MJD

[top9play23]

Curious on thoughts for MJD this season. Does he return to fantasy relevance? What are realistic projections? MJD owners, if looking to deal him what would fair value be? I think he could return to top 10 but would also deal Jim if return was appealing.

[chadtriumph]

Even before the Lisfranc injury, MJD was playing with a bone-on-bone knee. Add that to turning 28, and rushing the ball for already 1,570 times (he doesn't exactly run away from contact either).. and I'd have to say that there is little upside left in his career. Sure, he could always put up another fantasy relevant year or two, but I wouldn't want to invest much him him at the moment.

[tripleaaaron]

Curious on thoughts for MJD this season. Does he return to fantasy relevance? What are realistic projections? MJD owners, if looking to deal him what would fair value be? I think he could return to top 10 but would also deal Jim if return was appealing.

8 team league makes things a bit different as he cannot be expected to be more than a High end RB3 or low end 2. I would strongly consider packaging him and one of your WRs for an upgrade at the WR position as you are a bit light there for an 8 teamer. May be hard to do but someone may bite on his track record.

[kmbryant09]

For what it's worth, I just sent him packing with Garcon for Roddy White/2014 1st/Joseph Randle.

Leaves my RB 2 spot a little vulnerable, but I don't have much confidence in MJD putting up a 16-game, productive season. Even if he does, his value will continue to decline because of his age. If you can get solid value in return for him, I'd jump on it while you can.

[top9play23]

Thanks for responses guys. Agree his better days are behind him. Interesting trade with MJD and Garçon for Roddy etc.... I have Garçon and hoping he explodes. I

[Mangelo]

Even before the Lisfranc injury, MJD was playing with a bone-on-bone knee. Add that to turning 28, and rushing the ball for already 1,570 times (he doesn't exactly run away from contact either).. and I'd have to say that there is little upside left in his career. Sure, he could always put up another fantasy relevant year or two, but I wouldn't want to invest much him him at the moment.

Was it ever confirmed he got microfracture for the bone-on-bone? He did lead the league in rushing with the condition. I'm in redraft more right now and I think he might be a value as a cheap rb1. Dynasty wise he's already crossed the threshold where people will never pay much for him because of his age, but he definitely has some redraft relevance to him.

[lenny]

Don't forget The Jags have a new OC this year and plan to move to a zone blocking scheme. That worries me after watching DMC struggle with the zone scheme last year. With the injuries history, scheme change and age I'd be selling at this point if I could.

[shady23]

Now is a great time to buy. Too many people over thinking this thing.

[Chris_R]

Now is a great time to buy. Too many people over thinking this thing.

What are some of the reasons you want to buy? It's not like there is a very compelling to case to make for him, and if it's a great time to buy what pick value would you put on him?

[henry1jg]

I snagged Forsett off of waivers. You just never know.

[ccj]

Now is a great time to buy. Too many people over thinking this thing.

What are some of the reasons you want to buy? It's not like there is a very compelling to case to make for him, and if it's a great time to buy what pick value would you put on him?

He's a three down back which is rare. He's had three top five finishes which is pretty elite (three out of the last five years). He's never had injuries that kept him off the field prior to last year (missed three games in the first six seasons). Somewhat low mileage given his first three years behind Fred Taylor (under 2000 total touches rush/rec, not often in playoffs).

Let's say he puts up another MJD like season this year, say top 8 RB. Then Jax lets him go. We've already seen in his career that he can operate as an elite change of pace/3rd down back... if he went somewhere favorable next year it's not inconceivable he could wind down his career as a Sproles'esque type guy.

Also, he is cognizant of fantasy football.

I wouldn't buy him for a rebuilding team unless he was being thrown away (which is pretty close to the case right now). I'd say he's a fair buy around 1.06. Personally I'd only trade him for Gio Bernard in this class.

This touches on a topic I've been thinking about awhile, but what is one season of top x performance worth to you? Is a single top 3 RB performance worth 10 seasons of top 13-18 performances? I'm strongly championship biased and high end performances generally push you over that threshold so I do value that potential over "career RB2" types.

[top9play23]

Ccj, great post and thoughts. I have pondered that question to...think too many times dynasty owners keep building for a future that never surfaces and in meantime have no championship trophies in the case. I'll take big year of production in pursuit of the "now championship" and put my ownership skills for the future to work after the celebration

[Jimmy Graham Cracker]

So what prices (picks or players) have people paid for MJD lately?

[Chris_R]

Ccj, great post and thoughts. I have pondered that question to...think too many times dynasty owners keep building for a future that never surfaces and in meantime have no championship trophies in the case. I'll take big year of production in pursuit of the "now championship" and put my ownership skills for the future to work after the celebration

Too many owners trade for "win now" players and when it doesn't happen are left with a mess of a team. I don't think MJD is totally finished, but last I checked he isn't guaranteeing anyone a championship or a big year or production. He's 28, and coming off a lisfranc injury to his foot, 2 things that are big time red flags for me. That's a tough injury to recover from and be the same and sometimes lingers for years after and there aren't very many 28 and 29 productive RB's in the league right now. Knowing those 2 things about him, if you knew he would rush for 900 yards, and 200 receiving yards, with 5 TD's, and turning 29 what would you pay for that?


Fact is, I just don't see MJD as a championship piece, nor turning in a big year of production. He could go back to his usual self, but I think the odds are stacked against him.

Now is a great time to buy. Too many people over thinking this thing.

What are some of the reasons you want to buy? It's not like there is a very compelling to case to make for him, and if it's a great time to buy what pick value would you put on him?

He's a three down back which is rare. He's had three top five finishes which is pretty elite (three out of the last five years). He's never had injuries that kept him off the field prior to last year (missed three games in the first six seasons). Somewhat low mileage given his first three years behind Fred Taylor (under 2000 total touches rush/rec, not often in playoffs).

Let's say he puts up another MJD like season this year, say top 8 RB. Then Jax lets him go. We've already seen in his career that he can operate as an elite change of pace/3rd down back... if he went somewhere favorable next year it's not inconceivable he could wind down his career as a Sproles'esque type guy.

Also, he is cognizant of fantasy football.

I wouldn't buy him for a rebuilding team unless he was being thrown away (which is pretty close to the case right now). I'd say he's a fair buy around 1.06. Personally I'd only trade him for Gio Bernard in this class.

This touches on a topic I've been thinking about awhile, but what is one season of top x performance worth to you? Is a single top 3 RB performance worth 10 seasons of top 13-18 performances? I'm strongly championship biased and high end performances generally push you over that threshold so I do value that potential over "career RB2" types.

I see what you are saying, even when people knew Michael Turner was basically done, he had a RB1 season at 28 and 29 years old before slogging through a 30 year old season. So if you needed a RB for those last 2 years of 20 years old you cashed in and helped your chances, but maybe it's that I don't see MJD rushing for 1300 yards, and even if he rushed for 1000 my roster would have to be in a unique situation to trade for him. But as early as 1.06? Not even close for me. Le'veon Bell is going to at least replicate the numbers of MJD this year by default due to situation and demand, why wouldn't I take him at 21? If I didn't need a RB starter, Michael, Lattimore, and Franklin are all better picks and maybe even Stacy. But it's all a gamble, so I understand it, but at his age I couldn't give up a mid 1st or anything in the 1st.

[ccj]

So what prices (picks or players) have people paid for MJD lately?

I traded Shane Vereen for him in one league. I offered my first (1.05 at the time) for him and was turned down. Eventually turned the 1.05 into 1.07 in a different deal and wound up with Gio at 1.07 so I'm pretty happy that one fell through.