A microcosm of a larger point: Montee Ball vs. Knile Davis

[TheOracle]

Who do you have- the productive college back with putrid measurables who may or may not have benefited greatly from his system, or the guy who can ate lightning and crapped thunder at the combine but can't stay healthy?

[henry1jg]

I'll be the first to admit that I'm skeptical of Knile, but I'm not a Montee Ball fan. I don't like the workload, I don't like the combine numbers, and what I saw while watching his cut ups were just unimpressive to me. I do not claim to be an expert, nor do I have any amazing stats to hide behind, I just dont believe in Montee. I guess I'm just a hater. In all fairness though, I am on record of saying hat I would not draft Montee, even before his awful combine.

As for Knile, I'm still not sold, & I believe he & Montee will have very similar ADP's. Obviously the combine really brought Knile back into the limelight, but if I had to take one, I would rather spend my late 1st on a guy with Knile's athleticism.

[dlf_jacobf]

The workload arguement doesn't really hold any water for me. In fact, it shows to me that he has superior durability. Take a look back at college workloads for a minute:

Ray Rice - 910 carries in 3 seasons
Peterson - 747 carries in 3 seasons
Steven Jackson - 743 carries in 3 seasons
McCoy - 584 carries in 2 seasons

Ball's 924 carries in four seasons is less per season that all of those. Give me the guy that produced and has shown he can stay healthy while being a bell cow.

[BPP]

Montee Ball, and I don't think its even in the same ballpark. He's produced and shown he is durable and can carry the load.

[lukeb]

Can I say neither? Haha not a fan of either RB. Ball I guess if forced to choose.

[thriftyrocker]

Any RB has upside if presented the right situation, but situation-neutral I would pick Davis.

I don't think it will be situation-neutral. I think Ball will be a higher pick by a couple rounds with a clearer path to relevance, which will make it closer.

[oppy]

I'd pick Davis... for RBs especially I have more faith in their athleticism and physical attributes than their on-field production. Granted vision and running ability are very important, but if Davis gets in a good spot behind an NFL line with coaching that lets him prosper his talent is going to do great things, which can't be said for Ball. Ball will probably be a serviceable runner but he's never going to be a top performer unless he really does see 20+ carries a game, and that's incredibly unlikely in the current NFL despite his college track record.

[Spinkso]

Neither are my type of RB, but I'd go with Ball. I like his vision and how patient he is. Knile Davis has a checkered injury history and a fumbling issue that is as bad as it gets. I think Davis is just a workout warrior.

[BigB]

Not a fan of either, but if I had to pick I'd go with Ball. I didn't like Davis that much to begin with, and I think for all his measurables there's too many things that make me shy away from him. He seemed to run last year more to not get hurt than to produce. If he's doing that in college, what am I getting out of him when he's in his contract year? For all his ability I don't trust Davis to always give me 100%, and that in itself would keep me away.

Wisconsin backs have always tended to be somewhat, um, underwhelming in the NFL. So Ball immediately has that working against him. While I don't think he becomes anything close to a RB1, I could see a mid to low end RB2 as his ceiling, with goal line/power back in a RBBC as his floor. The thing I liked about Ball was that he had a lot of criticisms after 2011 and seemed to actually work to try to improve them. That's what I want from my newly drafted RB, an urge to actually get better.

Again, I don't particularly like either, but if I'm picking 1 I'm picking Ball.

[dawgs4life]

Talent should always win out. But the injuries are worrisome. I know someone in my rb heavy league will probably draft him in late first based on talent. I would go around 2.4 or so.
As for ball, the pounding he took for 4 years is worrisome. Peterson is the exception to every rule, ball is no Peterson. Other than rice, not too many other back take that many carries in college and make it in the pros. Look at Kevin Smith, talented college back but got beat up. Can't stay healthy in the pros.
Besides when was the last time a Wisconsin-over used tailback did anything in the NFL

[BPP]

Talent should always win out.

The more talented RB is winning this poll.

[Mangelo]

I don't think college usage means much. Kevin smith set the record for college carries, but that class was unique in that Matt forte and ray rice weren't that far behind and they turned out just fine.

[TommyL31]

I'm going to be contradictory in a way. I voted for Montee Ball because I expect him to be drafted higher both in the NFL and in fantasy leagues. He's more of a known commodity and, if given the opportunity I expect him to have a higher floor.

That being said he's not dynamic in my opinion and has a much lower ceiling than Knile Davis. I expect it's much more likely for me to own Davis by drafting him in the mid second round than Montee Ball who I expect to go in the mid to late first.

[Julio]

A better question would be, would Montee Ball lose his starting job to Dennis Johnson?

[Cy23]

I'm not high on Ball. I don't see anything truly special, so unless he gets drafted high and touted as the next Doug Martin, I won't be interested unless he falls to me at 1.08 and there is no clear alternative.

That said, I am not sure what to think about Davis. I typically choose RB based on talent, and I think he has the athleticism to be dominant, but staying healthy is a concern. As others mentioned, if he is drafted late or to a bad team, I don't like his short term opportunity, and I don't want to be waiting 2-3 years for relevance.

That said, I've been consistent in valuing Lattimore despite the injuries, so I would pick Davis over Ball. Hopefully he comes with a cheaper price tag too.