Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

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Billy McFred
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Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby Billy McFred » Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:05 pm

So I've been reading posts by people who claim they know it all, they scoff at the consensus, they say they knew this and that about whichever player a long time ago. Can you please post your insight about the players in here? Whose going to be good, whose going to be a bust. Because whenever I read your posts it's just "i watch film and i am more accurate compared to everyone else" or "i knew he was going to suck" or "He was consensus rank 9 but he was 1 on my board!" yet i don't see your player evaluations offered or which players these statements refer to this year. I'm not being sarcastic either, I really want to know so I can draft the right people. Thanks.
12 team, 0.5 PPR, 18 keeper, 25 roster spot, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1FLEX
Notable Draft Picks: 1.04, 1.06

QB - Big Ben, RGIII
RB - Hyde, Latavius Murray, Gio Bernard, Bryce Brown
WR - Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Allen Robinson, Charles Johnson, Stedman Bailey, Justin Hunter, Marvin Jones, Marquess Wilson
TE - Eifert, ASJ, Amaro

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Re: Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:16 pm

Billy McFred wrote:So I've been reading posts by people who claim they know it all, they scoff at the consensus, they say they knew this and that about whichever player a long time ago. Can you please post your insight about the players in here? Whose going to be good, whose going to be a bust. Because whenever I read your posts it's just "i watch film and i am more accurate compared to everyone else" or "i knew he was going to suck" or "He was consensus rank 9 but he was 1 on my board!" yet i don't see your player evaluations offered or which players these statements refer to this year. I'm not being sarcastic either, I really want to know so I can draft the right people. Thanks.
This year's draft class I like Gordon and Cooper. More than Gurley or White. Not saying much, but I would rank Gordon over Gurley, the consensus number 1. I would take Gordon, Cooper or White over Gurley. A guy I like later on that not a lot of people talk about it Tyler Lockett. Small guy, but runs great routes, highly productive in college, and had a great combine. The only thing he has going against him is size, he's 5ft 10, 180 lbs, but then again so is Antonio Brown, so you never know. The whole thing about Gurley is more of a gut feeling, that he will continue to deal with injuries based on history and running style, butting dropping him down to 4 or 5 isn't that much of a stretch. Ultimately, you have to make your own decisions, but it's a good idea to get feedback.

By the way, we are all know it alls, funny how our opinions differ, though. :lol:
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Re: Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby Tsunami » Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:23 am

Billy McFred wrote:So I've been reading posts by people who claim they know it all, they scoff at the consensus, they say they knew this and that about whichever player a long time ago. Can you please post your insight about the players in here? Whose going to be good, whose going to be a bust. Because whenever I read your posts it's just "i watch film and i am more accurate compared to everyone else" or "i knew he was going to suck" or "He was consensus rank 9 but he was 1 on my board!" yet i don't see your player evaluations offered or which players these statements refer to this year. I'm not being sarcastic either, I really want to know so I can draft the right people. Thanks.
"Who's" is a contraction that means "who is" while "whose" means a thing that is a possession of someone.

It's an insult to us know-it-alls to group us in with those people who are absolutely sure they can predict the future, or those other people who brag about being first to know something they had nothing to do with so as to glom on to their success. :nono:

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Re: Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby clarion contrarion » Mon Feb 23, 2015 3:20 am

the primary factor in being a certified know it all is the ability to ignore other would be know it alls or other think they know it alls ^ ^^
the reason I hesitate to post my ranking even though they will be the gospel :biggrin: is this site is frequented by many a league mate
and if they know how much I think of david cobb or tyler lockett it can make it very difficult to get those guys if they slide . I have a solid record in dynasty leagues winning 3 of 4 last year and endorsing and drafting Hill Robinson and Adams while foregoing Lee Sankey & Ebron.
does that make me an expert nope not even close but if my way is the right way I would rather they not know until after the draft at least
.....this has been a public service announcement from forum superstar clarion contrarion
QB luck- driskell
WR ant brown evans c davis golladay godwin gordon j washington doctson watson lazard patrick henderson
RB mixon cohen chubb aaron jones hunt malcolm brown
TE eifert howard njoku
K tucker DEF pittsburgh chicago
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Re: Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby TommyL31 » Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:44 am

Ha, love this topic. I will say I don't have a huge problem with people confirming that they held if they can point to a time stamped post of stating said opinion. For instance, in the "Screw the Majority" post the OP and Bobby Bruiser both stated that Kevin White was their 1.01 so if they want to bring that up now that everyone fell in love with his combine I have no problem with that but when people just randomly state stuff after the fact like:

"Well I never had Trent Richardson as a top 10 rookie pick coming out. I saw major red flags." or
"Le'Veon Bell was my #1 RB prior to last year." I take stuff like that with a HEAVY grain of salt

Can't remember which poster it was but one guy had/has a signature that instead of his team was something to the effect of:

"Give me crap if I'm higher than most on these guys:
Player A
Player B etc.

Give me crap if I'm lower than most on these guys:
Player C
Player D etc."

I thought that was brilliant and took a lot of guts. If someone isn't will to tell you a colossal mistake they've made I'm hesitant to believe any of their wins. Quite frankly I think it's EASIER to remember where you've missed than where you've hit because it stings more.

2 of my biggest misses:
Kenny Britt - traded Jamaal Charles for him when they were both coming off their injury seasons. Set a rebuild back about 2 years
Tavon Austin - yeah, many were high on him but I picked him at the 1.01. I still think he's better than he's looked but it's clear that at the 1.01 he was a horrific mistake
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Re: Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby Billy McFred » Mon Feb 23, 2015 8:12 am

clarion contrarion wrote: the reason I hesitate to post my ranking even though they will be the gospel :biggrin: is this site is frequented by many a league mate
and if they know how much I think of david cobb or tyler lockett it can make it very difficult to get those guys if they slide . I have a solid record in dynasty leagues winning 3 of 4 last year and endorsing and drafting Hill Robinson and Adams while foregoing Lee Sankey & Ebron.
At least send me a PM or something! Help a bro out!


TommyL31 wrote:when people just randomly state stuff after the fact like:

"Well I never had Trent Richardson as a top 10 rookie pick coming out. I saw major red flags." or
"Le'Veon Bell was my #1 RB prior to last year." I take stuff like that with a HEAVY grain of salt
Exactly, why not tell everyone BEFORE so we can ALL share the wealth!!!
12 team, 0.5 PPR, 18 keeper, 25 roster spot, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1FLEX
Notable Draft Picks: 1.04, 1.06

QB - Big Ben, RGIII
RB - Hyde, Latavius Murray, Gio Bernard, Bryce Brown
WR - Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Allen Robinson, Charles Johnson, Stedman Bailey, Justin Hunter, Marvin Jones, Marquess Wilson
TE - Eifert, ASJ, Amaro

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Re: Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby clarion contrarion » Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:16 am

PM is possible , but like I mentioned I am hesitant to just throw stuff out for fear of espionage .... also agree with TOMMY31
anyone that say they are always right after the fact are to be ignored mostly
we all have our mikel leshoure , cordy patterson justin hunter moments .
One method I always use is to go back after the season and look at draft results where my picks are and whom I chose , I strive at my picks to take the best player left and if I didn't was my pick logical . If I draft watkins or evans w/ beckham still on the board that is OK because few if anyone saw that coming and the few that may have well they kept it to themselves . Smart money was on watkins or evans ,you could even talk me into cooks - as I was on record as being sky high on and one of the 1st on board around these parts as he wasn't in the top 10 wr on most any early wr board and whom I loved due to watching tape and seeing he always had separation . That said I liked him way early and way more than his early value but he rocketed up the charts and I was out because I wasn't drafting a little wr in the
top 5 ( personal bias).
But if I drafted benjamin or matthews or god forbid any of the other wrs why did I miss on beckham - as I actually liked his teammate landry better who looked like hines ward jr too me. I thought beckham looked like a 9 route guy w/ suspect hands that was closer to teddy ginn jr than jerry rice ... and yes I did smack myself in the testicles with a ball peen hammer for that analysis.
Often times I end with the best pick of a round if I don't I wanna know why and how to not miss again next time .
IF you pick white instead of cooper you may nail the pick but if you don't - what caused you to ggo with the 1 year wonder guy from a school that has produced a bunch of fantasy nobodies and passed on the guy that crushed julio jones school records with a terrible qb

After last years drafts across 4 leagues and 21 picks I question 2 1 I picked matthews at 1:7 beckham went 1:9 crazy qb & rb picks
and anoother I picked storm johnson w/ jarvis landry on the board although I did trade johnson for a 16 1st the next day so I forgive myself for that... I don't always do that well but I was out on ebron freeman lee sankey and the qbs and it just didn't matter where they dropped to I didn't want them .... the only guys I really missed on were beckham to an extent , although I did trade for him after his 1st game in aleague and that was well ....... awesome and tre mason he was far better than I thought he would be this early.
.....this has been a public service announcement from forum superstar clarion contrarion
QB luck- driskell
WR ant brown evans c davis golladay godwin gordon j washington doctson watson lazard patrick henderson
RB mixon cohen chubb aaron jones hunt malcolm brown
TE eifert howard njoku
K tucker DEF pittsburgh chicago
2012 , 2014 2015 2016 2017 & 2018 ACDL Champion 5 IN A ROW 6 in 7 years- now that is dynasty!
2013 ACDL runner up
2013 2014 2017 & 2018 (Undefeated 15-0 ) WORILDS OF HURT CHAMPION
2010 2014 & 2015 7 Rings for Steeltown CHAMPION 2011 & 2013 7 rings runner up
2018 Experts Dynasty League Champion
there is no after football
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.
— Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby Vectorgod » Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:24 am

People who think they know everything are very annoying to those of us who do! :lol:

I feel the same way as you. I really get tired of seeing people chime in with that "oh yeah I knew that guy was going to suck" response when an honest owner is lamenting the bad draft pick(s) he made last year. I am FAR from an expert on player evaluations and prefer to gather the opinions of many others who are probably smarter than me. There are several active posters in this forum who I listen to very closely, and there are several others who just get scrolled by when I see their names. Sorry, not going to name names and start a whole different argument here.

On the other hand I am not completely clueless, either. As I watch games, highlights, the combine, etc., I sometimes find a particular player jumping out at me. Usually nothing I can put my finger on specifically, just something I like about how a particular guy plays. Those guys get an asterisk on my draft/FA/waivers list. (Refer to the "screw the majority" thread.) Last year the guy that leaped out at me was Mike Evans. I liked him well enough that I traded down in one league from 1.01 for 1.02 and 1.06--I knew the other guy wanted Watkins badly, and I was happy to give up Watkins for Evans and Jordan Matthews. Many people still argue that Watkins will be better long-term than Evans but I love the value I got in Evans/Matthews over Watkins, especially when Evans was "my guy"!

As painful as it is, I have to admit that I whiffed on Mark Ingram with the 1.01 pick in one league and still own him there. I was also a huge fan of RG3 and still own him in 2 leagues. On the other hand, I grabbed Jimmy Graham above his ADP in a rookie draft and am still enjoying that steal. It was made even sweeter when the defending league champion with the very next pick wailed that I snatched his pick!

The only player I can recall arguing vehemently for on this forum was Antonio Brown. In 2013 I worked very hard to pick him up in every league I could, and I argued here that it was ridiculous most people did not consider Brown as one of the "big 5" receivers. I even argued that I considered him #1 until proven otherwise, and I still stand by that. He and Jamaal carried me to 4 championship games and 2 titles last year!

I have found in several of my leagues that there are particular owner who excel at evaluating certain positions. There is one guy who plays in 3 of my leagues who always has a great roster of receivers. Another guy usually has the best group of running backs, while yet another always seems to hit on young QBs. I seem to have a knack for hitting on solid TEs in most of my leagues. I see the same trends here as I read more opinions posted by regular contributors. Again no names, sorry!

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Re: Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby TommyL31 » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:02 am

Related so I thought I'd post it here. I was going back thinking of some of the guys I've hit on and I have always been particularly proud of getting Keenan Allen with the 2.1. Then I looked back at how that draft went and realized that when the 1.12 was on the clock Justin Hunter and Keenan Allen were still on the board and I thought what a great position I was in because Hunter and Allen were the end of a pretty significant tier drop for me (to the Markus Wheaton and Aaron Dobson's of the world) so whoever the 1.12 selected, my choice was going to be obvious. Luckily for me he selected Hunter and Allen fell to me.

It could easily still be argued that Hunter holds more value than most of the guys who went after him on potential alone but we should all step back and realize that there's a reasonable dose of luck involved too.
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Re: Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby Monkey » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:12 am

I try to take a hybrid approach as best I can. I read articles, I look at the numbers and box scores, I watch the tape. I am not an expert. I'm still very much learning what I'm even looking for when I watch tape. So I blend how I feel about players with rankings from DLF and other sources. I take a look at the communities feelings because you can find unique takes on players. Overall, gather as much information as you can and it averages out a bit. Find the players you like and draft them. If they work out, you get a nice feeling about it. If not, at least you tried. It's better than passing on a guy you felt good about and regretting it.

Generally I find people enjoy saying "I told you so" more than they like saying "I was wrong"

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Re: Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby Billy McFred » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:19 pm

I suppose I should have expected this, but I specifically said post your insights here that will help us all, not what you did in the past. This is very strange, can you know-it-alls only do one thing, brag about past success?
12 team, 0.5 PPR, 18 keeper, 25 roster spot, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1FLEX
Notable Draft Picks: 1.04, 1.06

QB - Big Ben, RGIII
RB - Hyde, Latavius Murray, Gio Bernard, Bryce Brown
WR - Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Allen Robinson, Charles Johnson, Stedman Bailey, Justin Hunter, Marvin Jones, Marquess Wilson
TE - Eifert, ASJ, Amaro

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Re: Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby TommyL31 » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:25 pm

Billy McFred wrote:I suppose I should have expected this, but I specifically said post your insights here that will help us all, not what you did in the past. This is very strange, can you know-it-alls only do one thing, brag about past success?
Wait was that a serious question and this a serious request? I thought you were being sarcastic and saying "Don't you hate it when guys do this" as kind of a group gripe thread.
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Legends of the Gridiron - Boss Hawgs, 12 team PPR Superflex Salary Cap league
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Re: Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby voiceofunreason » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:28 pm

Could just pm dlfield next time

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Re: Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby Billy McFred » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:43 pm

TommyL31 wrote: Wait was that a serious question and this a serious request? I thought you were being sarcastic and saying "Don't you hate it when guys do this" as kind of a group gripe thread.
Billy McFred wrote: I'm not being sarcastic either, I really want to know so I can draft the right people. Thanks.
12 team, 0.5 PPR, 18 keeper, 25 roster spot, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1FLEX
Notable Draft Picks: 1.04, 1.06

QB - Big Ben, RGIII
RB - Hyde, Latavius Murray, Gio Bernard, Bryce Brown
WR - Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Allen Robinson, Charles Johnson, Stedman Bailey, Justin Hunter, Marvin Jones, Marquess Wilson
TE - Eifert, ASJ, Amaro

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Re: Know-It-Alls, we need your insight here!

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:34 pm

I think you're going to find that many people take Contrarian's point of view with regard to this topic, but I wish you luck in getting forum members to post their draft rankings before they've had their 2015 rookie drafts.

Most people, myself included don't often get to involved in listing our personal preferences on players for the very reason he states. There's a lot of traffic here and league mates may be watching. There are at least two owners from my league I've identified on DLF - but not contacted - as I don't want them to know their cover is blown. Discussing the merits of player A over player B, sure I'll do that all day. Telling you where I value them or where I'd draft them? Not so much.

I don't consider myself a know-it-all. Or a know-very-much. I've got an opinion just like everybody else here, I just choose to keep some level of secrecy when it comes to player rankings until my league mates and I have thrown our darts at the big board. Then it's time to brag about the value you got at 2.06, etc... (which you may be proven wrong about by on-field performance). We all have hits and misses just like the folks who do this for a living.
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QB: R. Wilson, L. Jackson
RB: J. Mixon, N. Chubb, M. Breida, L. Murray, J. Jackson
WR:M. Thomas, T.Y. Hilton, C. Godwin, S. Watkins, D. Pettis, J. Reynolds, H. Butler
TE: T. Kelce, E. Engram, D. Njoku
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