Dynasty League Football Forum

2015 looks like a hell of a RB class. Gurley is obvious a stud, but guys like Gordon, Davis, Yeldon, Abdullah, Johnson, etc. all have the chance to either take over jobs or blow up a situation and turn it into a timeshare. Obviously there's going to be fallout, so who are you most worried about in that regard?

For one, there's a reason I haven't rostered Latavius Murrray anywhere, despite the fact that he has the size-speed ratio I love. I can't see Oakland going into next season without adding a RB in the draft. Jacksonville is another one- they strike me as a Gurley candidate early in the first. Baltimore strikes me as a team that's going to add a RB as well.

I could also see SD and Buffalo further muddying their picture, Detroit taking more of a between the tackles back, NYJ taking a back to split carries with Ivory, and the Giants finding a complement to Jennings.

The biggest dark horse, for me, is Washington. I could absolutely see them spending a high pick on a more complete back than Morris. If there's any highly regarded back that I'd be worried about come draft time, it's probably Alf.

Who else are you guys worried about?

The problem with RB is that talent does not always outweigh situation.

Maybe Gurley goes to Oakland and they stack the box.
Yeldon goes to Minnesota and gets outplayed by Mkinnon.
Gordon goes to the Giants and tears an ACL.
Duke Johnson goes to SD and Branden Oliver proves to be the real deal.
Abdullah goes to Miami and Lamar Miller becomes a 3 down back.
Jay Ajayi goes to New England and gets Bill Belichecked

OR

Maybe Gurley goes to Oakland and helps them turn it around.
Yeldon goes to Minnesota and breaks the Alabama RB trend.
Gordon goes to the Giants and shows how much pass protections matters.
Duke Johnson goes to SD and Branden Oliver proves to not be the real deal.
Abdullah goes to Miami and Lamar Miller becomes a compliment back.
Jay Ajayi goes to New England and pass protects so well that Bill Belichick personally sets him up with a supermodel of his own. Tom Brady goes on to win three Superbowls straight.

____

All I am saying is that there's a ton of talent. But it's so tough to know with RBs. Guys come out of nowhere all the time.

Personally? I am stocking up on picks wherever I can. Some of those dudes will pan out in a big way.

Maybe I should make this more clear- which current NFL RBs are you worried about with regard to the 2015 draft?

probably guys like Forsett, Oliver/Mathews, etc.

Lynch, Turbin, Michael -- Only because I think Mike Davis will fall to Seattle and he's a stud that fits the mold they want at RB. Far-fetched I suppose considering the depth they have, but I wouldn't be totally surprised if Lynch is gone next year and they draft Davis as his *real* replacement. Michael has significant durability concerns, and Davis is the perfect player to plug in to Seattle's run offense.

McFadden/MJD/L.Murray -- I am an owner of his as well, and for the same reason I am concerned that I should sell him as soon as he has any showing whatsoever. It seems incredibly unlikely to me that they don't add a back, and I like many of the backs they could add in talent over Murray.

Anyone on Jags -- Obviously, the future is not on the team. At best, someone like D-Rob is a change of pace guy. The lack of a consistent running game is a big deal for the Jags and it makes it easier for defenses to pin their ears back and rush after Blake Bortles. The team will make this a priority.

McKinnon -- Whether he's the future or not, they will certainly add a talented back in the draft. Depends on whether you like McKinnon more than who they add.

Ellington -- I love Ellington, but the wise thing for the Cardinals to do is draft a stud back to take on the early-down work, and let Ellington play on passing downs. He is a real candidate to cede many of his carries next year to a rookie back. I traded out of him in part for this concern.

You might be right about Ellington, but i've watched him play several times and he's always looked great to me. It would be like somebody drafting a RB and him replacing Jamaal Charles. I don't really see the sense in it, but it wouldn't be the first time it's happened.

The Cards are so old on D and with so many holes I would be surprised if they go RB high at all.

People who will be in danger;

- Whomever the lead back is in Oakland. **
- Whomever the lead back is in Buffalo.
- Whomever the lead back is in New England.
- Whomever the lead back is in Baltimore.
- Whomever the lead back is in Jacksonville. **
- Whomever the lead back is in Detroit.
- Whomever the lead back is in Carolina.

**Disclaimer; these teams are so bad all around I would be shocked to see a high pick go to a RB.

Disclaimer number two; these are the teams I deem "most likely" to be starting a rookie RB next year. Of course it could realistically happen to just about any team.

Phaded- I agree with you re: Oakland, but, you know, it's Oakland. I wouldn't be shocked at all if they took Gurley. Oakland is in the Tyson Zone. There's nobody they could take that would shock me.

I disagree with you regarding Jacksonville. Their defense has been solid- Football Outsiders actually has them above average on the year. On the offensive side of the ball, if you look at the high priority positions- QB, WR, LT- they're kind of set there with a bunch of young guys they've spent high draft picks on. Sure, the smarter thing to do would be to trade that pick to a team that really wanted Gurley (or Mariota) and then rebuild the whole right side of the line, but it wouldn't be outrageous to see them just go ahead and take Gurley.

As for Carolina, Jesus, another running back? You'd think they'd learn.

You don't have to draft and RB high to have them win the job. SO Gurley and Gordon go higher that doesn't mean that 3rd 4th or 5th round RBs can't win the job. Since its supposed to be RB deep anyway.

Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams - The organization still had some hope for David Wilson during the last draft, and I think an aging Eli needs a strong RB to lean on.

Matt Forte - Age and contract concerns make him a candidate to lose his job in the next twelve months. Whether that's to a 2015 back or Ka'deem Carey I feel has a lot to do with whether or not Trestman gets a third year with the team. I'd expect to see a new hire bring in a back to fit his system.

Forsett and Gang- Flacco's pass attempts have been way up this year. Ravens front office has traditionally spent capital to ensure good running backs and don't think any of them are a long term solution.

Carolina RB- After this year Jonathan Stewart's massive contract can be realistically cut. Williams is ancient, seems wide open for someone to take it. Looking like a potential Gurley landing spot if they limp into the playoffs.

Andre Ellington- I think he's being over used in Arizona's offense and the efficiency just isn't there. They are a candidate to draft a bruiser to play between the 20s, and it might not be all that bad of a thing for his value in the long term, just expect his price to take a shock.

Shane Vereen - It's a contract year and the Patriots are cheap. Not a fan of James White, I think Belicheck can't help himself but to have at some of the RB value in this deep class. Abdullah?

Gurley has a good chance of staying right here in Georgia and go to the Falcons.

PhadedCN wrote:People who will be in danger;

- Whomever the lead back is in Oakland. **
- Whomever the lead back is in Buffalo.
- Whomever the lead back is in New England.
- Whomever the lead back is in Baltimore.
- Whomever the lead back is in Jacksonville. **
- Whomever the lead back is in Detroit.
- Whomever the lead back is in Carolina.

Add NO, MIA, NYG, IND, SD, MIN, ATL to that list.

I have Ellington and I'm seriously consider moving him. I just don't trust his usage and to be honest I'm not sure he's playing all that well. He's made some big plays but his running hasn't been exceptional. I had the thought this week and Chris Harris on ESPN said the same thing. Makes me wonder.

??Droppedballs?? wrote:

PhadedCN wrote:People who will be in danger;

- Whomever the lead back is in Oakland. **
- Whomever the lead back is in Buffalo.
- Whomever the lead back is in New England.
- Whomever the lead back is in Baltimore.
- Whomever the lead back is in Jacksonville. **
- Whomever the lead back is in Detroit.
- Whomever the lead back is in Carolina.

Add NO, MIA, NYG, IND, SD, MIN, ATL to that list.

Good summary here. I think Miller and McKinnon are going into 2015 with a key NFL role for their respective teams, but their dynasty value could/would definitely lose steam if either team drafts a Jeremy Hill like back as a long term compliment ---- even if doing so actually helps them (Miller/McKinnon) in the long run.