How is Calvin Johnson falling so far in start-ups?

[zounder]

I have been following a lot of traditional-scoring start-ups and mocks and I am completely flabbergasted every time I see Megatron fall out of the top 2 or 3.

I anticipate people will point to his age. So here's my response: He's not old! He's got at LEAST 3 years left of elite production, if not more. Even in dynasty, I (along with many others) believe you shouldn't go beyond a 3 or 5 year window when valuing players. So there's absolutely no issue here.

The other argument I anticipate is "It isn't so much Megatron falling as other players rising." Let's look at a list of players going ahead of him:

McCoy/Charles- RBs are too volatile year-to-year and even considering Megatron's age, I don't think anybody would dispute that the shelf life for these two RBs are even shorter.

Julio- Coming off a relatively severe injury. Will likely be fine, but why take the risk when you can get a guy of equal or greater production for plenty of years?

AJ Green- Here's the one guy I could make a legitimate argument to go ahead of Calvin. No reason to believe he can't put up close to Calvin-like numbers through his career, so why not take the younger guy all things equal. If I picked 1.01, I'd have to think hard about who to take.

Dez Bryant- Like Julio, comes with a small risk of behavioral issues/volatile personality. Again, not likely to be an issue, but why take the risk?

Josh Gordon- By far the biggest offender and makes me groan the loudest whenever I see him go ahead of ANY of the players listed above. You all realize this guy in one suspension away from missing an entire season, right? This falls under the same category as Julio/Dez except the risk is MUCH greater. As the old saying goes "You can't win your league with your first pick, but you can certainly lose it."

EDIT: Demaryius Thomas- Forgot to list him. We need to see what happens to him after Peyton leaves for me to take him ahead of Calvin. I think he's a great WR but give me the guy who has proven year in and year out that he puts up elite numbers in a worse situation.

So in conclusion: Conceding AJ Green, and even if you're one of those people that believe in grabbing RBs early over proven elite WRs with plenty of years left, that leaves him at 4th at the absolute lowest. Then how come I see him routinely going 5th-7th? Makes me want to join a bunch of dynasty start-ups this year to grab Calvin Johnson for a bunch of my teams.

[tackling dummies]

Get your groan on because I would only take Gordon ahead of Calvin. At 22, he's years away from his peak and producing in that dumpster fire is enough for me.

[zounder]

Get your groan on because I would only take Gordon ahead of Calvin. At 22, he's years away from his peak and producing in that dumpster fire is enough for me.

I don't dispute that, But why take the risk at all? No one has ever won their league by taking a huge risk in the first round of a start-up.

[italian_stallion21]

Here's why:

Calvin Johnson - per you, say 3 years at 22 PPG
AJG - say not as good, but 21 PPG for 8 years since he's 5 years younger. Well I'd rather have AJ here.
Gordon - talent is as much or more, but lets say 20 PPG for 11 years since he's 3 years younger than AJ. He's also not one strike from a year long.
Dez - 19 PPG for 8 years, not as talented but still pretty studly.
Julio - 21 PPG, I'm just not a fan of his but the same age situation still applies, although more injury risk.

Obviously I'm assuming all the WR will fall off their talent cliff at the exact same age, but it's pretty obvious why other guys would be selected ahead of Mega. Sure, you might not get the same production, but it's pretty damn close and the age difference is more than enough to sway me. I don't understand the RB's going before him though.

[zounder]

Here's why:

Calvin Johnson - per you, say 3 years at 22 PPG
AJG - say not as good, but 21 PPG for 8 years since he's 5 years younger. Well I'd rather have AJ here.
Gordon - talent is as much or more, but lets say 20 PPG for 11 years since he's 3 years younger than AJ. He's also not one strike from a year long.
Dez - 19 PPG for 8 years, not as talented but still pretty studly.
Julio - 21 PPG, I'm just not a fan of his but the same age situation still applies, although more injury risk.

Obviously I'm assuming all the WR will fall off their talent cliff at the exact same age, but it's pretty obvious why other guys would be selected ahead of Mega. Sure, you might not get the same production, but it's pretty damn close and the age difference is more than enough to sway me. I don't understand the RB's going before him though.

You and I have differing opinions on dynasty windows, it appears. I would take -projected- 22 PPG for 3 years over -projected- 21 PPG for 8 years, especially when that comes with risk, any day of the week. This is because projecting 8 years in advance is so difficult, especially when the comparison is one of the best WRs ever.

If I was confident in projecting 8 years in advance, then sure, I'd grab AJ/Julio/Dez/DT without question over CJ. But I'm not that confident.

[moishetreats]

Here's why:

Calvin Johnson - per you, say 3 years at 22 PPG
AJG - say not as good, but 21 PPG for 8 years since he's 5 years younger. Well I'd rather have AJ here.
Gordon - talent is as much or more, but lets say 20 PPG for 11 years since he's 3 years younger than AJ. He's also not one strike from a year long.
Dez - 19 PPG for 8 years, not as talented but still pretty studly.
Julio - 21 PPG, I'm just not a fan of his but the same age situation still applies, although more injury risk.

Obviously I'm assuming all the WR will fall off their talent cliff at the exact same age, but it's pretty obvious why other guys would be selected ahead of Mega. Sure, you might not get the same production, but it's pretty damn close and the age difference is more than enough to sway me. I don't understand the RB's going before him though.

Wow. That's a LOT of bold predictions. Calvin: elite, in-the-bank (relatively -- no one knows the future for sure) production. AJG: similar. Everyone else has major question marks. I don't mind if you want to gamble on one of those other guys ahead of Calvin, but you write as if their future production is a foregone conclusion. It's only Calvin and AJG that really have given that kind of production guarantee. They're my #1 and #2, and it's not close for me.

[dm1129]

I anticipate people will point to his age. So here's my response: He's not old! He's got at LEAST 3 years left of elite production, if not more. Even in dynasty, I (along with many others) believe you shouldn't go beyond a 3 or 5 year window when valuing players. So there's absolutely no issue here.

It's true that this view is widely held, however I could not disagree more. While I agree that none of us know with any certainty what the situation will be with any player 3 years from now, the truth is none of us know what next year will bring for any player. A player could suffer serious or career threatening injury at anytime. Ironically, one of the only certainties that owners do have to evaluate players is age and historical data of fantasy production by position plotted by age. In three years, it is a CERTAINTY that Josh Gordon will be 25 years old and Calvin Johnson will be 31. Unless an owner does not plan to keep a team past three years, I simply do not see the logic of ignoring a critical certainty in evaluating players.

[italian_stallion21]

I didn't say they were predictions, I was just giving an example to answer the posed question.

Zounder - you say you'd take 3 years of 22 PPG over 8 of 21 PPG because it's hard to project? How do you know Calvin has 3 years left? Knee bothered him all year, even cost him a game here and there. Who's to say it doesn't become a bigger issue and he only has 1 year of elite production? 1 PPG is NOTHING when longetivity is involved, and I think we can all agree that CJ will be done playing before the others will.

Moisehetreats - Literally every single one of those guys has some sort of question mark. Every one of them. AJG's is probably the safest, but they all do.
Calvin - age, lingering knee issue.
AJG - hurt his knee in training camp, but other than that as safe as can be. Advanced metrics say otherwise but that's another topic.
Gordon - The most talented WR in the game, BUT comes with the suspension risk obviously.
Dez - lingering back issues, plays for the Cowboys
Julio - obviously the foot issue, 2 breaks to the same bone, scares me away.

[zounder]

Zounder - you say you'd take 3 years of 22 PPG over 8 of 21 PPG because it's hard to project? How do you know Calvin has 3 years left? Knee bothered him all year, even cost him a game here and there. Who's to say it doesn't become a bigger issue and he only has 1 year of elite production? 1 PPG is NOTHING when longetivity is involved, and I think we can all agree that CJ will be done playing before the others will.

I am significantly more confident in the statement "Calvin has at least 3 years of elite production left'" than "*insert player name* has at least 8 years of elite production left." And that goes for any player you want to plug in there. You're right that projecting even 3 years in advance is difficult, but projecting 8 years is exponentially more difficult.

[italian_stallion21]

Of course, and I'm more confident in saying AJ Green or Dez or Gordon have 3 years of elite production than I do Calvin.

[auggiedoggies]

This is interesting. Personally, I still rank Megatron as #1, simply because I believe he has the absolute highest floor and the highest ceiling. He's the most physically gifted wr in the game, I think he's an AP level freak of nature.

However, I can EASILY see the argument for Dez/Julio/Gordon/DT/AJG due to the fact that they are a good bit younger and damn near just as talented

[MEuRaH]

Not even a month ago, when everyone was talking the top 6 WRs, I put Calvin at #5. I took a ton of sh*t for it.

Now it's happening in start-ups.

I wasn't too far off.

[Spinkso]

Josh Gordon- By far the biggest offender and makes me groan the loudest whenever I see him go ahead of ANY of the players listed above. You all realize this guy in one suspension away from missing an entire season, right? This falls under the same category as Julio/Dez except the risk is MUCH greater. As the old saying goes "You can't win your league with your first pick, but you can certainly lose it."

You do realize that he's a few months away from no longer being in stage two of the offender program, right? You're not on stage 1 or 2 for forever. As far as same category as Dez/Julio... Gordon did more than either have and did it in 14 games. No player other than Calvin has that kind of impact. Not saying I agree with him being ahead of whoever, but it's not outlandish at all.

[voiceofunreason]

I didn't say they were predictions, I was just giving an example to answer the posed question.

Zounder - you say you'd take 3 years of 22 PPG over 8 of 21 PPG because it's hard to project? How do you know Calvin has 3 years left? Knee bothered him all year, even cost him a game here and there. Who's to say it doesn't become a bigger issue and he only has 1 year of elite production? 1 PPG is NOTHING when longetivity is involved, and I think we can all agree that CJ will be done playing before the others will.

Moisehetreats - Literally every single one of those guys has some sort of question mark. Every one of them. AJG's is probably the safest, but they all do.
Calvin - age, lingering knee issue.
AJG - hurt his knee in training camp, but other than that as safe as can be. Advanced metrics say otherwise but that's another topic.
Gordon - The most talented WR in the game, BUT comes with the suspension risk obviously.
Dez - lingering back issues, plays for the Cowboys
Julio - obviously the foot issue, 2 breaks to the same bone, scares me away.

Gordon is more talented than Calvin Johnson? No.

[italian_stallion21]

Gordon is more talented than Calvin Johnson? No.

At this exact moment, why not? Did more with less, doesn't have nagging injuries to worry about either.