Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby kmbryant09 » Tue Dec 02, 2014 8:53 am

JFever wrote:I guess I see it as a group of people that guessed right and a group of people that guessed wrong. To think that one actually called CJ ANDERSON the best rb, the starting rb, and the long time starter - out of this group back in September - is absolutely laughable and honestly extremely hard to believe. I disagree completely with ignoring situation. Situation as it pertains to a few positions is critical and CANNOT be ignored. The blocking scheme and run to pass ratio by Denver has changed / evolved and improved as the season went on. The Running back opportunity was always there. injuries have opened and closed, and opened up for each of Ball, Hillman, Thompson, and Anderson. I see it much more so like being in the right place at the right time. There is absolutely NO guarantee that Anderson keeps his role when all are healthy. He should but that doesn't mean he will. He isn't the best blocker and that will factor in. In the NFL one HAS to consider situation. To think otherwise is silly. Lets remind ourselves 32 teams passed on CJ Anderson about 7 times each. Thinking that you can ignore situation is crazy talk. Situation IS precisely why he was on the radar. If it was his unique / special skill set - he'd have been drafted by the professionals rather than flying under radar like he did up till late November.

When looking at positions like TE and RB sure try to draft the most talented one out there whenever possible - but by all means - DO NOT - Not consider their situation when trying to evaluate potential or value. This M.Ball example is a bad one I agree, but don't base all future examples off of this one.
First, the situation obviously helps. I don't think anyone is arguing that Anderson would be the #1 fantasy RB over the past month if he was splitting carries with MJD in Oakland. But ignoring his talent is the truly laughable thing (more on this in a second).

Second, did you ever consider that maybe the Broncos play-calling and reliance on the run have shifted in the past month because they've finally found a RB capable of carrying the running game? Ball was a blob of nothing. Hillman went down on 1st contact ALL THE TIME and couldn't pass block. J. Thompson is a good short-yardage back, but offers no explosiveness and doesn't make people miss. Anderson has been a complete back, which brings me to my final point:

Thirdly, Anderson isn't just producing because of the O-Line or offense. He's blocking well. Catching the ball well (2 separate 1-handed catches, 1 ridiculous 50 yard catch-and-run against Oakland, beat Justin Houston & 2 Safeties on his TD catch in week 13). Making people miss. Check out these 2 articles:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... week-12-4/

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... week-13-2/

Both articles are very good reads actually. The second article points out that Anderson forced 13 missed tackles against the Chiefs. THIRTEEN.

To suggest that's merely producing what the offense is giving to him - that's downright laughable.
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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby Jimmy Graham Cracker » Tue Dec 02, 2014 9:01 am

Jimmy Graham Cracker wrote:Moreno >>> Anderson > Hillman >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Ball

I said this a year ago.

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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby Jimmy Graham Cracker » Tue Dec 02, 2014 9:03 am

kmbryant09 wrote:
Jimmy Graham Cracker wrote:Where are you, kmbryant09? Care to eat some crow? Mmmmmmm.... it will taste sooooo good. I cooked it up with some nice HILLMAN'S MAYONAiSSE.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Hi. It tastes delicious :lol:

What are you talking about bro? That was in response to you saying Anderson would outplay Hillman 8 weeks ago and Hillman had a great game and Anderson had zero touches. I've advocated that Anderson > Hillman a year ago, don't act like you called it.

I've had this thing nailed for over a year - deal with it. Ball-lovers.

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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby dlf_jules » Tue Dec 02, 2014 9:05 am

Jimmy Graham Cracker wrote:
Jimmy Graham Cracker wrote:Moreno >>> Anderson > Hillman >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Ball

I said this a year ago.
You've taken almost every possible position in this thread, so that's not surprising.
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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby Jfever » Tue Dec 02, 2014 9:56 am

this patting ourselves on the back over Anderson is hilarious. You guessed and you were right. good job. There was and is NO way to have been able to predict that accurately over a year ago. You can think that all you want. But, you'd be wrong. This situation in Denver is not settled. It is fluid. Anderson has looked very good. But.... Moreno looked very good 1 calendar year ago. Don't get so caught up in the now. Try to remember the past, and try to understand the only thing that is consistent is change. This Denver situation is not settled and I would not be valuing CJ Anderson equal to an early 1st round pick. Some are hinting that way. I see it as far from a lock. Not saying he hasn't be impressive. He has. Remember about 1 month ago and B.Oliver of SD? Semi similar situation.

First, Have people thought maybe the Broncos are running more because Peyton doesn't like the cold as much? He never has liked the cold... Also, The run blocking scheme HAS changed as has the level of play by the linemen themselves. Also the coaching staff is calling plays that better hide weaknesses and exploit strengths of the players in the game. 2nd, Please, Please, Please stop with the UDFA crap. It does happen. Some players every year slip through the cracks. Some. The extreme minority of fantasy football productive players are UDFA. NOT as common as a post above hints at. Please don't act like because you bring up A.Foster, Cruz, et all, that it is common. It is incredibly uncommon. So to suggest otherwise - is borderline stupid. Anderson has been playing well - absolutely. Lets give credit where it's due. He is not however all the sudden extremely talented. Rather - he is playing very hard. He is clearly motivated and hungry. Couple that with the circumstances of - timing of the year, other backs being injured and less than impressive / not playing up to expectations, an offensive shift in philosophy, and better execution by the line itself as well as the play of the Defense - and what you have is a perfect storm that leads to owners on this site pumping their chests about just how right they were about CJ Anderson over a year ago.

Give me a break.... If the world was really that simple.... :wtf: :wall: :think: :crazy:
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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby kmbryant09 » Tue Dec 02, 2014 10:37 am

JFever - Did you even read my response to the last time you wrote the exact same post as you did above?

Read the articles from PFF - Anderson has been playing out of his mind. To suggest that he's merely been a product of the offense and the offensive line - that's laughable.

Has the O-line been better? Of course. But PFF's numbers don't lie - Anderson has been one of the very best RB's in the league over the past month. Pass blocking. Catching. Making people miss (13 missed tackles in the Chiefs game). The dude has been legit and CLEARLY played better than any Broncos' RB in recent memory.
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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby REPTAR » Tue Dec 02, 2014 10:49 am

JFever wrote:this patting ourselves on the back over Anderson is hilarious. You guessed and you were right. good job. There was and is NO way to have been able to predict that accurately over a year ago. You can think that all you want. But, you'd be wrong. This situation in Denver is not settled. It is fluid. Anderson has looked very good. But.... Moreno looked very good 1 calendar year ago. Don't get so caught up in the now. Try to remember the past, and try to understand the only thing that is consistent is change. This Denver situation is not settled and I would not be valuing CJ Anderson equal to an early 1st round pick. Some are hinting that way. I see it as far from a lock. Not saying he hasn't be impressive. He has. Remember about 1 month ago and B.Oliver of SD? Semi similar situation.

First, Have people thought maybe the Broncos are running more because Peyton doesn't like the cold as much? He never has liked the cold... Also, The run blocking scheme HAS changed as has the level of play by the linemen themselves. Also the coaching staff is calling plays that better hide weaknesses and exploit strengths of the players in the game. 2nd, Please, Please, Please stop with the UDFA crap. It does happen. Some players every year slip through the cracks. Some. The extreme minority of fantasy football productive players are UDFA. NOT as common as a post above hints at. Please don't act like because you bring up A.Foster, Cruz, et all, that it is common. It is incredibly uncommon. So to suggest otherwise - is borderline stupid. Anderson has been playing well - absolutely. Lets give credit where it's due. He is not however all the sudden extremely talented. Rather - he is playing very hard. He is clearly motivated and hungry. Couple that with the circumstances of - timing of the year, other backs being injured and less than impressive / not playing up to expectations, an offensive shift in philosophy, and better execution by the line itself as well as the play of the Defense - and what you have is a perfect storm that leads to owners on this site pumping their chests about just how right they were about CJ Anderson over a year ago.

Give me a break.... If the world was really that simple.... :wtf: :wall: :think: :crazy:
I'm just debating dude, let's not get all hot and bothered.

And while maybe some are, I'm def not beating my chest about Anderson, I'm just happy to have him, and after lookign at what he's done, we have very different opinions about him it seems.

I probably wouldn't be trading for CJ at this point and don't think anyone should, simply because his value is unsettled until we see what happens. A smart owner probably isn't going after him right now, unless you really believe in your personal evaluations and think he's definitely the guy going forward. No issue with your value warning.

Yeah, I remember last year too. I remember Moreno being a mediocre back throughout his short career, who excelled in pass protection and had some nice hands. I remember Peyton coming to town and Moreno getting a chance at the end of 2012, and performing OK. He starts over Ball last year, probably because he was a better pass-blocker and Ball was just a rookie who needed to learn the ropes. Moreno did well, probably because of Peyton Manning, but don't get ahead of yourself. He had barely over 1,000 yds. He ran the ball more than 15 times only 3 times. And even in the Peyton Manning led, best passing offense of all time, in 9 games he averaged less than 4 YPC. He only had 1 game over 100 rushing yds (that crazy 200+ yd game in New England). He was "very good" in fantasy, because he scored 10 rushing tds (primarily goal line stuff), and caught 60 passes for another 3 tds. He was just OK in real life. And he's not there anymore because 1) he was just ok. 2) his contract was up, Ball in the wings, not gonna pay a mediocre RB with his successor waiting in the wings. So, there's that.

I don't know what the temperatures were, but I don't think Oakland or St. Louis were that cold. I could be wrong, feel free to call me on it. But I think this shift has less to do with "Peyton's cold" than it is Denver has realized they must be more balanced and have a legitimate rushing attack if they want to win the Superbowl. That's my opinion anyway.

I think it's borderline stupid to discount a player's standout production over a 4-game stretch (and their first real chance at significant game action) by referencing draft status. I wasn't saying, nor did I ever say, UDFA stars are common. I said it is possible and plausible. The ONLY thing I was getting at there is using draft status as a talent or value barometer against real, tangible, production is, well a little silly. When I watched Victor Cruz start torching teams, I know I didn't shrug and say "well he wasn't drafted." Maybe you did, I dunno.

I believe CJ could be their guy for a number of reasons. 1) He's looked better than anyone they've had back there in years. 2) He can pass block well. He can catch well. He can run well. He can do it all, well. 3) Denver seems to prefer one main RB rather than a full-fledged committee. Whoever the starter is gets a bulk of the carries, with the backup doing spot duty (in most cases). They have little reason to remove CJ now, or even next year as far as I'm (MY OPINION) concerned. Unless Hillman suddenly gets better at pass-blockign and everything except straight line speed, or Ball just gets... better everywhere. And 4) his contract. He's signed, very cheaply, through next year as well. They don't have to worry about a Moreno-type situation, because he's not going anywhere. And even after that, in '16 Anderson is a RFA, which makes him pretty easy to hold onto if they wanted.

Again, I had nothing invested and wasn't making any claims about Anderson before this breakout, so I'm not pumping my chest. I'm just saying, what if it's just that we have a pretty good player on our hands? We may disagree in our assessment of him, but either way, I'm stoked to have such a hungry, motivated, player who is playing very hard on my team (credit where credit is due :D )

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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby evorzan » Tue Dec 02, 2014 10:49 am

kmbryant09 wrote:JFever - Did you even read my response to the last time you wrote the exact same post as you did above?

Read the articles from PFF - Anderson has been playing out of his mind. To suggest that he's merely been a product of the offense and the offensive line - that's laughable.

Has the O-line been better? Of course. But PFF's numbers don't lie - Anderson has been one of the very best RB's in the league over the past month. Pass blocking. Catching. Making people miss (13 missed tackles in the Chiefs game). The dude has been legit and CLEARLY played better than any Broncos' RB in recent memory.
The O-Line has been better, but I think at least part of it can be attributed to blocking for a runner they believe in. They've seen him do some crazy things like that 50 yard catch and run. They know if they give him an opportunity he will seize it and get something positive. Hillman you couldn't say that about between the tackles. Ball you couldn't say that about. This is a team sport, and things like this can affect the play of others.
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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby Jfever » Tue Dec 02, 2014 11:16 am

Kmbryant09,

I read the links. I understand fully that he has been very productive and I understand the kid also has talent (he wouldn't be in the NCAA let alone the NFL if he had NO talent). I've watched each of his games and I have been impressed. I understand that what I'm saying could be taken as someone who loves Anderson as me talking down on Anderson. Rather, to be clear, I'm more talking down at those folks that think for some reason - they made a call on Anderson a calendar year ago. I say BS to that. Because 1 calender year ago there was little to no factual / observable, measurable, or even usable information that could have led to that guess. In the last calender year, Moreno has left, Ball has been less than impressive, frequently injured, and unable to live up to his draft status. Hillman has been up and down and basically the definition of inconstancy, the O-Line has been horrifically bad at run blocking in the beginning, the coaches seemed inept in regard to figuring out the run game. Hell, in the last 6 weeks, Anderson was a free agent, then signed by many fantasy people, only to then be dropped as the job shuffled between Ball to Hillman.

The blocking scheme has changed for the better, and Anderson has gotten a shot and done very well. More so (I'll continue to argue) due to circumstances I just mentioned rather than his elite skill set someone claims to have seen a calender year ago. That is what I'm saying. There are many factors that have led to Anderson (other than his own play) having the success he's had. Basically, I'm not saying he isn't talented at all, what I AM saying is that his talent didn't get him this opportunity, rather, it is preventing this opportunity from leaving or moving on to J.Thompson. That is how I see it. Anderson got this shot by default. Not because his elite skill set. Kudos to him for not letting it slip past him. Also, Kudos to those who guessed right and to those whom had the roster space and the patience to wait this one out. Just don't sit there and tell me and every other reader that a year ago - you knew that one day Anderson would definitively win the battle for the starting rb for the Broncos and he'd also be a top producing fantasy rb. Please - just stop with that. Not one person, not even the professionals "knew" that. Was it possible - sure. Was it probable - NO WAY!

To be clear. I'm also not insinuating that it isn't possible for a UDFA to hit. I too saw a preseason game about 4 ish years or so ago by Cruz, and was immediately in love with his play. Anderson can play. I'm not saying otherwise and he may keep that job. I'm just simply saying it (draft stock), should be considered when reading people's posts indicating they had this situation pegged a year ago. It is simply not true is all and if it is - it was simply a guess based on very little if any factual, observable evidence from that time. At one point in time I was in the extreme minority on these threads about how I felt about Cruz. I voiced my opinion early on in the process and was bashed for it many times over. The vast majority here felt Nicks was the wr to own. How he had the "wr1 size" blah blah blah- (Hilarious!) and Cruz was small. etc. etc etc. At the time - I didn't have much to base my opinion on other than what my eyes told me. I see some similarities in that situation to this one with Anderson. However, Cruz at that time was still a starter and was on the field, and Anderson, not too long ago was a deep depth guy behind more than one rb that had higher draft stock, and higher expectations (both from the team and the public) - and because of that - not on the field - and because of that - the situations differ.

Not getting too worked up about this - just trying to be clear. The constant need for pumping one self up for being right about something on these forums gets to me a bit. I don't understand it.
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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby Jfever » Tue Dec 02, 2014 12:13 pm

Side note; If you were an owner that was semi running back needy and basically middle of the pack in terms of team strength, would you sell CJ Anderson to a very strong team in your league for a 2015 late 2nd and a mid / late 3rd?

This went down in a league, I was just informed. Apparently the seller of Anderson doesn't believe him too much. A late 2nd and a mid to late 3rd are FAR from locks. Head scratcher...
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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby REPTAR » Tue Dec 02, 2014 12:25 pm

JFever wrote:Side note; If you were an owner that was semi running back needy and basically middle of the pack in terms of team strength, would you sell CJ Anderson to a very strong team in your league for a 2015 late 2nd and a mid / late 3rd?

This went down in a league, I was just informed. Apparently the seller of Anderson doesn't believe him too much. A late 2nd and a mid to late 3rd are FAR from locks. Head scratcher...
No. That makes little sense to me. I'm OK with cashing out on CJ, especially if you don't think you're going to make the playoffs and want to make sure you get some value, but that would not be enough for me.

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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby Jfever » Tue Dec 02, 2014 1:09 pm

Didn't make sense to me either. Just wanted to share the news as I think it shows that not everyone is as high on Anderson for whatever reason. I myself think it selling Anderson a bit low. He does have questions but a late 2nd and early 3rd are SO far from anything proven that it seems the seller of Anderson here got bent over.
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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby DJB » Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:36 pm

Is Hillman still a hold heading into next season? Or is this simply CJ Anderson's backfield now?
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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby BuckeyeNation » Sun Dec 07, 2014 11:10 pm

DJB wrote:Is Hillman still a hold heading into next season? Or is this simply CJ Anderson's backfield now?
The RB position in DEN is a very valuable commodity as long as Peyton is there, and I have very little faith in being able to pick 1 RB to be the main guy going forward. Hillman looked pretty good with the opportunity that he had, and the team still has a lot invested in Ball. Anderson was buried on the depth chart for almost 2 years before he got his shot. He's made the most of it obviously (and been my personal favorite of the backfield), but I have to think that the backfield could shake out several different ways next year.

For me, I'm holding any piece of the DEN backfield that I get a great deal to sell them. At the same time, I won't be investing anymore into the backfield unless it's the RB that people value the least at the time. Plenty of upside, but I still think it could be a crap shoot. Next year is a long ways away.
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Re: Moreno v.s. Ball (and why Hillman might be the guy)

Postby DJB » Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:51 pm

Thanks for the reply Buckeye. Most appreciated. :)
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