Please tell me I'm Crazy or Not

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Death_From_Above
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Please tell me I'm Crazy or Not

Postby Death_From_Above » Sun Mar 15, 2015 9:46 am

The DeMarco Murray owner in my league wants me to ship him Ryan Mathews for the 2.6 (18 overall) in our draft.

Now while I'm not delusional to the fact that having Murray, Mathews, Sproles and Polk (though I think he gets cut) in one offense limits the upside of almost all of them, I still see Mathews as a 180 carry (12 a game), 700 yd season (just under 4 ypc) and anywhere from 5 - 7 TDs.. You saw last year PHI doesn't substitute packages in, I believe when Mathews is on the field he is on the field.. So that means not substituting in a goal line back when they get to the red zone. I also see this as the floor for Mathews, and those numbers in my league with my scoring equates to high end RB2 numbers... A 180 point season.. For reference the number 10 guy in scoring for RBs last year in my league was Jeremey Hill at 197, and the number 15 guy was CJ Anderson at 180.. Thats where I see Mathews' floor.

Not only that but the dude is injury prone, I got it.. But it means he has had less carries throughout his career and playing in an offense where they can put in a two RB1 rotation on drives. Which to me means it will prolong his life in fantasy relevance.. And Murray isn't a spring chicken himself. He had a lot of carries last year, got paid his contract, so if he goes down Mathews inherits the farm.. Or if they do split the carries like I see where Mathews 40% and Murray gets 60% then thats less time on Mathews legs.. Which as I said prolongs Mathews relevance.

And to top it all off... This is the Kelly Eagles era, this dude has shaken things up a ton since he got full rights of the roster.. I'm not 100% he is done. Mathews, Bradford and the number 20 overall in the draft sure sounds like a good offer to move up in the draft to me.

Am I crazy or should I be taking this deal and running to the bank?

I dont need Mathews production, he is an extra commodity at this point, but you dont get ahead in dynasty by taking less than what something is worth. And the 18th overall to me is as good as a dart throw in the draft (we only draft offensive rookies in the draft). Mathews will be behind Morris, Forsett, and Ingram. We start 2 RBS and have 2 Flex Offensive positions but in a full PPR league its almost better to occupy that spot with a WR.

Thanks for the feedback in advance.

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Re: Please tell me I'm Crazy or Not

Postby Tsunami » Sun Mar 15, 2015 10:14 am

I certainly don't agree with your "floor" estimation. He might get hurt, or beat out by Sproles who played well, or just not fit the rhythm of the team. But all those things are certainly true for anyone you would find at 2.6, and none would have the incredible upside potential. Murray missing time is not that hard to imagine, and Mathews would be a top-5 RB those weeks. And that's at a lower price than some of the better handcuffs, I would buy in if I had roster room.

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Re: Please tell me I'm Crazy or Not

Postby klazk » Sun Mar 15, 2015 11:38 am

Ditto what Tsunami said. Definitely don't agree with your floor reasoning/calculation, but wouldn't trade him for the 2.6 either.
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Re: Please tell me I'm Crazy or Not

Postby Death_From_Above » Sun Mar 15, 2015 11:59 am

While I dont tend to put all my faith in the "Fantasy Expert" opinions.. this mirrored what I thought.
And for the nay sayers on the Mathews ypc avg of just under 4 I used for the calculation of a 700yd season with 180 carries (publicized and spoke of in interviews about an average of 12 carries a game in many sources) here is his ypc average for his whole career...
2014- 4.5 ypc avg
2013- 4.4 ypc avg
2012 - 3.8 ypc avg
2011- 4.9 ypc avg
2010- 4.3 ypc avg

I think my floor is just about right.

Article is pasted below:


DeMarco Murray signed with the Philadelphia Eagles yesterday ending any questions around where the the last big-name free agent of 2015 was going to land. The Eagles then proceeded to sign Ryan Mathews!?! These decision raises more questions for fantasy owners than answers. Murray was already a potential fantasy bust, because many people (including myself) felt Murray’s success was tied to his offensive line. He found a cut-back lane and signed with the one team whose offensive line was not only comparable, but rated higher by ProFootballFocus.com

DeMarco Murray got a massive work load last season as he led the NFL in rushing. His 393 rushing attempts (449 touches!) were 79 more than LeSean McCoy got with the Eagles (314) and he was second in rushing attempts. To add some perspective, those were 120+ more rushing attempts than Matt Forte, Alfred Morris and Arian Foster received. They were ranked fifth, sixth, and seventh among running backs. With Mathews and Darren Sproles in the mix at running back as well, fantasy owners can expect a sharp decrease in the amount of rushing opportunities for Murray in 2015. All is not lost, however.
The Eagles averaged 70 plays per game according to TeamRankings.com. They averaged 29 rushes per game, while throwing an average of 38 times per game. These signings indicate that the Eagles plan to run the ball more. In the past three seasons the leading rushing teams have averaged about 34 rushes per game. That gives us a ballpark figure of 544 rushing attempts, and we’ll round it down to 500 attempts to account for unforeseen circumstances.
When attempting to decipher DeMarco Murray’s fantasy value those rushing attempts become the baseline. LeSean McCoy averaged 353 touches the past two seasons in Philadelphia, but that workload seems unrealistic as Murray has more talent around him. Last season Sproles and Chris Polk combined for 103 rushes. Since Polk is likely out of Philadelphia it’s safe, at least for the purposes of this article, to project that Murray and Mathews are likely to split around 440 rushing attempts. Murray should get a minimum of 260 carries based on his salary alone and the fact that he will be the primary running back. That leaves Mathews will approximately 180 rushes on the season. Murray could go as high as 280 rushing attempts, but we are setting a baseline.
Philadelphia running backs averaged 4.2 yard per carry in 2014 as the offensive line battled injuries. In 2013, the running backs averaged 5.1 yards per carry, and 4.5 the year before. Those are consistently healthy numbers and helps us to project the value of the Eagle running backs heading into 2015.
Even with a reduced workload Demarco Murray will retain RB1 value in 2015. At 260 carries (Matt Forte, Alfred Morris and Arian Foster territory); averaging 4.4 yards per carry to account for the different blocking scheme he will run behind (and a healthy offensive line); Murray has a baseline of 1144 rushing yards with a projected minimum of eight touchdowns. His targets will be almost halved, as Chip Kelly is unlikely to change his play calling for his running backs. That is where Murray will take the biggest fantasy hit. From 70 targets to around 35. From 416 receiving yards to less than half. That gives Murray a projected total yardage of 1320+ yards.
This leaves DeMarco Murray in the projected RB 7/8/9 range for fantasy purposes. Around 180 points in standard scoring leagues, around 210 for ppr leagues. According to MFL the ADP for the RB7 is early in the third round. This is the same whether using a startup dynasty or redraft format. DeMarco Murray will still be an RB1 in 2015, but don’t spend a first round pick on him. He is more a late second-early third round selection given his workload and the talent around him.
These projections are based on Demarco Murray staying healthy for 16 games, something he and Ryan Mathews have each done once.

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Re: Please tell me I'm Crazy or Not

Postby knotts4372 » Sun Mar 15, 2015 12:03 pm

you mentioned that being his floor i will go totally on the other end and say i think unless demarco gets hurt that what you mentioned is his ceiling. i think the 2.6 is an overpay easily
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Re: Please tell me I'm Crazy or Not

Postby marmar » Sun Mar 15, 2015 1:33 pm

2.6>>Mathews.

#1, He is signed thru his 28/29/30 year old seasons.

#2, In 5 years he has played in 16 games once, his carries per year 157/222/184/285/74 so saying 180 carries is his floor as the backup is very questionable to me. Only 19 guys in total hit that 180 number last year all were from 19 different teams.

#3, 700 yards and 6 tds is 180 pts? I see that as 106 pts. Unless you are saying that the other 74pts are going to be from ppr. His receiving numbers for his career are 22/50/39/26/9 and now he plays behind Murray as the #2 rb and behind Sproles as the 3rd down rb. Lets keep in mind last year Sproles 40/ McCoy 28/ Polk 2. McCoy had 28/155/0tds for 43.5 ppr pts last year. Murray had 57/416 last year btw.

So saying that Mathews will be in the top 20 in the NFL for attempts (180), and he is going to double what McCoy did in terms of PPR(43.5) to reach that FLOOR of 180 pts is a bit CRAZY to me, unless a major injury occurs.
Last edited by marmar on Sun Mar 15, 2015 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Please tell me I'm Crazy or Not

Postby adammc44 » Sun Mar 15, 2015 1:58 pm

I think his floor is lower than that as well but it comes down to your preference and he would seem ro be worth more to the murray owner than the average owner. If youd rather have him for depth purposes than have the 2.6 then keep him. I dont think you should be counting on his value or production going up though. i wouldnt be surprised to see him post those numbers but i would be if he had a weekly consistency barring a murray injury.

Wheres the murray owners number 1 relative to yours? If you can move up from say 1.9 or later to 1.6 id do that in a heartbeat considering who else you have. depends a good bit on how he values having the handcuff.
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Re: Please tell me I'm Crazy or Not

Postby Spinkso » Sun Mar 15, 2015 2:03 pm

I think the assumption that Ryan Mathews would be a top 5 RB if Murray missed time is off. Darren Sproles role will not change regardless of DM and RM's status. He will be the third down back, and time to time, Sproles will get redzone/goal line touches. LeSean McCoy, who I believe is a lot better than DeMarco Murray, didn't post top 10 RB numbers last year. I don't see how Mathews could do what McCoy could not, in any situation.
Let's also not forget that Philly just lost a guard, and rumored to have Evan Mathis on the block as well.

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Re: Please tell me I'm Crazy or Not

Postby MARKinMI » Sun Mar 15, 2015 2:17 pm

i tried trading Ryan Mathews (who I like from a skill point of view) to the Murray owner in one league because he's a contender that HAS to have that Philly starting RB all season. This is the offer i sent:

Ryan Mathews, 1.12 & 4.01 (12 team league) for 1.10 and 2.10. It was rejected with no counter

So basically i wanted a 2 spot bump in round 1 and what is basically little more than 1 round bump in the late 2nd.

I believe Demarco Murray WILL miss time this season and Ryan Mathews will be extremely valuable while he's gone. If somebody offered me 2.06 I'd take it in a heartbeat and I believe in Mathews' talent and own him in every league. I own Murray in two of those leagues and consider Mathews invaluable to those teams. IMO if you pair up Murray and Mathews as one starter you'll have 15 fantasy weeks (bye week) of elite RB scoring.
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Re: Please tell me I'm Crazy or Not

Postby cc texan » Sun Mar 15, 2015 2:35 pm

marmar wrote:2.6>>Mathews.

#1, He is signed thru his 28/29/30 year old seasons.

#2, In 5 years he has played in 16 games once, his carries per year 157/222/184/285/74 so saying 180 carries is his floor as the backup is very questionable to me. Only 19 guys in total hit that 180 number last year all were from 19 different teams.

#3, 700 yards and 6 tds is 180 pts? I see that as 106 pts. Unless you are saying that the other 74pts are going to be from ppr. His receiving numbers for his career are 22/50/39/26/9 and now he plays behind Murray as the #2 rb and behind Sproles as the 3rd down rb. Lets keep in mind last year Sproles 40/ McCoy 28/ Polk 2. McCoy had 28/155/0tds for 43.5 ppr pts last year. Murray had 57/416 last year btw.

So saying that Mathews will be in the top 20 in the NFL for attempts (180), and he is going to double what McCoy did in terms of PPR(43.5) to reach that FLOOR of 180 pts is a bit CRAZY to me, unless a major injury occurs.
^This is some rock solid analysis. While we may all be wrong about Mathews this year, his history certainly doesn't indicate a 180 carry floor for him.

I'm going to go with "crazy" on this one, and would much rather have the 2.06 over Mathews.
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Re: Please tell me I'm Crazy or Not

Postby Tsunami » Sun Mar 15, 2015 4:00 pm

Spinkso wrote:I think the assumption that Ryan Mathews would be a top 5 RB if Murray missed time is off. Darren Sproles role will not change regardless of DM and RM's status. He will be the third down back, and time to time, Sproles will get redzone/goal line touches. LeSean McCoy, who I believe is a lot better than DeMarco Murray, didn't post top 10 RB numbers last year. I don't see how Mathews could do what McCoy could not, in any situation.
Let's also not forget that Philly just lost a guard, and rumored to have Evan Mathis on the block as well.
Top-5 may have been exaggerating, but when he's healthy I think Mathews is as effective as Murray or McCoy. To the person who said Mathews would be playing "behind" Murray, I think that belief is based mostly on stats rather than talent, it might be a more even split than you think if they both stay healthy.

LeSean had a down year, but let's not forget the starting QB was Mark Sanchez. McCoy was top-2 in 2013 and top-12 in 2014, so a talented RB in a healthy Eagles offense is capable of somewhere in that range. Sproles only had 57 carries and 60 targets last season, this doesn't explain all of the difference, particularly in a non-PPR format. Polk and Sproles did steal 9 rushing TDs, but this isn't necessarily going to happen with Murray or Mathews who are both bigger than McCoy. If DeMarco Murray hadn't signed I would fully have expected Mathews to be a top-10 if not top-5 RB, when healthy.

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Re: Please tell me I'm Crazy or Not

Postby ArrylT » Sun Mar 15, 2015 4:15 pm

Unless Bradford can stay healthy, a big if, you can expect a lot more of Sanchez again. Seems there is a lot of speculation re health of each player so I would go with what your gut says. My gut says take the pick but if your gut says otherwise ...
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