Kenny Britt Contrarian View

[dm1129]

I believe it was Rothschild who said: “Buy when there’s blood in the street.” I know I am going to get a lot of grief for saying this, but I think everyone should strongly consider trading for Britt.

I traded for Britt two days ago. Why? Here is my reasoning:

His value is at an all time low. I have read comments in several forums and it seems to be a universal opinion that he is a bum, worthless, etc.... This latest incident seems to possibly be overblown. Yes what he did was stupid. But from the reports I have read, there was no altercation, no resisting arrest, nothing that would indicate he was belligerent. It is possible that he simply did not realize he was legally drunk. None of us were there that night, so we do not know. It seems that public opinion has already given him a career death sentence. Yes, I know he should be more aware because of his history and simply not drive at all if drinking, but he is still only 23 years old. He is younger than AJ Green! The knee injury is a legitimate concern, however the ability to come back with state of the art medical treatment is very realistic as more and more players are able to fully recover. If you look at what he did on the field in the latter part of 2010 and the way he started last season, he has a legitimate shot at being a top 5 receiver for years to come. With Jake Locker's arm, the potential is very real. So I am more than happy to take a flyer on Britt in a Dynasty situation while the masses continue to dump on him.

[Rustyram78]

What did you give to get him?

[ccj]

Also curious what the trade was. I don't disagree, but think the time to strike might be after his suspension is announced (I expect one based on his history).

[dm1129]

Sorry, I should have included this in original post.

I traded Garcon & 3.05 for Britt. I am in a 12 team PPR IDP league.

[xlote]

Sorry, I should have included this in original post.

I traded Garcon & 3.05 for Britt. I am in a 12 team PPR IDP league.

I have no problem with people trading for Britt if they're willing to take on the risk. And I agree this is a good time to buy him low. I wouldn't have made the trade you made as I view it as too much. The key is buying llooowww.

Which brings us to Britt owners (of which you are now one). IMO they should part with him for any reasonable deal, but otherwise hold him because his value can only go up.

[KMA]

I would be willing to trade Chad Johnson for Britt.

[Mangelo]

It's definitely time to buy if people think Pierre garçon is an overpay

[RobertBobson]

rofl agreed

[gameaholica]

It's definitely time to buy if people think Pierre garçon is an overpay

Agreed. I am down on Britt, but an owner insisted I take Britt instead of Cruz in a trade, who am I to argue?

I gave: Wells and Mendenhall
I received: Demarius Thomas, Britt, 2012 2nd round pick, 2012 4th round pick, 2013 2nd round pick.

[xlote]

It's definitely time to buy if people think Pierre garçon is an overpay

Go ahead, buy Britt for ~Garcon, and watch him be suspended or hurt all the time. That's not for me, but if it floats your boat - go for it.

[xlote]

By the way, here are the 3 year career stats for Britt vs Cruz last year.

.............Games.........Receptions.......Yards......yd/rec.......TDs
Britt.........31................101.............1765........17.5.........15
Cruz.........16.................82..............1536........18.7.........9


:cheers:

[teal]

In PPR Garcon was the 19th best WR last year; how is trading a 26-year old who just put up 70/950/6 with no QBs last year and who will be catching passes from RGIII next year not overpay for Britt at this point? Solid WR2 with low WR1 upside.

If you can get Britt for late 1st or 2nd round pick value I'd say take it as a high-upside lottery ticket. I'm more worried about the multiple knee injuries than his off field troubles because he is still young enough to get his head on straight.....now, if only his kneecap would stay on straight....

[dm1129]

In PPR Garcon was the 19th best WR last year; how is trading a 26-year old who just put up 70/950/6 with no QBs last year and who will be catching passes from RGIII next year not overpay for Britt at this point? Solid WR2 with low WR1 upside.

If you can get Britt for late 1st or 2nd round pick value I'd say take it as a high-upside lottery ticket. I'm more worried about the multiple knee injuries than his off field troubles because he is still young enough to get his head on straight.....now, if only his kneecap would stay on straight....

Lol, easy. It's called evaluating talent.

1. Garcon has never played as the #1WR before. Now he will be up against the opposing team's top CB and/or double coverage every week. Look at the #1 CBs just in the NFC East alone now with the addition of Claiborne and the return of Amukamara.
2. Washington has several options in the passing game, Garcon will not see a large increase in his targets. He was #8 in the league with 134 targets last year, he might not even get that many going forward.
3. Garcon had a 3.7 YPA in weeks 9-17 last year when going against #2 CBs.
4. Garcon had 3 of his touchdowns and over 210 yards on 3 plays where there was a blown coverage or officials missed the call. Look at his game logs from last season, the 3 good games he had were the games these plays took place.

So for me, Garcon's talent/production is interchangeable with at least 15-20 other WRs. Before I made the trade, I asked myself if Britt never played another down in the NFL, would I be able to replace Garcon's numbers? The answer is an easy yes.

[xlote]

By the way, here are the 3 year career stats for Britt vs Garcon.

.............Games.........Receptions.......Yards......yd/rec.......TDs
Britt.........31................101.............1765........17.5.........15
Garcon......44................184.............2496........13.6.........16

And here is Reggie Wayne vs Garcon for last year only:

.............Games.........Receptions.......Yards......yd/rec.......TDs
Wayne.......16.................75..............960........12.8..........4
Garcon.......16.................70..............947........13.5..........6

Garcon's stats have improved every year, even last year when he essentially pulled equal to Wayne. He's not a splashy guy like Britt, who is a special talent, but he shows up, he's consistent. I just don't believe Britt's future will be better than his past. Garcon has out-produced him in all categories except yards/rec. Do you think Britt's numbers the next 3 years will improve on the last three? Jahvid Best is a special talent as well. Do you have him on all your teams? How much do you value him?

:duel:

[dm1129]

By the way, here are the 3 year career stats for Britt vs Garcon.

.............Games.........Receptions.......Yards......yd/rec.......TDs
Britt.........31................101.............1765........17.5.........15
Garcon......44................184.............2496........13.6.........16

And here is Reggie Wayne vs Garcon for last year only:

.............Games.........Receptions.......Yards......yd/rec.......TDs
Wayne.......16.................75..............960........12.8..........4
Garcon.......16.................70..............947........13.5..........6

Garcon's stats have improved every year, even last year when he essentially pulled equal to Wayne. He's not a splashy guy like Britt, who is a special talent, but he shows up, he's consistent. I just don't believe Britt's future will be better than his past. Garcon has out-produced him in all categories except yards/rec. Do you think Britt's numbers the next 3 years will improve on the last three? Jahvid Best is a special talent as well. Do you have him on all your teams? How much do you value him?

:duel:

To put up stats showing number of games, receptions, touchdowns without context is an over simplification. For most of his career, Garcon had a guy named Peyton Manning throwing the ball to him. Garcon was playing #2 while Wayne was playing #1. In the second half of 2010, Britt who he was 21 years old at the time, averaged just under 100 yards/game with 7 TDs. This was accomplished while playing the #1 spot with Vince Young/Kerry Collins throwing the ball. In the first 2 games last year with Hasselbeck throwing the ball, he had over 270 yards and 3 TDs. In the third game, he was injured. I said in my original post that the injury is a legitimate concern. The comparison to Jahvid Best is a non-starter. Best has concussions, Britt has a knee injury. There is a treatment plan for knee injuries. Is it a given that he will be the same? No, but there is a real possibility that he can be. In addition, Jake Locker will likely be the starter at some point going forward. There are literally only a handful of #1 WRs in the league who can dominate even when defenses make it their goal to stop them. Britt has shown that ability. Lastly, Garcon's production is REPLACEABLE. If Britt never plays again, I can replace Garcon's production.