Travis Kelce 2015

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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby WhatWouldDitkaDo » Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:48 pm

PitchingATrent wrote:Agreed Steamers, i think TE are very dependent on QB's to get to the elite difference making level. hence the link between Jimmy Gronk JT.
I'd say it might actually be the opposite. Brady/Brees/Peyton's numbers all dropped when their star TEs were hurt. I think good QB play has elevated their production, but they will still be top guys even without them.
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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby QuintorrisLopezJones » Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:39 pm

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote:
PitchingATrent wrote:Agreed Steamers, i think TE are very dependent on QB's to get to the elite difference making level. hence the link between Jimmy Gronk JT.
I'd say it might actually be the opposite. Brady/Brees/Peyton's numbers all dropped when their star TEs were hurt. I think good QB play has elevated their production, but they will still be top guys even without them.
It goes both ways for sure. We are talking very good players after all. But to be a real difference maker as a TE qbs are the key. Plenty of good Tes out there, few true difference makers
10 Team League .5 PPR QB, 3WR, 2RB, TE, 2FLEX, K, DEF
QB: Brees, Big Ben, Watson
WR: Julio Jones, AJ Green, Alshon Jeffery, DeVante Parker,Sammy Watkins, Michael Crabtree, Agholor
RB: Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Fournette, Lynch, Conner
TE: Travis Kelce , Hooper, Doyle
K: Bryant
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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby Phaded » Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:00 pm

WhatWouldDitkaDo wrote:
PitchingATrent wrote:Agreed Steamers, i think TE are very dependent on QB's to get to the elite difference making level. hence the link between Jimmy Gronk JT.
I'd say it might actually be the opposite. Brady/Brees/Peyton's numbers all dropped when their star TEs were hurt. I think good QB play has elevated their production, but they will still be top guys even without them.
I think a lot of that has to do with the TE being such a "security blanket". Most TEs see a lot of short and quick passes.

As any position in the NFL though; of course a higher value of the partnering player will increase value of both. Look at what Demarco Murray did this year behind that offensive line or what Emmanuel Sanders did with Peyton throwing him the ball. Player stats on the field are never solely dependent on that one player and is more about the cohesiveness of the entire unit. Obviously there are tiers of players, but when you combine two good players you're going to get better production than combining a good and a bad.

However; I do fully believe Julius Thomas is (mostly) a product of Peyton Manning.
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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby QuintorrisLopezJones » Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:12 pm

Right but I'm saying TE is the extreme of that. All those guys settling for short and intermediate routes from qbs who need a security blanket aren't real difference makers. There are so many start able guys. But the elite are almost always tied to the qb. Whereas other positions I feel like you have a lot more outliers. No amount of kelce Camerons reeds etc will ever be a gronk. Kelce could be a great TE, maybe a 80/900/8 sort of guy. But that doesn't offer a great advantage over guys you can grab year in and year out.
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WR: Julio Jones, AJ Green, Alshon Jeffery, DeVante Parker,Sammy Watkins, Michael Crabtree, Agholor
RB: Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Fournette, Lynch, Conner
TE: Travis Kelce , Hooper, Doyle
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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby the_future » Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:16 pm

PitchingATrent wrote:Right but I'm saying TE is the extreme of that. All those guys settling for short and intermediate routes from qbs who need a security blanket aren't real difference makers. There are so many start able guys. But the elite are almost always tied to the qb. Whereas other positions I feel like you have a lot more outliers. No amount of kelce Camerons reeds etc will ever be a gronk. Kelce could be a great TE, maybe a 80/900/8 sort of guy. But that doesn't offer a great advantage over guys you can grab year in and year out.
I feel that Kelce has shown more ability than any other TE in the NFL right now excluding Gronk/Jimmy. (Although he is much more of a physical and fluid player than Jimmy is) If he ever gets the blocking down, he should easily be a consistent mid TE 1 for a while with upside of top 3. He has made many jaw dropping plays in the little time he has played in the NFL. He showed the ability to run away from corners and safeties in the pre season on the circa 70 yard TD reception across the middle and has shown the "mini-Gronk" like strength to break tackles of defenders and elusive hip movements like good ole Witten.

I guess my point is, I rank him as my TE 3 (Julius isn't that good, product of Peyton). And I would take a chance on him if he was sitting there in the 6th/7th round of a start up rather than wait until round 10 to grab an Eifert or Rudolph type.

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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby ericanadian » Thu Jan 15, 2015 9:26 pm

PitchingATrent wrote:
ericanadian wrote:I guess you guys weren't really paying attention if you're complaining about usage. He was right around 50% of the snaps until week ten when he jumped to 67%. He then surpassed 80% every game but one (78%) from there on out and had two or three games in the high 90's. What kind of usage rates are you looking for from a guy with limited blocking capabilities in his first real year of professional football?
Not sure why you need to be sarcastic with such a terrible point. Usage seems to me like its related to how theyre used, no? Used meaning targets, where he was 13ths among TE's... right around where Ertz was. So the usage people want probably has a bit to do with that wouldnt you think?
It was in response to those arguing Fasano was stealing snaps. Even if I go by targets, he was 13th while getting roughly 50% of the snaps up until week 10. It's his first actual season. He progressed exactly as one would hope a first year player would progress in terms of time on the field and led the team in receiving yards. I just don't understand why anyone would complain about him. Demanding a full season of 100% snaps is a ridiculous expectation given that he's only played in one season and I can't think of any TE that's actually accomplished this.
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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby QuintorrisLopezJones » Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:43 am

ericanadian wrote:
PitchingATrent wrote:
ericanadian wrote:I guess you guys weren't really paying attention if you're complaining about usage. He was right around 50% of the snaps until week ten when he jumped to 67%. He then surpassed 80% every game but one (78%) from there on out and had two or three games in the high 90's. What kind of usage rates are you looking for from a guy with limited blocking capabilities in his first real year of professional football?
Not sure why you need to be sarcastic with such a terrible point. Usage seems to me like its related to how theyre used, no? Used meaning targets, where he was 13ths among TE's... right around where Ertz was. So the usage people want probably has a bit to do with that wouldnt you think?
It was in response to those arguing Fasano was stealing snaps. Even if I go by targets, he was 13th while getting roughly 50% of the snaps up until week 10. It's his first actual season. He progressed exactly as one would hope a first year player would progress in terms of time on the field and led the team in receiving yards. I just don't understand why anyone would complain about him. Demanding a full season of 100% snaps is a ridiculous expectation given that he's only played in one season and I can't think of any TE that's actually accomplished this.
OK i will agree with that. Andy Reid is just a headache. He just doesnt understand fantasy football.
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WR: Julio Jones, AJ Green, Alshon Jeffery, DeVante Parker,Sammy Watkins, Michael Crabtree, Agholor
RB: Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Fournette, Lynch, Conner
TE: Travis Kelce , Hooper, Doyle
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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby krh|dynasty » Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:53 am

ericanadian wrote:Andy Reid is just a headache. He just doesnt understand fantasy football.
I have to agree with that.
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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby Mefisto » Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:19 am

I think Kelce becomes a perenial top 5 TE even with Reid at the helm (who has never really been good to his TE's). I would just like to comment about TE's being QB dependent. This is false. A TE's numbers are really only dependent on the O-line. If there's a bad O-line, the TE has to stay in and block. A TE's best friend may infact be the bad quarterback as they can't throw it very far down the field with much accuracy (for example, Olsen's best game(s?) of the season came with Anderson at QB). Plus, bad QB's usually result in playing for behind, which allows TE's to soak up those garbage 10 yard dumps in the 4th quarter.
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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby QuintorrisLopezJones » Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:43 am

Mefisto wrote:I think Kelce becomes a perenial top 5 TE even with Reid at the helm (who has never really been good to his TE's). I would just like to comment about TE's being QB dependent. This is false. A TE's numbers are really only dependent on the O-line. If there's a bad O-line, the TE has to stay in and block. A TE's best friend may infact be the bad quarterback as they can't throw it very far down the field with much accuracy (for example, Olsen's best game(s?) of the season came with Anderson at QB). Plus, bad QB's usually result in playing for behind, which allows TE's to soak up those garbage 10 yard dumps in the 4th quarter.
Well for 1, throwing olsen in there while commenting on the line contradicts itself given how horrible theirs were, but thats not my point.
In theord, yes, having a bad qb and being their dump down guy could be a TE's best friend. But this very often caps a TE as a good, but not a difference maker, being in the range of a top 5 or so TE isnt a bit asset, there are simply so many tes who put up similar numbers, but only guys like gronk jimmy and JT (while hes with peyton) are huge consistent positional advantages. Guys like olsen, bennett, walker, kelce, vernon, gates, cameron, etc all have good years to various consistencies, But whats the real difference between them on a year in and out basis? I hope kelce becomes a stud, i realllyyyy do. But if its not gronk or jimmy, and year to year as JT is with peyton, what is the big difference between all of them? That is the point im trying to make. you can be good, and a beneficiary of a bad defence bad qb etc, but to be a great difference making (fantasy) te, the QB/ offence is everything.
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WR: Julio Jones, AJ Green, Alshon Jeffery, DeVante Parker,Sammy Watkins, Michael Crabtree, Agholor
RB: Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Fournette, Lynch, Conner
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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby TommyL31 » Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:08 pm

PitchingATrent wrote:Right but I'm saying TE is the extreme of that. All those guys settling for short and intermediate routes from qbs who need a security blanket aren't real difference makers. There are so many start able guys. But the elite are almost always tied to the qb. Whereas other positions I feel like you have a lot more outliers. No amount of kelce Camerons reeds etc will ever be a gronk. Kelce could be a great TE, maybe a 80/900/8 sort of guy. But that doesn't offer a great advantage over guys you can grab year in and year out.
I agree with this and think the point is well made.

I will say that I'm blown away by the amount of people who seem to be implying that JT isn't in the same realm as Gronk and Graham. So I'll say that I think Gronk is in a category by himself as the things he does to defenders after the catch is out of this world but when I see Jimmy Graham I see a player with maybe a fraction more talent than JT (although I'm not sure I even believe that) who both have elite QBs throwing to them. Main stat difference is:
a) Julius plays with a QB who tends to throw more TDs (advantage Julius)
b) Graham has WAY less competition for targets. He's the first option in New Orleans ahead of Colston, Cooks, and Stills. Julius is behind Demaryius and Sanders. (advantage Jimmy)

I can see someone arguing that Julius would get more targets if he could prove he is better than Sanders as Jimmy has with his receivers but I think it's undeniable that Demaryius is head and shoulders above any WR on New Orleans.

In terms of efficiency,
Graham caught 68% of his targets for 10.45 ypc.
Thomas caught 69% of his targets for 11.37 ypc.

In terms of the eye test, I think people are holding the end of this season against Thomas when he came back and was clearly playing injured. Over the past couple of years I think Thomas is just as good (or very close) to the physical abilities of Graham.

Now all that being said, Graham is absolutely the better fantasy asset both because he's been doing it for longer so he's safer but also because in addition to Graham's situation being better even if JT and Peyton both stay in Denver, Thomas has the situation uncertainty. But if we're talking situation independent I would say Graham, Thomas, and Kelce are all in a similar tier below Gronk. I'd even put Gates in that 2nd tier but who knows how much longer he'll hold up.
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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby QuintorrisLopezJones » Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:58 pm

TommyL31 wrote:
PitchingATrent wrote:Right but I'm saying TE is the extreme of that. All those guys settling for short and intermediate routes from qbs who need a security blanket aren't real difference makers. There are so many start able guys. But the elite are almost always tied to the qb. Whereas other positions I feel like you have a lot more outliers. No amount of kelce Camerons reeds etc will ever be a gronk. Kelce could be a great TE, maybe a 80/900/8 sort of guy. But that doesn't offer a great advantage over guys you can grab year in and year out.
I agree with this and think the point is well made.

I will say that I'm blown away by the amount of people who seem to be implying that JT isn't in the same realm as Gronk and Graham. So I'll say that I think Gronk is in a category by himself as the things he does to defenders after the catch is out of this world but when I see Jimmy Graham I see a player with maybe a fraction more talent than JT (although I'm not sure I even believe that) who both have elite QBs throwing to them. Main stat difference is:
a) Julius plays with a QB who tends to throw more TDs (advantage Julius)
b) Graham has WAY less competition for targets. He's the first option in New Orleans ahead of Colston, Cooks, and Stills. Julius is behind Demaryius and Sanders. (advantage Jimmy)

I can see someone arguing that Julius would get more targets if he could prove he is better than Sanders as Jimmy has with his receivers but I think it's undeniable that Demaryius is head and shoulders above any WR on New Orleans.

In terms of efficiency,
Graham caught 68% of his targets for 10.45 ypc.
Thomas caught 69% of his targets for 11.37 ypc.

In terms of the eye test, I think people are holding the end of this season against Thomas when he came back and was clearly playing injured. Over the past couple of years I think Thomas is just as good (or very close) to the physical abilities of Graham.

Now all that being said, Graham is absolutely the better fantasy asset both because he's been doing it for longer so he's safer but also because in addition to Graham's situation being better even if JT and Peyton both stay in Denver, Thomas has the situation uncertainty. But if we're talking situation independent I would say Graham, Thomas, and Kelce are all in a similar tier below Gronk. I'd even put Gates in that 2nd tier but who knows how much longer he'll hold up.
The big difference to me is 3 things:
1. JT hasnt dominated as much as it feels like for a full season. Lot of Tds but not the yards (smaller sample though)
2. He's a FA on a team needing to pay other players (DT) as well as increasing salaries for Harris and Miller this year. I think hes probably gone unless his injury lowered his price a lot
3. I really think peytons 50/50 for next year and way less for any longer
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RB: Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Fournette, Lynch, Conner
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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby TommyL31 » Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:14 pm

PitchingATrent wrote:
TommyL31 wrote:
PitchingATrent wrote:Right but I'm saying TE is the extreme of that. All those guys settling for short and intermediate routes from qbs who need a security blanket aren't real difference makers. There are so many start able guys. But the elite are almost always tied to the qb. Whereas other positions I feel like you have a lot more outliers. No amount of kelce Camerons reeds etc will ever be a gronk. Kelce could be a great TE, maybe a 80/900/8 sort of guy. But that doesn't offer a great advantage over guys you can grab year in and year out.
I agree with this and think the point is well made.

I will say that I'm blown away by the amount of people who seem to be implying that JT isn't in the same realm as Gronk and Graham. So I'll say that I think Gronk is in a category by himself as the things he does to defenders after the catch is out of this world but when I see Jimmy Graham I see a player with maybe a fraction more talent than JT (although I'm not sure I even believe that) who both have elite QBs throwing to them. Main stat difference is:
a) Julius plays with a QB who tends to throw more TDs (advantage Julius)
b) Graham has WAY less competition for targets. He's the first option in New Orleans ahead of Colston, Cooks, and Stills. Julius is behind Demaryius and Sanders. (advantage Jimmy)

I can see someone arguing that Julius would get more targets if he could prove he is better than Sanders as Jimmy has with his receivers but I think it's undeniable that Demaryius is head and shoulders above any WR on New Orleans.

In terms of efficiency,
Graham caught 68% of his targets for 10.45 ypc.
Thomas caught 69% of his targets for 11.37 ypc.

In terms of the eye test, I think people are holding the end of this season against Thomas when he came back and was clearly playing injured. Over the past couple of years I think Thomas is just as good (or very close) to the physical abilities of Graham.

Now all that being said, Graham is absolutely the better fantasy asset both because he's been doing it for longer so he's safer but also because in addition to Graham's situation being better even if JT and Peyton both stay in Denver, Thomas has the situation uncertainty. But if we're talking situation independent I would say Graham, Thomas, and Kelce are all in a similar tier below Gronk. I'd even put Gates in that 2nd tier but who knows how much longer he'll hold up.
The big difference to me is 3 things:
1. JT hasnt dominated as much as it feels like for a full season. Lot of Tds but not the yards (smaller sample though)
2. He's a FA on a team needing to pay other players (DT) as well as increasing salaries for Harris and Miller this year. I think hes probably gone unless his injury lowered his price a lot
3. I really think peytons 50/50 for next year and way less for any longer
I completely agree that he hasn't put up the yards but my point above was that's largely a product of Julius having way better competition for targets than Jimmy Graham. I agree that Graham should be valued higher because he's in a great (and relatively stable) situation and JT isn't. My problem is people claiming there's a huge talent gap between the two (or Graham and Kelce for that matter). I just don't think it's the case at all. And while Thomas probably won't have the same TD upside next year my guess is he's going to get paid by a team that will make him much more central to the offense. Still not as good as being central to an offense headed by Drew Brees most likely.

And in terms of the talent gap, I'm struggling to understand if Thomas is such a product of Peyton why were VIrgil Green and Jacob Tamme useless when Thomas was out?
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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby maynard046 » Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:38 pm

The topic has started to change a bit, but going back to the Alex Smith comments; I think he's an ok QB, but he doesn't throw the deep seam, and remember the 70 yard preseason TD that got everyone excited last year? That pass was thrown by Aaron Murray, and not a pass that Smith will typically attempt. I love Kelce and would put him at TE4, but I do think his upside is limited until either Smith or Reid change.
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Re: Travis Kelce 2015

Postby FantasyFreak » Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:49 am

maynard046 wrote:The topic has started to change a bit, but going back to the Alex Smith comments; I think he's an ok QB, but he doesn't throw the deep seam, and remember the 70 yard preseason TD that got everyone excited last year? That pass was thrown by Aaron Murray, and not a pass that Smith will typically attempt. I love Kelce and would put him at TE4, but I do think his upside is limited until either Smith or Reid change.
Yeah, I need to see more from Kelce before I anoint him a top TE. He is good, but nowhere near Gronk, orr Graham, nor will he ever be IMO. Solid top ten, though, and right now, probably top 5.
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