Don't overthink NFL draft round

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby ericanadian » Sat Mar 19, 2016 8:47 pm

Totally agree, but some situations are special cases. Shanahan/Kubiak running back is the first that comes to mind. Short, fast Arians WRs are another. Short QBs in general are another. Greg Knapp TEs. Some systems create consistent exceptions.
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Johnny Canuck » Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:19 pm

Just bumping up this great thread
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QB: Rodgers, Baker
RB: Ekeler, Gurley, David Johnson, Hunt, Sony, Mckinnon, Love, Guice
WR: AJB, Hilton, AJG, Hollywood Brown, Laviska, Antonio Brown, Washington, Renfrow
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby knut45 » Wed Apr 20, 2016 1:42 am

Don't suppose you know what the hit rate was, specifically for wide receivers when the 1st round is split into 3? (ie top 10, 10-20, 20+).

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Nigel » Wed May 11, 2016 11:35 am

kingknut1991 wrote:Don't suppose you know what the hit rate was, specifically for wide receivers when the 1st round is split into 3? (ie top 10, 10-20, 20+).
This would be interesting. Great stuff, regardless.
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Telperion » Wed May 11, 2016 12:10 pm

Nigel wrote:
kingknut1991 wrote:Don't suppose you know what the hit rate was, specifically for wide receivers when the 1st round is split into 3? (ie top 10, 10-20, 20+).
This would be interesting. Great stuff, regardless.
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- Don't waste your time on late round NFL draft picks: Success rates by NFL draft round and speed.
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby ninotoreS » Wed May 11, 2016 2:44 pm

Current projected RB starters/co-starters 2016

Bills: LeSean McCoy - 2nd
Dolphins: Jay Ajayi - 5th
Patriots: Dion Lewis/LeGarrette Blount - 5th/Undrafted
Jets: Matt Forte - 2nd
Ravens: Justin Forsett - 7th
Bengals: Jeremy Hill/Gio Bernard - 2nd/2nd
Browns: Isaiah Crowell/Duke Johnson - Undrafted/3rd
Steelers: Le'Veon Bell - 2nd
Texans: Lamar Miller - 4th
Colts: Frank Gore - 3rd
Jaguars: TJ Yeldon/Chris Ivory - 2nd/Undrafted
Titans: DeMarco Murray - 3rd
Browns: CJ Anderson - Undrafted
Chiefs: Jamaal Charles - 3rd
Raiders: Latavius Murrary - 6th
Chargers: Melvin Gordon/Danny Woodhead - 1st/Undrafted
Cowboys: Zeke Elliot - 1st
Giants: Rashad Jennings - 7th
Eagles: Ryan Matthews/Darren Sproles - 1st/4th
Redskins: Matt Jones - 3rd
Bears: Jeremy Langford - 4th
Lions: Ameer Abdullah/Theo Riddick - 2nd/6th
Packers: Eddie Lacy/James Starks - 2nd/6th
Vikings: Adrian Peterson - 1st
Falcons: Devonta Freeman - 4th
Panthers: Jonathan Stewart - 1st
Saints: Mark Ingram - 1st
Buccaneers: Doug Martin - 1st
Cardinals: David Johnson - 3rd
Rams: Todd Gurley - 1st
Seahawks: Thomas Rawls - Undrafted
49ers: Carlos Hyde - 2nd


43% of these starters/co-starters were taken in the 4th round or later (17 of 40).

Is the league changing? One possible issue with rear-view mirror data is that it might not highlight the road's present trajectory. To parallel...

Not too long ago, 'everyone knew' elite wide-receiver prospects had to be height/speed specimens, aside from some extremely rare exceptions. Now we have sub-6'0" playmakers all over the league, and even some 'slow' 40-time wide-outs like Hopkins and Landry rewriting our guidelines. Of the league's generally considered to be top 5 best wide-receivers right now, two are 5'10 and 5'11, and two ran a 4.57 forty. If, say back in 2006, someone had predicted this to be the case for three of the league's best five wide-receivers in ten years time, it'd have been considered a joke-prediction.

Things change. Historical data is important, but noticing the curvature of the road immediately ahead, and adapting to it without hestitation, is just as important.

Or in other words: beware dynasty football dogma.
Last edited by ninotoreS on Wed May 11, 2016 3:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Phaded » Wed May 11, 2016 3:09 pm

The thing is though - I think most will agree that those late round guys aren't really in secure positions either.

Sure they are there now but I can see a lot of those guys being irrelevant in 1-2 years.

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby evorzan » Wed May 11, 2016 3:10 pm

This is one of the best things on these forums. I'm a numbers guy. Thanks again for doing this.
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby ninotoreS » Wed May 11, 2016 3:12 pm

PhadedCN wrote:The thing is though - I think most will agree that those late round guys aren't really in secure positions either.

Sure they are there now but I can see a lot of those guys being irrelevant in 1-2 years.
Definitely. Opportunity is opportunity, though. And RB being such a volatile position these days, there's argument to be made that people shouldn't be looking further than two years ahead regardless. Because we can't all have the Gurleys and Zekes. The 'zero-RB' strategy has become so popular in redraft for a reason.
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby evorzan » Wed May 11, 2016 3:14 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
PhadedCN wrote:The thing is though - I think most will agree that those late round guys aren't really in secure positions either.

Sure they are there now but I can see a lot of those guys being irrelevant in 1-2 years.
Definitely. Opportunity is opportunity, though. And RB being such a volatile position these days, there's argument to be made that people shouldn't be looking further than two years ahead regardless. Because we can't all have the Gurleys and Zekes. The 'zero-RB' strategy has become so popular in redraft for a reason.
A lot of Jules work would indicate that maybe we shouldn't even look farther than one year ahead, although I suppose that works on the assumption that one is in position to compete in the current year. A good mantra for zero-RB lately seems to be WR early and RB often.
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Telperion » Wed May 11, 2016 3:16 pm

Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin, Wes Welker, are you so sure that what we're seeing now with WR is anything different from what we've always seen? It seems to me that the road has not curved at all.

There may indeed be a curve in the RB road coming (I disagree) but your WR example does nothing to support that assertion.
Last edited by Telperion on Wed May 11, 2016 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby ninotoreS » Wed May 11, 2016 3:17 pm

Yep. And 'RB often' after 'WR early' translates to 4th-7th round picks and undrafted. Generally, speaking. A few 3rds can creep in there.
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Phaded » Wed May 11, 2016 3:19 pm

ninotoreS wrote:
PhadedCN wrote:The thing is though - I think most will agree that those late round guys aren't really in secure positions either.

Sure they are there now but I can see a lot of those guys being irrelevant in 1-2 years.
Definitely. Opportunity is opportunity, though. And RB being such a volatile position these days, there's argument to be made that people shouldn't be looking further than two years ahead regardless. Because we can't all have the Gurleys and Zekes. The 'zero-RB' strategy has become so popular in redraft for a reason.
Opportunity applies to all positions though. Not just RB.

Zero-RB is a thing because of the lack of high end talent in general right now. I'm a big supporter of it but those highly drafted RBs have a much higher probability of sustained success which even recent history supports.

There will always be exceptions but the odds are not in favour of those late picks.

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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby ninotoreS » Wed May 11, 2016 3:20 pm

Telperion wrote:Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin, Wes Welker, are you so sure that what we're seeing now with WR is acting different from what we've always seen? It seems to me that the road has not curved at all.

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Two of those names are from a completely different era from the others (and thus represent outliers falling within a separate sample-size... also Tim Brown was 6'0" and had like a 4.3 range forty), Welker comprises the post-2006 shift I referred to, and Colston was a height-speed (and weight, should have added that) specimen.

So that leaves you with Wayne, Harrison, and Boldin. All of whom are 6'0" or taller, and two of whom had 4.3-4 range 40 times.
PhadedCN wrote:There will always be exceptions but the odds are not in favour of those late picks.
The point is trend. And current trend sure seems to be giving the late picks and undrafted increasingly better odds to 'hit'. Better than 1sts, 2nds? Of course not. No way. But that's not the point.

Meanwhile, a bunch of these 1sts and 2nds end up as heartbreakers for dynasty teams, all the moreso because we spend so much more to acquire them. Meanwhile the guys that go fishing for the late-round/undrafted gems can stack up those flliers, increasing their odds to hit with one or two, and pay a lot less doing it. And when they don't hit, it's no big deal, or when they only have a year or two of relevance, it's no big deal.
Last edited by ninotoreS on Wed May 11, 2016 3:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Don't overthink NFL draft round

Postby Phaded » Wed May 11, 2016 3:33 pm

ninotoreS wrote:The point is trend. And current trend sure seems to be giving the late picks and undrafted increasingly better odds to 'hit'. Better than 1sts? Of course not. No way. But that's not the point.
Late round hit is not some brand new concept.

You're using just the strict number of active starters and co-starters to try to prove your point. It doesn't tell us they are more likely to hit than before because you are disregarding the immense amount of flops of 4th-7th rounders and UDFAa.

The pool size is a lot larger than RBs drafted in the first three rounds.


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