Giovanni Bernard....

[Jfever]

Sample size has much more to do with this than many are alluding. If you truly understand the statistics side of the game - you'd then understand that said stats can be manipulated to suit different points of view. Bottom line - we don't have near enough actual NFL data to crown Hill the "winner" of this backfield like many are doing. He has looked good. At times very good. Absolutely!!! Limited carries though - prevent me from saying that Hill > Gio. More data is needed to come to an accurate conclusion. As of today - it is still a split backfield including two talented runners. Hill has shown promise. He's shown flashes, and he's shown the play making ability that one wants to see. He runs hard and effectively between the tackles. He also has more than adequate size and speed. Problem is - when healthy - we already knew Gio was all those things. He (Gio) is a play maker. He is young, he is electric, and he is a special play maker in his own right and - he is firmly entrenched on the Bengal's roster along side Hill for the short and likely, long run. Looking at the statistical breakdown of 9-10 carries vs 9-10 carries and using that conclusion from that one game (the very game that Gio returned to limited action coming back from a clavicle and a hip injury ) to determine which of two runners is more effective or consistent - is just too much extrapolation for me. I'm not saying it doesn't mean anything at all mind you, rather, I'm saying don't read quite that much into small sizes of data as it doesn't work that way. More time is needed to come to an accurate conclusion in this case. Anyone saying otherwise - likely doesn't understand the situation or - otherwise has some personal bias involved.

[drobes]

Basically what i'm seeing here in the "power run" comparison is that Gio got screwed by being blown up in the backfield for -5 yards on the one play. He has zero control over that and when we are looking at such tiny sample sizes it has a huge impact. Take that out and he's at 8 carries for 34 yards.

I agree that if we could eliminate the carries that go for a loss or no gain then Gio would be an extremely good fit for a power run scheme.

[49ersFaithful80]

Basically what i'm seeing here in the "power run" comparison is that Gio got screwed by being blown up in the backfield for -5 yards on the one play. He has zero control over that and when we are looking at such tiny sample sizes it has a huge impact. Take that out and he's at 8 carries for 34 yards.

I agree that if we could eliminate the carries that go for a loss or no gain then Gio would be an extremely good fit for a power run scheme.

Not what I was saying, but extreme losses like -5 yards have 100% nothing to do with the RB.

Do you disagree with this? Do you think Gio took the handoff and started sprinting backwards? or do you think he got blown up the second he touched the ball? Hill was lucky enough to not have any -5 yard carries to destroy his ypc.

[the_future]

I'm sorry man but if you don't even know it's Jeremy Hill, then I'm not sure how I can respect your opinion. I'm a Bengals fan who has watched all of their carries. It is pretty clear that Hill is a more "complete" back. He can do it all, plus he is much better at hitting the hole than Gio. And Hill only getting a yard or two? That's due to the Texans being in the backfield a lot. I'm pretty sure Gio had more one or two yard runs than Hill. This is because Hill will get what is blocked while Gio usually needs a big gaping hole to run through. I think they are both great backs but Hill should be the lead back in my opinion. And sorry I didn't mean to attack PHV just don't know where Bell came from haha

Well said, couldn't agree more.

[ericanadian]

Touches may have been 50/50, but Gio is still getting 60% of the snaps in his first game back from injury.

[DLFiend]

I mean, based on yesterday's performances (and the season's) it's pretty clear that Hill is the lead dog for carries.

Thru 2014 season:

Hill: 131 rushes, 643 yards, 4.9 YPC
Gio: 126 rushes, 491 yards, 3.9 YPC


Reception numbers put Hill ahead too:

Hill: 17 catches, 168 yards, 9.9 YPR
Gio: 24 catches, 201 yards, 8.4 YPR

He's also pulled ahead by 5 touches - so it looks like I'm probably going to win that bet.

[ericanadian]

I mean, based on yesterday's performances (and the season's) it's pretty clear that Hill is the lead dog for carries.

Thru 2014 season:

Hill: 131 rushes, 643 yards, 4.9 YPC
Gio: 126 rushes, 491 yards, 3.9 YPC


Reception numbers put Hill ahead too:

Hill: 17 catches, 168 yards, 9.9 YPR
Gio: 24 catches, 201 yards, 8.4 YPR

He's also pulled ahead by 5 touches - so it looks like I'm probably going to win that bet.

Cincy was ahead the whole game, Gio was in his first game back from injury and the snaps were still 60/40 Gio and the touches were 50/50. If Cincy is trailing significantly, how do you think the snaps/touches are going to shake out?

[DLFiend]

Hmmm, I've got a RB getting a full yard more than my other RB, but it makes more sense to give the less efficient guy more touches. Yeah, makes sense. Gio will definitely get more carries now.

[ericanadian]

Hmmm, I've got a RB getting a full yard more than my other RB, but it makes more sense to give the less efficient guy more touches. Yeah, makes sense. Gio will definitely get more carries now.

It's exactly what they did last year when Law Firm was being outpaced by Gio. Gio had a 0.7 ypc advantage at the end of the year after finishing the year with three straight games of 13 carries at 2.5 ypc or less... I can't be bothered to do the math, but it should be pretty clear that stupid is an option here. You also completely failed to address my point about how when the situation becomes pass first, the extra ypc is meaningless because you're not going to run.

[snitchinsider]

Hmmm, I've got a RB getting a full yard more than my other RB, but it makes more sense to give the less efficient guy more touches. Yeah, makes sense. Gio will definitely get more carries now.

It's exactly what they did last year when Law Firm was being outpaced by Gio. Gio had a 0.7 ypc advantage at the end of the year after finishing the year with three straight games of 13 carries at 2.5 ypc or less... I can't be bothered to do the math, but it should be pretty clear that stupid is an option here. You also completely failed to address my point about how when the situation becomes pass first, the extra ypc is meaningless because you're not going to run.

1. The Law Firm was a stop-gap player. Jeremy Hill is not.
2. Gio has 24 catches on the season for 8.4 yards per reception. Hill has 17 catches for 9.9 yards per reception.

So what point are you making? Yes, Gio is a better pass catcher, I don't think anyone would argue that, but Hill certainly isn't a liability in that department. Also, you're ceasing to consider that situations are less likely to become pass first when you're running more effectively.

Everything about the skillset of the two players, if you were a coach, would lead you to eventually prefer using Hill on early downs and Bernard as CoP/third-down back. Certainly more of a platoon than those descriptions might lead you to believe, but nonetheless any reasonable coach would come to the same conclusion. It's simply too good a fit for both of their skillsets as players.

I don't think DLFiend is correct in that it's going to shake out that way right away, but it's going to trend in that direction.

[ericanadian]

What does Law Firm being a stop gap have to so with anything? He got more snaps and touches than Gio even though Gio vastly outperformed him in all measurables. DLF is arguing Hill is going to receive more touches this year. My point is that this staff has already shown a preference towards the vet regardless of measurable performance. I think if things continue this direction, then next year is definitely a possibility for Hill to take the lead.

That said, Gio is not some washed up plodder like Law Firm, so he'll almost certainly continue to see some action. Even if he drops to a 70-30 split in Hill's favour, if you believe in his talent, that should be all he needs to eventually re-establish himself. Gio was running at a 4.7 clip 13 games into his career. Unless you see Hill immediately supplanting Gio, there is still a lot of time for Hill to hit a rookie wall, or Gio to turn it back on. I think there's definitely an RBBC here either way, but any Gio owner with any sense knew that was coming even before Hill was drafted.

[Jfever]

The thing to take note of here is simple - Gio has literally proven that he can be a top 10 producing dynasty rb in ppr scoring with 50% of his team's rb touches. I assume we as a dynasty community do remember that as it wasn't very long ago. But, you know what they say about assuming.... Seems to me that many in this pastime are a touch too quick on the trigger when it comes to conveniently forgetting certain facts. Alot of this Hill is taking over in a 70/30 split hoopla - has much to do about nothing. Gio is 23 years old, is talented, well liked by his coaching staff, has been clean off the field, well liked by the Bengals organization and fan base,and isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Hill definitely deserves his touches as he's been very efficient with what he's gotten. He's proven that he can handle it and then some. As a Gio owner / and not a Hill owner - I'm totally ok with the idea of limiting Gio's touches and the Bengals splitting carries up 50-50 ish. It makes sense for all involved. I don't think it has to be one or the other or a winner and loser like some posters hint at is all.

[49ersFaithful80]

I still expect Gio to end the season with the most carries considering he got 50% when they were "easing him back in".

Either way, if you go back and look at my original statement I am correct.

I said that the only way Hill has more carries is if Gio gets hurt. In theory the Hill supporters are wrong no matter what because their whole argument was that Hill would have more carries in 16 than Gio would have in 16 games.

If Hill ends up with a tiny bit more carries it's 100% because Gio missed three games.

[dlf_jules]

I still expect Gio to end the season with the most carries considering he got 50% when they were "easing him back in".

Either way, if you go back and look at my original statement I am correct.

I said that the only way Hill has more carries is if Gio gets hurt. In theory the Hill supporters are wrong no matter what because their whole argument was that Hill would have more carries in 16 than Gio would have in 16 games.

If Hill ends up with a tiny bit more carries it's 100% because Gio missed three games.

Correct. I don't have a dog in this fight -- I own Hill more than Gio, and I don't particularly care for 49ersFaithful's or DLFiend's posting styles -- but DLFiend's behavior in this thread is farcical.

First, he claims that he'd "bet good money that Hill has more carries than Gio this year." Then he fails to accept a bet (monetary or otherwise) when you call his bluff. Then radio silence while Gio outcarries Hill 109-50 in the first seven weeks. Then, only after Gio is hurt for three weeks (allowing Hill to take a slim lead in carries), he comes back in and pretends that he's been right all along. I truly don't understand his thinking.

[the_future]

Hmmm, I've got a RB getting a full yard more than my other RB, but it makes more sense to give the less efficient guy more touches. Yeah, makes sense. Gio will definitely get more carries now.

It's exactly what they did last year when Law Firm was being outpaced by Gio. Gio had a 0.7 ypc advantage at the end of the year after finishing the year with three straight games of 13 carries at 2.5 ypc or less... I can't be bothered to do the math, but it should be pretty clear that stupid is an option here. You also completely failed to address my point about how when the situation becomes pass first, the extra ypc is meaningless because you're not going to run.

Please do not compare BJGE to Hill...