Trading Out Of The Rookie Draft, Every Year, & On Purpose

[MEuRaH]

So I came up with this idea when I joined my first dynasty league. The idea was that only about half of your 1st & 2nd round picks ever pan out to reliable starters, and about 10-20% of your 3rd and 4th rounders ever pan out to starters.

Those who do make the starting rotation, often take 2-3 years to get to that level (sans RBs).

So I came to the conclusion that it's better to trade away your draft picks for players you KNOW, than it is for players you don't know. I traded away late round picks for David Wilson & Justin Blackmon. I think I'll have a better chance of these guys breaking out than a rookie.

I just used my 1st rounder to HELP acquire Aaron Rodgers.

I know what I'm getting into with these guys. I don't need to wonder or hang onto them. There's no "overhead" to worry about, either. If Wilson produces, he'll be on my team for years. If he doesn't, he'll be gone by mid-season. No valuable space will be used up.

I'm deathly afraid of drafting rookies. I was bonkers over Mark Ingram when he came out. I loved Kenny Britt. Remember Cadillac Williams & Ronnie Brown? I thought they were studs! Mike Williams (DET)? I could go on.

I'm glad I never invested any picks into these guys, let alone the several years of waiting for them to break out, only to realize that I was waiting for failure.

I live by: "The evil that you know, is better than the evil that you don't know."

Thoughts?

[KMA]

I think it depends on your preference and ability to scout talent. The guys who drafted AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, and Adrian Peterson are probably glad they drafted.

[Mike_Blahnik]

Interesting approach, would be interested to see it implemented year over year as a team building philosophy.

Do you mainly target older veterans or second-third year players? Acquiring David Wilson last offseason may have been more expensive than simply drafting him his rookie year, and it was obviously no less risky.

[MEuRaH]

I think it depends on your preference and ability to scout talent. The guys who drafted AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, and Adrian Peterson are probably glad they drafted.

Take Calvin Johnson: 1st year in the league was good, but not good enough to start.

His second year, he did better, and became a starter on all fantasy teams.

In his 3rd year, he took a dive. He actually did worse than year #2... a lot worse. He could be had for a first rounder at this point.

In his 4th year, he's starting to dominate and not look back this time.

So if I traded away my first round pick in 2007, I could have traded him for a full-time starter for 3 years (2007, 2008, 2009) while allowing CJ to develop on someone else's team. Theoretically, I then could have traded my 2010 pick for CJ, and guaranteed a stud on my team for years.

Here's the 2007 rookie draft for the experts:

1.01 1. FantasyFootballXtreme.com Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
1.02 2. Gridiron Grumblings Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB
1.03 3. FantasyFootballWhiz.com Johnson, Calvin DET WR
1.04 4. FantasyFootballStarters.com Jackson, Brandon GBP RB
1.05 5. Footballguys_Smith Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR
1.06 6. HuddleGeeks.com Ginn Jr., Ted MIA WR
1.07 7. FantasyTailgate.com Quinn, Brady CLE QB
1.08 8. TheFootballExpert.com Meachem, Robert NOS WR
1.09 9. FantasySharks.com Russell, JaMarcus OAK QB
1.10 10. RotoWorld.com Bush, Michael OAK RB
1.11 11. FantasyFootballCafe.com Henry, Chris TEN RB
1.12 12. FFToolbox.com Wolfe, Garrett CHI RB

I see 0 qualms with trading away my 1.04 or later pick for ANY player in the league.

With the exception of RBs (who can start and produce right away), I'd rather trade away my first rounders for guys I know will produce.

[MEuRaH]

Do you mainly target older veterans or second-third year players? Acquiring David Wilson last offseason may have been more expensive than simply drafting him his rookie year, and it was obviously no less risky.

In my opinion, it's best to target players that fit your team (win now vs build for future), and preferably ones who aren't a "sell high", usually TEs, QBs & WRs (they have better staying power year after year).

David Wilson never really did prove his worth. I'm wearing of trading for RBs, unless they are consistent performers year after year. I usually try to stay away from running backs as my main target. I like to guys like Lattimore, Ball, & Murray as throw-ins to other trades. The more "possible starters" I can acquire, the better. I only need 1-2 of these guys to take the reigns every year. I picked up Khiry Robinson from waivers. RBs are a dime a dozen.

[Water Buffalo]

In his 3rd year, he took a dive. He actually did worse than year #2... a lot worse. He could be had for a first rounder at this point.

Yeah, no.

[DonBrazi]

I tend to agree with the idea, in principle. Seems to me like most guys over-value picks come draft time. You're basically advocating that you take advantage of that mentality (whether it be at draft time or not). Naturally (especially in hindsight), I don't like you're examples (of buying Wilson and Blackmon), but I agree with the concept.

I do the same (but opposite) thing in terms of 'known' players. Once they're the best, sell em. There's no real sustainability in fantasy (outside of Calvin's 3 year stranglehold). Right now, for example, Shady is the #1 RB on most boards. But there's a very high probability that he'll have a worse 2014 than 2013 and his value will drop (if not just dip). I'd take advantage of that now, if I could.

Combined, I think a strategy of selling high and buying low is the way to maintain a dynasty rather than the cycle of having a few years' window for a championship and having to rebuild.

[MEuRaH]

In his 3rd year, he took a dive. He actually did worse than year #2... a lot worse. He could be had for a first rounder at this point.

Yeah, no.

Really?

Another player who had similar hype early in his career (granted, it was during his first season) and similar production in his first 3 years would be Victor Cruz. He was a guy you couldn't simply give up for a 1st round pick for. It would cost you multiple picks. He had a down year last year. Do you NOT think you could pick him up right now for a 1st rounder?

You're not looking at the history of Calvin, only at his current value. I just did a search on these forums about trading away Calvin or trading for him. People are discussing if "Ocho & Moreno" is fair for Calvin. Some say yes, some say no.

Or this one:

Team A gives Addai and Sims-Walker; Team B gives Calvin and Henne.

Or this one, that most people like:

I give up:
Stafford, Moreno, Calvin

I get:
Rivers, DeAngelo, Boldin

If you search Calvin Johnson in 2010 on these very forums, he's being bought and sold for much less than a 1st rounder.

Don't be so naive.

[gateway400]

It is funny to read this post because this is the philosophy I have used. I would rather use my draft picks to acquire proven players or players you can see are about to break out. I thought I was the only one. . I did some research on this subject and found it to be less than 50% hit rate for the first two rounds. I have traded for AJ, Julio, Percy, Randall Cobb...all using some combination with draft picks. Most will scoff at this method. I on the other hand feel it makes me more competitive.

[MEuRaH]

It is funny to read this post because this is the philosophy I have used. I would rather use my draft picks to acquire proven players or players you can see are about to break out. I thought I was the only one. . I did some research on this subject and found it to be less than 50% hit rate for the first two rounds. I have traded for AJ, Julio, Percy, Randall Cobb...all using some combination with draft picks. Most will scoff at this method. I on the other hand feel it makes me more competitive.

I thought when I entered dynasty that this was the best way to go.

Now that I've started to move players around, I'm nearly convinced it's the best.

Hell, here's a thread from 2010 about Calvin vs Colston..... and most prefer COLSTON!: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=14255&hilit=calvin

[MARKinMI]

I don't ever remember a time when Calvin could be had for a 1st round pick. I had the 2nd pick in that rookie draft after Calvin was taken 1st as he was in the majority of drafts that year. I spent the next four or five years trying to get Calvin offering AP who I drafted 2nd that year and a 1st rounder every year and no dice. Also I want to see the league where you can get Blackmon for a late round rookie pick. I've been trying to buy that guy everywhere for the last year and 1st round picks arent shaking him loose. I can't imagine a knowledgable owner dealing him for a late round rookie pick.

Trading rookie picks for proven players isnt a new or rare strategy. I know lots of owners who do this and I even have teams where I've never drafted a player in the first round. There's no hard and fast rule and once you think there is one you limit yourself to possibilities. I tend to trade my premium picks too but I will always jump back in a draft if i have a shot at a guy im targeting. I think the key is to not just draft a guy because it's your turn in the round. If you don't love the players available at that pick then trade out or down.

[BuckeyeNation]

If done properly, I like this method a lot. You just have to be careful about WHO you are trading the picks away for. You can't be trading your picks away for 30 yo RBs and WRs that are on a steep decline. It is ok to trade them for players that are productive, but have a soft trade market. As long as they are fairly young, you won't have to replace them every year or 2. Plus, if you are able to get solid value out of trading your picks away during the previous season (IE trading 2014 picks in 2013), you are theoretically putting your team at an advantage taking the value of the picks and adding them to your roster now. This can help you make championship runs year after year.

The downside of this is you often end up with players that aren't highly sought after. Therefore you may be less likely to make other trades and turn your roster over when you feel the time is right. If you're ok with holding highly productive players that are difficult to trade away, then there's no problem with this strategy. After all, points win games and championships, not the "hottest" names on your roster.

[nation31]

I trade out every single year, ever since Crabtree and Arrelious Benn killed me with my first round draft picks years ago.

[jlasaf2007]

I tend to agree with the idea, in principle. Seems to me like most guys over-value picks come draft time. You're basically advocating that you take advantage of that mentality (whether it be at draft time or not). Naturally (especially in hindsight), I don't like you're examples (of buying Wilson and Blackmon), but I agree with the concept.

I do the same (but opposite) thing in terms of 'known' players. Once they're the best, sell em. There's no real sustainability in fantasy (outside of Calvin's 3 year stranglehold). Right now, for example, Shady is the #1 RB on most boards. But there's a very high probability that he'll have a worse 2014 than 2013 and his value will drop (if not just dip). I'd take advantage of that now, if I could.

Combined, I think a strategy of selling high and buying low is the way to maintain a dynasty rather than the cycle of having a few years' window for a championship and having to rebuild.

+1

It also takes a lot of luck to make it through a season without getting hit by the injury bug. A paper champion with stud starter and no depth can crumble very quickly with injuries to a couple key players.

[ericanadian]

I don't see how trading late round picks nets you much of anything. No one in their right mind is trading Wilson or Blackmon for a 3rd (especially as I play in a 16 team league), much less a 4th... You might be able to swing some old guy like Fred Jackson or Steve Smith (but even that I doubt)