Stewart's worth in pure picks

[Madster]

Hi,

A guy in my league recently gave me this offer:

I give:
Jonathan Stewart
1.09

I get:
1.06

It was an instant reject, but only because I think Stewart is worth more. Since I have found that he is a somewhat polarizing player, I thought I might ask you guys what you think he is currently worth?

It is a 12 team, 53 roster IDP PPR league where we start 2-4 RBs.

[SkinnyElvis]

At this point, he is not worth a 1st round pick alone. But moving up 3 slots in this draft class is pretty much worth nothing to me unless you are in love with a player and don't want risk waiting for him.

[dlf_jacobf]

It is always tough to answer questions like this, but I always look at it from this perspective. If Stewart was a part of this draft class, where would he be ranked? To me the answer is that he would be far and away the concensus 1.01 pick and it wouldn't be close. Sure, there might be some injury concerns but just about ever RB in this class has injury concerns.

Then the question is how much does age and situation impact that standing, which is a harder question to answer. If someone were trying to acquire Stewart from me, I think I would need an early 1st to even consider it. Anything involving me sending a first back or that doesn't have a 1.05 or better coming my way isn't even going to make me pause before hitting reject. To say that he isn't worth a 1st round pick right now is a definite sign of rookie fever.

[Madster]

Both the 2 first comments, and the initial votes confirm, that he indeed is a polarizing player.

Keep the feedback coming, love it so far.

[scarecrows15]

The ADP Data for April on this site has Stewart a couple of spots lower than Lacy at RB. However, I think any rookie carries more risk than Stewart. Plus, you already know Stewart's situation, but it remains a mystery where any rookie winds up. Personally I like Stewart and I would probably need a top three rookie pick to even consider it.

[Water Buffalo]

I can't believe the first response. Not worth a 1st round pick alone? I know he's a polarizing player, as has been stated, but to consider that some people value him less than even the 1.12 boggles my mind.

The trade offer that was offered the OP is laughably bad.

I think he's worth anywhere from the 1.01 to 1.06 this year, depending on how you view Stewart vs if there's anyone you're in love with that you might be able to draft in that range. Most years I'd easily take the 1.01 over Stewart at this point in Stewart's career, but this particular draft makes that a bit tougher of a decision. I'm going to have a much better feel for who I like and don't like once the NFL draft happens.

[henry1jg]

I can't believe the first response. Not worth a 1st round pick alone? I know he's a polarizing player, as has been stated, but to consider that some people value him less than even the 1.12 boggles my mind.

The trade offer that was offered the OP is laughably bad.

I think he's worth anywhere from the 1.01 to 1.06 this year, depending on how you view Stewart vs if there's anyone you're in love with that you might be able to draft in that range. Most years I'd easily take the 1.01 over Stewart at this point in Stewart's career, but this particular draft makes that a bit tougher of a decision. I'm going to have a much better feel for who I like and don't like once the NFL draft happens.

I have 1.11 & I would not even consider giving it for Jstew...

This is what I wrote about Jstew in February, & I stand by every word of it:

Jstew - It's safe to say I've completely lost faith & that I am now a Jstew hater. His absolute upside imo is a RB2, and he needs so many things to fall in his favor for that to happen. First, the Panthers would have to cut Dwill. If they make Dwill a post 6/1 cut, they free up $3.4 mil this yr, however they would be creating $6 mil in dead money against their 2014 cap. I don't think a Dwill release is imminent, even tho many do, because the Panthers are gna be caah strapped in 2014 as well, & tying up $6 mil in a player you don't have just isnt good business. Second, say Dwill is gone, Jstew still does not recieve even 50% of GL carries. Cam & Tolbert will vulture many of these opportunities to score TD's. Third, in order for Jatew to reach high end RB production, he would need at least 1,300-1,500 total yards bc he'll only score between 5-6 TD's. Lastly of course, this is all based on the assumption that Jstew stays healthy. Good luck with that.

[Water Buffalo]

I can't believe the first response. Not worth a 1st round pick alone? I know he's a polarizing player, as has been stated, but to consider that some people value him less than even the 1.12 boggles my mind.

The trade offer that was offered the OP is laughably bad.

I think he's worth anywhere from the 1.01 to 1.06 this year, depending on how you view Stewart vs if there's anyone you're in love with that you might be able to draft in that range. Most years I'd easily take the 1.01 over Stewart at this point in Stewart's career, but this particular draft makes that a bit tougher of a decision. I'm going to have a much better feel for who I like and don't like once the NFL draft happens.

I have 1.11 & I would not even consider giving it for Jstew...

This is what I wrote about Jstew in February, & I stand by every word of it:

Jstew - It's safe to say I've completely lost faith & that I am now a Jstew hater. His absolute upside imo is a RB2, and he needs so many things to fall in his favor for that to happen. First, the Panthers would have to cut Dwill. If they make Dwill a post 6/1 cut, they free up $3.4 mil this yr, however they would be creating $6 mil in dead money against their 2014 cap. I don't think a Dwill release is imminent, even tho many do, because the Panthers are gna be caah strapped in 2014 as well, & tying up $6 mil in a player you don't have just isnt good business. Second, say Dwill is gone, Jstew still does not recieve even 50% of GL carries. Cam & Tolbert will vulture many of these opportunities to score TD's. Third, in order for Jatew to reach high end RB production, he would need at least 1,300-1,500 total yards bc he'll only score between 5-6 TD's. Lastly of course, this is all based on the assumption that Jstew stays healthy. Good luck with that.

Don't get me wrong, I completely understand that line of thinking. I've soured a bit on him myself (who hasn't?). But who are you absolutely loving at the back end of this 1st round that doesn't have serious question marks? Late 1st round RBs last year included Pead and Hillman. If this year turns out even remotely similar, I'll take Stewart over those types of guys, and at the very least he's absolutely of similar "worth".

[thriftyrocker]

This is what I wrote about Jstew in February, & I stand by every word of it:

Time to offer a 3rd for Stewart LOL

[kmbryant09]

I get that Stewart is a polarizing figure, but I don't think he's a safer asset than a 1st round draft pick.

Stewart is 4-5 years older than most rookies, and he's already played 5 seasons in the league. Only 2 of those seasons has he even been moderately reliable. And he's yet to show that he can stay healthy and be a lead back.

Sure, no rookie has shown anything in the NFL, but that's the beauty of it when you compare them to Stewart...Stewart has shown one ability so far throughout his 5 years in the NFL - that he can't be a reliable starting RB.

And like others have said, so many things have to break right for him to be a legitimate RB 2 this year. I value him as a mid-to-late 1st rounder. I wouldn't give up the 6th pick for him, but I'd have to give up the 12th pick for him.

[SkinnyElvis]

I can't believe the first response. Not worth a 1st round pick alone? I know he's a polarizing player, as has been stated, but to consider that some people value him less than even the 1.12 boggles my mind.

As others have pointed out, it's going to be his 6th year in the league. He has had 2 years of RB2 production assuming a PPR league. I would rather take a high risk/high upside WR at the end of the 1st round than have Stewart. But, I do believe in trading rookie picks since they are overvalued. I think I could get more than Stewart at 1.12 if I was lucky enough to have 1.12!

[ekassor]

Stewart is 26 years old and clearly washed up, put a fork in him . . . and then the Panthers released D. Williams, confirmed that Cam is too valuable to let him run around like Vick on steroids . . . and announced that Tolbert was their RB1, hehe.

The truth is in there somewhere

[Spinkso]

It is always tough to answer questions like this, but I always look at it from this perspective. If Stewart was a part of this draft class, where would he be ranked? To me the answer is that he would be far and away the concensus 1.01 pick and it wouldn't be close. Sure, there might be some injury concerns but just about ever RB in this class has injury concerns.

Then the question is how much does age and situation impact that standing, which is a harder question to answer. If someone were trying to acquire Stewart from me, I think I would need an early 1st to even consider it. Anything involving me sending a first back or that doesn't have a 1.05 or better coming my way isn't even going to make me pause before hitting reject. To say that he isn't worth a 1st round pick right now is a definite sign of rookie fever.

I wouldn't part with a late first. I don't think he'd be my RB1, let alone the clear cut 1.1.
We can't overlook him being
A. 26 years old
B. Not the goal line back as long as Newton is in town.
C. Eclipsed 900 yards once in 5 years
D. Checkered injury history

We're five years in, if he was going to "get it" I think he would have done it by now. At what point do we say he is what he is... An overpaid committee running back...

[dlf_jacobf]

It is always tough to answer questions like this, but I always look at it from this perspective. If Stewart was a part of this draft class, where would he be ranked? To me the answer is that he would be far and away the concensus 1.01 pick and it wouldn't be close. Sure, there might be some injury concerns but just about ever RB in this class has injury concerns.

Then the question is how much does age and situation impact that standing, which is a harder question to answer. If someone were trying to acquire Stewart from me, I think I would need an early 1st to even consider it. Anything involving me sending a first back or that doesn't have a 1.05 or better coming my way isn't even going to make me pause before hitting reject. To say that he isn't worth a 1st round pick right now is a definite sign of rookie fever.

I wouldn't part with a late first. I don't think he'd be my RB1, let alone the clear cut 1.1.
We can't overlook him being
A. 26 years old
B. Not the goal line back as long as Newton is in town.
C. Eclipsed 900 yards once in 5 years
D. Checkered injury history

We're five years in, if he was going to "get it" I think he would have done it by now. At what point do we say he is what he is... An overpaid committee running back...

You missed an awfully big part of my post. The second sentance says "If Stewart was a part of this draft class" meaning if he were a rookie this year, he would be leaps and bounds ahead of everyone in this draft class in terms of fantasy drafts. He was the 2nd pick in most rookie drafts in the 2008 draft class (one of the best for skill position guys in the last 10 years). He would have blown away any option that there is this year.

Your comments about age, situation, etc are all dealing with what I mention in the second paragraph. We agree that it is important, but we disagree on how much importance it is. The age is the biggest thing to me, because that is the one thing that he has that none of the actual rookies have. Almost all of them have injury historys, none of them have eclipsed 900 yards in the NFL as of yet (no guarenttee that they will either), and they could easily end up in situations with someone else taking part of the load. The draft could change things, but today, I'm needing an early 1st to give up Stewart. After this weekend, it might be a mid-1st. Who knows.

[kelsier]

I recently gave up a 2014 1st and the 2013 3.02 for JStew and a 2014 5th. I have a really good team, so the next year first will likely be no better than the 1.08. It's a bit more than I wanted to pay, but the payoff is potentially substantial. Can't argue with much of the criticism above, JStew has severely underperformed and there is no guarantee of future success. Still, a late first round pick is rarely an asset you can't do without, so I wouldn't criticize anyone who wanted to take a flier on JStew hitting it big.

In this draft, I think anything past the 1.06 is a reasonable price to pay, depending on your team's strength. A rebuilding team shouldn't want anything to do with Stewart, but a contending team would do well to consider him at these prices.