Tavon Austin bust,buy, or hold?

[knuckles50]

I have been one of the biggest Austin supporters and I am strarting to question if I was wrong. What are you guys thinking about him?

[Cameron Giles]

How could he be a bust? He hasn't had respectable quarterback play with Bradford out and the rams haven't figured out how to use him yet. It takes some time. The injuries could be a little concerning though, but he still produced similar numbers as Patterson last year with less opportunity.

If you own him, he's a hold. If you don't, it's a great chance to buy low on a nice talent from impatient owners. Austin could be an explosive weapon in the right place.

[tstafford]

Can't argue that his QB situation has been bad and likely will continue to be bad for several more years. That hurts his value even if it's a reasonable explanation for his lack of production.

He got a decent amount of snaps and targets in 2013. The production wasn't there. I guess the above comparison to Patterson is because they were drafted the same year - if you look at the numbers they actually got similar chances and produced similar results. I'd much rather have Patterson because of his frame. Not of fan of the small guys - although there's no arguing with what NOS has gotten out of Cooks.

I have my doubts about Austin (and did coming in) he was highly drafted in most leagues and if I could sell for a 2015 first of any sort I think I would.

[knuckles50]

I saw what the Rams were doing with Amendola and thought Austin would be similar. He could get 100+ targets and with 4.3 speed and the best quickness in the league, he could be a fantasy beast. I am no longer confident in that even though I am highly invested.

[Titus Young's Lawyer]

Quick>Tavon

[failblazer]

I never thought Tavon would amount to much and I shook my head as I watched fans of different teams clamouring for their team to trade up to draft him. Show me a player his size and his build who has been successful enough in the league to warrant the 8th pick. Wes Welker is considered a very small receiver and even he's got 10 lbs on Austin. The idea that he was going to catch 100 balls a season and be a PPR monster was always perplexing to me. I know it was a weak rookie class overall but for him to be the 1.01 and people arguing for him over Gio Bernard was laughable to me. He's a bust and he was always destined to be one. If he'd be drafted in a similar position to De'Anthony Thomas (4th round, 3rd/4th in fantasy) then that would have been one thing but he was just massively overdrafted in real life and in fantasy terms. Not saying he can't make the occassional splash play but you wouldn't draft Devin Hester in the the 2nd round of a startup would you?

[Jason3123]

I'm not a fan of wide receivers who are slightly bigger than a child but you have to hold him cause his value is insanely low and he can only go up. Hopefully he has a few good games towards the end of the year, and I'd sell him next year if he gets off to a good start. Maybe someone will buy into him.

[RGKID144]

I saw what the Rams were doing with Amendola and thought Austin would be similar. He could get 100+ targets and with 4.3 speed and the best quickness in the league, he could be a fantasy beast. I am no longer confident in that even though I am highly invested.

These were my thoughts EXACTLY!

Firstly, I was invested in Bradford, as I took him in the 4th round of my 2QB startup right after his rookie season. I had an incredible belief in Bradford's ability and hope of becoming a mainstay NFL QB. With that being said, like Knuckles mentioned, Amendola could have been a fantasy MONSTER had he or Bradford EVER stayed healthy together. I was of the belief that Tavon would slot right into that Amendola role and break the mold for rookie WR's, similar to Cooks in NO. I had done extensive research and wrote a pretty long piece for a thread a WAYS back about the value of being Bradford's slot/go to WR. IMHO there was just so much to be excited for. Quite frankly, I couldn't have been happier with his volume when ACTUALLY playing with Bradford, which is where his monster value lied for me. FWIW(and most people really don't bother to look past the numbers), but in Tavon's first 5 games as a rookie in the NFL, and the only games he EVER played with Bradford, his target distribution were as follows:

Week 1: 7
Week 2: 12
Week 3: 7
Week 4: 8
Week 5: 6

Those are some MASSIVE targets for a WR in their first 5 games EVER in the NFL. Not only that, but he had 6 receptions in each of his first 3 games in the NFL, where he only had 7 targets in 2 of those games(so he caught 6 of 7 targets). IMO, that means he was getting open AND catching the balls that were being thrown his way. Even in week 3, when he had 6 receptions among 12 targets, he was still getting a ton of volume in targets because, well he was getting open. That's usually the reason WR's are thrown to lol.

When Bradford got injured in week 5, Tavon's targets took a monstrous hit the rest of the season, and led to very pedestrian numbers. He only saw 7 targets once more the rest of the season.


When you really boil all of this down, I think people are somewhat devaluing him way too little. There is CLEARLY a possibility of bust status, but there is also a very large amount of upside if the stars align properly. Next year, the Rams could very well be spending a high pick on a signal caller, and you can almost guarantee they won't be using a high pick on a WR because of the heavy volume of picks they have used in recent years. It very well may seem that he is not an NFL caliber WR because of his size, but I think thats a poor way of thinking. Obviously, size is a MAJOR asset for NFL WR's, and I almost ALWAYS won't draft guys who don't fit the mold for prototypical NFL WRs, but I think writing him off completely because of this is not fair to him. He was the 9th overall player selected in a somewhat deep class, and showed some flashes as a rookie that he can actually be an awesome player in the NFL. FWIW, unlike Cordy, Tavon CAN run routes well, and ALSO is just as electric in space(possibly even more). The biggest tip in the favor of Cordy is being able to make something from nothing when there is one defender to shake, and slight contact. Tavon needs 0 contact, or he falls lol.

Anywho, hope this helps shed some light on Tavon's possible longterm outlook. He may pan out to nothing, but IMO it's not worth selling for nothing.

[BuckeyeNation]

Whether you believe in Tavon or not, he's definitely not a sell. If you own him and don't believe in him, you have to hold. He's not bringing much in return. If you don't own him but believe there's still solid upside there, then he's a buy. You could probably get him for a 2nd from a disgruntled owner. Maybe even cheaper than that. I'm not sure though, as I haven't attempted to purchase him anywhere.

[failblazer]

These were my thoughts EXACTLY!

Firstly, I was invested in Bradford, as I took him in the 4th round of my 2QB startup right after his rookie season. I had an incredible belief in Bradford's ability and hope of becoming a mainstay NFL QB. With that being said, like Knuckles mentioned, Amendola could have been a fantasy MONSTER had he or Bradford EVER stayed healthy together. I was of the belief that Tavon would slot right into that Amendola role and break the mold for rookie WR's, similar to Cooks in NO. I had done extensive research and wrote a pretty long piece for a thread a WAYS back about the value of being Bradford's slot/go to WR. IMHO there was just so much to be excited for. Quite frankly, I couldn't have been happier with his volume when ACTUALLY playing with Bradford, which is where his monster value lied for me. FWIW(and most people really don't bother to look past the numbers), but in Tavon's first 5 games as a rookie in the NFL, and the only games he EVER played with Bradford, his target distribution were as follows:

Week 1: 7
Week 2: 12
Week 3: 7
Week 4: 8
Week 5: 6

Those are some MASSIVE targets for a WR in their first 5 games EVER in the NFL. Not only that, but he had 6 receptions in each of his first 3 games in the NFL, where he only had 7 targets in 2 of those games(so he caught 6 of 7 targets). IMO, that means he was getting open AND catching the balls that were being thrown his way. Even in week 3, when he had 6 receptions among 12 targets, he was still getting a ton of volume in targets because, well he was getting open. That's usually the reason WR's are thrown to lol.

When Bradford got injured in week 5, Tavon's targets took a monstrous hit the rest of the season, and led to very pedestrian numbers. He only saw 7 targets once more the rest of the season.


When you really boil all of this down, I think people are somewhat devaluing him way too little. There is CLEARLY a possibility of bust status, but there is also a very large amount of upside if the stars align properly. Next year, the Rams could very well be spending a high pick on a signal caller, and you can almost guarantee they won't be using a high pick on a WR because of the heavy volume of picks they have used in recent years. It very well may seem that he is not an NFL caliber WR because of his size, but I think thats a poor way of thinking. Obviously, size is a MAJOR asset for NFL WR's, and I almost ALWAYS won't draft guys who don't fit the mold for prototypical NFL WRs, but I think writing him off completely because of this is not fair to him. He was the 9th overall player selected in a somewhat deep class, and showed some flashes as a rookie that he can actually be an awesome player in the NFL. FWIW, unlike Cordy, Tavon CAN run routes well, and ALSO is just as electric in space(possibly even more). The biggest tip in the favor of Cordy is being able to make something from nothing when there is one defender to shake, and slight contact. Tavon needs 0 contact, or he falls lol.

Anywho, hope this helps shed some light on Tavon's possible longterm outlook. He may pan out to nothing, but IMO it's not worth selling for nothing.

A very interesting read indeed. That's for taking the time and effort to put that together. I disagree with it for the most part but obviously I'm not an NFL scout so I could very easily be wrong on Tavon. Great to read a well thought out counter argument. I was a big Bradford believer too. I thought he really had what it took and likewise I was a big fan of Amendola. Such a shame neither stayed healthy. Those two together could have really changed the fortunes of that franchise.

Now, my main problem with your analysis is the players you're comparing Tavon to. Obviously there simply aren't many players Tavon's size so you have to compare him to the nearest guys but even then I think the size difference is significant.

Cordarrelle Patterson - 6'2" 220lbs
Danny Amendola - 5'11" 195lbs
Brandin Cooks - 5'10" 189lbs
Tavon Austin - 5'8" 176lbs

Tavon to me is too small to break tackles in the NFL. I saw Richard Sherman's Sound FX yesterday and you hear him commenting on the fact that he couldn't knock down Patterson because he's "a little thicker than I thought". To me that's the key difference between those two or even a guy like Harvin (5'11" 184lbs). They have a chance to break a tackle against an NFL defensive back. Sure, Tavon can likely make men miss but at some point he's going to need to break tackles too. Even against smaller slot defenders who are deemed "too small" to play on the outside, they still have a size edge:

Brandon Boykin - 5'10" 185lbs
Tyrann Mathieu - 5'9" 186lbs

Even a guy like Jason Verrett who was knocked as being way too small is 5'10" 178lbs.

Now, in the interest of balance, there is one guy who comes to mind as similar in size and build who has made a good living as a big time receiver in the NFL and that's DeSean Jackson (5'10" 175lbs). Their combine numbers are actually very similar (and Tavon even has 5lbs on Jackson's combine weight) so I think perhaps this is the best comp I can come up with (I was going to be harsh and say Trindon Holliday). Maybe that is Tavon's upside but even then is that worthy of where he was drafted? Jackson was a mid 2nd round pick in real life and his best fantasy season, with the "stars aligning" as you put it (i.e. great system, good (if perhaps system dependent, but that's an argument for a different day) QB, other players to take focus) is the PPR WR12. That's obviously not bad by any means but when that's Tavon's absolute best case scenario (and his current scenario is much, MUCH worse with a rotating cast of mediocre QBs and the least imaginative offensive coordinator in football) then I find it hard to get too excited for Tavon Austin's future.

I hope he does well and proves me and other doubters wrong. If he's the kind of player you think he is then I'll have a lot of fun watching him prove me wrong but I think he's more suited to a situational role and making an impact in the return game.

Whether you believe in Tavon or not, he's definitely not a sell. If you own him and don't believe in him, you have to hold. He's not bringing much in return. If you don't own him but believe there's still solid upside there, then he's a buy. You could probably get him for a 2nd from a disgruntled owner. Maybe even cheaper than that. I'm not sure though, as I haven't attempted to purchase him anywhere.

I agree with this. Whether you believe in Tavon or not, he is likely to bust out a massive game a some point and remind people of the hype he was generating at draft time. That's the time to sell.

[RGKID144]

These were my thoughts EXACTLY!

Firstly, I was invested in Bradford, as I took him in the 4th round of my 2QB startup right after his rookie season. I had an incredible belief in Bradford's ability and hope of becoming a mainstay NFL QB. With that being said, like Knuckles mentioned, Amendola could have been a fantasy MONSTER had he or Bradford EVER stayed healthy together. I was of the belief that Tavon would slot right into that Amendola role and break the mold for rookie WR's, similar to Cooks in NO. I had done extensive research and wrote a pretty long piece for a thread a WAYS back about the value of being Bradford's slot/go to WR. IMHO there was just so much to be excited for. Quite frankly, I couldn't have been happier with his volume when ACTUALLY playing with Bradford, which is where his monster value lied for me. FWIW(and most people really don't bother to look past the numbers), but in Tavon's first 5 games as a rookie in the NFL, and the only games he EVER played with Bradford, his target distribution were as follows:

Week 1: 7
Week 2: 12
Week 3: 7
Week 4: 8
Week 5: 6

Those are some MASSIVE targets for a WR in their first 5 games EVER in the NFL. Not only that, but he had 6 receptions in each of his first 3 games in the NFL, where he only had 7 targets in 2 of those games(so he caught 6 of 7 targets). IMO, that means he was getting open AND catching the balls that were being thrown his way. Even in week 3, when he had 6 receptions among 12 targets, he was still getting a ton of volume in targets because, well he was getting open. That's usually the reason WR's are thrown to lol.

When Bradford got injured in week 5, Tavon's targets took a monstrous hit the rest of the season, and led to very pedestrian numbers. He only saw 7 targets once more the rest of the season.


When you really boil all of this down, I think people are somewhat devaluing him way too little. There is CLEARLY a possibility of bust status, but there is also a very large amount of upside if the stars align properly. Next year, the Rams could very well be spending a high pick on a signal caller, and you can almost guarantee they won't be using a high pick on a WR because of the heavy volume of picks they have used in recent years. It very well may seem that he is not an NFL caliber WR because of his size, but I think thats a poor way of thinking. Obviously, size is a MAJOR asset for NFL WR's, and I almost ALWAYS won't draft guys who don't fit the mold for prototypical NFL WRs, but I think writing him off completely because of this is not fair to him. He was the 9th overall player selected in a somewhat deep class, and showed some flashes as a rookie that he can actually be an awesome player in the NFL. FWIW, unlike Cordy, Tavon CAN run routes well, and ALSO is just as electric in space(possibly even more). The biggest tip in the favor of Cordy is being able to make something from nothing when there is one defender to shake, and slight contact. Tavon needs 0 contact, or he falls lol.

Anywho, hope this helps shed some light on Tavon's possible longterm outlook. He may pan out to nothing, but IMO it's not worth selling for nothing.

A very interesting read indeed. That's for taking the time and effort to put that together. I disagree with it for the most part but obviously I'm not an NFL scout so I could very easily be wrong on Tavon. Great to read a well thought out counter argument. I was a big Bradford believer too. I thought he really had what it took and likewise I was a big fan of Amendola. Such a shame neither stayed healthy. Those two together could have really changed the fortunes of that franchise.

Now, my main problem with your analysis is the players you're comparing Tavon to. Obviously there simply aren't many players Tavon's size so you have to compare him to the nearest guys but even then I think the size difference is significant.

Cordarrelle Patterson - 6'2" 220lbs
Danny Amendola - 5'11" 195lbs
Brandin Cooks - 5'10" 189lbs
Tavon Austin - 5'8" 176lbs

Tavon to me is too small to break tackles in the NFL. I saw Richard Sherman's Sound FX yesterday and you hear him commenting on the fact that he couldn't knock down Patterson because he's "a little thicker than I thought". To me that's the key difference between those two or even a guy like Harvin (5'11" 184lbs). They have a chance to break a tackle against an NFL defensive back. Sure, Tavon can likely make men miss but at some point he's going to need to break tackles too. Even against smaller slot defenders who are deemed "too small" to play on the outside, they still have a size edge:

Brandon Boykin - 5'10" 185lbs
Tyrann Mathieu - 5'9" 186lbs

Even a guy like Jason Verrett who was knocked as being way too small is 5'10" 178lbs.

Now, in the interest of balance, there is one guy who comes to mind as similar in size and build who has made a good living as a big time receiver in the NFL and that's DeSean Jackson (5'10" 175lbs). Their combine numbers are actually very similar (and Tavon even has 5lbs on Jackson's combine weight) so I think perhaps this is the best comp I can come up with (I was going to be harsh and say Trindon Holliday). Maybe that is Tavon's upside but even then is that worthy of where he was drafted? Jackson was a mid 2nd round pick in real life and his best fantasy season, with the "stars aligning" as you put it (i.e. great system, good (if perhaps system dependent, but that's an argument for a different day) QB, other players to take focus) is the PPR WR12. That's obviously not bad by any means but when that's Tavon's absolute best case scenario (and his current scenario is much, MUCH worse with a rotating cast of mediocre QBs and the least imaginative offensive coordinator in football) then I find it hard to get too excited for Tavon Austin's future.

I hope he does well and proves me and other doubters wrong. If he's the kind of player you think he is then I'll have a lot of fun watching him prove me wrong but I think he's more suited to a situational role and making an impact in the return game.

Whether you believe in Tavon or not, he's definitely not a sell. If you own him and don't believe in him, you have to hold. He's not bringing much in return. If you don't own him but believe there's still solid upside there, then he's a buy. You could probably get him for a 2nd from a disgruntled owner. Maybe even cheaper than that. I'm not sure though, as I haven't attempted to purchase him anywhere.

I agree with this. Whether you believe in Tavon or not, he is likely to bust out a massive game a some point and remind people of the hype he was generating at draft time. That's the time to sell.

Lol, a big thanks right back atcha for the response!

So, a couple of things......

Firstly, I may not have been as clear as I should have, but I wasn't in any way trying to compare Tavon to any of said players. I completely agree(and I think I mentioned it in my rant) that Tavon really just can't break tackles. He won't and probably never will. He is however(also like I mentioned), just as electric and dangerous in space as any of said players as well lol. When not having to make any contact with defenders, strictly with the ball in his hands, from anywhere on the field, needing to find a seam/hole/best route to gain a large chunk, Tavon is just as dangerous as any of them. The issue is having the right personnel to be able to make that happen for one player. That means having the right OC to create a package that can create the right blocking, and set up the proper mismatches for this to happen, an offensive line that can block long enough for the play to develop, AND a QB who can recognize that the play being called has been properly developed and that Tavon is making good on his assignment, and for said QB to be able to find him instead of "hearing the footsteps" as I like to call it and thinking there is any type of pressure and going elsewhere in his progressions to either a checkdown or other route being run.

That sure does seem like quite a perfect storm of events for Tavon to make an impact on a play.

Which brings me to my next point......

One of my main ideas I was trying to convey is that I think I certainly did indeed draft Tavon for situation over talent(which is something I really try and rarely do). Hence why I went into pretty serious details about how I thought Tavon would slot right into Amendola's role, and with Bradford using his slot man relentlessly through his career, I saw monstrous stats lol.

NOW, with all that being said, even though I did make the mistake of drafting him quite frankly for situation(overdrafted him is probably the better word), owners who did this like me need to be optimistic and try and see the good throughout his first 15 or so games, because there has been some good mixed in. I mentioned his targets because I don't think it was a matter of them forcefeeding him the rock, but more of him actually playing well(and that was in his first 3-5 games as a pro). Obviously, he regressed the rest of the season, but he also had a different signal caller who may not have had any type of rapport with, and who may not be a QB who generally likes to find gadget type players like Tavon. Without proper accuracy, some QB's like to just throw it up to big WR's and let them do the hard work. Unfortunately for Tavon, that puts him at an extreme disadvantage. With the right QB and OC though, I do think Tavon can succeed in the NFL. Even if the stars really need to align and all of the above needs to happen(which is probably rare), there has been some nice glimpses of WVU Tavon so far in his short NFL career.

It may take a few years, or just a personnel/team change, but us Tavon owners can't simply give up at this point. He has way too much football left for me at least to call him a bust. He may be the next Ted Ginn Jr, or he may be a Joique Bell/ Darren Sproles type player who's careers are resurrected upon arriving/returning to schemes/personnel/teams that want to highlight their attributes, and can do it effectively.

Hope this further sheds some light on what I was getting at, so thanks for the feedback and response!

[steeltown75]

Hold until he has a big game then shop him hard. I don't have faith in him to ever be a fantasy starter

[Cameron Giles]

Can't argue that his QB situation has been bad and likely will continue to be bad for several more years. That hurts his value even if it's a reasonable explanation for his lack of production.

He got a decent amount of snaps and targets in 2013. The production wasn't there. I guess the above comparison to Patterson is because they were drafted the same year - if you look at the numbers they actually got similar chances and produced similar results. I'd much rather have Patterson because of his frame. Not of fan of the small guys - although there's no arguing with what NOS has gotten out of Cooks.

I have my doubts about Austin (and did coming in) he was highly drafted in most leagues and if I could sell for a 2015 first of any sort I think I would.

Don't get me wrong, I'm taking Patterson over Austin too. But I think Austin is being tremendously undervalued mostly because he didn't live up to lofty expectations. Statistically there wasn't a big difference between the two last season, yet Patterson was being hailed as a WR1 and people were cutting bait with Austin.

From a fantasy perspective, Austin's unlikely to ever be a WR1. But with time, he could definitely be a matchup-dependent WR2/high end WR-3 in PPR leagues. The Rams haven't really sunk their teeth into his talent yet.Additionally, they need consistent QB play, which is up in the air given Bradford's injury. If they're bad enough this year, they could definitely be in the market for Winston or Mariota.

[Falim]

I agree with this. Whether you believe in Tavon or not, he is likely to bust out a massive game a some point and remind people of the hype he was generating at draft time. That's the time to sell.

I doubt anyone is going to see 1 big game from Austin at this point and think to themselves that they should go out and buy. Especially with Quick doing so much better. You're gonna need multiple good games to see any uptick in value. And because Quick is doing so well, you aren't able to just discount his issues as QB issues.

[GregOfTheDead]

For what it's worth the Tavon Austin owner in my league has been trying to sell him for a first rounder for months in my 16 team league and nobody is interested.