Not listing my IDP, but they matter as much as offense in this league. Joey Bosa, Buckner, Sweat, and Cam Jordan are my main studs.
///
///
TEAM B - 32 teams, double copy - TEs get 1.5x bump in scoring
LAMAR, Cousins, Rivers, J Love
SAQUON/MIXON/CARSON, Dobbins, Lindsay, Mattison, Ingram, D Freeman, Clement
NUK/K ALLEN/JULIO/AROB, Evans, Thielen, DJ Moore, Lamb, Boyd, Coutee, Alshon
KITTLE/L Thomas, Ertz, Reed
Danielle Hunter, Aaron Donald, and Chris Jones are the cornerstones of my IDP squad.

User avatar
Jason3123
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3008
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2013 9:15 pm

Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Jason3123 » Tue May 01, 2018 10:11 pm

lukkynumber13 wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 10:06 pm
Jason3123 wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 10:04 pm
RB's taken in the 2nd round who played their rookie season at 21 years old:

Clinton Portis
Le'Veon Bell
MJD
Joe Mixon
LeSean McCoy
Ray Rice

2018:
Derrius Guice
Ronald Jones
Kerryon Johnson
Ray Rice had a short career. Direct correlation here. Young RBs who get drafted in the 2nd round are statistically more likely to hit their fiancé.

#AvoidGuice
Lol. I didn't notice that.


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests