Food for thought

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Re: Food for thought

Postby BwK » Mon May 26, 2014 1:13 pm

Shoreline Steamers wrote:Decker had 8 TD's the year before Manning showed up. Like I say, the examples are debatable.

I see what you're saying in that this is possibly shaping your thinking with regards to who you'll take a chance on at WR with players outside the NFL's first round. We all come up with our own ideas about how we'll draft and what is important in a prospect. I just tend to agree with the "no magic bullet" sentiment.

Your 2014 WR board might look something like this: Watkins (1), Evans (1), Beckham (1), Cooks (1), Benjamin (1), Richardson (2) (Russell Wilson?), Adams (2) (Rodgers), Latimer (2) (Manning), Moncrief (3) (Luck), Bryant (4) (Big Ben), Norwood (4) (R. Wilson?), Grant (5) (RGIII), Abbrederis (5) (Rodgers), Jones (6) (Stafford), Janis (7) (Rodgers), Gallon (7) (Brady),
this is exactly what I was thinking. But perhaps move some of the second round players with elite quarterbacks over wide receivers taken in the first round.
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Re: Food for thought

Postby BwK » Mon May 26, 2014 1:28 pm

TommyL31 wrote:
knotts4372 wrote:im not upset at all lol. everyone sees you just wanna come off as some holier than thou guy and you wanna argue otherwise smart examples and say they don't fit. to say eli and big ben are elite qb is a joke, so Antonio brown and victor cruz are great examples. especially cruz cause hes been doing well for like 3 years now. chad Johnson also someone mentioned and the comeback is carson palmer elite. your comebacks are quite funny tho. their has been no fewer than 10 guts that take this theory and throw it right out the window. their is no exact formula to success no matter how much you want this to work
I personally think this raises a good question: do some of these borderline 'elite' QBs only appear so because they've had decent receiving options? Ben has always had Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown. How do you identify an elite QB and separate him from the weapons he has?
great point.but my response to that is what has Wallace done since he left ben? Bust .what has holmes done since he left ben? Bust! Hines Ward was great but I believe Brown is also a product of Ben. When I have time I will develop a formula that determines the elite quarterback. I'm sure Ben will be in that class
10 team non-ppr no FA pickups
QB- Ryan, Romo, Winston
RB-Foster, GIO, Mathews, L. Murray, JStew, Duke
WR-Green, Sammy, Benjamin, B. Coleman, Fitzgerald, Lee, Latimer, Algholar, C. Coleman, Doctson
TE-Graham, Green
K-Bailey, Prater
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Re: Food for thought

Postby ConnSKINS26 » Mon May 26, 2014 1:54 pm

Anybody who actually watches football will tell you Big Ben is a bonafide elite QB. It doesn't always translate to fantasy success, but he's a great QB.

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Re: Food for thought

Postby the_future » Mon May 26, 2014 2:01 pm

knotts4372 wrote:elite qb? that's a joke. guess you have a very different idea of elite than I. elite to me is top 5, they aren't even top 15 and in eli's case prob not even top 20. elite...come on now :nono:
If one were to argue Eli Manning is elite than they are also stating that Trent Dilfer is elite.

Eli won those two Super Bowls for one reason and one reason alone: One of the best defensive lines to ever play the game.

Eli elite... lol, that just made my day.

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Re: Food for thought

Postby Needalife » Mon May 26, 2014 3:36 pm

I think it'd be interesting to factor in height to this analysis. VJax and Marshall were studs with superior size. My guess is that you will see fewer examples under 6'1" who became studs. I'm looking at you Marquis Lee! Sorry, I'm very height biased based on top 15 WRs over the last few years.

In addition to the guys mentioned, I'll add Colston to the short list.
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Re: Food for thought

Postby TommyL31 » Mon May 26, 2014 3:45 pm

BwK wrote:
TommyL31 wrote:
knotts4372 wrote:im not upset at all lol. everyone sees you just wanna come off as some holier than thou guy and you wanna argue otherwise smart examples and say they don't fit. to say eli and big ben are elite qb is a joke, so Antonio brown and victor cruz are great examples. especially cruz cause hes been doing well for like 3 years now. chad Johnson also someone mentioned and the comeback is carson palmer elite. your comebacks are quite funny tho. their has been no fewer than 10 guts that take this theory and throw it right out the window. their is no exact formula to success no matter how much you want this to work
I personally think this raises a good question: do some of these borderline 'elite' QBs only appear so because they've had decent receiving options? Ben has always had Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown. How do you identify an elite QB and separate him from the weapons he has?
great point.but my response to that is what has Wallace done since he left ben? Bust .what has holmes done since he left ben? Bust! Hines Ward was great but I believe Brown is also a product of Ben. When I have time I will develop a formula that determines the elite quarterback. I'm sure Ben will be in that class
Mike Wallace did in his first year with the Dolphins pretty close to what he did in his final year with the Steelers. Santonio had one monster year (in his contract year) and he reverted to form with maybe a slight down tick (and some injuries) after he left.

To me that screams that they just know when to part ways with an asset who's perceived value is higher than his talent level. I'll fully acknowledge that Big Ben is an above average QB EASILY, but if he qualifies as elite I think you and I just have different bars for elite.

That's not to say that your overall philosophy can't encompass this. For example, elite WRs produce regardless of situation, above average WRs produce with above average QBs, average WR talents need an elite QB.
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Re: Food for thought

Postby Csl312 » Mon May 26, 2014 4:40 pm

I have to agree with Tommy. IMO there cannot be a large number of 'elite' players at any position. It just doesn't make sense - elite means best of the best, that cant be the top 25 or 30% of starters at a position. If you just say the top 5 are elite for instance, that is still almost 16% of 32 starting QBs.

So if this is the way you want to go, try using some metrics to tier QBs and then analyze how WRs with each tier of QB do. Use some of the more WR proof stats (completion % without drops included, interception %, stuff like that) to grade out the QBs. This is going to be a small group of WRs though because there are a lot of restrictions you are putting on your theory. Not many 2+ round WRs turn into stat machines in the first place, much less those with bad QBs.

For the record I don't think any player has such talent that they are situation proof. And I also think you should include some measure of the offensive line which while not a fantasy startable position is way more important to fantasy football than most realize. A good QB can look TERRIBLE behind a really bad o-line.

PS - not to derail too much but do that many people outside pitt think that highly of Ben? I have always seen him as more Terry Bradshaw and less Tom Brady (not just because Bradshaw was also a Steeler either!).

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Re: Food for thought

Postby BwK » Mon May 26, 2014 4:59 pm

In my basis for developing a tier of elite I will start with the few currently that everyone can agree on. Manning.Brady.Brees.Rodgers. I have yet to se what they all have in common but I will develop something. Does each have an MVP of some sort? TD to int ratio. completion percentage. Then I will look at QBs like Ben and Eli and see if they hit any of those benchmarks.
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Re: Food for thought

Postby shady23 » Mon May 26, 2014 5:01 pm

The elite-elite WR prospects generally go Top-10 to teams that are Top-10 because they don't have QBs

Those teams then do not draft a WR early in round 2

WRs drafted in round 2 generally go to teams with established QBs

So the sample is terribly skewed because we do not know whether the guys drafted to good/great QBs could perform without an above-average guy behind center

Plus, it's completely irrelevant.

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Re: Food for thought

Postby TommyL31 » Mon May 26, 2014 7:40 pm

Csl312 wrote:I have to agree with Tommy. IMO there cannot be a large number of 'elite' players at any position. It just doesn't make sense - elite means best of the best, that cant be the top 25 or 30% of starters at a position. If you just say the top 5 are elite for instance, that is still almost 16% of 32 starting QBs.

So if this is the way you want to go, try using some metrics to tier QBs and then analyze how WRs with each tier of QB do. Use some of the more WR proof stats (completion % without drops included, interception %, stuff like that) to grade out the QBs. This is going to be a small group of WRs though because there are a lot of restrictions you are putting on your theory. Not many 2+ round WRs turn into stat machines in the first place, much less those with bad QBs.

For the record I don't think any player has such talent that they are situation proof. And I also think you should include some measure of the offensive line which while not a fantasy startable position is way more important to fantasy football than most realize. A good QB can look TERRIBLE behind a really bad o-line.

PS - not to derail too much but do that many people outside pitt think that highly of Ben? I have always seen him as more Terry Bradshaw and less Tom Brady (not just because Bradshaw was also a Steeler either!).
Regarding Ben, I don't think he's elite but the Steelers are the perfect team for him. He fits their system very well.
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Re: Food for thought

Postby Telperion » Tue May 27, 2014 2:28 pm

For the 2001-2011 drafts:

Drafted in the first round, 2nd round, 3rd round:

% of receivers providing at least 3 seasons of at minimum:

- WR1 numbers: 15%, 10%, 2%
- WR2 numbers: 30%, 13%, 2%
- WR3 numbers: 47%, 20%, 9%
- WR4 numbers: 49%, 25%, 15%
- WR5 numbers: 63%, 30%, 17%

To be read as, "13% of receivers drafted in the 2nd round produced WR2 numbers or better for a minimum of 3 seasons."

More analysis to come later, stay tuned.
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Re: Food for thought

Postby BwK » Tue May 27, 2014 6:03 pm

shady23 wrote:The elite-elite WR prospects generally go Top-10 to teams that are Top-10 because they don't have QBs

Those teams then do not draft a WR early in round 2

WRs drafted in round 2 generally go to teams with established QBs

So the sample is terribly skewed because we do not know whether the guys drafted to good/great QBs could perform without an above-average guy behind center

Plus, it's completely irrelevant.
You are way off. Julio Jones was taken in top 10 and he has Matt Ryan

and

You only have to go back a few weeks to see your theory is flawed. Lee went to the Jags. Mathews to the eagles. Those were revolving doors at QB the past few yrs. Hardly established yet we have high hopes for both of these wr taken in round two.
10 team non-ppr no FA pickups
QB- Ryan, Romo, Winston
RB-Foster, GIO, Mathews, L. Murray, JStew, Duke
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TE-Graham, Green
K-Bailey, Prater
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Re: Food for thought

Postby Telperion » Wed May 28, 2014 11:04 am

In case anyone is still interested, here's more data. Draft 2001 - 2011. (Even if nobody else is interested, I had a good time compiling the data). Sheet will be posted for everyone's use when I can stick it in my drop box and update this post. Full report (you may need Power Pivot to update certain tables)

https://www.dropbox.com/s/pdl285bh389t0 ... ublic.xlsx

Percentage of players with at least 3 seasons spent with WR1, WR2, etc numbers. Numbers are based on fantasy points per game average (WR1 = #'s 1-12, WR2 = #'s 13-24, etc). In some cases, injury-shortened seasons (Julio Jones) still were given WR1 numbers to be accurate.

First line example to be read "25% of recievers drafted in the top 10 put up WR1 numbers for at least 3 seasons."

First Round:

Top 10 Picks | Picks 11-21 | Picks 22-32

WR1: 25% | 0.0% | 12%
WR2: 38% | 20% | 30%
WR3: 44% | 50% | 48%
WR4: 50% | 50% | 48%

Takeaway: Receivers taken in the latter 3rd of the first round (Reggie Wayne, Roddy White) are more likely to put up big numbers than those in the middle 3rd. Latter 3rd had more goose eggs (Rashaun Woods, Craig Davis, Anthony Gonalez, Jon Baldwin), but also more upside. Santana Moss was the only real success in the middle first round.

Second Round:

Top 10 Picks | Picks 11-21 | Picks 22-32

WR1: 10% | 14% | 6%
WR2: 10% | 14% | 13%
WR3: 10% | 14% | 30%
WR4: 10% | 29% | 30%

Chad Johnson is the only early 2nd round success, the other 9 did nothing. Chris Chambers and Greg Jennings are the only mid 2nd round successes. Late 2nd round successes were Anquan Boldin and Vincent Jackson. Torrey Smith and Randall Cobb are newer on the scene, but Smith has never been above a WR3 and Cobb only has 2 seasons of WR2 numbers.

Third Round:

Top 10 Picks | Picks 11-21 | Picks 22-32

WR1: 0.0% | 4.% | 0%
WR2: 0.0% | 4.% | 0%
WR3: 16% | 11% | 0%
WR4: 33% | 15% | 7%

Early 3rd round is really only Nate Burleson. Middle 2nd round is really only Mike Wallace and James Jones. Late 3rd round success is Eric Decker, who doesn't have enough successful seasons under his belt yet.
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Re: Food for thought

Postby clarion contrarion » Thu May 29, 2014 3:07 am

elite qb is tossed around quite a bit but to me you need one of two things to be ELITE
1) win a super bowl or be an all timer
if you win a super that does not make you elite but if you don't it is really tough to be in that category .
I see people saying ben or eli are not elite and I would agree on a fantasy level but on a winning level they both have 2 rings
the list of elite qbs that have not won a super bowl is really short and there are non laying right now although the fantasy football boom skews that perception including guys like stafford,kaepernick, ryan , rg3 or rivers and even luck there are stat boys and there are winners
The qb snobs like jaws or gruden heap elite praise on guys like this long before they deserve it 4 of those guys are still young with far to go and rivers has not won a super bowl with at least as much overall talent as eli and likely ben ever had to work with . He was hamstring by his coaching situation but those chargers teams were at least as talented as either team that eli led to titles. That team that ben led to the 2005 title was not as talented as the niners teams the last 2 years ; ben was awful in the super bowl but in the 3 playoff games leading to it he was elite and in his 2nd year.

oh yeah my elite non champion list of the super bowl era
marino fouts tarkington and jim kelly ..... that is it.
some will argue warren moon but he was a prolific passer but was there ever really a season where you thought yeah warren moon was the biggest hurdle my team faces in winning a super bowl. There are other guys that have had elite seasons but none that come to mind that were more than fantasy studs rather than elite qbs . Often times having a qb is a deterrent to winning supper bowls because the team yields too much of its resources and identity to making that qb lord protector of the entire franchise instead of concentrating on making the team as a whole better.
Right now to me there are zero elite qbs that have not won a super bowl playing right now - although andrew luck is not far from it he is 2 years in check back in four or five years , he will either have a ring or some serious questions will have arisen .
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Re: Food for thought

Postby MR ROURKE » Thu May 29, 2014 5:31 am

Randy Moss made Culpepper look really good and Cullpepper sucked without him.
Chris Carter didn't have an elite QB as far as I recall off the top of my head.

Also, if you are going to change your draft strategy, then you really have to fine tune the discussion more and consider when the QB came. You are going to pass on a WR that doesn't have an elite QB. Calvin Johnson didn't have an elite QB coming out. AJG doesn't have an elite QB. Roddy White didn't have an elite QB (Vick sucked throwing the ball). Marvin Harrison didn't have an elite QB coming out. I could list a pretty long list of great WR's that didn't have a QB, but then their fortunes were changed by their team landing a QB some time in the future to help the WR.


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