Tavons Anonymous

[49ersFaithful80]

The way I see it, anyone desperate enough to move up to get him, or draft him early, isn't doing so to simply use him as a "traditional" slot receiver. Guys drafted early in the first round have plays drawn up for them. They are expected to deliver often and early.

Of course he wouldn't just be a slot WR, much of his appeal has to do with return abilities. Other WR's have been drafted high for their return ability higher than Austin will likely be drafted.

Desmond Howard was drafted 4th overall.
Tedd Ginn drafted was drafted 9th overall.

Being drafted high as a player with kick return ability does not necessarily equal what I think you are claiming. A player with return ability can be drafted high with major issues or questions about their ability to be an NFL WR... just because teams think they migh tbe able to get something out of them as a WR. Being drafted high could just mean that he's a slot WR that teams think can also offer great play making ability in the return game.

I disagree with this sentiment; no one in modern day football is drafted anywhere close to the top 10 because of their return abilities.

Your telling me that the Dolphins drafted Ted Ginn at 9 because he was a good return man? no that was a very small bonus; their plan was for him to become one of the best deep threats in the league.

If you want a return specialist you draft Trindon Holliday in the 6th round not Ted Ginn at 9 overall.

The fact that teams are considering drafting a WR who stands at 5'9 175 lbs in the top 15 tells you he is special, and it has almost nothing to do with his return ability although that is a small bonus.

Several analysts including Mike Mayock have said that Tavon has the best movement skills they have ever seen

For me it will ultimately come down to the situation he lands in; which is unbelievably important for WR's.

Land on a run first team with an awful QB and everyone will think you're a bust for your first 3 years (aka Michael Crabtree).

I have the 1.02 and it is a real possibility that I take Tavon.

[ccj]

I think he has just as much chance to become Desmond Howard as Percy Harvin.

If I'm sitting on 1.01 and I believe in him, there isn't any one situation that makes him more or less of a no-brainer pick. Clearly, he's probably going off the board in the first 15-20 picks of the NFL Draft. That alone should be enough to take comfort in him at 1.01. Any team drafting him that high intends to make him a centerpiece of the offense. Landing spot/situation should not matter at 1.01. You're supposed to be taking what you deem the best rookie, period.

Which one of those guys is the good one? The one with the Superbowl MVP or the one that was actively jettisoned from the team that drafted him? I keed I keed.

Edit: my bad grammar

[Igwebuike 4 Prez]

[Spinkso]

The new NFL is a space game. Tavon Austin is the epitome of the prototype for the new space player.
He's faster than DeSean Jackson, quicker than CJ Spiller.
Is a slot monster/9 route on the outside/PR/KR/3rd back/Terror in a pistol-read/draw offense at RB due to his height+Speed+quickness.
People say he's too light... He's 5 pounds lighter than DeSean Jackson, two inches shorter and built very solid.
He's missed zero games and zero practices at WVU.
He's not Percy Harvin, because Harvin is bigger/more violent. That comparison only works if you're talking about coming from the same mold. Both are space guys, but both can/will exceed for different reasons. As electric as Harvin is, he's not as fast or as quick as Austin. Austin won't break the arm tackles that Harvin can.

I've been saying Austin at 1.1 for months now. In a draft lacking elite players, Austin is the new elite.

[Igwebuike 4 Prez]

If Austin is all the superlatives people say he is, then he should be in the discussion for the #1 pick in the NFL Draft.

While I think any team taking him Top 15 definitely intends to use him heavily, NFL teams are drafting with a different set of criteria in mind. Unless your league awards points for return yardage, expectations need to be tempered. Some are talking about Austin like he is a once in a generation talent. Truth is, the players he is most often compared to (Harvin, Desean, Cobb) have been drafted in the last 5 years.

[kmbryant09]

If Austin is all the superlatives people say he is, then he should be in the discussion for the #1 pick in the NFL Draft.

While I think any team taking him Top 15 definitely intends to use him heavily, NFL teams are drafting with a different set of criteria in mind. Unless your league awards points for return yardage, expectations need to be tempered. Some are talking about Austin like he is a once in a generation talent. Truth is, the players he is most often compared to (Harvin, Desean, Cobb) have been drafted in the last 5 years.

Who has suggested that he's a once in a generation talent?

You don't buy the hype? Fine. But don't pretend to put words in people's mouths.

Many people have suggested that Austin is one of, if not the quickest player on tape they've ever scouted. His quickness, lateral agility, and elite speed jump off the screen immediately when you watch him play. He can stop on a dime, change direction, and accelerate to full speed noticeably quicker than anyone else on the field. In that sense, he's like Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb. I actually think he's better than those 2 at changing direction, but obviously isn't quite as big/physical.

In an age where C.J. Spiller, D. Sproles, R. Cobb, D. Jackson, and P. Harvin can excel as space players and give defensive coordinators nightmares, Austin can certainly be a terror in the NFL. Give him 10-12 touches a game (6-8 catches, 3-5 carries), and he'll be a perennial Pro Bowler.

[all day]

I am not going to beat this dead horse much more but I am very glad that I don't have any picks higher than 5 in any of my leagues. I hope other people take him and push players I like more down to me. He may turn out to be good but the statistics of players similar in stature and skills suggest that he will be a rare case if he turns out to be more than a return man. Seems like a big gamble for such a high pick.

[kmbryant09]

I am not going to beat this dead horse much more but I am very glad that I don't have any picks higher than 5 in any of my leagues. I hope other people take him and push players I like more down to me. He may turn out to be good but the statistics of players similar in stature and skills suggest that he will be a rare case if he turns out to be more than a return man. Seems like a big gamble for such a high pick.

And TE's as small as Aaron Hernandez (230 lbs?) don't work out very often.
And QB's as small as Drew Brees & Russell Wilson don't work out very often.
And 36-year-old QB's coming off of neck surgeries don't work out very often.
And RB's don't recover from ACL injuries in 8 months.

Sometimes the past can help us predict the future.

Sometimes the past is just a load of crap.

[Igwebuike 4 Prez]

Who has suggested that he's a once in a generation talent?

You don't buy the hype? Fine. But don't pretend to put words in people's mouths.

Many people have suggested that Austin is one of, if not the quickest player on tape they've ever scouted. His quickness, lateral agility, and elite speed jump off the screen immediately when you watch him play. He can stop on a dime, change direction, and accelerate to full speed noticeably quicker than anyone else on the field. In that sense, he's like Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb. I actually think he's better than those 2 at changing direction, but obviously isn't quite as big/physical.

In an age where C.J. Spiller, D. Sproles, R. Cobb, D. Jackson, and P. Harvin can excel as space players and give defensive coordinators nightmares, Austin can certainly be a terror in the NFL. Give him 10-12 touches a game (6-8 catches, 3-5 carries), and he'll be a perennial Pro Bowler.

I'm not putting words in anyone's mouth. Don't know why you are getting defensive. What I say should have no bearing on how you feel about him.

It is suggested all the time in this space by the the people highest on Austin. How people haven't seen short area quickness/change of direction like his since Barry Sanders. How he is so much faster than Spiller, Desean, Chris Johnson, pick your fastest 40 times. I could go on and on. People attach these kinds of comments to him as if players like him haven't been seen for 10-15 years. I cited Harvin and Cobb to point out that Austin is not a complete freak. Is he the kind of player the NFL is emphasizing more? No doubt.

I think you are overprojecting his numbers. 3-5 rushes per game? At his size? That's 48-80 carries a season. Neither Harvin nor Cobb get that. Harvin averaged 3 carries a game in his best season.

My main point: the hype is spinning out of control. We're only 2 days from the draft. People are still trying to justify Austin at 1.01. If you like him, just take him.

[tstafford]

Great thread.

My two cents: I agree w/ RustyRam. In this draft, I have at least six players that I couldn't fault someone for taking at 1.01. Austin is certainly one of those guys. That said, I can't call my shot right now on who I'd take if I had the 1.01. Because there are so many guys that I could see being 1.01-worthy, I want to see where they land to break the ties. Among the six or so players, I'd just go with the guy that fit my team needs and had the best chance for immediate production. This is a much different approach than I normally take in dynasty. But this isn't a normal draft.

Personal taste comes in to this too. I'm a tad risk averse thus I like DeAndre Hopkins and Robert Woods (later of course). Austin seems like a risk to me. I can see all the arguments in his favor, but I also can't shake my feeling that he might end up being a bit of a rich man's Dexter McCluster. I hope I'm wrong about that because I know a lot of people are about to invest in him. But I'm sort of glad I'm not going to be one of them (sitting at 1.12 and he surely won't be there for me). Net/net: There isn't a good NFL/fantasy comp for Austin and that's scary to me. But man, if he hits it could be very sweet.

[kmbryant09]

Who has suggested that he's a once in a generation talent?

You don't buy the hype? Fine. But don't pretend to put words in people's mouths.

Many people have suggested that Austin is one of, if not the quickest player on tape they've ever scouted. His quickness, lateral agility, and elite speed jump off the screen immediately when you watch him play. He can stop on a dime, change direction, and accelerate to full speed noticeably quicker than anyone else on the field. In that sense, he's like Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb. I actually think he's better than those 2 at changing direction, but obviously isn't quite as big/physical.

In an age where C.J. Spiller, D. Sproles, R. Cobb, D. Jackson, and P. Harvin can excel as space players and give defensive coordinators nightmares, Austin can certainly be a terror in the NFL. Give him 10-12 touches a game (6-8 catches, 3-5 carries), and he'll be a perennial Pro Bowler.

I'm not putting words in anyone's mouth. Don't know why you are getting defensive. What I say should have no bearing on how you feel about him.

It is suggested all the time in this space by the the people highest on Austin. How people haven't seen short area quickness/change of direction like his since Barry Sanders. How he is so much faster than Spiller, Desean, Chris Johnson, pick your fastest 40 times. I could go on and on. People attach these kinds of comments to him as if players like him haven't been seen for 10-15 years. I cited Harvin and Cobb to point out that Austin is not a complete freak. Is he the kind of player the NFL is emphasizing more? No doubt.

I think you are overprojecting his numbers. 3-5 rushes per game? At his size? That's 48-80 carries a season. Neither Harvin nor Cobb get that. Harvin averaged 3 carries a game in his best season.

My main point: the hype is spinning out of control. We're only 2 days from the draft. People are still trying to justify Austin at 1.01. If you like him, just take him.

I'm just saying that when you take what someone says about one area of Austin's game, and then generalize that statement to make it sound like Austin is a once-in-a-generation player, you are putting words into people's mouths. If no1 has said that Austin is a once-in-a-generation player, then don't bring that up.

Again, I don't think anyone has said "he is so much faster than Spiller, DeSean, Chris Johnson". I've heard/seen people say he could be as fast as them, or may be quicker than Spiller/Johnson, but I think you're exaggerating a bit on the Austin hype.

As for the rushes, I am simply projecting how I envision him being best utilized in the NFL. Jeez, the guy had 344 rushing yards in a single game against Oklahoma last year! Once WVU realized the damage Austin can do with the ball in his hands, he averaged 14.5 carries per game (for over 9 yards per carry). I certainly don't expect him to come close to that in the NFL, but is it really blasphemous to project 3-5 backfield touches per game for a top-15 pick who has clearly demonstrated an ability to play out of the backfield for limited snaps at an elite level?

They hype is spinning out of control? It's not like people are projecting him to put up 100/1200/10 and 500/5 rushing as a rookie, or ever! The only projections I've seen have been to follow Harvin/Cobb (suggesting that he'd be flex-worth as a rookie with a potential to be a top10 WR). That's out of control?

You don't like Austin, that's fine. Really, I don't have a single problem with that. But for a player that could be a top15 NFL pick and 1.1 in rookie drafts, they hype is not spinning out of control. Just because you don't agree with the hype doesn't mean its out of control.

[all day]

I am not going to beat this dead horse much more but I am very glad that I don't have any picks higher than 5 in any of my leagues. I hope other people take him and push players I like more down to me. He may turn out to be good but the statistics of players similar in stature and skills suggest that he will be a rare case if he turns out to be more than a return man. Seems like a big gamble for such a high pick.

And TE's as small as Aaron Hernandez (230 lbs?) don't work out very often.
And QB's as small as Drew Brees & Russell Wilson don't work out very often.
And 36-year-old QB's coming off of neck surgeries don't work out very often.
And RB's don't recover from ACL injuries in 8 months.

Sometimes the past can help us predict the future.

Sometimes the past is just a load of crap.

I think that you are proving my point though. Just because there are exceptions does not mean that it is going to happen very often. I am talking about probability. There are also smaller WRs that work out but there is a much larger sample size that does not. I don't actually dislike Austin and if he was being talked about in the end of the first in dynasty or second round in the NFL I could see taking him. But to talk about him as 1.1 or in the first in the actual NFL seems like a big statistical reach.

To Tim's point, I like risks to be calculated and have a lower downside. Austin may blow up and be great but I think that he as a better chance of being like Ted Ginn.

[Igwebuike 4 Prez]

I'm just saying that when you take what someone says about one area of Austin's game, and then generalize that statement to make it sound like Austin is a once-in-a-generation player, you are putting words into people's mouths. If no1 has said that Austin is a once-in-a-generation player, then don't bring that up.

Again, I don't think anyone has said "he is so much faster than Spiller, DeSean, Chris Johnson". I've heard/seen people say he could be as fast as them, or may be quicker than Spiller/Johnson, but I think you're exaggerating a bit on the Austin hype.

As for the rushes, I am simply projecting how I envision him being best utilized in the NFL. Jeez, the guy had 344 rushing yards in a single game against Oklahoma last year! Once WVU realized the damage Austin can do with the ball in his hands, he averaged 14.5 carries per game (for over 9 yards per carry). I certainly don't expect him to come close to that in the NFL, but is it really blasphemous to project 3-5 backfield touches per game for a top-15 pick who has clearly demonstrated an ability to play out of the backfield for limited snaps at an elite level?

They hype is spinning out of control? It's not like people are projecting him to put up 100/1200/10 and 500/5 rushing as a rookie, or ever! The only projections I've seen have been to follow Harvin/Cobb (suggesting that he'd be flex-worth as a rookie with a potential to be a top10 WR). That's out of control?

You don't like Austin, that's fine. Really, I don't have a single problem with that. But for a player that could be a top15 NFL pick and 1.1 in rookie drafts, they hype is not spinning out of control. Just because you don't agree with the hype doesn't mean its out of control.

You stated yourself that many people have suggested that Austin is arguably, the quickest player they have ever scouted? Does that not sound to you like someone is talking about a player seen on the rarest occasions? Maybe you take issue with MY choice of words (once in a generation). It still doesn't change my point. When Adrian Peterson came out, people said he was the best RB since Eric Dickerson. The superlatives thrown around with Austin sound the same. Any time you are talking about a player being the best ever at anything, you are setting a high standard.

Yes, people have been projecting the kind of numbers you posted. Even you projected numbers that haven't been posted by comparable NFL players. 10-12 touches a game? Many of the elite WRs don't touch the ball that much.

You are trying to make this about me not LIKING Austin. That's not what this is about. The hype is out on control, in my opinion. Two months ago, people were slotting Lacy as 1.01 and only talking about Austin as a Top 5 pick. Now, Austin is about to become the standard for "space" players in the NFL? That kind of hype is out of control.

[joeday]

I think its less of Austin being hyped because he is a "once in a generation player", and more because this draft doesn't have any actual "once in a generation" type players.

2012 had a boatload of them
2011 had AJG and Julio

Maybe we just get so used to looking for these type of players that when a draft filled with a bunch of good players come around its just harder to process. So is Austin a "once in a generation" talent? I personally don't think so. But in a draft with no elite players, and just a bunch of good ones, he may be the best of the bunch, and that is what is pushing up the perceived hype.

[MR ROURKE]

I disagree with this sentiment; no one in modern day football is drafted anywhere close to the top 10 because of their return abilities.

Your telling me that the Dolphins drafted Ted Ginn at 9 because he was a good return man? no that was a very small bonus; their plan was for him to become one of the best deep threats in the league.

If you want a return specialist you draft Trindon Holliday in the 6th round not Ted Ginn at 9 overall.

The fact that teams are considering drafting a WR who stands at 5'9 175 lbs in the top 15 tells you he is special, and it has almost nothing to do with his return ability although that is a small bonus.

Several analysts including Mike Mayock have said that Tavon has the best movement skills they have ever seen

For me it will ultimately come down to the situation he lands in; which is unbelievably important for WR's.

Land on a run first team with an awful QB and everyone will think you're a bust for your first 3 years (aka Michael Crabtree).

I have the 1.02 and it is a real possibility that I take Tavon.

What is the modern NFL if you discount 2007? You discount it like they were drafted in the 1960's.

T.Ginn was a good return man, who played WR. The WR side of his game wasn't that great, but the Dolphins thought they could work with him and make an NFL WR out of him. So, their hope was that they were drafting a return man that they could make into a starting WR.

I didn't say Austin couldn't move or didn't have talent, just made the point that being drafted high doesn't garuntee that he's a big part of the offense. He could be a KR, PR, gadget play, and slot WR, but the premise of the OP was that Austin couldn't possibly be drafted high just to be a slot WR. I was supporting that believe in that he offers more than just a slot WR. He doesn't really have the size to survive being an every down player to me, but that's just my opinion. Sure people will say that x player is bla bla bla, but those few exceptions don't come near the huge number of failed under sized players that make the odds still stacked against Austin in FF terms. Austin moves well, he will have to and he should move a lot better than most players because he's a lot smaller than the typical prospect. A smaller player has less weight and size and should move better... or else there is a problem and no one would be talking about T.Austin. T.Austin has a better skill set than most of those failed smaller WR's, but he won't find the safety of the sideline as much in the tight spaces of the NFL. Still wouldn't invest a FF 1.01 regardless of his landing spot.