Danny Amendola's Value

[WZA]

If he stays healthy...Amendola will be the WR3 this year.

AJ
Calvin
Amendola

I know...I'm frickin' crazy, but I'm putting it out there.

It's not even crazy though. I've already been on record saying that I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he outscored every single WR not named Calvin this year. Not saying it will happen, just that it wouldn't even be that surprising given his talent, situation, and the QB throwing him the ball.

Do you guys realize what it would take for this to happen? Now, I know the following analysis will change based on his evolution as a player, his QB, and the offense that he is in. But consider the following:

Amendola has 7 career TD receptions out of 196 receptions coming into this season. That's a TD rate of 3.5%.
Welker had 37 career TD receptions out of 672 receptions during his time with New England. That's a TD rate of 5.5%.

Amendola has averaged 8.9 yards per reception in his career.
Welker averaged 11.1 yards per reception in his time with New England.

Let's just assume Amendola's numbers bump up to mirror Welker's time in New England. Per 100 catches, that would give Amendola 5.5 TD's and 1,110 yards. Now I'm only calculating based on .5 PPR (only leagues I play in - so there will be some adjustments needed), but a 100/5.5/1,100 statline would be good for 193 points - which would have placed him #18 in that format. With a full 1 PPR, he'd probably get bumped up to #14 or 15.

Now let's just assume that Amendola catches 110 passes, his TD % bumps up to 8.2%, and his yards per reception spike up to 12. A 110/9/1,320 statline in a .5 PPR league would be good for 241 points - which would have placed him #6 in that format. With a full 1 PPR, he'd probably get bumped up to # 3 or 4.

So basically, you are banking on Amendola to not only completely fulfill Welker's shoes, but to up Welker's old TD catch rate by 64%, and to increase his yards per reception by a full yard. Not to mention that Amendola's career marks fall WAY BELOW Welker's. And considering Amendola averaged a measley 10.4 yards per reception on Sunday, and didn't catch a TD despite Brady slinging it 52 times, I'm not exactly banking on Amendola becoming a top5 WR.

Not to mention, the dude can't stay healthy enough to put up a top5 season. Can he finish in the 8-15 range if he plays 16 games? Absolutely. But I'd bet he puts up a statline somewhere in the 90/1100/6 neighborhood.

All those stats comparing Welker and Amendola are irrelevant. Welker played most of his career with the best QB in the league and quite possibly the best ever. Amendola played most of his career with Sam Bradford. End of discussion...period. Had the roles been reversed, this conversation would be different.

[kmbryant09]

It's not even crazy though. I've already been on record saying that I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he outscored every single WR not named Calvin this year. Not saying it will happen, just that it wouldn't even be that surprising given his talent, situation, and the QB throwing him the ball.

Do you guys realize what it would take for this to happen? Now, I know the following analysis will change based on his evolution as a player, his QB, and the offense that he is in. But consider the following:

Amendola has 7 career TD receptions out of 196 receptions coming into this season. That's a TD rate of 3.5%.
Welker had 37 career TD receptions out of 672 receptions during his time with New England. That's a TD rate of 5.5%.

Amendola has averaged 8.9 yards per reception in his career.
Welker averaged 11.1 yards per reception in his time with New England.

Let's just assume Amendola's numbers bump up to mirror Welker's time in New England. Per 100 catches, that would give Amendola 5.5 TD's and 1,110 yards. Now I'm only calculating based on .5 PPR (only leagues I play in - so there will be some adjustments needed), but a 100/5.5/1,100 statline would be good for 193 points - which would have placed him #18 in that format. With a full 1 PPR, he'd probably get bumped up to #14 or 15.

Now let's just assume that Amendola catches 110 passes, his TD % bumps up to 8.2%, and his yards per reception spike up to 12. A 110/9/1,320 statline in a .5 PPR league would be good for 241 points - which would have placed him #6 in that format. With a full 1 PPR, he'd probably get bumped up to # 3 or 4.

So basically, you are banking on Amendola to not only completely fulfill Welker's shoes, but to up Welker's old TD catch rate by 64%, and to increase his yards per reception by a full yard. Not to mention that Amendola's career marks fall WAY BELOW Welker's. And considering Amendola averaged a measley 10.4 yards per reception on Sunday, and didn't catch a TD despite Brady slinging it 52 times, I'm not exactly banking on Amendola becoming a top5 WR.

Not to mention, the dude can't stay healthy enough to put up a top5 season. Can he finish in the 8-15 range if he plays 16 games? Absolutely. But I'd bet he puts up a statline somewhere in the 90/1100/6 neighborhood.

All those stats comparing Welker and Amendola are irrelevant. Welker played most of his career with the best QB in the league and quite possibly the best ever. Amendola played most of his career with Sam Bradford. End of discussion...period. Had the roles been reversed, this conversation would be different.

You're right. A player who has never topped 700 yards receiving or 3 TDs in a season automatically becomes better than the most prolific slot WR of our generation simply because of his QB. My bad.

[bigchiefbc]

All those stats comparing Welker and Amendola are irrelevant. Welker played most of his career with the best QB in the league and quite possibly the best ever. Amendola played most of his career with Sam Bradford. End of discussion...period. Had the roles been reversed, this conversation would be different.

You're right. A player who has never topped 700 yards receiving or 3 TDs in a season automatically becomes better than the most prolific slot WR of our generation simply because of his QB. My bad.

Welker in 2007 was no more accomplished than Amendola is now.

EDIT: Actually, I was wrong, Amendola is MORE established now than Welker was in 2007. Welker had only had one year with decent production (67/687/1TD in 2006). Amendola has had 2 years as good or better than that already (85/689/3 in 2010 and 63/666/3 in 10 games last year).

[WZA]

You're right. A player who has never topped 700 yards receiving or 3 TDs in a season automatically becomes better than the most prolific slot WR of our generation simply because of his QB. My bad.

Yeah, that's right. How did Welker do when he was in Miami without Brady throwing him the ball? Welker is the most prolific slot WR of our generation BECAUSE TOM BRADY...PERIOD. END. OF. STORY.

The concept of a WRs value/production being directly tied to his QB is not difficult to grasp. That is, unless it goes against your weak argument of comparing a player who had Sam Bradford as a QB and another who had Tom Brady. How did Fitz do when Kurt Warner retired? Google it.

Edit: now Welker has Manning as a QB. Just think if Terrell Pryor or Christian Ponder was throwing him the ball...

[WZA]

All those stats comparing Welker and Amendola are irrelevant. Welker played most of his career with the best QB in the league and quite possibly the best ever. Amendola played most of his career with Sam Bradford. End of discussion...period. Had the roles been reversed, this conversation would be different.

You're right. A player who has never topped 700 yards receiving or 3 TDs in a season automatically becomes better than the most prolific slot WR of our generation simply because of his QB. My bad.

Welker in 2007 was no more accomplished than Amendola is now.

Exactly...look up Welker's Miami stats. Even worse than Amendola.

[Chris_R]

Danny Amendola aggravated his groin injury in Sunday's game against the Bills, and is questionable to return.

Sep 8 - 2:41 PM

This is surprising. When you get guys like this on your team this is what you sign up for. I'm not any different because I have Murray in quite a few leagues, but it's just funny to me when people think you can't label people injury prone then the repeat offenders of the injury list are always the first to strike.

And yet no one is going to complain about the 20+ PPR fantasy points he got you today.

No doubt about it. There is production to be had from that offense and that position. But it isn't the greatest sign to me that he was already injured in training camp, then re-injured himself in his first game of the season. Everyone knows he's not very durable, that's why probably more then 10 times this thread someone gives his projection for 2013 and it's always prefaced by "if he stays healthy"...


He could, but he's far more of a risk for it to not happen then others.

[kmbryant09]

You're right. A player who has never topped 700 yards receiving or 3 TDs in a season automatically becomes better than the most prolific slot WR of our generation simply because of his QB. My bad.

Yeah, that's right. How did Welker do when he was in Miami without Brady throwing him the ball? Welker is the most prolific slot WR of our generation BECAUSE TOM BRADY...PERIOD. END. OF. STORY.

The concept of a WRs value/production being directly tied to his QB is not difficult to grasp. That is, unless it goes against your weak argument of comparing a player who had Sam Bradford as a QB and another who had Tom Brady. How did Fitz do when Kurt Warner retired? Google it.

Edit: now Welker has Manning as a QB. Just think if Terrell Pryor or Christian Ponder was throwing him the ball...

Do you think Amendola is better than Welker?

If your answer is yes, then I think that is moronic and I will back out of this discussion.

[Chris_R]

NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reports Danny Amendola (groin) is "almost certain" to miss Thursday night's game against the Jets.


Amendola wasn't spotted at Tuesday morning's walkthrough and is expected to be held out of Week 2 with the Patriots playing on just four days rest. With Amendola out, Julian Edelman will replace him in the slot and is a high-end WR2 against Jets. Kenbrell Thompkins should also continue to see plenty of targets. It's a massive downgrade to New England's offense, who will already be with out Shane Vereen (wrist). Zach Sudfeld is dealing with a hamstring injury and was limited in Monday's practice. The Patriots are still evaluating the exact severity of the oft-injured Amendola's muscle pull.
Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter
Sep 10 - 11:39 AM

I will say as a Vereen owner this upsets me the most. No Gronk, No Amendola, more RB touches, he was in store for a monster game. But as for Amendola, this is what you sign up for when he's on your roster.

[DJB]

Amendola simply can't stay healthy and it kills his value for me in my eyes.

[WZA]

You're right. A player who has never topped 700 yards receiving or 3 TDs in a season automatically becomes better than the most prolific slot WR of our generation simply because of his QB. My bad.

Yeah, that's right. How did Welker do when he was in Miami without Brady throwing him the ball? Welker is the most prolific slot WR of our generation BECAUSE TOM BRADY...PERIOD. END. OF. STORY.

The concept of a WRs value/production being directly tied to his QB is not difficult to grasp. That is, unless it goes against your weak argument of comparing a player who had Sam Bradford as a QB and another who had Tom Brady. How did Fitz do when Kurt Warner retired? Google it.

Edit: now Welker has Manning as a QB. Just think if Terrell Pryor or Christian Ponder was throwing him the ball...

Do you think Amendola is better than Welker?

If your answer is yes, then I think that is moronic and I will back out of this discussion.

Health issues aside...there really isn't much difference between the two talent wise. As I said before, Welker's success is related to Brady. All else equal, these guys are basically clones.

Also, you're pretty abrasive...no need for that. We simply disagree on a topic and you're throwing out insults.

[Water Buffalo]

Yeah, that's right. How did Welker do when he was in Miami without Brady throwing him the ball? Welker is the most prolific slot WR of our generation BECAUSE TOM BRADY...PERIOD. END. OF. STORY.

The concept of a WRs value/production being directly tied to his QB is not difficult to grasp. That is, unless it goes against your weak argument of comparing a player who had Sam Bradford as a QB and another who had Tom Brady. How did Fitz do when Kurt Warner retired? Google it.

Edit: now Welker has Manning as a QB. Just think if Terrell Pryor or Christian Ponder was throwing him the ball...

Do you think Amendola is better than Welker?

If your answer is yes, then I think that is moronic and I will back out of this discussion.

Health issues aside...there really isn't much difference between the two talent wise. As I said before, Welker's success is related to Brady. All else equal, these guys are basically clones.

Also, you're pretty abrasive...no need for that. We simply disagree on a topic and you're throwing out insults.

This is pretty much what I've been saying for the past year+. I personally don't see how they are any different talent wise. That's not to say Welker or Amendola aren't talented, I just think they are both very talented. If you actually watch Amendola play, you can tell he's cut from the same cloth as Welker. They are both high effort guys that run great routes, have great hands, and play the slot position ridiculously well. Does anyone actually think it was a coincidence that the Patriots specifically signed Amendola to be Welker's replacement?

[kmbryant09]

Health issues aside...there really isn't much difference between the two talent wise. As I said before, Welker's success is related to Brady. All else equal, these guys are basically clones.

Also, you're pretty abrasive...no need for that. We simply disagree on a topic and you're throwing out insults.

My apologies for sounding abrasive - I just took some offense after I put in the time and effort to research Amendola's stats and Welker's stats - as well as providing some real-example calculations....And then your response was THAT WASN'T WITH BRADY. END OF STORY. PERIOD.

But anyways, moving past the bickering - While I think Amendola and Welker are very similar from a physical stand point, Welker is extremely underrated with his foot speed, short-area quickness, and his knack for selling one route and running another. It's a very small intricacy, but he's the best in the biz at setting up defenders with hip movements, head movements, and little things of that nature. I think Amendola is GOOD at these things, I think Welker is GREAT at these things.

[kmbryant09]

And to expand on that - I just thought that saying Amendola would be a top3 WR is way overboard - something that belongs in the Bold Predictions thread.

I thought it was realistic, given a healthy 16 games, to expect 80-90% of Welker's production from Amendola - a solid WR2. Asking him to 100% replace his average statistics in New England was probably a bit optimistic, although I admit those numbers are/were within reach in sort of a best-case-scenario for Amendola. That would make him a low-end WR1. But to jump into the top 5 or top 3, or top 2? Like I said - a bit of a reach in my opinion, given that Welker's best year as the #2 WR in PPR leagues required him to up his average TD rate by 64%, set a career high in ypc by 1.9 yards, and to catch the 4th most passes in a season...EVER.

But as we are finding out already, Amendola likely won't be healthy enough to put up top5 numbers.

[WZA]

Health issues aside...there really isn't much difference between the two talent wise. As I said before, Welker's success is related to Brady. All else equal, these guys are basically clones.

Also, you're pretty abrasive...no need for that. We simply disagree on a topic and you're throwing out insults.

My apologies for sounding abrasive - I just took some offense after I put in the time and effort to research Amendola's stats and Welker's stats - as well as providing some real-example calculations....And then your response was THAT WASN'T WITH BRADY. END OF STORY. PERIOD.

But anyways, moving past the bickering - While I think Amendola and Welker are very similar from a physical stand point, Welker is extremely underrated with his foot speed, short-area quickness, and his knack for selling one route and running another. It's a very small intricacy, but he's the best in the biz at setting up defenders with hip movements, head movements, and little things of that nature. I think Amendola is GOOD at these things, I think Welker is GREAT at these things.

I guess I did come off as abrasive too...my apologies.

[kmbryant09]

Health issues aside...there really isn't much difference between the two talent wise. As I said before, Welker's success is related to Brady. All else equal, these guys are basically clones.

Also, you're pretty abrasive...no need for that. We simply disagree on a topic and you're throwing out insults.

My apologies for sounding abrasive - I just took some offense after I put in the time and effort to research Amendola's stats and Welker's stats - as well as providing some real-example calculations....And then your response was THAT WASN'T WITH BRADY. END OF STORY. PERIOD.

But anyways, moving past the bickering - While I think Amendola and Welker are very similar from a physical stand point, Welker is extremely underrated with his foot speed, short-area quickness, and his knack for selling one route and running another. It's a very small intricacy, but he's the best in the biz at setting up defenders with hip movements, head movements, and little things of that nature. I think Amendola is GOOD at these things, I think Welker is GREAT at these things.

I guess I did come off as abrasive too...my apologies.

Is this where we hug