2015 Combine Observations

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voiceofunreason
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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby voiceofunreason » Sun Feb 22, 2015 1:56 pm

Voiceofunreason wrote:
FantasyFreak wrote:
So Abdullah being slow for a 230lb back doesn't worry you because the 40 isn't that important, but a stiff like Langford is all of a sudden good just because of his 40?

Basically the top 10 rbs were all slower than people would have guessed so it's obviously disappointing. Considering it was hyped up as the best rb class in 8 years, or whatever, it'd pretty hard to be that impressed. Is that really surprising to you?
[/color]

You disregard all the other drills and focus on the 40, which has less to do with football than any other drill for a RB, so yes, I'm surprised you guys are so wrapped up about a 40 time, because the game of football isn't played on a track lane. The RB class is deep because they are good football players. The shuttle drills are way more important anyway, if you want combine results. And about Langford, I was saying that the 40 time was impressive because you guys were saying all the RB's disappointed you, and I was pointing out his good 40 time because so many of you seemed so concerned with the 40. I was saying, how does Langford's 40 disappoint what you expected?
So the studies showing 40 times relate most to rb success are fake;) And I'm not talking about the ones linked on DLF lately, I've seen in-depth studies from more reliable sources. Basically guys who run over 4.6 that do well are pretty rare even for 230 pounders. When a rb is 200 lbs, it's almost a zero success rate. If you know some better drills to gauge success, please go back 10 years and prove it with some data. We're all here looking for new angles and I'd love to see the numbers.

For me running back has a lot to do with, wait for it...running. If you are slow it's hard to have success unless you can run people over. Of course agility plays a part but is harder to measure (hence watching tape). It's not a 100% indicator of success but a players speed and size are as close as it gets that I've seen.

Once again, almost all the top 10 guys disappointed at least a little. It's really not as complicated as you are making it. I want to like a players tape and have it confirmed that he's a good athlete.

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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby Goirish374 » Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:23 pm

voiceofunreason wrote:So the studies showing 40 times relate most to rb success are fake;)
well, they're not "fake."

they exist.

methodological flaws are a consistent problem in football because assessments are chronically underpowered for the differences they're trying to show.

i'm not convinced we'll ever get the kind of good studies we want in fantasy football--not in the meaningful way we want to use the word "study" anyway. we may end up settling on a body of evidence that is somewhere between "close enough" and "better than nothing."

whether misleading data are, in fact, better than nothing is a valid but separate question.
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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby clarion contrarion » Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:52 pm

Goirish374 wrote:
voiceofunreason wrote:So the studies showing 40 times relate most to rb success are fake;)
well, they're not "fake."

they exist.

methodological flaws are a consistent problem in football because assessments are chronically underpowered for the differences they're trying to show.

i'm not convinced we'll ever get the kind of good studies we want in fantasy football--not in the meaningful way we want to use the word "study" anyway. we may end up settling on a body of evidence that is somewhere between "close enough" and "better than nothing."

whether misleading data are, in fact, better than nothing is a valid but separate question.

to me no data is far better than flawed or poor data ....... I forego any metric based studies because none measure heart or situation
I look at very limited factors ... YPC AGE TAPE & conference/school history in the NFL , the last factor has me perplexed about gordon who is my 1:1 at this point but the wisky rbs have been pedestrian to be kind ... he is however quite different than any since michael bennett .
It did help me miss the heartache involved in owning ryan mathews or any of the VTECH rbs ... rbs from mathews conference were non factors (martin a one year exception) so I passed. Same logic has me worried about ajayi . All the hokeys have been jokey as pros, helped me miss the ryan williams david wilson etc. train wrecks.
It is far from fool proof and I will miss prospects for sure but every other system or metric I have seen has exceptions including the ones that spend far more time and effort with no better results .
I know you scientific studious :ugeek: types will scoff or dismiss it but that is OK , I will likely keep on winning :biggrin: .
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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:52 pm

Plank wrote:
Cameron Giles wrote:
Plank wrote: I think the T.O. Comp belongs to Devante Davis in this class...
Shhhhhhhh!
haha, I mean if he wasn't so slow and played like a pansy.
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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby Goirish374 » Sun Feb 22, 2015 4:06 pm

clarion contrarion wrote:to me no data is far better than flawed or poor data
clarion contrarion wrote:I know you scientific studious :ugeek: types will scoff or dismiss it
nope. in fact, i was agreeing with you :D
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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby clarion contrarion » Sun Feb 22, 2015 4:38 pm

heck I was agreeing and expanding on what you said or at least attempting to do so
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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby Team Tacos » Sun Feb 22, 2015 5:19 pm

clarion contrarion wrote:
Goirish374 wrote:
voiceofunreason wrote:So the studies showing 40 times relate most to rb success are fake;)
well, they're not "fake."

they exist.

methodological flaws are a consistent problem in football because assessments are chronically underpowered for the differences they're trying to show.

i'm not convinced we'll ever get the kind of good studies we want in fantasy football--not in the meaningful way we want to use the word "study" anyway. we may end up settling on a body of evidence that is somewhere between "close enough" and "better than nothing."

whether misleading data are, in fact, better than nothing is a valid but separate question.

to me no data is far better than flawed or poor data ....... I forego any metric based studies because none measure heart or situation
I look at very limited factors ... YPC AGE TAPE & conference/school history in the NFL , the last factor has me perplexed about gordon who is my 1:1 at this point but the wisky rbs have been pedestrian to be kind ... he is however quite different than any since michael bennett .
It did help me miss the heartache involved in owning ryan mathews or any of the VTECH rbs ... rbs from mathews conference were non factors (martin a one year exception) so I passed. Same logic has me worried about ajayi . All the hokeys have been jokey as pros, helped me miss the ryan williams david wilson etc. train wrecks.
It is far from fool proof and I will miss prospects for sure but every other system or metric I have seen has exceptions including the ones that spend far more time and effort with no better results .
I know you scientific studious :ugeek: types will scoff or dismiss it but that is OK , I will likely keep on winning :biggrin: .
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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Feb 22, 2015 5:24 pm

voiceofunreason wrote:
Voiceofunreason wrote:
FantasyFreak wrote:
So Abdullah being slow for a 230lb back doesn't worry you because the 40 isn't that important, but a stiff like Langford is all of a sudden good just because of his 40?

Basically the top 10 rbs were all slower than people would have guessed so it's obviously disappointing. Considering it was hyped up as the best rb class in 8 years, or whatever, it'd pretty hard to be that impressed. Is that really surprising to you?
[/color]

You disregard all the other drills and focus on the 40, which has less to do with football than any other drill for a RB, so yes, I'm surprised you guys are so wrapped up about a 40 time, because the game of football isn't played on a track lane. The RB class is deep because they are good football players. The shuttle drills are way more important anyway, if you want combine results. And about Langford, I was saying that the 40 time was impressive because you guys were saying all the RB's disappointed you, and I was pointing out his good 40 time because so many of you seemed so concerned with the 40. I was saying, how does Langford's 40 disappoint what you expected?
So the studies showing 40 times relate most to rb success are fake;) And I'm not talking about the ones linked on DLF lately, I've seen in-depth studies from more reliable sources. Basically guys who run over 4.6 that do well are pretty rare even for 230 pounders. When a rb is 200 lbs, it's almost a zero success rate. If you know some better drills to gauge success, please go back 10 years and prove it with some data. We're all here looking for new angles and I'd love to see the numbers.

For me running back has a lot to do with, wait for it...running. If you are slow it's hard to have success unless you can run people over. Of course agility plays a part but is harder to measure (hence watching tape). It's not a 100% indicator of success but a players speed and size are as close as it gets that I've seen.

Once again, almost all the top 10 guys disappointed at least a little. It's really not as complicated as you are making it. I want to like a players tape and have it confirmed that he's a good athlete.
FO's Speed Score has a .45 correlation with NFL RB success. That's a much better number than you'll get from any other piece of combine data, and it comes from an intuitive study that's repeatable and testable. Moreso, when the formula misses, it usually misses on a specific type of RB (the complete back who lands in a great offense) meaning that you know when to be less concerned about a poor score. I rarely put too much stock in statisical analysis of college prospects because there's so much damn noise, but speed score is gold. If anybody could show me a way of evaluating college players that correlates better than .45, I'd be absolutely thrilled. Thrilled.

And yes, this was a bad year for RBs at the combine. Gordon's score wasn't bad, so it won't hurt his stock, but I think a lot of us wanted him to get under 4.5 flat. Karlos Williams obviously killed it, and Ajayi didn't really let me down. For what was seen as a really talented RB group, I don't see how anybody can spin the combine as anything other than a disappointment.
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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Feb 22, 2015 5:29 pm

voiceofunreason wrote:
Voiceofunreason wrote:
FantasyFreak wrote:
So Abdullah being slow for a 230lb back doesn't worry you because the 40 isn't that important, but a stiff like Langford is all of a sudden good just because of his 40?

Basically the top 10 rbs were all slower than people would have guessed so it's obviously disappointing. Considering it was hyped up as the best rb class in 8 years, or whatever, it'd pretty hard to be that impressed. Is that really surprising to you?
[/color]

You disregard all the other drills and focus on the 40, which has less to do with football than any other drill for a RB, so yes, I'm surprised you guys are so wrapped up about a 40 time, because the game of football isn't played on a track lane. The RB class is deep because they are good football players. The shuttle drills are way more important anyway, if you want combine results. And about Langford, I was saying that the 40 time was impressive because you guys were saying all the RB's disappointed you, and I was pointing out his good 40 time because so many of you seemed so concerned with the 40. I was saying, how does Langford's 40 disappoint what you expected?
So the studies showing 40 times relate most to rb success are fake;) And I'm not talking about the ones linked on DLF lately, I've seen in-depth studies from more reliable sources. Basically guys who run over 4.6 that do well are pretty rare even for 230 pounders. When a rb is 200 lbs, it's almost a zero success rate. If you know some better drills to gauge success, please go back 10 years and prove it with some data. We're all here looking for new angles and I'd love to see the numbers.

For me running back has a lot to do with, wait for it...running. If you are slow it's hard to have success unless you can run people over. Of course agility plays a part but is harder to measure (hence watching tape). It's not a 100% indicator of success but a players speed and size are as close as it gets that I've seen.

Once again, almost all the top 10 guys disappointed at least a little. It's really not as complicated as you are making it. I want to like a players tape and have it confirmed that he's a good athlete.
:shock: What do you think the shuttles are? Much more the type of running that RB's do in an actual game. I'm not saying Abdullah's 40 time was good, it wasn't. It was disappointing, but he killed the other drills. I'm not even a big Abdullah guy, but his numbers were really good, other than the 40. Jeremy hill ran a 4.6 plus, and that didn't stop him from busting out several long TD's this year, one of 85 yards or so. Just saying that I think the fact some of these guys performed really well in all the other drills is being overlooked because they didn't run an eye popping 40.
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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Feb 22, 2015 5:34 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: :shock: What do you think the shuttles are? Much more the type of running that RB's do in an actual game. I'm not saying Abdullah's 40 time was good, it wasn't. It was disappointing, but he killed the other drills. I'm not even a big Abdullah guy, but his numbers were really good, other than the 40. Jeremy hill ran a 4.6 plus, and that didn't stop him from busting out several long TD's this year, one of 85 yards or so. Just saying that I think the fact some of these guys performed really well in all the other drills is being overlooked because they didn't run an eye popping 40.
There's no correlation between the shuttle and NFL RB success. It's been tested. It doesn't exist. I just posted that link a couple pages back. The reason those other drills are being ignored is that they have been demonstrated to have no usefulness in predicting NFL success among RB prospects.

Jeremy Hill ran a 4.6 40 at a significantly higher weight than Abdullah. His speed score was average for a highly drafted RB. The problem isn't that Abdullah ran a 4.6, it's that he ran a 4.6 at a size where RBs typically have to be burners to find success in the NFL.
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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Feb 22, 2015 6:13 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
FantasyFreak wrote: :shock: What do you think the shuttles are? Much more the type of running that RB's do in an actual game. I'm not saying Abdullah's 40 time was good, it wasn't. It was disappointing, but he killed the other drills. I'm not even a big Abdullah guy, but his numbers were really good, other than the 40. Jeremy hill ran a 4.6 plus, and that didn't stop him from busting out several long TD's this year, one of 85 yards or so. Just saying that I think the fact some of these guys performed really well in all the other drills is being overlooked because they didn't run an eye popping 40.
There's no correlation between the shuttle and NFL RB success. It's been tested. It doesn't exist. I just posted that link a couple pages back. The reason those other drills are being ignored is that they have been demonstrated to have no usefulness in predicting NFL success among RB prospects.

Jeremy Hill ran a 4.6 40 at a significantly higher weight than Abdullah. His speed score was average for a highly drafted RB. The problem isn't that Abdullah ran a 4.6, it's that he ran a 4.6 at a size where RBs typically have to be burners to find success in the NFL.
OK. So how does Gio fit in here, or shady? The both ran 4.5, same as Gordon who is significantly bigger. Shady has had a great deal of success, while Gio has had some moderate success. Just two off the top of my head. Abdullah is about their size and ran a 4.6 plus, so how do you co-relate all of this? Gordon is a fast as Gio and Shady, but has 10 pounds or so on them, so is that good? Abdullah is slower but the same weight so that's bad? That would make sense. I'm just saying Abdullah is about short space quickness, that's his game, so the shuttle simply shows you what the tape is showing you. He's not a burner.

I have been watching a lot of Gordon, and everybody has been saying he can't be used as a receiver, but he caught the ball extremely well, but I haven't heard that mentioned by anyone else. Surely that's a good sign, to see if you have him as a possible player to draft, no?

How do you feel about Duke Johnson being outrun by Gordon? How do you feel about Yeldon posting a similar time to Abdullah? Is a 4.6 for Yeldon at nearly 230 disappointing/average?
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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby Billy McFred » Sun Feb 22, 2015 6:32 pm

He's not talking in absolutes just an indicator of success.
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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby Telperion » Sun Feb 22, 2015 6:47 pm

For perspective, last year Aaron Donald ran the 40 only 7 hundredths of a second slower than Abdullah and was 80lbs heavier.

There's no way to spin his 40 time in a good light, and if he tries to put on any weight to add power, he's going to get even slower. It would have to be a perfect situation (maybe Dallas) to work.
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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby Billy McFred » Sun Feb 22, 2015 6:49 pm

Listed some of the "proven" backs (2+ years) with their Adjusted 40 time percentile, followed by their agility percentile.

10 out of 13 had an adjusted 40 time percentile of 50th or higher
6 out of 13 (7 if you count CJ2K) had an agility score of 50th percentile or higher

2 of 13 had a 40 time of 25th percentile or less
5 of 13 had an agility score of 25th percentile or less


------------40 time -- Agility
Foster ----- 16th - 12th
A. Morris -- 25th, 62nd
McCoy ----- 44th, 84th
Lacy ------- 62nd - 6th
Bell -------- 65th, 85th
S. Jackson - 73rd, 70th
Charles ---- 84th, 81st
Lynch ------ 87th, 10th
Forte ------ 88th, 75th
MJD -------- 91st, 22nd
Murray ----- 93rd, 29th
Peterson -- 95th, 22nd
CJ2K ------- 97th, ???

Average ---- 71st, 47th
Last edited by Billy McFred on Sun Feb 22, 2015 7:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2015 Combine Observations

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Feb 22, 2015 6:57 pm

Telperion wrote:For perspective, last year Aaron Donald ran the 40 only 7 hundredths of a second slower than Abdullah and was 80lbs heavier.

There's no way to spin his 40 time in a good light, and if he tries to put on any weight to add power, he's going to get even slower. It would have to be a perfect situation (maybe Dallas) to work.
Abdullah plays fast, but doesn't have elite straight line speed. His 40 time confirms that. But we already knew that going in. It's lifted by the fact that he has really good change of direction speed and burst/explosion.
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Sun Feb 22, 2015 7:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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