Valuing QBs long-term

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Valuing QBs long-term

Postby cdubbaya » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:07 am

I'm curious how you guys place value on quarterbacks, specifically top-tier QBs regardless of age. Can anyone give me their top 5-10 QB rankings for this year and future?

I'm also wondering what it would take to trade for guys like Wilson, Kaepernick, Newton, etc.

Do you guys place QB value ahead of RB but behind WR or TE?

Is the value of Kaepernick closer to Dez Bryant or someone like Brandon Marshall or maybe Jeremy Maclin?

I'm not looking to move on from Stafford, but I'm curious to know what other QB owners might be looking for.
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term

Postby Phaded » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:14 am

I don't think you can make a definitive list of how they value against other players. Especially because every league is different in regards to size of league, starting requirements and so forth. Every owner also values every player differently.

My personal QB rankings though as it stands right now (although I'm sure new QBs will emerge);

This year only;
1) Peyton Manning
2) Aaron Rodgers
3) Andrew Luck
4) Russell Wilson
5) Philip Rivers

The next 5 years;

1) Aaron Rodgers
2) Andrew Luck
3) Russell Wilson
4) Cam Newton
5) Matthew Stafford

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Re: Valuing QBs long-term

Postby KCLep20 » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:17 am

1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Stafford
5. Cam

There are lot's of QB's and in a 12 team league only 12 start, so that leaves another 5-6 startable QB's on the shelf each week. I value them below elite WR's but they are my next highest position because of their longevity. I've always had elite QB's (Peyton/Brees/Stafford) and would highly recommend it. It's nice knowing each and every week you have an advantage at that one position.

For my rankings, it's all about age. Sure Peyton/Brees will put up monster numbers, but Peyton has a year or 2 max and Brees is at 3-4 so it's just a numbers game. Rodgers is the oldest and will be 31, but i think he can also play until he's 38-40 which gives him a long window still.
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term

Postby hailtoyourvictor » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:25 am

Top 10 fantasy QBs now:
1. Manning
2. Rodgers
3. Luck
4. Brees
5. Wilson
6. Rivers
7. Romo
8. Brady
9. Romo
10. Cutler

Top 10 fantasy QBs in 5 years (not counting rookies that will play their way onto the list:
1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Bortles
5. Newton
6. Kaepernick
7. RGIII
8. Stafford
9. Foles
10. Tannehill


I'd say the top 3 are "Elite", the next 3 are "possibly elite" and the bottom 4 are "good but not great".

Future value wise, I'd say, for me:
Elite WR (Thomas, Bryant, Green tier)
Elite RB (Bernard, McCoy, Charles tier)
Elite QB (Luck, Rodgers, Wilson)
Elite TE (Graham, Gronk)
2nd tier WR (Floyd, Jeffrey, Gordon tier)
Possibly Elite QB (Kaepernick, Newton, Bortles)
2nd tier RB (Hill, Hyde, Miller tier)

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Re: Valuing QBs long-term

Postby cdubbaya » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:29 am

hailtoyourvictor wrote: Top 10 fantasy QBs in 5 years (not counting rookies that will play their way onto the list:
1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Bortles
5. Newton
6. Kaepernick
7. RGIII
8. Stafford
9. Foles
10. Tannehill
Interesting to see Bortles a top 5 QB in 5 years over guys like Newton and Stafford. Any logic there, or just a hunch he's going to break out soon?

If you were a Bortles owner, what would it take to move him today?
7th year Dynasty Team. 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 2FLEX 1D 1K
QB - Mahomes, Watson, Stafford
RB - Hunt, Fournette, Drake, Gio B
WR - Hopkins, K Allen, Boyd, K Cole, Enunwa, Funchess, A Robinson, Sutton
TE - Burton, Herndon
D/ST - Broncos, Jets
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term

Postby dlf_jules » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:31 am

PhadedCN wrote:I don't think you can make a definitive list of how they value against other players. Especially because every league is different in regards to size of league, starting requirements and so forth.
This. Comparing QBs to other positions of course depends on how many QBs you can start, how many RB/WR/TEs you have to start, and scoring for each.

But even among QBs, league size and superflex make a difference. In a 10-team, 1 QB league, I probably have Peyton as my dynasty QB3. But in a 12-team superflex, he may fall into the QB8-QB12 range.
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term

Postby Swampdonkey17 » Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:17 am

hailtoyourvictor wrote:Top 10 fantasy QBs now:
1. Manning
2. Rodgers
3. Luck
4. Brees
5. Wilson
6. Rivers
7. Romo
8. Brady
9. Romo
10. Cutler

Top 10 fantasy QBs in 5 years (not counting rookies that will play their way onto the list:
1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Bortles
5. Newton
6. Kaepernick
7. RGIII
8. Stafford
9. Foles
10. Tannehill


I'd say the top 3 are "Elite", the next 3 are "possibly elite" and the bottom 4 are "good but not great".

Future value wise, I'd say, for me:
Elite WR (Thomas, Bryant, Green tier)
Elite RB (Bernard, McCoy, Charles tier)
Elite QB (Luck, Rodgers, Wilson)
Elite TE (Graham, Gronk)
2nd tier WR (Floyd, Jeffrey, Gordon tier)
Possibly Elite QB (Kaepernick, Newton, Bortles)
2nd tier RB (Hill, Hyde, Miller tier)

Am I alone in thinking Leveon Bell is in the elite RB dynasty category?
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term

Postby evorzan » Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:21 am

Swampdonkey17 wrote:
hailtoyourvictor wrote:Top 10 fantasy QBs now:
1. Manning
2. Rodgers
3. Luck
4. Brees
5. Wilson
6. Rivers
7. Romo
8. Brady
9. Romo
10. Cutler

Top 10 fantasy QBs in 5 years (not counting rookies that will play their way onto the list:
1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Bortles
5. Newton
6. Kaepernick
7. RGIII
8. Stafford
9. Foles
10. Tannehill


I'd say the top 3 are "Elite", the next 3 are "possibly elite" and the bottom 4 are "good but not great".

Future value wise, I'd say, for me:
Elite WR (Thomas, Bryant, Green tier)
Elite RB (Bernard, McCoy, Charles tier)
Elite QB (Luck, Rodgers, Wilson)
Elite TE (Graham, Gronk)
2nd tier WR (Floyd, Jeffrey, Gordon tier)
Possibly Elite QB (Kaepernick, Newton, Bortles)
2nd tier RB (Hill, Hyde, Miller tier)

Am I alone in thinking Leveon Bell is in the elite RB dynasty category?
You're not. I have it McCoy, Bell, Charles at the moment with Bernard a hair behind.
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term

Postby cdubbaya » Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:39 am

Jules wrote:
PhadedCN wrote:I don't think you can make a definitive list of how they value against other players. Especially because every league is different in regards to size of league, starting requirements and so forth.
This. Comparing QBs to other positions of course depends on how many QBs you can start, how many RB/WR/TEs you have to start, and scoring for each.

But even among QBs, league size and superflex make a difference. In a 10-team, 1 QB league, I probably have Peyton as my dynasty QB3. But in a 12-team superflex, he may fall into the QB8-QB12 range.
Point taken. I think I'm just curious about trade values and how they compare in your league, not necessarily in general. I understand value differs greatly based on league configuration, but that can be said about any position and we talk about other positions value often on this site.

I just see QB conversation is lacking on this site, probably because they don't get moved often and their value is fairly consistent year over year. However I'm faced with a decision soon on what to do with my QB and I want to have a conversation about how to attain a long term QB.
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QB - Mahomes, Watson, Stafford
RB - Hunt, Fournette, Drake, Gio B
WR - Hopkins, K Allen, Boyd, K Cole, Enunwa, Funchess, A Robinson, Sutton
TE - Burton, Herndon
D/ST - Broncos, Jets
K - Maher, Myers

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Re: Valuing QBs long-term

Postby hailtoyourvictor » Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:41 am

cdubbaya wrote:
hailtoyourvictor wrote: Top 10 fantasy QBs in 5 years (not counting rookies that will play their way onto the list:
1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Bortles
5. Newton
6. Kaepernick
7. RGIII
8. Stafford
9. Foles
10. Tannehill
Interesting to see Bortles a top 5 QB in 5 years over guys like Newton and Stafford. Any logic there, or just a hunch he's going to break out soon?

If you were a Bortles owner, what would it take to move him today?
Full disclosure is that I'm a Jaguars fan, though I do like the Lions too. Bortles has shown that he has the qualities you look for in a franchise QB. As a passer, it's hard not to compare him to Roethlisberger. Bortles offers more than Big Ben does, from a fantasy perspective, because he also has abilities to make plays with his feet. In 4.5 games, Bortles has 143 yards rushing. I think Bortles will be a regular 400 yard / 4-5 rushing TD QB, where as Roethlisberger has only eclipsed 100 yards 4 times.

The situation in Jacksonville is bad now, but the organization is committed to Bortles. Three of BB5 (what we call him)'s top WRs are rookies (Hurns, Robinson, and Lee). Bortles and his WRs should hit their primes in stride.

I am just not a huge Newton fan. Stafford is way too inconsistant and his value drops when he loses the best WR of our era.

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Re: Valuing QBs long-term

Postby hailtoyourvictor » Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:42 am

Swampdonkey17 wrote:
hailtoyourvictor wrote:Top 10 fantasy QBs now:
1. Manning
2. Rodgers
3. Luck
4. Brees
5. Wilson
6. Rivers
7. Romo
8. Brady
9. Romo
10. Cutler

Top 10 fantasy QBs in 5 years (not counting rookies that will play their way onto the list:
1. Luck
2. Rodgers
3. Wilson
4. Bortles
5. Newton
6. Kaepernick
7. RGIII
8. Stafford
9. Foles
10. Tannehill


I'd say the top 3 are "Elite", the next 3 are "possibly elite" and the bottom 4 are "good but not great".

Future value wise, I'd say, for me:
Elite WR (Thomas, Bryant, Green tier)
Elite RB (Bernard, McCoy, Charles tier)
Elite QB (Luck, Rodgers, Wilson)
Elite TE (Graham, Gronk)
2nd tier WR (Floyd, Jeffrey, Gordon tier)
Possibly Elite QB (Kaepernick, Newton, Bortles)
2nd tier RB (Hill, Hyde, Miller tier)

Am I alone in thinking Leveon Bell is in the elite RB dynasty category?
Nope. I just kept it to 2-3 position players to give the jist. It's a QB ranking thread, so I didn't feel like breaking every position into complete tiers.

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Re: Valuing QBs long-term

Postby snitchinsider » Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:50 am

cdubbaya wrote: Interesting to see Bortles a top 5 QB in 5 years over guys like Newton and Stafford. Any logic there, or just a hunch he's going to break out soon?

If you were a Bortles owner, what would it take to move him today?
I'll speak from my perspective here seeing as how I see things shaping up similarly from Bortles. Basically, from watching the games as well as the preseason, Bortles looks like a legit star quarterback in the making. He does things well beyond his years, and while he has thrown quite a few interceptions already, you could pretty much expect that considering how aggressive he is down the field. As soon as the receivers and o-line around him improve (which both groups are playing quite a lot of rookies), Bortles is going to blow up. He is also very, very good on his feet while keeping his eyes down field.

The best way to describe Bortles I've heard so far is to call him a "Mini Luck," and that's what he is. The Roethlisberger comparisons make a lot of sense in some ways, but his point upside seems far, far superior than Ben. On the downside, I think there is a chance he becomes the Brett Favre of the new generation, and throws way too many picks by being too aggressive to be an elite QB consistently, but that's my only real concern, and I think that will likely wash away with receivers capable of going up and getting the ball for him.

Considering how difficult it is to find QBs and not bust on them, it would take quite a lot to get Bortles away if I was an owner, especially in a 2 QB league or a deeper league where the value of QBs rises. I wouldn't trade him for two blind 1st round picks in a 12-team 2 QB. And depending on if my roster was rebuilding or trying to win immediately, I likely would not trade him for someone like Stafford, who is also young but has proven time and time again he has problems scoring elite QB numbers when Calvin isn't healthy. Bortles also uses his legs enough, and well enough that it's a significant contribution to his bottom line.
Last edited by snitchinsider on Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term

Postby evorzan » Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:52 am

From a ranking style standpoint, I have trouble with giving a straight list of QBs. Peyton is worth nothing to me unless I'm competing, even in a 1 year window. I feel like rankings should be given based on team status as well. IE QB rankings for a contending team vs. QB rankings for a rebuilding team. I don't have time to flesh this out at the moment or I would.
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Re: Valuing QBs long-term

Postby cdubbaya » Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:19 am

snitchinsider wrote:
cdubbaya wrote: Interesting to see Bortles a top 5 QB in 5 years over guys like Newton and Stafford. Any logic there, or just a hunch he's going to break out soon?

If you were a Bortles owner, what would it take to move him today?
I'll speak from my perspective here seeing as how I see things shaping up similarly from Bortles. Basically, from watching the games as well as the preseason, Bortles looks like a legit star quarterback in the making. He does things well beyond his years, and while he has thrown quite a few interceptions already, you could pretty much expect that considering how aggressive he is down the field. As soon as the receivers and o-line around him improve (which both groups are playing quite a lot of rookies), Bortles is going to blow up. He is also very, very good on his feet while keeping his eyes down field.

The best way to describe Bortles I've heard so far is to call him a "Mini Luck," and that's what he is. The Roethlisberger comparisons make a lot of sense in some ways, but his point upside seems far, far superior than Ben. On the downside, I think there is a chance he becomes the Brett Favre of the new generation, and throws way too many picks by being too aggressive to be an elite QB consistently, but that's my only real concern, and I think that will likely wash away with receivers capable of going up and getting the ball for him.

Considering how difficult it is to find QBs and not bust on them, it would take quite a lot to get Bortles away if I was an owner, especially in a 2 QB league or a deeper league where the value of QBs rises. I wouldn't trade him for two blind 1st round picks in a 12-team 2 QB. And depending on if my roster was rebuilding or trying to win immediately, I likely would not trade him for someone like Stafford, who is also young but has proven time and time again he has problems scoring elite QB numbers when Calvin isn't healthy. Bortles also uses his legs enough, and well enough that it's a significant contribution to his bottom line.
I'm not sure I agree or disagree, but it would be an impressive turn of events for Jacksonville to have a top 5 QB. I'm used to years of not trusting anyone in a Jags uniform.
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QB - Mahomes, Watson, Stafford
RB - Hunt, Fournette, Drake, Gio B
WR - Hopkins, K Allen, Boyd, K Cole, Enunwa, Funchess, A Robinson, Sutton
TE - Burton, Herndon
D/ST - Broncos, Jets
K - Maher, Myers

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Re: Valuing QBs long-term

Postby escalator_dropdown » Wed Oct 22, 2014 1:05 pm

cdubbaya wrote: Point taken. I think I'm just curious about trade values and how they compare in your league, not necessarily in general. I understand value differs greatly based on league configuration, but that can be said about any position and we talk about other positions value often on this site.

I just see QB conversation is lacking on this site, probably because they don't get moved often and their value is fairly consistent year over year. However I'm faced with a decision soon on what to do with my QB and I want to have a conversation about how to attain a long term QB.
I agree that QB discussion can sometimes be lacking, but I have to disagree with the bolded. I think QB value relative to other positions and picks faces much, much more fluctuation dependent on league size / roster size / starting requirements / scoring setup than any other position. PPR, 3 WR + Flex, 1.5 PPR for TE etc. all require adjustments for RB/WR/TE value, sure, but they're nothing compared to the difference between say a 10 team 1 QB league vs. a 12 team superflex or 2 QB league.
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WRs: Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Jamison Crowder, Deebo Samuel*, Parris Campbell*, Miles Boykin*, Denzel Mims*
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