Boom/Bust Players

[MFundercover]

In my experience the best teams make the playoffs, then the team that hits the most lucky scores wins championships. I feel I have a much better chance of making the playoffs with a consistent scoring roster. I don't care if I have the highest scoring team in week 6, I just want the win. I feel boom/bust players are about luck. That is not how I create rosters.

It's not only "luck", it's a legitimate strategy. You can cross your t's and dot your i's but you can't account for the element of randomness in the game.

And like I said, if you have quality players the boom weeks will carry the bust weeks. And having a few consistent guys in your flex and an every week >20 point qb are crucial for this build. Making the playoffs has never been an issue for me with this strategy. It doesn't guarantee a title (nothing does) but I do feel like it gives you the best chance mathematically speaking.

[sloth8u]

i think we have a couple different ideas of "boom/bust" types of players being discussed here. Maybe im wrong, but some are talking about set and forget starters and others are talking about tempting starters, and others are talking about guys you start in a pinch.

[sloth8u]

I categorize players who have the same snap count week to week but have a wide variance in fantasy points into two groups-
Big play guys like Lockett, Mike Williams or MVS (Aiyuk may be in this group too)
Low target/catch but TD dependent players

How do you deal with starting these kinds of players? What factors do you consider whether to start/bench them?

I'll be willing start/acquire him if I can start 3 RBs if he's a RB, or 4 or more WRs if a receiver. I'm more accepting of high variable TEs, but if i can only start 1 without an opportunity to flex another, I'm less forgiving.

I've found they've been easier to acquire in trades, but hard to trade away. In that sense, they're like roster cloggers, just productive ones. In leagues with shorter rosters, I shy away from getting them, but deeper leagues/starting lineups, I'm less concerned.

How do you weigh the dynasty value of high-variance players?

if its me... i dont think deciding between lockett, williams vs mvs, aiyuk (etc), is a very tough decision when it comes to "whom to start". In general, im trying to win. im taking the consistent guys every time. Targets/opportunities are the only way to produce the maximum points. Im not going to pass up a guy getting 6-10 opportunities for a guy getting 3-6. I tend to be a buyer of these high end boom or bust types. My last few roster spots are reserved for the lower end guys, in hopes that they eventually move up as the others retire or i trade away.

In terms of acquiring these types of players....everyone has a price. As you know, values fluctuate. I try to buy guys like this for a 2nd or lower when the opportunity presents itself. Maybe even try to package them or add a 1st and move up to a better asset if my team is in a good spot. As you mentioned, there isn't typically much of a market for these types of guys. Contenders could use them as a last start or depth piece....but arent going to break up their squad for that. Rebuilds really aren't interested unless they believe there just missing a piece, but they certainly are not likely to give up a top 5 pick.

[Jigga94]

i think we have a couple different ideas of "boom/bust" types of players being discussed here. Maybe im wrong, but some are talking about set and forget starters and others are talking about tempting starters, and others are talking about guys you start in a pinch.

Yup. There's different levels to boom or bust. A while back people were saying Tyreek was boom or bust, which was just spun from him being able to drop 30+ at ease. He's still a weekly starter and his bust weeks aren't any worse than others.

When I think of boom or bust it's generally between tempting starters and the deep league play. Desean Jackson, MVS, Slayton, etc. Someone who has the ability to house a long TD but someone who could also give you a doughnut.

Generally, I think if you have to rely on some of these players for more than a few weeks, your team probably isn't doing so well. But, the same goes for high floor/low ceiling plays.

On my competitive teams, the biggest boom/bust player in my eyes is Amari but he's still a pretty solid starter/flex. I just think there's a lot of variance with him

[MFundercover]

I'm really not sure how anyone would be confused about wanting a Desean or MVS over a set and forget starter. I already went over this with the Evans/Allen comparison.