Rookie WR Production 2021

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I started a thread last year about the importance of rookie production and updated it weekly so we could keep track of which rookie WR's were buys and which were sells. I plan to do the same thing this year. Here is the Week 16 post to round out the season.

All the data is listed below. If you don't want to read, the main takeaways are;
1) Rookie receiving YPG is very, very important. The higher the better, with a sharp drop-off in quality around the mid-40s for some reason.
2) PFF Grades are somewhat important. Above 80 and below 60 are telling.
3) A player that breaks out for 1k receiving yards at any point in their career is likely to do it again. Find undervalued players that have broken out for 1k yards (Some recent examples would be mike williams, brandin cooks, tyler boyd).


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Update For Week 5

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
90% Good or better
Ja'Marr Chase [91.2]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
57-69% Good or better
DeVonta Smith [62.8]

47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
38% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Kadarius Toney [56.2]
Rondale Moore [54.0]


--------------------

Less than 47
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Jaylen Waddle [46]
Amon-Ra St. Brown [36]
Terrace Marshall Jr. [21]
Nico Collins [20]
Elijah Moore [17]
Anthony Schwartz [14]
Dyami Brown [13]
Trinity Benson [11]
Josh Palmer [10]

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*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample.
*Minimum of 9 games played.
--------------------------------------------------

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Full Cheat Sheet

100% - 100+ Rookie Receptions
90% - 67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
83% - 1000+ Rookie Receiving Yardage
70% - 70-99 Rookie Receptions
52% - 2nd or 3rd Year Breakout
50% - 57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
45% - 4th or 5th Year Breakout
44% - 900-999 Rookie Reception Yards
42% - 60-69 Rookie Receptions
38% - 47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
36% - 750-899 Rookie Receiving Yardage

Notes:
1) I've noticed that higher YPR paired with rookie receptions for the "Rookie Receptions" percentiles is typically better than a lower YPR.
2) I can't remember if I included the initial 1k yard receiving season in the "2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th year breakout" percentiles. I think I did. So it's likely that a player who breaks out for 1k yards at any point in their career is only likely to then go on for at least 2 more such seasons for the percentiles I gave, not 3 like the rookie WRs.
3) Rookie YPG is the best indicator so if you only want to focus on one thing I would focus on that.


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1995-2015
9+ Games played
Hit = 3+ 1k yard seasons
Good = 3+ 750+ yard seasons

Rookie Yards per Game
[Rookie PFF Receiving Grade in Brackets]

67+

Hits (9)
OBJ [91.2]
Boldin
Moss
Glenn
Colston [77.5]
Julio Jones [69.0]
AJG [74.5]
Mike Evans [84]
Keenan Allen [86.4]

Good

Busts(1)
Michael Clayton

Stud Hit Rate - 90%
Good or better Hit Rate – 90%
Bust Hit Rate – 10%

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57-66

Hits (7)
Cooper [71.1]
Galloway
Bowe [81.2]
Andre Johnson
Keyshawn Johnson
TY Hilton [65.9]
Desean Jackson [69.8]

Good (1)
Kennison

Mediocre (2)(also counted as bust)
Roy Williams
TB Mike Williams [72.7]

Busts 4)
Royal [73.2]
Kevin Johnson
Watkins [69.0]
Anthony Armstrong


Stud Hit Rate – 50%
Good or better Hit Rate – 57%
Bust Hit Rate – 43%

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47-56

Hits (11)
Stefon Diggs [78.9]
Allen Robinson [68.2]
Brandin Cooks [68.1]
Marvin Harrison
Santonio Holmes [78.2]
Calvin Johnson [74.3]
DeAndre Hopkins [69.0]
Torry Holt
Larry Fitzgerald
Jarvis Landry [77.2]
Mike Wallace [67.9]

Good (9)
Michael Crabtree [70.6]
Hakeem Nicks [74.4]
Chris Chambers
Frank Sanders
Lee Evans
Torrey Smith [67.7]
Jeremy Maclin [69.4]
Braylon Edwards
Doug Baldwin [80.4]

Mediocre (2)
Jordan Matthews [72.8]
Percy Harvin [83.4]

Busts (7)
Martavis Bryant [74.7]
Justin Blackmon [64.3]
Chris Sanders
Josh Gordon [68.1]
Keary Colbert
Denarius Moore [73.5]
Michael Westbrook


Stud Hit Rate – 38%
Good or better Hit Rate – 69%
Bust Hit Rate – 31%


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37-46

Studs (3)
Muhsin Muhammad
Greg Jennings [62.2]
Darrell Jackson

Good (7)
Tyler Lockett [76.4]
Antonio Bryant
Wayne Chrebet
James Jones [61.4]
Robert Woods [62.3]
Jamison Crowder [69.4]
Deion Branch

Busts (31)
Chris Givens [70.3]
Rod Gardner
Terrance Williams [64.9]
Donte’ Stallworth
Sylvester Morris
Donnie Avery [72.8]
Troy Edwards
Oronde Gadsden
Greg Little [57.5]
Anthony Gonzalez [76.4]
Kenny Britt [75.1]
John Brown [69.4]
Aaron Dobson [62.6]
Tony Simmons
J.J. Stokes
Allen Hurns [61.4]
Austin Collie [69.9]
Willie Jackson
Kendall Wright [67.7]
Jason McAddley
Kenny Stills [61.4]
Jordan Shipley [66.3]
Charles Johnson [67.3]
Snoop Minnis
Mahamed Massaquoi [64.4]
Kenbrell Thompkins [62.5]
Taylor Gabriel [72.6]
Titus Young [65.1]
Marlon Brown [64.9]
Charlie Jones
Peter Warrick


Stud Hit Rate – 7%
Good Hit Rate – 24%
Bust Hit Rate – 76%

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27-36

62 players total

Stud (6)
Edelman [68.9]
Terrell Owens
Laveranues Coles
Demaryius Thomas [82.7]
Roddy White
Chad Johnson

Good (6)
Alshon Jeffery [66.4]
Michael Floyd [62.0]
Davone Bess [77.8]
David Boston
Nate Burleson
Davante Adams [62.8]

Stud Hit Rate – 10%
Good or Better Hit Rate – 19%
Bust Hit Rate – 81%


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17-26

69 total

Studs (7)
Reggie Wayne
Jordy Nelson [62.0]
Plaxico Burress [80.7]
Golden Tate [65.4]
Brandon Marshall [72.9]
Antonio Brown [82.0]
Eric Moulds

Good (5)
Ted Ginn Jr. [62.7]
Peerless Price
Bobby Engram
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Marvin Jones [60.3]

Stud Hit Rate – 10%
Good or better Hit Rate – 17%
Bust Hit Rate – 83%


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7-16

95 total players

Studs (6)
Hines Ward
Derrick Mason
Steve Smith
Antonio Freeman
Rod Smith
Stevie Johnson [65.6]

Good (4)
David Patten
Bernard Berrian
Brandon Lloyd
Adam Thielen [66.3]


Stud Rate – 6%
Good or Better – 11%
Bust Rate - 89%

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0-6

115 total players

Studs (2)
Joe Horn
Wes Welker

Good (3)
Jerricho Cotchery
Pierre Garcon [59.9]
Bill Schroeder

Stud Rate – 2%
Good or Better – 4%
Bust Rate - 96%


Notes:
1) There have been several WR's to become studs in the mid-40s range, giving me more optimism than most for Pittman

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Amount of Rookie Receivers with >47 YPG, >=9 games played. By Year.

1.6 per year average
1985 - 4
1986 - 2
1987 - 1
1988 - 1
1989 - 3
1990 - 1
1991 - 1
1992 - 0
1993 – 1

1.6 per year average
1994 - 2
1995 - 4
1996 - 4
1997 - 0
1998 - 1
1999 - 2
2000 - 0
2001 - 1
2002 - 0

2.8 per year average
2003 - 2
2004 - 5
2005 - 1
2006 - 2
2007 - 2
2008 - 2
2009 - 5
2010 - 2
2011 - 5

3.7 per year average
2012 - 3
2013 - 2
2014 - 9
2015 - 2
2016 - 1
2017 - 2
2018 - 3
2019 - 5
2020 - 6

There has been an increase of roughly 1 per year each decade since around the year 2000.


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Rookie PFF Grades

PFF Grade for Studs (All groups)
Average 73.9
High 91.2 (OBJ)
Low 62 (Jordy Nelson)

PFF Grade for Good (All groups)
Average 67.7
High 80.4 (Doug Baldwin)
Low 59.9 (Pierre Garcon)

PFF Grade for Bust (37+ YPG)
Average 67.8
High 75.1 (Kenny Britt)
Low 57.5 (Greg Little)

*PFF Grade for Busts should be lower (I estimate by around 5 points) because I only included the busts from the ypg data, not ALL busts.

Notes:
1) The higher the PFF Grade, the better. However, they are not the be-all end-all.
2) Rookies ending the year with an 80+ PFF Grade almost never miss. Probably a good opportunity to buy-low on Aiyuk.
3) Rookie receivers with 37+ YPG and over 75 PFF grade have never busted. They may not turn out to be studs but at least they don't bust.

Post 2015, I believe this is who would be in that group (leaving out the 80+ group, so 75-79);
Tee Higgins
Chase Claypool
Hunter Renfrow
Cooper Kupp
Juju Smith-Schuster

All the numbers point to Hunter Renfrow being a strong buy at his price.

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Rookie WR PFF Receiving Grades

80+ PFF Grade
Dwayne Bowe
Percy Harvin
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Doug Baldwin
Keenan Allen
Odell Beckham Jr.
Mike Evans
JJ Nelson (28 targets)
Michael Thomas
Chris Godwin
Terry McLaurin
AJ Brown
Justin Jefferson
Brandon Aiyuk


75-80 PFF Grade
Santonio Holmes
Marques Colston
Sidney Rice
Anthony Gonzalez
Davone Bess
Kenny Britt
Arrelious Benn
Andrew Hawkins
Damaris Johnson
Jarvis Landry
Stefon Diggs
Tyler Lockett
Tyreek Hill (80+ if ignore the playoffs)
Cooper Kupp
Hunter Renfrow
Tee Higgins
Chase Claypool


<60 PFF Grade
Hank Baskett
Chad Jackson
Derek Hagan
Laurent Robinson
Dwayne Jarrett
Chaz Schilens
Harry Douglas
Devin Thomas
James Hardy
Keenan Burton
Deon Butler
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Donald Jones
Riley Cooper
Dexter McCluster
Max Komar
Andre Roberts
Stephen Williams
Jonathan Baldwin
Dane Sanzenbacher
Greg Little
Rishard Matthews
Lavon Brazill
Brian Quick
Stephen Hill
Kevin Elliott
TJ Graham
Keshawn Martin
Josh Boyce
Da’Rick Rogers
Darius Johnson
Ty Montgomery
Darius Jennings
Rashad Greene
Donteea Dye
Devin Smith
Nelson Agholor
Keith Mumphery
Josh Docston
Charone Peake
Ricardo Louis
Robby Anderson (56.4)
Braxton Miller
Taywan Taylor
Josh Reynolds
Curtis Samuel (53.6)
Zay Jones
Mike Williams (51.8)
Travis Rudloph
DJ Chark (51.6)
James Washington
Marcell Ateman
Trent Sherfield
Damion Ratley
Miles Boykin
Parris Campbell
KeeSean Johnson
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Tyler Johnson
Isaiah Wright
Freddie Swain
Henry Ruggs
KJ Hamler
John Hightower

[Gatoriole]

Long-time lurker on these posts. Appreciate the work you've done (and the updates).

[CGW]

Enjoyed this thread last year. Thank you for continuing to update.

Toney and Moore have both surprised me thus far. Chase and Smith are exactly what I expected so far.

[Hottoddies]

Too bad Kyle Pitts is a TE. At 61 yards per game he would have a 50% chance of being a stud if he was a WR.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Too bad Kyle Pitts is a TE. At 61 yards per game he would have a 50% chance of being a stud if he was a WR.

I did post about TE hit rates by ypg, I have no idea where. I’ll have to find it.

[nathanq42]

DD the real mvp

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Too bad Kyle Pitts is a TE. At 61 yards per game he would have a 50% chance of being a stud if he was a WR.

I did post about TE hit rates by ypg, I have no idea where. I’ll have to find it.

Here it is

I've also been wondering if this rookie ypg thing works at other positions. I'm looking at TE's right now, and rookie year production for studs (i'll just define stud as 3+ years of 800+ yards) is very scattershot. For example, the first stud on the list (Kittle) is only 14th in rookie ypg since 1995.

However, if you ignore rookie year production and switch over to 2nd year production by ypg, that's when all the studs show up at the top. Year 3 is similar to the year 2 list just with some name shuffling and interchanging. I'll list the top 15 for each below. It's odd how many no-names show up at the top of rookie year production... very strange.

1st Year YPG Leaders(2 of 15 are studs)
Shockey
Reed
Engram
Cleeland
Aaron Hernandez
Dilger
Carlson
Freddie Jones
Tony Moeaki
Will Tye
Tim Wright
Noah Fant
Mark Andrews
George Kittle
Rob Gronkowski

2nd year YPG Leaders(7 of 15 are studs)
Kittle
Gronk
Graham
Aaron Hernandez
Antonio Gates
Witten
Shockey
Mark Andrews
OJH
Kellen Winslow
Kelce
Engram
Todd Heap
Jermichael Finley
TJ Hockenson

3rd year YPG Leaders (8 of 15 are studs)
Kittle
Gates
Gronk
Winslow
Reed
Graham
Cameron
Celek
Ertz
Tony Gonzalez
Julius Thomas
Ebron
Kelce
Owen Daniels
Zach Miller

[jman3134]

Thank you for this work.

[DynastyDrum30]

Your contributions to this site have helped me a lot over the years. Thanks for all you do, DD! If you lived locally, I would shake your hand and buy you a beer

[timeEd32]

Thank you for this -- do you use the overall PFF grade or the receiving grade? Sorry if I missed that somewhere.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Thank you for this -- do you use the overall PFF grade or the receiving grade? Sorry if I missed that somewhere.

I use the receiving grade. I looked at overall grade which includes rushing but it appeared nonsensical, as in it made things less predictive.

[timeEd32]

Thank you for this -- do you use the overall PFF grade or the receiving grade? Sorry if I missed that somewhere.

I use the receiving grade. I looked at overall grade which includes rushing but it appeared nonsensical, as in it made things less predictive.

Have seen others say the same.

[gpaok]

First I will say amazing data collection!!! So other than rookies on IR like Bateman - should the ones below 47 score be potential drops due to the low likelihood of succeeding? I assume wait to the end of the season but it would take a lot during the next few weeks to bump most above that mark.

[Jrblaha]

Very cool post and appreciate the work. Mostly commenting to say awesome job and so i can remember to look at this thread over time. Cheers

[Dynasty DeLorean]

First I will say amazing data collection!!! So other than rookies on IR like Bateman - should the ones below 47 score be potential drops due to the low likelihood of succeeding? I assume wait to the end of the season but it would take a lot during the next few weeks to bump most above that mark.

No that seems a bit drastic, but I’d be more inclined to sell than i would otherwise, and more inclined to buy those with the production.