Cognitive Bias

[Pix]

Having seen this expression used by a few posters, I found this awesome list of 90 weaknesses that cloud our judgement.
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

I think it supports the argument that dynasty leagues are not like stock markets, since most of us don't invest large sums in systems to help us avoid these biases. But maybe I'm just exposing my own tendency towards confirmation bias.

So, can we use this knowledge to compensate for our biases and maybe exploit those of our leaguemates? That's one heck of a checklist to go through each time you consider a transaction.
Or if you want to start a self help group, I'll start by saying I suffer from most of them and don't understand the rest.
Or we could just have a game of cognitive bias bingo on the forum.

[clarion contrarion]

oh the metrics guys will love having the the waters this muddy in the search for a simple solution.

my favorite the dunning kruger effect ....people are too dumb or incompetent to not know what they don't know ... and the fact that it took two people apparently to name this grievous malady .
A man has got to know his limitations

[Pac_Eddy]

It's good read. My favorite line is from the opening paragraph:

"It is important to remember, however, that in every day life, just knowing about these biases doesn't necessarily free you from them."

I think the biggest take from all this is two people can look at the same data and be convinced of two totally different conclusions. You can't bludgeon a potential trade partner into agreeing with your values and accepting your offer.

[Telperion]

Non-metric people would accuse me of falling victim to anchoring and clustering when writing off certain rookies. They would rebut me with examples of a player or 2 with terrible metrics who succeeded, and I would call the Von Restorff Effect on them.

Who's right?

[MEuRaH]

Thank you for this link. It's going to come in handy for more than just fantasy football.

[dlf_jules]

Let's try this again.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Good call.

People reference these a lot (specifically confirmation bias, recency bias and herd instinct) to varying degrees of correct usage. The one that stands out in fantasy football to me that we don't see referenced around here is "Loss aversion", but it absolutely plays a major part in how people make fantasy decisions.

The premise is that the cost associated with losing an object is considered to be greater than the cost associated with acquiring it. Essentially, we're inclined to weigh the thought of somebody we traded away blowing up much more heavily than the idea of not acquiring a great player. We might feel bad that we turned down that offer for Montee Ball before 2014 that included Jeremy Hill, but the guy who did trade Hill away for Montee Ball feels much worse, even though it's the exact same thing.

[Hottoddies]

Messenger bias(not found so I'm making it up)- the validity of an argument or idea based on the perception of the merits of the messenger. Or conversely, the notion that by belittling the messenger you somehow prove that the message is less valid. I often find this bias in play in the name calling in political discourse.

*this post was in response to a parley of hostile responses that have since been swept under the rug(deleted). I guess the world would be a better place if we had more powerful janitors.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Messenger bias(not found so I'm making it up)- the validity of an argument or idea based on the perception of the merits of the messenger. Or conversely, the notion that by belittling the messenger you somehow prove that the message is less valid. I often find this bias in play in the name calling in political discourse.

Hey! These are actually real things, they're just not listed on that page. Great points though!

the validity of an argument or idea based on the perception of the merits of the messenger

This is the "argument from authority" logical fallacy. It's basically X said Y, and X is smart, so Y is true.

. Or conversely, the notion that by belittling the messenger you somehow prove that the message is less valid.

This is "ad hominem", and it's exactly what you said it is.

[dlf_jules]

. Or conversely, the notion that by belittling the messenger you somehow prove that the message is less valid.

This is "ad hominem", and it's exactly what you said it is.

Edited. You're killing me here.

[kadun2]

Hey Man, this is fantasy football....you guys are in rock bottom (SpongeBob reference). Waaay deep! jk

[OhCruelestRanter]

. Or conversely, the notion that by belittling the messenger you somehow prove that the message is less valid.

This is "ad hominem", and it's exactly what you said it is.

Edited. You're killing me here.

I thought that one was fair!

[maxhyde]

Nice find.