Community Value vs League Value

[heyfeefellskee]

At what point do you break from the dynasty community's (read: the common opinion of the DLF forum users) and value your players based on your particular league?

Example: I recently posted about trading Cobb and Andre Williams for Charles and Brady. The general consensus here was that I should be getting more back--an opinion I agree with.

However, upon inquiring a few other dynasty players that, as far as I know, aren't involved in this particular community--as well as another member within a league--the trade seems heavily in my favor.

Another example is that this particular league has virtually no value or interest in rookie picks.

So my question is, when do I just accept how my league values players and begin ignoring what I know is good "dynasty" value? Anyone have any similar experiences?

[dlf_jules]

So my question is, when do I just accept how my league values players and begin ignoring what I know is good "dynasty" value?

Short answer: never.

If your league mates really don't value rookie picks, you should own them all (the picks, that is). If your league really undervalues youth and WR, you should go "Zero RB" and show them why they're wrong.

That said, I'd be interested to see what you can trade vets/RBs for. You may find that owners value picks much more when they're not yours.

ETA: WRs do lose some value when you can start only three. Maybe you should be dealing Cobb for picks, not a proven RB.

[heyfeefellskee]

It's just frustrating. I know a good number of them hold high value for RB vets, to the point where what I consider a good starting offer (in the above case, my 1.3 and Williams for Charles) and it gets laughed at.

[olemon1169]

Like what was said above: note trends in you league and take advantage of them. In my league I noticed that there was a run of trades overvaluing TEs so I sold mine for a slightly inflated value (I was rebuilding). Recently draft picks have been crazy overvalued and rookie fever is at post NFL draft levels so I've sold all but 3 of the 8 I had for proven players. I have found that these trends only last for a 1-6 months so I take advantage where I can; I suggest you do the same.

[Matticus]

So my question is, when do I just accept how my league values players and begin ignoring what I know is good "dynasty" value?

Short answer: never.

If your league mates really don't value rookie picks, you should own them all (the picks, that is). If your league really undervalues youth and WR, you should go "Zero RB" and show them why they're wrong.

That said, I'd be interested to see what you can trade vets/RBs for. You may find that owners value picks much more when they're not yours.

ETA: WRs do lose some value when you can start only three. Maybe you should be dealing Cobb for picks, not a proven RB.

Could not agree more with Jules. Know thy enemy and exploit the weakness.

[Tsunami]

The point of the ADP is so you don't overpay to get the players that you want. If your league has different values then you have to go with those. But you should know WHY the players are valued the way they are so you can make an informed decision. If you understand that Charles is 28 and injury prone and his contract is up in 2016, and you still want him over Cobb who will likely still be playing 3 years from now, and also you are sure you can't get a better deal for Cobb from another owner, then go for it. People here can't predict the future any better than you can, use the rankings/ADP not as a guide for how to win, but as a guide for how much to pay for who you want.

[Phaded]

I think such a big factor is that everybody has an individual opinion of any given player.

Sure - a consensus rating is a good place to start discussions but it is not the end-all be-all.

Player values differ per league. If you think a player will blow up; make a move on him. If you think a player hit his peak; sell high on him.

Some players - like Justin Hunter, a lot of people see as a buy low. While others get frustrated that they can't buy low on him because his owner is still high on him. Me personally for example, you couldn't give me Justin Hunter.

ADP values on a site like this are way too "what did you do for me last season" for my liking. Just because a community sets the rankings a certain way; it doesn't mean they are the RIGHT rankings.

[heyfeefellskee]

So my question is, when do I just accept how my league values players and begin ignoring what I know is good "dynasty" value?

Short answer: never.

If your league mates really don't value rookie picks, you should own them all (the picks, that is). If your league really undervalues youth and WR, you should go "Zero RB" and show them why they're wrong.

That said, I'd be interested to see what you can trade vets/RBs for. You may find that owners value picks much more when they're not yours.

ETA: WRs do lose some value when you can start only three. Maybe you should be dealing Cobb for picks, not a proven RB.

Just to see what some of them do, I sent joique and riddick for a 1st to an owner or two...

[bruiser]

So my question is, when do I just accept how my league values players and begin ignoring what I know is good "dynasty" value?

Short answer: never.

If your league mates really don't value rookie picks, you should own them all (the picks, that is). If your league really undervalues youth and WR, you should go "Zero RB" and show them why they're wrong.

That said, I'd be interested to see what you can trade vets/RBs for. You may find that owners value picks much more when they're not yours.

ETA: WRs do lose some value when you can start only three. Maybe you should be dealing Cobb for picks, not a proven RB.

Could not agree more with Jules. Know thy enemy and exploit the weakness.

Yep. Listen to these guys. Spot on. Be the contrarian

[TurtleBK]

So my question is, when do I just accept how my league values players and begin ignoring what I know is good "dynasty" value?

Short answer: never.

If your league mates really don't value rookie picks, you should own them all (the picks, that is). If your league really undervalues youth and WR, you should go "Zero RB" and show them why they're wrong.

That said, I'd be interested to see what you can trade vets/RBs for. You may find that owners value picks much more when they're not yours.

ETA: WRs do lose some value when you can start only three. Maybe you should be dealing Cobb for picks, not a proven RB.

Just to see what some of them do, I sent joique and riddick for a 1st to an owner or two...

FWIW I just moved Joique and Riddick to a Bush owner for 1.09, Roy Helu, and Josh Huff

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

At what point do you break from the dynasty community's (read: the common opinion of the DLF forum users) and value your players based on your particular league?

Example: I recently posted about trading Cobb and Andre Williams for Charles and Brady. The general consensus here was that I should be getting more back--an opinion I agree with.

However, upon inquiring a few other dynasty players that, as far as I know, aren't involved in this particular community--as well as another member within a league--the trade seems heavily in my favor.

Another example is that this particular league has virtually no value or interest in rookie picks.

So my question is, when do I just accept how my league values players and begin ignoring what I know is good "dynasty" value? Anyone have any similar experiences?

I think that the consensus view on a player or trade gives you a good barometer as to what kind of value a player should have, but it doesn't mean that you have to follow it to the letter. There are plenty of polls in the advice section that are pretty split. Go with your gut, even if people are telling you that you can get more for a player or that you should overpay for someone you don't like that much. There are plenty of Trent Richardsons and Odell Beckham Jrs out there, and I guarantee that the consensus was incorrect on both at one point in time, possibly even now. If you believe in Trent, go get him. If you think OBJ is a one-year wonder, sell away.

[Telperion]

My league is similar in that RB's come at a premium that I'm not willing to pay. My solution is to consolidate talent at WR through trades to take advantage of the valuation. At RB, I collect a lot of talent and hope one sticks. WW, cheap trades, through acquiring draft picks, etc.

It's a viable strategy for leagues like this.

[Plank]

Have to be really patient with Leagues like this... It is easy to build a team of incredible WR's .. like your WR10 is Donte Moncrief/D Adams .. heh. By the time your League mates catch up and realize you have all the top 10-15 WR's, you'll be sitting on Gold mine, can sell off your WR10 for several firsts, etc..

But it may take a few years for it to come to fruition, be patient, build your Dynasty ...

[heyfeefellskee]

Out of sheer interest, I've been posting trades I've seen on the Team Advice forum on other forums that are primarily "redraft" to see the value difference, marking all posts with the "DYNASTY: " tagline. Even with that tagline, it's quite interesting to see the difference in value.

Major observation: like most of my league, the forum users at said site tend to HEAVILY value RBs...

[MARKinMI]

I don't use ADP or consensus values when i make deals. I use my own rankings. I think I'm better at ranking players than 3/4 of the dynasty players out there. Heck if you've been doing this for a while you probably are too. So why let less experienced owners and fake ADP guide you? We all know that offseason dynasty ADP is heavily based off of mock drafting where theres nothing to lose and nothing to win. When there's no risk people tend to make a lot of reaches. These drafts are so slanted towards youth and 'splash' picks that frankly i dont trust them. I'm also not a fan of consensus values because every league i play in is different. Whether its a 2QB superflex, contract league or just different scoring or league sizes theres too many variations that change player values. There's just too many types of leagues out there for there to be a meaningful consensus value imo. Now if you're a newbie dynasty player who plays in a cookie cutter 12 team PPR league and doesnt trust himself yet to work off his own rankings then sure i can see how it would give you some sort of guidance.

With that said Consensus values and ADP can be helpful in finding bargains. I'll look for guys who's value is quite a bit off from my personal rankings and see if i cant take advantage of that. It also keeps me honest. If i see i'm valuing a player drastically different than others I'll take another look and reevaluate that player. It helps in preventing myself from getting tunnel vision.