Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

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the_future
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Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby the_future » Sat Jul 06, 2013 7:31 pm

As the subject title states, do you think Shane Vereen will be a top 15 PPR back in 2013?

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Last edited by the_future on Sat Jul 06, 2013 7:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby tstafford » Sat Jul 06, 2013 7:33 pm

No. Maybe top-25. And I'm not sure about that even.

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Re: Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby Jimmy Graham Cracker » Sat Jul 06, 2013 7:36 pm

No, I do not think he will be a RB15. I can definitely see something in the RB20-RB25 range. I don't think he'll have the weekly volume to sustain the kind of production requisite for a reliable high end RB2 status.

Unless he turns into the Pats version of Darren Sproles - which is possible - I just don't see it happening.

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Re: Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby WZA » Sat Jul 06, 2013 7:50 pm

No

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Re: Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby Seventy5 » Sat Jul 06, 2013 8:21 pm

I like Vereen but in order for him to break the top 15, he would have to beat out 5 of these RBs from last season:

RB10 - Frank Gore
RB11 - Chris Johnson
RB12 - Reggie Bush
RB13 - Matt Forte
RB14 - Darren Sproles
RB15 - Stevan Ridley
RB16 - LeSean McCoy
RB17 - Stevan Jackson
RB18 - Shonn Greene*
RB19 - Mikel Leshoure*
RB20 - BJGE*

..and then players who finished outside of the top 20 I would project to finish ahead of Vereen:
-Darren McFadden
-Ryan Matthews
-DeMarco Murray
-Maurice Jones-Drew
-David Wilson
-Lamar Miller
-Rashard Mendenhall
-Christopher Ivory

..and then these players who if things broke right could easily score more:
-Ahmad Bradshaw
-Mark Ingram
-Bryce Brown
-Ronnie Hillman
-Ben Tate
-Jonathan Stewart and/or DeAngelo Williams
-BJGE
-Mikel Leshoure (rushing yards + TDs)
-Jacquizz Rodgers
-Danny Woodhead
-STL RB1
-Andre Brown

...and then we haven't even started working the incoming rookie class into the conversation yet:
-Montee Ball
-Le'Veon Bell
-Eddie Lacy
-Giovanni Bernard

So unless there is a massive wave of injuries this season I have a hard time projecting him as a top 15 RB even in PPR leagues. I like Vereen and am actually currently trying to trade for him in one league.. but I think this is a perfect example of what happens during the offseason - dynasty owners trying to outsmart the rest of their league mates by finding the "next big thing" when the smart move is to probably just take the "thing" thats already big.

This leads to players like David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Josh Gordon, Ryan Tannehill and now Shane Vereen being overvalued to the point where unless they hit BIG.. you will have overpaid because they're being valued at ceiling prices right now. Youth/rookies, and maybes are always OVERVALUED and proven production is UNDERVALUED this time of the year. It normally flip flops come week 3 when the sleepers continue sleeping and teams start scrambling for production.
DLF HOF League | 16 Team 1PPR 1QB-2WR-2RB-1TE-2FL:
QB: Deshaun Watson | Stafford | Purdy | Hooker
RB: Saquon Barkley |DeVon Achane | Deuce
RB: Alvin Kamara | Joe Mixon / Chase Brown | Tucker
WR: Tyreek Hill | Rashee Rice | Tank Dell
WR: Stefon Diggs | DeVonta Smith | MWilliams | Claypool | C Austin
TE: Higbee | Likely | Chig Okonkwo | Strange
2023: 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3

DLF Premium League | 16 Team 1PPR 1QB-2WR-2RB-1TE-2FL:
QB: Joe Burrow | Mayfield | Hooker
RB: Saquon Barkley | Tank Bigsby | Deuce
RB: Alvin Kamara | Aaron Jones | JK Dobbins | Sean Tucker
WR: Ja'Marr Chase | Christian Watson | Hyatt | Shenault
WR: Keenan Allen | Marquise Brown | Calvin Ridley | Addison | Claypool | C Jones | Shakir
TE: Sam LaPorta | Strange | Jonnu
2023: 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2

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Re: Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby thriftyrocker » Sat Jul 06, 2013 9:09 pm

Ridley was RB15 in PPR last year with 205.4 points.

If he's going to have a solid year receiving the ball and get 50+ catches, he doesn't have to do much to reach that production level.

Something like 1100 total yards, 50 receptions, and 5 tds is all really reasonable and would be 190 points.

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Re: Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby ShowMe » Sat Jul 06, 2013 9:21 pm

Danny Woodhead was the #24 RB in PPR scoring last yr in New England and Vereen is MUCH more talented than Woodhead is. I would set Vereen's floor at #25. In order to reach a #15 ranking, it takes only about 3 more pts/game. It's certainly possible considering the lack of quality experienced WR talent in NE and with all the uncertainty there. I'm going to predict Top 20 for Vereen.
12-team PPR:

QB: Wilson, Cutler
RB: Charles, Ingram, CJ Anderson, D Murray, McKinnon, Ivory, D Booker, K Marshall
WR: Thomas, Jeffrey, Edelman, Marshall, K Wright, Shorts, Crowder
TE: Kelce , J Thomas

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Re: Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby FiremanEd » Sat Jul 06, 2013 9:43 pm

I align with Jimmy Graham Crackers line of thinking. Top 15 is a little optimistic, but I agree with the opportunity due to no more Woodhead and reduced other options that there is upside. Add in that he is healthy and could see a few more carries, I like the Top 25 prediction, maybe as high as 15, but not within.

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Re: Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby Seventy5 » Sat Jul 06, 2013 9:49 pm

ShowMe wrote:Danny Woodhead was the #24 RB in PPR scoring last yr in New England and Vereen is MUCH more talented than Woodhead is. I would set Vereen's floor at #25. In order to reach a #15 ranking, it takes only about 3 more pts/game. It's certainly possible considering the lack of quality experienced WR talent in NE and with all the uncertainty there. I'm going to predict Top 20 for Vereen.
I agree with everything you just said and its always my thought process as well until I start ranking players.

In no particular order, these are the players I really can't see him finishing ahead of UNLESS they're injured:
1) Adrian Peterson
2) LeSean McCoy
3) Trent Richardson
4) Jamaal Charles
5) Arian Foster
6) Doug Martin
7) Marshawn Lynch
8) Ray Rice
9) CJ Spiller
10) Matt Forte
11) Chris Johnson
12) Reggie Bush
13) Maurice Jones-Drew
14) DeMarco Murray
15) Alfred Morris
16) Steven Jackson

Top 15 means he is in there somewhere.... aaaannnd I just can't see that happening. Then we have:

17) Darren McFadden
18) Darren Sproles
19) Stevan Ridley
20) Frank Gore

all of whom I feel comfortable ranking ahead of Shane Vereen right now. Then we have:

21) David Wilson and/or Andre Brown
22) Lamar Miller
23) Le'Veon Bell
24) Rashard Mendenhall
25) Chris Ivory
26) Ryan Matthews
27) Ahmad Bradshaw
28) Eddie Lacy
29) Montee Ball

who all project to receiver a workload large enough to score more than Vereen on paper while everybody is healthy.

Going off where Danny Woodhead finished last year is a great starting point in theory but this is a new season.

I could see him ending up somewhere in tier 3 of what I just listed off (RB21-29) but I cannot see him beating out any of the top 20 guys (again, without injury)

******RB looks very deep when its broken down like this, but for some reason doesn't quite feel that way in the leagues I badly need RB help :problem:

******I also want to add I am a Vereen supporter, but projecting him to finish in the top 15? I just can't do it when I start putting pen to paper.
DLF HOF League | 16 Team 1PPR 1QB-2WR-2RB-1TE-2FL:
QB: Deshaun Watson | Stafford | Purdy | Hooker
RB: Saquon Barkley |DeVon Achane | Deuce
RB: Alvin Kamara | Joe Mixon / Chase Brown | Tucker
WR: Tyreek Hill | Rashee Rice | Tank Dell
WR: Stefon Diggs | DeVonta Smith | MWilliams | Claypool | C Austin
TE: Higbee | Likely | Chig Okonkwo | Strange
2023: 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3

DLF Premium League | 16 Team 1PPR 1QB-2WR-2RB-1TE-2FL:
QB: Joe Burrow | Mayfield | Hooker
RB: Saquon Barkley | Tank Bigsby | Deuce
RB: Alvin Kamara | Aaron Jones | JK Dobbins | Sean Tucker
WR: Ja'Marr Chase | Christian Watson | Hyatt | Shenault
WR: Keenan Allen | Marquise Brown | Calvin Ridley | Addison | Claypool | C Jones | Shakir
TE: Sam LaPorta | Strange | Jonnu
2023: 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2

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Re: Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby Water Buffalo » Sat Jul 06, 2013 10:23 pm

thriftyrocker wrote:Ridley was RB15 in PPR last year with 205.4 points.

If he's going to have a solid year receiving the ball and get 50+ catches, he doesn't have to do much to reach that production level.

Something like 1100 total yards, 50 receptions, and 5 tds is all really reasonable and would be 190 points.
If anything, you just proved to me that he's all but a lock to NOT finish as a top 15 RB.

1100 total yards, 50 receptions and 5 TDs would be an incredibly solid year for Vereen, certainly higher than my expectations. And if Ridley was the RB15 last year and Vereen would still be over 15 points shy of that mark? Sign me up for the under, big time.

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Re: Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby Water Buffalo » Sat Jul 06, 2013 10:28 pm

Seventy5 wrote:I like Vereen but in order for him to break the top 15, he would have to beat out 5 of these RBs from last season:

RB10 - Frank Gore
RB11 - Chris Johnson
RB12 - Reggie Bush
RB13 - Matt Forte
RB14 - Darren Sproles
RB15 - Stevan Ridley
RB16 - LeSean McCoy
RB17 - Stevan Jackson
RB18 - Shonn Greene*
RB19 - Mikel Leshoure*
RB20 - BJGE*

..and then players who finished outside of the top 20 I would project to finish ahead of Vereen:
-Darren McFadden
-Ryan Matthews
-DeMarco Murray
-Maurice Jones-Drew
-David Wilson
-Lamar Miller
-Rashard Mendenhall
-Christopher Ivory

..and then these players who if things broke right could easily score more:
-Ahmad Bradshaw
-Mark Ingram
-Bryce Brown
-Ronnie Hillman
-Ben Tate
-Jonathan Stewart and/or DeAngelo Williams
-BJGE
-Mikel Leshoure (rushing yards + TDs)
-Jacquizz Rodgers
-Danny Woodhead
-STL RB1
-Andre Brown

...and then we haven't even started working the incoming rookie class into the conversation yet:
-Montee Ball
-Le'Veon Bell
-Eddie Lacy
-Giovanni Bernard

So unless there is a massive wave of injuries this season I have a hard time projecting him as a top 15 RB even in PPR leagues. I like Vereen and am actually currently trying to trade for him in one league.. but I think this is a perfect example of what happens during the offseason - dynasty owners trying to outsmart the rest of their league mates by finding the "next big thing" when the smart move is to probably just take the "thing" thats already big.

This leads to players like David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Josh Gordon, Ryan Tannehill and now Shane Vereen being overvalued to the point where unless they hit BIG.. you will have overpaid because they're being valued at ceiling prices right now. Youth/rookies, and maybes are always OVERVALUED and proven production is UNDERVALUED this time of the year. It normally flip flops come week 3 when the sleepers continue sleeping and teams start scrambling for production.
Aside from the last paragraph (I don't think Miller or Wilson are over valued), this is a pretty fantastic response and exactly the type of thing I would post. There are too many good RBs in good situations for me to put Vereen even remotely close to the top 15. Look at the list of guys. There would have to be some monumental collapses or a Ridley injury and serious breakout campaign from Vereen for it to happen.

Believe it or not I'm actually warming a bit to the idea of Vereen having a decent year in PPR leagues simply from having a high reception total due to lack of other receiving options in NE, but I just don't see how the yards and TDs are going to be high enough for him to be anything better than a low end RB2 for fantasy in 2013.

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Re: Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby the_future » Sat Jul 06, 2013 10:45 pm

Water Buffalo wrote:
thriftyrocker wrote:Ridley was RB15 in PPR last year with 205.4 points.

If he's going to have a solid year receiving the ball and get 50+ catches, he doesn't have to do much to reach that production level.

Something like 1100 total yards, 50 receptions, and 5 tds is all really reasonable and would be 190 points.
If anything, you just proved to me that he's all but a lock to NOT finish as a top 15 RB.

1100 total yards, 50 receptions and 5 TDs would be an incredibly solid year for Vereen, certainly higher than my expectations. And if Ridley was the RB15 last year and Vereen would still be over 15 points shy of that mark? Sign me up for the under, big time.
Let's keep in mind we are talking about a PPR league Buffalo... Ridley managed the RB15 with 1300 total yards and 6 receptions. Let's say that Vereen has 56 receptions this year(might even be a little low considering how often he will be on the field). That is 500 yards worth of points ahead of Ridley just on catches alone.

75 listed a lot of RB's but when you look in to it, Vereen is very durable and compares quite well to Sproles. Most of the RB's listed have never made it a full 16 games in any season of their career or have never caught more than 30 passes in a single season in their career.

Greene,Leshoure,Mathews,Murray,MJD,Mendenhall,Ivory,Bradshaw,Ingram,Brown,Hilman,Tate,J.Stew,BGE,Quiz,Woodhead,all Rams RB's, Andre Brown,Bell,Lacy,Geo all have major flaws to overcome to become top 15 PPR backs this year.

I think Vereen ends up circa RB15-18... WIll be interesting to see all the ways they get him the ball next year.

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Re: Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby Water Buffalo » Sat Jul 06, 2013 11:00 pm

The_Future wrote:
Water Buffalo wrote:
thriftyrocker wrote:Ridley was RB15 in PPR last year with 205.4 points.

If he's going to have a solid year receiving the ball and get 50+ catches, he doesn't have to do much to reach that production level.

Something like 1100 total yards, 50 receptions, and 5 tds is all really reasonable and would be 190 points.
If anything, you just proved to me that he's all but a lock to NOT finish as a top 15 RB.

1100 total yards, 50 receptions and 5 TDs would be an incredibly solid year for Vereen, certainly higher than my expectations. And if Ridley was the RB15 last year and Vereen would still be over 15 points shy of that mark? Sign me up for the under, big time.
Let's keep in mind we are talking about a PPR league Buffalo... Ridley managed the RB15 with 1300 total yards and 6 receptions. Let's say that Vereen has 56 receptions this year(might even be a little low considering how often he will be on the field). That is 500 yards worth of points ahead of Ridley just on catches alone.

75 listed a lot of RB's but when you look in to it, Vereen is very durable and compares quite well to Sproles. Most of the RB's listed have never made it a full 16 games in any season of their career or have never caught more than 30 passes in a single season in their career.

Greene,Leshoure,Mathews,Murray,MJD,Mendenhall,Ivory,Bradshaw,Ingram,Brown,Hilman,Tate,J.Stew,BGE,Quiz,Woodhead,all Rams RB's, Andre Brown,Bell,Lacy,Geo all have major flaws to overcome to become top 15 PPR backs this year.

I think Vereen ends up circa RB15-18... WIll be interesting to see all the ways they get him the ball next year.
I understand that the discussion was PPR, hence his 190 fantasy points with 1100 yards, 50 receptions and 5 TDs. There's no confusion on my end.

Those other guys do indeed have major flaws which could prevent them from hitting the top 15 mark this year. Most of them obviously won't get there. But Vereen has a pretty major flaw too - he's the RB2 on his own team and is extremely unlikely to get a large share of early down workload which will make it incredibly difficult for him to have the yardage and TD totals necessary for top 15 production, even if the reception totals are there.

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Re: Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby Seventy5 » Sat Jul 06, 2013 11:02 pm

The_Future wrote:
Let's keep in mind we are talking about a PPR league Buffalo... Ridley managed the RB15 with 1300 total yards and 6 receptions. Let's say that Vereen has 56 receptions this year(might even be a little low considering how often he will be on the field). That is 500 yards worth of points ahead of Ridley just on catches alone.

75 listed a lot of RB's but when you look in to it, Vereen is very durable and compares quite well to Sproles. Most of the RB's listed have never made it a full 16 games in any season of their career or have never caught more than 30 passes in a single season in their career.

Greene,Leshoure,Mathews,Murray,MJD,Mendenhall,Ivory,Bradshaw,Ingram,Brown,Hilman,Tate,J.Stew,BGE,Quiz,Woodhead,all Rams RB's, Andre Brown,Bell,Lacy,Geo all have major flaws to overcome to become top 15 PPR backs this year.

I think Vereen ends up circa RB15-18... WIll be interesting to see all the ways they get him the ball next year.
I don't mean to nitpick here, but I want to get your thoughts on the "Vereen is very durable" line.

Iv owned Vereen since he entered the league because I believed he was the better all around talent, but I seem remember him missing a LOT of games due to him NOT being durable. Without looking up the specific injuries, he has been inactive for 17 games throughout his only two seasons. Inactive for 17 games out of a possible 32 games doesn't exactly = durable IMO. He had a total of 11.7 fantasy points his rookie season and 57 rushing yards / 0 receiving yards because he wasn't healthy... but I also seem to remember him practicing well at different parts of the year only to come down with different injuries (hamstrings etc)

I don't see how you can rank Vereen ahead of DeMarco, MJD, Mendenhall, Matthews, or DMC unless you're predicting injury.. in which case you can't really do because Vereen himself hasn't been able to stay healthy. Those four players weren't even on my top 16 list from above so there are 20+ players I struggle to believe Vereen will finish ahead of and thats not counting the Le'Veon Bell/Ivory/Bradshaw/Ball/Gore/David Wilson/Lamar Miller/Eddie Lacys of the world.

The only way I can understand someone having him in the top 15 (or anywhere near the top 15) is if they're predicting specific player injuries or they believe he will score the same as Darren Sproles. I cannot argue the latter, but do not think you can knock a select group of RBs with injury concerns while not doing the same with Vereen.
DLF HOF League | 16 Team 1PPR 1QB-2WR-2RB-1TE-2FL:
QB: Deshaun Watson | Stafford | Purdy | Hooker
RB: Saquon Barkley |DeVon Achane | Deuce
RB: Alvin Kamara | Joe Mixon / Chase Brown | Tucker
WR: Tyreek Hill | Rashee Rice | Tank Dell
WR: Stefon Diggs | DeVonta Smith | MWilliams | Claypool | C Austin
TE: Higbee | Likely | Chig Okonkwo | Strange
2023: 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3

DLF Premium League | 16 Team 1PPR 1QB-2WR-2RB-1TE-2FL:
QB: Joe Burrow | Mayfield | Hooker
RB: Saquon Barkley | Tank Bigsby | Deuce
RB: Alvin Kamara | Aaron Jones | JK Dobbins | Sean Tucker
WR: Ja'Marr Chase | Christian Watson | Hyatt | Shenault
WR: Keenan Allen | Marquise Brown | Calvin Ridley | Addison | Claypool | C Jones | Shakir
TE: Sam LaPorta | Strange | Jonnu
2023: 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2

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Re: Shane Vereen top 15 RB in 2013?

Postby the_future » Sat Jul 06, 2013 11:23 pm

I understand that the discussion was PPR, hence his 190 fantasy points with 1100 yards, 50 receptions and 5 TDs. There's no confusion on my end.

Those other guys do indeed have major flaws which could prevent them from hitting the top 15 mark this year. Most of them obviously won't get there. But Vereen has a pretty major flaw too - he's the RB2 on his own team and is extremely unlikely to get a large share of early down workload which will make it incredibly difficult for him to have the yardage and TD totals necessary for top 15 production, even if the reception totals are there.
Good point on Vereen being just the RB2 on a team that doesn't even run that often Water Buffalo but the reason I think he has a very good chance at cracking top RB15/20 isn't necessarily b/c of his 3rd down work from the RB position.

During Patriots spring practices, "there were times" Shane Vereen lined up as an outside receiver and got matched up with a linebacker.
Patriots Football Weekly's Paul Perillo compares the formation to the one out of which Vereen caught a 33-yard TD pass against Houston in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, beating coverage with a double move. Calling him a "versatile running back with wide receiver skills," Perillo believes Vereen will essentially be New England's No. 2 receiver behind Danny Amendola this year.


This came from Rotoworld yesterday and many other websites are posting similar stories. Outside of Amendola and Gronk, when he finally gets healthy, Vereen is their only real weapon. Lloyd/Welker/Hernandez/Woodhead posted 311 receptions for 3,600 yards last year. Either Brady throws for about 2,000 yards this year or those numbers have to go somewhere and I just have a hard time believing that Michael Jenkins, Jake Ballard, Michael Hoomanawanui and Tim Tebow will match that production.


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