Food for thought

[BwK]

Please give me facts. Thats why I started the thread.Getting opinions of why this doesnt make sense but very few examples. List some wr that have put together many good yrs with no Elite QB that were drafted outside the First Round. Stars.. Im looking for fantasy stars.

So far there is:
Boldin
S. Smith
Marshall
Welker
T.O.

[Shoreline Steamers]

For this to be a good barometer for talent, or NFL success, you're assuming the league's player assessment is spot-on. In other words, player "A" must be better than player "B" because he was drafted higher. I don't think they are infallible in player evaluation, or that I'm any better at it frankly. To believe that would be naive.

But the scope of this is pretty narrow, since you add the qualifier that "Said WR can't have an "elite" QB". I guess I don't see the point. There have been plenty of articles written that essentially state from a statistical perspective, a player's bust-rate is higher the later they were drafted. The NFL isn't perfect in player evaluations, but they're right more often than not.

Is the point "elite" QB's make everyone better, so go get one? Or, if you're taking a chance on a WR who was drafted outside of the NFL's first round make sure he plays with a stud QB? That's not much to think about for me.

I didn't include Packer WR's Nelson, Cobb, Jones for obvious QB reasons. But to play along here's a few names for consideration. Alshon Jeffery (2nd), Torrey Smith (2nd), Eric Decker (3rd), Antonio Brown (6th), Mike Wallace (3rd), DeSean Jackson (2nd), Steve Johnson (7th), Sidney Rice (2nd), Steve Smith - NYG (2nd). All fairly studly at some point with varying degrees of QB talent.

[BwK]

Again. with examples you are not being accurate. I said you could not have an elite QB. That eliminates Decker and Brown. I said no 1 yr wonders to this point that eliminates Jeffrey and Johnson 2 1k seasons in 6 yrs is hardly star worthy.Rice and S. Smith are laughable examples. Now two i triguing examples are Djax and torrey. Djax is borderline but I would agree. Three 1k in 6 seasons? He was the best WR in that class so chances are he was taken early in dynasty drafts. Torrey is a great example if you consider him a star. He is a rookie I wrote off but has produces wr 2-3 numbers for a few years. Back to jeffrey for a minute. Had I considered the QB theory Jeffrey would have been ranked up there in that class but a few others and projects went before him in some rankings (Hill, Jenkins,Quick)

[Shoreline Steamers]

Decker had 8 TD's the year before Manning showed up. Like I say, the examples are debatable.

I see what you're saying in that this is possibly shaping your thinking with regards to who you'll take a chance on at WR with players outside the NFL's first round. We all come up with our own ideas about how we'll draft and what is important in a prospect. I just tend to agree with the "no magic bullet" sentiment.

Your 2014 WR board might look something like this: Watkins (1), Evans (1), Beckham (1), Cooks (1), Benjamin (1), Richardson (2) (Russell Wilson?), Adams (2) (Rodgers), Latimer (2) (Manning), Moncrief (3) (Luck), Bryant (4) (Big Ben), Norwood (4) (R. Wilson?), Grant (5) (RGIII), Abbrederis (5) (Rodgers), Jones (6) (Stafford), Janis (7) (Rodgers), Gallon (7) (Brady),

[TommyL31]

Again. with examples you are not being accurate. I said you could not have an elite QB. That eliminates Decker and Brown. I said no 1 yr wonders to this point that eliminates Jeffrey and Johnson 2 1k seasons in 6 yrs is hardly star worthy.Rice and S. Smith are laughable examples. Now two i triguing examples are Djax and torrey. Djax is borderline but I would agree. Three 1k in 6 seasons? He was the best WR in that class so chances are he was taken early in dynasty drafts. Torrey is a great example if you consider him a star. He is a rookie I wrote off but has produces wr 2-3 numbers for a few years. Back to jeffrey for a minute. Had I considered the QB theory Jeffrey would have been ranked up there in that class but a few others and projects went before him in some rankings (Hill, Jenkins,Quick)

I feel like you're completely derailing your own thread by the way you're responding to people. People are providing counter examples to your theory and you're invalidating all of them crying for asking for fact when your original ask was actually for examples.

You request for 'facts' is also interesting in that people are giving you feedback about your theory and you didn't provide many facts including what is an 'elite QB'.

For what it's worth, I think you're trying to make a gray situation black and white.

Any player's performance is affected by both talent and situation.
Talent is fairly self explanatory and is an individual characteristic.

Situation includes both QB quality and other receiving options on the team.

Talent is more a continuum. There's obviously more than just elite and not elite. Maybe a decent definition of elite talent is someone who is QB proof. Is anyone actually QB proof though? What about 2012 Fitz with the bad O-Line and the Skelton/Lindley/Kolb train wreck? I think it is true that the more talented you are the less your situation matters.

Regarding situation, QB quality is easy enough. Whether you're elite or not it behooves you to have a better QB. Regarding other receiving options on a team I think it varies for every player but generally you want enough other options to keep coverage light on a receiver (to increase their productivity with the targets they get in terms of easier to catch and get yards after the catch) but you don't want so many options that you lose too many targets.

Now is it true that people stress talent over situation too much for 'non-elite' players? I think that's not unreasonable to assume. None of us are perfect but I also think drawing an arbitrary line like "drafted in the first round" is again, much too black or white. Some WR classes are better than others (maybe some years elite WRs fall into the second round) and some are shallower (maybe sometimes a WR drafted in the middle of the 1st isn't elite). Then there's also the fact that sometimes NFL teams get it wrong. Was AJ Jenkins more elite than Alshon Jeffery? I think it's pretty clear that he wasn't. Ignoring Alshon for a moment I think it's pretty clear at this point that AJ Jenkins was a horrible draft pick and had no business going in the 1st round. Most people (NFL scouts and fantasy football folks alike) didn't think he should have gone in the 1st and they were proven right. Returning to Alshon, maybe he's elite or maybe this was a fluke year but I would argue that, if he is elite, the reasons he dropped out of the 1st are pretty clear to most people. He looked elite as a sophomore and then gained weight as a junior and didn't have as good a year. Got disciplined, got his weight under control and voila, he looks elite again.

With all that said, I think it's a reasonable question to ask do we value 'talent' over 'situation' too much with non-elite WRs but I think some people are also gambling on the fact that situations can change but underlying talent (and upside) don't so maybe it's worth betting on the upside and hope the situation changes. I think both ways have an internal logic and maybe it's just a matter of adjusting how we weigh things.

[Telperion]

Here are all the numbers, analyze as needed.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/244 ... early.xlsx

First tab is all WR's drafted since 1999, remaining tabs are top 50 WR's by year as ranked by average fantasy points per game, along with draft round and pick.

Since 1999 there have been 10 receivers drafted in the top 6 picks. Only Peter Warrick, Charles Rogers, and Braylon Edwards bombed out, the others went on to be stars at least for 3-5 high performing years. Justin Blackmon I consider a success since his issues were not on the field. 70% stud rate is not bad.

Of all 1st rounders, and there were 58, about 19 went on to have superstar years or at least WR2-3 range. That's roughly 33% success. Clearly the success rate of 1st rounders is not even that high.

As far as non 1st rounders that have had success over the past 4 years, some names are Josh Gordon, Denarius Moore, Randall Cobb, TY Hilton, Golden Tate, Eric Decker, Mike Williams, Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, Jordy Nelson, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Stevie Johnson, Steve Smith, James Jones, Greg Jennings, Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Lloyd.

There's a temptation to look at those receivers and pick out Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning, Big Ben, Vick/Foles, Brees, Rivers, Brady, etc. But hold on. Let's take a look at who else those quarterbacks threw to that didn't succeed:

Josh Boyce, Charles Johnson, Kevin Dorsey, Nick Toon, Danny Coale (Romo), Jeremy Ebert, Dwayne Harris, Taylor Price, Kerry Meier, Manuel Johnson, Matt Slater, Brett Swain, Adrian Arrington, Craig Davis, David Clowney, Roy Hall, Legedu Naanee, Chad Jackson, Cory Rodgers, the list goes on and on.

When you narrow the list down to rounds 2 and 3, the names get better but still, there's no rhyme or reason. The closest you can get to a predictor of success is for rounds 2 and 3, since the success rate of elite-quarterbacked receivers does appear to be better, but you'll have to filter for yourself.

If you really want to, you can assign a quarterback to all of the receivers in the draft for each year for the past 15 years, then run a regression analysis or multi-factor ANOVA or a chi-square or something. I'm sure there's some interesting information to be had, but the amount of work required to set up the data is more than I feel like doing, but knock yourself out.

[BwK]

Here are all the numbers, analyze as needed.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/244 ... early.xlsx

First tab is all WR's drafted since 1999, remaining tabs are top 50 WR's by year as ranked by average fantasy points per game, along with draft round and pick.

Since 1999 there have been 10 receivers drafted in the top 6 picks. Only Peter Warrick, Charles Rogers, and Braylon Edwards bombed out, the others went on to be stars at least for 3-5 high performing years. Justin Blackmon I consider a success since his issues were not on the field. 70% stud rate is not bad.

Of all 1st rounders, and there were 58, about 19 went on to have superstar years or at least WR2-3 range. That's roughly 33% success. Clearly the success rate of 1st rounders is not even that high.

As far as non 1st rounders that have had success over the past 4 years, some names are Josh Gordon, Denarius Moore, Randall Cobb, TY Hilton, Golden Tate, Eric Decker, Mike Williams, Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, Jordy Nelson, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Stevie Johnson, Steve Smith, James Jones, Greg Jennings, Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Lloyd.

There's a temptation to look at those receivers and pick out Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning, Big Ben, Vick/Foles, Brees, Rivers, Brady, etc. But hold on. Let's take a look at who else those quarterbacks threw to that didn't succeed:

Josh Boyce, Charles Johnson, Kevin Dorsey, Nick Toon, Danny Coale (Romo), Jeremy Ebert, Dwayne Harris, Taylor Price, Kerry Meier, Manuel Johnson, Matt Slater, Brett Swain, Adrian Arrington, Craig Davis, David Clowney, Roy Hall, Legedu Naanee, Chad Jackson, Cory Rodgers, the list goes on and on.

When you narrow the list down to rounds 2 and 3, the names get better but still, there's no rhyme or reason. The closest you can get to a predictor of success is for rounds 2 and 3, since the success rate of elite-quarterbacked receivers does appear to be better, but you'll have to filter for yourself.

If you really want to, you can assign a quarterback to all of the receivers in the draft for each year for the past 15 years, then run a regression analysis or multi-factor ANOVA or a chi-square or something. I'm sure there's some interesting information to be had, but the amount of work required to set up the data is more than I feel like doing, but knock yourself out.

Brilliant! Not quite as much info as I expected but amazing none the less. You're a gentleman and a scholar

[bjorklunde]

I did not read all of the thread, so forgive me if this was already brought up, but:

Another factor not being considered is undervalued players at a professional level; players that rightly should have been drafted in the first round but weren't. Guys like Keenan Allen, Alshon Jeffrey, Mike Williams, etc. all had first round grades, but whether it was injury, off-the-field issues, perceived laziness, etc. these guys fell out of the first. This skews your theory even more, as they all produced at a high level with a less-than-elite QB.

Others that could fall into this category: Justin Hunter & Marquis Lee off the top of my head.

[knotts4372]

Again. with examples you are not being accurate. I said you could not have an elite QB. That eliminates Decker and Brown. I said no 1 yr wonders to this point that eliminates Jeffrey and Johnson 2 1k seasons in 6 yrs is hardly star worthy.Rice and S. Smith are laughable examples. Now two i triguing examples are Djax and torrey. Djax is borderline but I would agree. Three 1k in 6 seasons? He was the best WR in that class so chances are he was taken early in dynasty drafts. Torrey is a great example if you consider him a star. He is a rookie I wrote off but has produces wr 2-3 numbers for a few years. Back to jeffrey for a minute. Had I considered the QB theory Jeffrey would have been ranked up there in that class but a few others and projects went before him in some rankings (Hill, Jenkins,Quick)

I feel like you're completely derailing your own thread by the way you're responding to people. People are providing counter examples to your theory and you're invalidating all of them crying for asking for fact when your original ask was actually for examples.

You request for 'facts' is also interesting in that people are giving you feedback about your theory and you didn't provide many facts including what is an 'elite QB'.

For what it's worth, I think you're trying to make a gray situation black and white.

Any player's performance is affected by both talent and situation.
Talent is fairly self explanatory and is an individual characteristic.

Situation includes both QB quality and other receiving options on the team.

Talent is more a continuum. There's obviously more than just elite and not elite. Maybe a decent definition of elite talent is someone who is QB proof. Is anyone actually QB proof though? What about 2012 Fitz with the bad O-Line and the Skelton/Lindley/Kolb train wreck? I think it is true that the more talented you are the less your situation matters.

Regarding situation, QB quality is easy enough. Whether you're elite or not it behooves you to have a better QB. Regarding other receiving options on a team I think it varies for every player but generally you want enough other options to keep coverage light on a receiver (to increase their productivity with the targets they get in terms of easier to catch and get yards after the catch) but you don't want so many options that you lose too many targets.

Now is it true that people stress talent over situation too much for 'non-elite' players? I think that's not unreasonable to assume. None of us are perfect but I also think drawing an arbitrary line like "drafted in the first round" is again, much too black or white. Some WR classes are better than others (maybe some years elite WRs fall into the second round) and some are shallower (maybe sometimes a WR drafted in the middle of the 1st isn't elite). Then there's also the fact that sometimes NFL teams get it wrong. Was AJ Jenkins more elite than Alshon Jeffery? I think it's pretty clear that he wasn't. Ignoring Alshon for a moment I think it's pretty clear at this point that AJ Jenkins was a horrible draft pick and had no business going in the 1st round. Most people (NFL scouts and fantasy football folks alike) didn't think he should have gone in the 1st and they were proven right. Returning to Alshon, maybe he's elite or maybe this was a fluke year but I would argue that, if he is elite, the reasons he dropped out of the 1st are pretty clear to most people. He looked elite as a sophomore and then gained weight as a junior and didn't have as good a year. Got disciplined, got his weight under control and voila, he looks elite again.

With all that said, I think it's a reasonable question to ask do we value 'talent' over 'situation' too much with non-elite WRs but I think some people are also gambling on the fact that situations can change but underlying talent (and upside) don't so maybe it's worth betting on the upside and hope the situation changes. I think both ways have an internal logic and maybe it's just a matter of adjusting how we weigh things.

exactly why I gave up responding a while back because hes just gonna find some menial thing wrong with every person I, and others, suggested. their have been no less than 10 examples that blow this theory up completely so its pretty much a moot point anymore

[Telperion]

OP, if you can get me a full data set of WR & QB statistics for as far back as you can find (1994 forward at least), including team names, and also team offensive (pass & run) rank, by year, in flat table layout, I'll try to run some regression analysis when I get time. I can work and join the tables, I just need the raw data.

[BwK]

I did not read all of the thread, so forgive me if this was already brought up, but:

Another factor not being considered is undervalued players at a professional level; players that rightly should have been drafted in the first round but weren't. Guys like Keenan Allen, Alshon Jeffrey, Mike Williams, etc. all had first round grades, but whether it was injury, off-the-field issues, perceived laziness, etc. these guys fell out of the first. This skews your theory even more, as they all produced at a high level with a less-than-elite QB.

Others that could fall into this category: Justin Hunter & Marquis Lee off the top of my head.

You are exactly correct. These players that dropped because of percieved off field concerns that were successfull will be placed in a bracket on thier own for comparison. However, I need more data than one or two seasons to develop a formula.

Knotts I am sorry you are upset but your examples were terrible.

[clarion contrarion]

My point is that history tells us these things. It moves guys like justin hunter down and keenan allen up in drafts. In fantasy drafts we typically rank players based on percieved talent but is that truly why WRs in the second rnd are successfull? Perhaps a small few but according to this theory It seems to me if you are selecting a WR taken outside the first rnd of the NFL draft he better have a stud QB or chances of being a stud are next to zero.

Chad Johnson was good only when Palmer was elite.(Before the injury palmer was considered top 5 in the league.) T.O. had young and rice but is an exception to this rule. Thats what I am looking for the exceptions so then we can see what they all have in common.[/quote]


palmer was elite 1 season got blown up in the playoffs and has been a chucker ever since
johnson was a top ten wr for several years including 2 before palmer ever played a down

[knotts4372]

im not upset at all lol. everyone sees you just wanna come off as some holier than thou guy and you wanna argue otherwise smart examples and say they don't fit. to say eli and big ben are elite qb is a joke, so Antonio brown and victor cruz are great examples. especially cruz cause hes been doing well for like 3 years now. chad Johnson also someone mentioned and the comeback is carson palmer elite. your comebacks are quite funny tho. their has been no fewer than 10 guts that take this theory and throw it right out the window. their is no exact formula to success no matter how much you want this to work

[Pac_Eddy]

BwK, I think you're onto something. I've always tended to avoid non-first round WRs that didn't land with a very good or elite QB. I never had any stats or facts to back it up, I just noticed that those WRs have a terrible hit rate. I even do that for first round WRs if they end up in Oakland and a couple other downtrodden teams.

This year I passed on the Jacksonville WRs to take Davante Adams as he's got Aaron Rodgers. It was an easy decision in my mind.

[TommyL31]

im not upset at all lol. everyone sees you just wanna come off as some holier than thou guy and you wanna argue otherwise smart examples and say they don't fit. to say eli and big ben are elite qb is a joke, so Antonio brown and victor cruz are great examples. especially cruz cause hes been doing well for like 3 years now. chad Johnson also someone mentioned and the comeback is carson palmer elite. your comebacks are quite funny tho. their has been no fewer than 10 guts that take this theory and throw it right out the window. their is no exact formula to success no matter how much you want this to work

I personally think this raises a good question: do some of these borderline 'elite' QBs only appear so because they've had decent receiving options? Ben has always had Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown. How do you identify an elite QB and separate him from the weapons he has?