Torrey Smith

[breeze]

I'm making this thread to see if I'm crazy. I literally would not trade a 2014 mid 2nd round pick for this guy. He has 4.4 speed. That's it. He can't run routes and he can't make tough catches. The windows in the NFL are tight and you need to be able to make tough catches. I think he is more of a straight line sprinter than a football player. He doesn't have the footwork to run any precise routes to beat a good NFL corner. I think last year was his ceiling and the Ravens will start bringing in better and younger weapons next year and he will just fall in line of a guy that catches a bomb every once in a while. Am I crazy?

[breeze]

Apparently I'm crazy haha

[TommyL31]

Really interested to see how this plays out given our back and forth in the other thread. I think he's right on the cusp of low WR2/high WR3 so whether he's top 25 or top 30 is a tough call for me.

I think he's more than just a speedster and has improved his route running but it's still not his strong suit. I think he's a decent jumper and when making catches over the middle makes a good first cut move. He's not elite but I don't think many are arguing that. Wouldn't want him as my WR2 (which I've had in past years) but as a WR3/flex I'm happy.

[Krang]

I voted top 25, because he's proven to be capable of such numbers. That said, I don't view him as a guy that will ever flirt with elite production because, as you mentioned, he just doesn't seem versatile enough. I'm not even honestly convinced I consider him a legit deep threat either. In his career so far (3 seasons), I think I counted 16 receptions of at least 40 yards - not necessarily 40 yards downfield, but that went for a 40+ yard gain. Of those 16 though, only 7 of them have gone for more than 50 yards. Now, I don't have numbers for other "deep threat" WRs to compare him to, but to me those totals seem pretty low for a dude who is widely considered to be mostly just a speed guy. The real problem for me, though, is that in his career thus far, he has caught only about 48% of his targets, and despite his 139 targets last year because they had no one else to throw to, he still only had 65 catches and 4 touchdowns. Out of the 22 WRs with at least 130 targets last year, Smith was dead last in receptions, and only 7 of those other 21 had fewer yards than Smith. What does all this tell me? That, even with an increased opportunity for involvement in the passing game, he's just simply not that good of a WR. Worth having, definitely, but anyone who is hoping for the guy to be a WR1 is probably going to be waiting a looooong time.

[breeze]

Looks like 25-30 is taking the cake. So high to mid WR3.

So looks like he is overrated by some who call him WR2 and underrated by people like me (if there are any haha)

[dlf_jules]

Out of the 22 WRs with at least 130 targets last year, Smith was dead last in receptions, and only 7 of those other 21 had fewer yards than Smith. What does all this tell me?

It tells me you're cherry-picking stats. Why would you use absolute numbers when the cutoff of 130 targets means that most of the WR/TEs in the group had more opportunities than Torrey.

Let's look at per-target numbers: Torrey was 22/22 in receptions per target, but 9/22 in yards/target. Who was ahead of him? Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Alshon Jeffery, Eric Decker, Antonio Brown, Anquan Boldin, and Jimmy Graham.

What does that tell me? He was used as a deep threat. And he's pretty effective as a deep threat. That doesn't count much in ppr fantasy football, but he's actually a pretty darn productive WR.

[AZK]

The Ravens front office must really like him as their WR1 because this year was the year to pick up some WR competition in the draft and instead all they did was add an aging Steve Smith and a 7th round WR. I own him in one league but have been shopping him all offseason.

[all day]

I think that he is right in the top 25-30 conversation and will remain there. The thing is that it doesn't take much to get into that area. 1100 yards a 4 TDs should do it and in the modern NFL, it doesn't take much to get there. I would be scared if he was my WR1 but as a WR3 or flex player, you can do a lot worse.

The thing is that last year was about as bad as the Ravens offense could have been. Pitta was out hurt, there was a rookie WR on the other side and 0 running game. Steve Smith may not be a spring chicken but I am sure that having him out there will only help Smith. Pitta being back is a good thing for them too. I still worry about their running game but it can't be worse.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Considered the WR1 by his organization and paired with the self proclaimed "best QB" in the league, yet I wouldn't touch him...

[breeze]

In a previous thread I have said that I would rather have Marvin Jones than him. Just looked at DLF rankings and Jones is the 56 ranked WR by average.

Do Marvin and Torrey really differ by 30 spots? If Torrey is a strong WR3 I would assume Marvin is more like a strong WR4 to the general public, not low WR5.

[ebsteelers]

kind of funny that I was thinking about starting a price check on Torrey Smith thread today.

Interested to see these responses.

[TommyL31]

I voted top 25, because he's proven to be capable of such numbers. That said, I don't view him as a guy that will ever flirt with elite production because, as you mentioned, he just doesn't seem versatile enough. I'm not even honestly convinced I consider him a legit deep threat either. In his career so far (3 seasons), I think I counted 16 receptions of at least 40 yards - not necessarily 40 yards downfield, but that went for a 40+ yard gain. Of those 16 though, only 7 of them have gone for more than 50 yards. Now, I don't have numbers for other "deep threat" WRs to compare him to, but to me those totals seem pretty low for a dude who is widely considered to be mostly just a speed guy. The real problem for me, though, is that in his career thus far, he has caught only about 48% of his targets, and despite his 139 targets last year because they had no one else to throw to, he still only had 65 catches and 4 touchdowns. Out of the 22 WRs with at least 130 targets last year, Smith was dead last in receptions, and only 7 of those other 21 had fewer yards than Smith. What does all this tell me? That, even with an increased opportunity for involvement in the passing game, he's just simply not that good of a WR. Worth having, definitely, but anyone who is hoping for the guy to be a WR1 is probably going to be waiting a looooong time.

Looking at big play WRs (more than 15.7 ypc and at least 4 40+ yd receptions this year) here's what percentage of their 40+ yard receptions went for 50+ in the last 3 years (Torrey Smith's career)

Kenny Stills 4 of 5 (80%)
Hakeem Nicks 7 of 11 (64%)
Calvin Johnson 12 of 20 (60%)
Vincent Jackson 8 of 15 (53%)
Desean Jackson 8 of 15 (53%)
Justin Hunter 2 of 4 (50%)
Alshon Jeffery 4 of 9 (44%)
Josh Gordon 5 of 12 (42%)
Torrey Smith: 7 of 17 (41%)
Riley Cooper: 2 of 8 (25%)

So he's certainly on the low side of that but in decent company with Alshon and Gordon. He also has the second most receptions of 40+ of the guys on this list which is not too bad.

One thing I'll point out is that, from what I've seen, he's kind of an in betweener in terms of big plays. You have guys like Desean Jackson and Mike Wallace who are lightning fast and either lose their defender pre or post catch on almost speed alone and that's how they get big plays and then you have guys like AJ Green and Vincent Jackson who are fast enough but get most of their big plays on being able to get down field and high point the ball and use their height.

Torrey isn't as fast as Wallace or Desean and isn't as tall as AJ or Vincent so often when he catches big passes he can win a fight for the ball but he's not big enough like Green or VJax (or Calvin who pretty much has it all) who can break the tackle of a guy draped over him. Partially I think that's a reason why Torrey may not get as many 50+ yard plays. I think it's impressive that he gets as many 40+ as he does but because of his lack of elite size or speed I do agree that his overall upside is limited.

[Telperion]

He's never put up higher than WR3 numbers on a PPG basis his whole career. He was in TY, Michael Floyd, Colston, Riley Cooper, Brian Hartline, Denarius Moore territory last year.

Sounds about like middle WR3.

[dlf_jules]

Looking at big play WRs (more than 15.7 ypc and at least 4 40+ yd receptions this year) here's what percentage of their 40+ yard receptions went for 50+ in the last 3 years (Torrey Smith's career)

Kenny Stills 4 of 5 (80%)
Hakeem Nicks 7 of 11 (64%)
Calvin Johnson 12 of 20 (60%)
Vincent Jackson 8 of 15 (53%)
Desean Jackson 8 of 15 (53%)
Justin Hunter 2 of 4 (50%)
Alshon Jeffery 4 of 9 (44%)
Josh Gordon 5 of 12 (42%)
Torrey Smith: 7 of 17 (41%)
Riley Cooper: 2 of 8 (25%)

Curious: where are you pulling this data? To me, the more informative number would be what percentage of a player's 40+ (or 35+ or 45+) yard receptions went for TDs.

[dlf_jules]

Looking at those same guys, here's what percentage of their 40+ yard catches went for TDs. These are still small sample sizes, but I think this is a better measure of "breakaway" speed. If I can get my hands on 30+ yard reception numbers, I can run those too.

Kenny Stills 4 of 5 (80%)
Josh Gordon 8 of 12 (67%)
Justin Hunter 2 of 4 (50%)
Alshon Jeffery 4 of 9 (44%)
Calvin Johnson 8 of 20 (40%)
Riley Cooper: 3 of 8 (38%)
Desean Jackson 5 of 15 (33%)
Torrey Smith: 3 of 17 (18%)
Vincent Jackson 2 of 15 (13%)
Hakeem Nicks 0 of 11 (0%)