Danny Amendola's Value

[Chris_R]

I'm glad I'm not the only sane one around here with regards to Amendola

I think expecting that type of production is dead on, but can you feel confident in him playing a majority of the season? 12-15 would be nice, but if it's 9-10 and he misses the fantasy playoffs it's not really worth it. He's a tough guy to get a read on, the production will be there, but I have no doubt in my mind he'll be injured. I'll give a guy like Nicks a pass because last year was the first year he was really affected by injuries but even he has 2 high end seasons on his resume. Amendola has zero high end seasons of that type of production, and the injury concerns. It'll be interesting to watch it play out, and if he can get 16 games he's a 100 reception guy, I'd just be afraid I'd be left with nothing come playoff time.

Why are you so certain that he's going to get injured though?

He has HAD injuries, yes, but are those injuries likely to be recurring? Broken collarbone - fully healed. Dislocated elbow - fully healed. Which one of these injuries is going to cause him future problems? Neither were to his lower body, and guys return from this type of stuff ALL the time. Simply because he's happened to have both of them happen to him in back-to-back seasons, he's now almost certain to miss future time?

I guess I just don't see the correlation between his specific past injuries and the likeliness of future injuries. Is it possible he gets injured in 2013? Absolutely, but the same can be said about literally any NFL player. I'm all for predicting the future as it pertains to fantasy stats, but the completely random chance of him being injured? I'll leave that one to the fantasy gods.

He just doesn't strike me as the most durable guy, not really because he suffered an injury like to happen again. 2 years in a row now he's missed extensive time due to injury, and if you look at his 4 years in the league it looks more likely he gets injured then plays 16 games. Once a guy gets hurt 2 seasons in a row, I don't think there is anything that guarantees me he gets hurt for the 3rd year in a row, but I'd be going with the odds that he does. Same for Demarco Murray who I also really like this year. Last 2 years for him also.


I don't know for sure he'll get injured, but I also don't think that anyone who owns him shouldn't be surprised if he gets "unlucky" and suffers an injury to miss the rest of the season. Some guys you just shouldn't be surprised about getting hurt, he's 1. I think he's capable of playing a full season, but everything has its odds. I'd be willing to wager he is one of the guys who has some sort of huge injury at some point, hopefully for owners sooner so he can be ready to go for the playoffs. Would you feel comfortable about starting Murray and Mathews as your two starting RB's this year even though they are 100% healthy and won't have any re-occuring injuries? That's kinda how I feel about Amendola, guys talented enough I'll gamble on their health but Amendola has largely been an average talent his entire career with decent stats, if he had shown me more thus far I'd feel better about the gamble.

[Water Buffalo]

Would you feel comfortable about starting Murray and Mathews as your two starting RB's this year even though they are 100% healthy and won't have any re-occuring injuries?

I'd be 100% confident starting either of these guys as my RB2 this year. I'd also be 100% confident having Amendola as a starter this year. Hell, I'm so confident in Amendola, I'd be confident enough in his talent and situation that I'd be 100% confident if he was my WR1 this year in PPR scoring.

[Chris_R]

Would you feel comfortable about starting Murray and Mathews as your two starting RB's this year even though they are 100% healthy and won't have any re-occuring injuries?

I'd be 100% confident starting either of these guys as my RB2 this year. I'd also be 100% confident having Amendola as a starter this year. Hell, I'm so confident in Amendola, I'd be confident enough in his talent and situation that I'd be 100% confident if he was my WR1 this year in PPR scoring.

I could start 1 of those backs, but both I couldn't even though nothing says they will get hurt going forward. I guess if you are that confident in Amendola that makes sense, I just can't buy in to that extent for a guy whose best seasons were 600 receiving yards and sprinkled in with other injuries elsewhere. I am a gambler and love to project going forward, but there are some risk about him I can't shake in terms of looking at him as a building block, which is what a WR1 is.

[Euclid]

I think expecting that type of production is dead on, but can you feel confident in him playing a majority of the season? 12-15 would be nice, but if it's 9-10 and he misses the fantasy playoffs it's not really worth it. He's a tough guy to get a read on, the production will be there, but I have no doubt in my mind he'll be injured. I'll give a guy like Nicks a pass because last year was the first year he was really affected by injuries but even he has 2 high end seasons on his resume. Amendola has zero high end seasons of that type of production, and the injury concerns. It'll be interesting to watch it play out, and if he can get 16 games he's a 100 reception guy, I'd just be afraid I'd be left with nothing come playoff time.

Why are you so certain that he's going to get injured though?

He has HAD injuries, yes, but are those injuries likely to be recurring? Broken collarbone - fully healed. Dislocated elbow - fully healed. Which one of these injuries is going to cause him future problems? Neither were to his lower body, and guys return from this type of stuff ALL the time. Simply because he's happened to have both of them happen to him in back-to-back seasons, he's now almost certain to miss future time?

I guess I just don't see the correlation between his specific past injuries and the likeliness of future injuries. Is it possible he gets injured in 2013? Absolutely, but the same can be said about literally any NFL player. I'm all for predicting the future as it pertains to fantasy stats, but the completely random chance of him being injured? I'll leave that one to the fantasy gods.

He just doesn't strike me as the most durable guy, not really because he suffered an injury like to happen again. 2 years in a row now he's missed extensive time due to injury, and if you look at his 4 years in the league it looks more likely he gets injured then plays 16 games. Once a guy gets hurt 2 seasons in a row, I don't think there is anything that guarantees me he gets hurt for the 3rd year in a row, but I'd be going with the odds that he does. Same for Demarco Murray who I also really like this year. Last 2 years for him also.


I don't know for sure he'll get injured, but I also don't think that anyone who owns him shouldn't be surprised if he gets "unlucky" and suffers an injury to miss the rest of the season. Some guys you just shouldn't be surprised about getting hurt, he's 1. I think he's capable of playing a full season, but everything has its odds. I'd be willing to wager he is one of the guys who has some sort of huge injury at some point, hopefully for owners sooner so he can be ready to go for the playoffs. Would you feel comfortable about starting Murray and Mathews as your two starting RB's this year even though they are 100% healthy and won't have any re-occuring injuries? That's kinda how I feel about Amendola, guys talented enough I'll gamble on their health but Amendola has largely been an average talent his entire career with decent stats, if he had shown me more thus far I'd feel better about the gamble.

I think this idea was pretty well massaged in the Gronk thread. We just don't know what injury-proneness is. We don't know if it exists, and even if we could show it does exist, we don't know any mechanisms that cause it. It's a claim that needs support, and right now it doesn't have any. People make lots of claims, for instance "Players have longer careers now because of PEDs/nutrition/rehabilitation". It sounds like it makes sense, but unless someone gives some support to it, it has no weight. The problem is 1) NFL player data is limited 2) It's going to be difficult to write a method that supports the claim. 2 can be overcome, but 1 probably cannot, since we will never have the data we need which is private.

[Chris_R]

Danny Amendola aggravated his groin injury in Sunday's game against the Bills, and is questionable to return.

Sep 8 - 2:41 PM

This is surprising. When you get guys like this on your team this is what you sign up for. I'm not any different because I have Murray in quite a few leagues, but it's just funny to me when people think you can't label people injury prone then the repeat offenders of the injury list are always the first to strike.

[Water Buffalo]

Danny Amendola aggravated his groin injury in Sunday's game against the Bills, and is questionable to return.

Sep 8 - 2:41 PM

This is surprising. When you get guys like this on your team this is what you sign up for. I'm not any different because I have Murray in quite a few leagues, but it's just funny to me when people think you can't label people injury prone then the repeat offenders of the injury list are always the first to strike.

And yet no one is going to complain about the 20+ PPR fantasy points he got you today.

[bigchiefbc]

Danny Amendola aggravated his groin injury in Sunday's game against the Bills, and is questionable to return.

Sep 8 - 2:41 PM

This is surprising. When you get guys like this on your team this is what you sign up for. I'm not any different because I have Murray in quite a few leagues, but it's just funny to me when people think you can't label people injury prone then the repeat offenders of the injury list are always the first to strike.

And then he came right back in the game and caught 7 more balls after that. You can tell Brady loves this guy already, he even talked about how tough Amendola was at his post-game press conference.

[WZA]

If he stays healthy...Amendola will be the WR3 this year.

AJ
Calvin
Amendola

I know...I'm frickin' crazy, but I'm putting it out there.

[Water Buffalo]

If he stays healthy...Amendola will be the WR3 this year.

AJ
Calvin
Amendola

I know...I'm frickin' crazy, but I'm putting it out there.

It's not even crazy though. I've already been on record saying that I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he outscored every single WR not named Calvin this year. Not saying it will happen, just that it wouldn't even be that surprising given his talent, situation, and the QB throwing him the ball.

[dlf_jules]

Danny Amendola aggravated his groin injury in Sunday's game against the Bills, and is questionable to return.
Sep 8 - 2:41 PM

This is surprising. When you get guys like this on your team this is what you sign up for. I'm not any different because I have Murray in quite a few leagues, but it's just funny to me when people think you can't label people injury prone then the repeat offenders of the injury list are always the first to strike.

Good thing I benched him for Iron Man Roddy White.

Listen, I'm not 100% confident that no one is injury prone. But I am 100% confident that humans (especially the type who do things like play fantasy football) are really good at seeing patterns where none exist, or at least seeing stronger patterns than actually exist.

[kmbryant09]

If he stays healthy...Amendola will be the WR3 this year.

AJ
Calvin
Amendola

I know...I'm frickin' crazy, but I'm putting it out there.

It's not even crazy though. I've already been on record saying that I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he outscored every single WR not named Calvin this year. Not saying it will happen, just that it wouldn't even be that surprising given his talent, situation, and the QB throwing him the ball.

Do you guys realize what it would take for this to happen? Now, I know the following analysis will change based on his evolution as a player, his QB, and the offense that he is in. But consider the following:

Amendola has 7 career TD receptions out of 196 receptions coming into this season. That's a TD rate of 3.5%.
Welker had 37 career TD receptions out of 672 receptions during his time with New England. That's a TD rate of 5.5%.

Amendola has averaged 8.9 yards per reception in his career.
Welker averaged 11.1 yards per reception in his time with New England.

Let's just assume Amendola's numbers bump up to mirror Welker's time in New England. Per 100 catches, that would give Amendola 5.5 TD's and 1,110 yards. Now I'm only calculating based on .5 PPR (only leagues I play in - so there will be some adjustments needed), but a 100/5.5/1,100 statline would be good for 193 points - which would have placed him #18 in that format. With a full 1 PPR, he'd probably get bumped up to #14 or 15.

Now let's just assume that Amendola catches 110 passes, his TD % bumps up to 8.2%, and his yards per reception spike up to 12. A 110/9/1,320 statline in a .5 PPR league would be good for 241 points - which would have placed him #6 in that format. With a full 1 PPR, he'd probably get bumped up to # 3 or 4.

So basically, you are banking on Amendola to not only completely fulfill Welker's shoes, but to up Welker's old TD catch rate by 64%, and to increase his yards per reception by a full yard. Not to mention that Amendola's career marks fall WAY BELOW Welker's. And considering Amendola averaged a measley 10.4 yards per reception on Sunday, and didn't catch a TD despite Brady slinging it 52 times, I'm not exactly banking on Amendola becoming a top5 WR.

Not to mention, the dude can't stay healthy enough to put up a top5 season. Can he finish in the 8-15 range if he plays 16 games? Absolutely. But I'd bet he puts up a statline somewhere in the 90/1100/6 neighborhood.

[dlf_jules]

If he stays healthy...Amendola will be the WR3 this year.

AJ
Calvin
Amendola

I know...I'm frickin' crazy, but I'm putting it out there.

It's not even crazy though. I've already been on record saying that I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he outscored every single WR not named Calvin this year. Not saying it will happen, just that it wouldn't even be that surprising given his talent, situation, and the QB throwing him the ball.

Do you guys realize what it would take for this to happen?

***

Not to mention, the dude can't stay healthy enough to put up a top5 season. Can he finish in the 8-15 range if he plays 16 games? Absolutely. But I'd bet he puts up a statline somewhere in the 90/1100/6 neighborhood.

I know you don't have easy access to ppr data, but Wes Welker was the #1 ppr WR in 2011 (#2 to Calvin if you count Week 17). In fact, Welker could have missed two average* games and still finished as the #2 WR that year. No one's guaranteeing a top-2 finish for Amendola, but it's well within the range of possibilities.

*Based on ppg.

[kmbryant09]

It's not even crazy though. I've already been on record saying that I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he outscored every single WR not named Calvin this year. Not saying it will happen, just that it wouldn't even be that surprising given his talent, situation, and the QB throwing him the ball.

Do you guys realize what it would take for this to happen?

***

Not to mention, the dude can't stay healthy enough to put up a top5 season. Can he finish in the 8-15 range if he plays 16 games? Absolutely. But I'd bet he puts up a statline somewhere in the 90/1100/6 neighborhood.

I know you don't have easy access to ppr data, but Wes Welker was the #1 ppr WR in 2011 (#2 to Calvin if you count Week 17). In fact, Welker could have missed two average* games and still finished as the #2 WR that year. No one's guaranteeing a top-2 finish for Amendola, but it's well within the range of possibilities.

*Based on ppg.

That's sort of my point.

Welker set a personal career-high in 2011 with 12.9 yards per catch (1.4 ypc higher than his 2nd best year), had a TD rate of 7.4% (compared to his NE average of 5.5%), and caught 122 passes (the 4th most in a season EVER). Do you expect Amendola to replicate those stats? Because like you said, that's what it will take for a slot WR to finish as a top3 WR.

Not to mention that since 2011 - Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Demaryious Thomas, and A.J. Green have emerged as studs who figure to have much better odds for a top3 finish than Amendola does (as well as Marshall's emergence into that elite category with Cutler). Not to mention that Brady threw for a career high in yards that 2011 season. Not to mention that, despite what some Amendola-owners think, Amendola isn't quite as talented as Welker is (not really a knock on Amendola, just a compliment to Welker).

I just think we are going a bit over-board with Amendola right now. I don't see why we can't just call this situation like it is. We have a talented slot-WR playing with a great QB in a system that generates targets for the slot-WR. On the other hand, the system produces high-volume, low-TD's, and low-yards per catch for the slot-WR. And Amendola is taking over for Welker - so I'd say look at what Welker's produced in his 6 years in the system, average it out, and take about 90% of that production, and count on that for Amendola - IF he stays healthy.

I think owners should be more focused on trying to get legit WR 2 numbers from a HEALTHY Amendola this season (in other words, just hope he stays healthy) rather than projecting him as a top5 WR. If he's projected as a top5 WR, why isn't Welker? The only thing that's changed for Welker is that he's in a team with more mouths to feed than he's used to. But if week 1 was any indication, there are plenty of balls to go around, and his TD numbers could spike to offset any concern around a slightly-diminished role.

[dlf_jules]

Welker set a personal career-high in 2011 with 12.9 yards per catch (1.4 ypc higher than his 2nd best year), had a TD rate of 7.4% (compared to his NE average of 5.5%), and caught 122 passes (the 4th most in a season EVER). Do you expect Amendola to replicate those stats? Because like you said, that's what it will take for a slot WR to finish as a top3 WR.

No, that's what it took for a slot WR to finish as the #1 overall WR. Welker could have had a TD rate of 0.0% and still finished #2.

Not to mention that since 2011 - Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Demaryious Thomas, and A.J. Green have emerged as studs who figure to have much better odds for a top3 finish than Amendola does (as well as Marshall's emergence into that elite category with Cutler).

I fully agree with you here. There just weren't as many elite WRs in 2011. But I don't really care about "Top _ WR" -- though I recognize that's what we're talking about here. I think it's reasonable to believe Amendola can put up ~20 ppg, and that's what matters.

I'd say look at what Welker's produced in his 6 years in the system, average it out, and take about 90% of that production, and count on that for Amendola - IF he stays healthy.

I don't see why you're taking 90% of Welker's average (including the Matt Cassel year). If you think Welker's that much more talented than Dola, I disagree. Plus, Brady's attempts went up markedly in 2011 and 2012, and I don't see any reason to think they revert to earlier levels. If we assume Welker and Dola are equal talents, Dola should get a bump from Welker's average, given the Pats' 2013 situation.

I think owners should be more focused on trying to get legit WR 2 numbers from a HEALTHY Amendola this season (in other words, just hope he stays healthy) rather than projecting him as a top5 WR. If he's projected as a top5 WR, why isn't Welker? The only thing that's changed for Welker is that he's in a team with more mouths to feed than he's used to. But if week 1 was any indication, there are plenty of balls to go around, and his TD numbers could spike to offset any concern around a slightly-diminished role.

We get it. You don't think he'll stay healthy, and I admit you're not really going out on a limb there. But at Amendola's price, the risk is factored in -- too much so, in my opinion.

[bigcsr67]

If he stays healthy...Amendola will be the WR3 this year.

AJ
Calvin
Amendola

I know...I'm frickin' crazy, but I'm putting it out there.

That would be nice since AJ and Danny are my starters in my most important league!