Rookie WR Production 2021

[Pyro_6138]

Waddle made me a believer he pushed me into the championship, wanted Smith but he went right before I picked. Not that I thought Waddle would be a bust but definitely preferred Smith.

Kicking myself for not grabbing ARSB at least as a depth piece when Hock and Swift are back. Could easily be a Crowder-esque type ppr WR that people aren't going to value properly.

Hopefully Marshall shows something or has a hell of an off season I grabbed him up as he was dropped in our league. Willing to let him sit in a taxi slot based off potential.

[Jigga94]

Waddle made me a believer he pushed me into the championship, wanted Smith but he went right before I picked. Not that I thought Waddle would be a bust but definitely preferred Smith.

Kicking myself for not grabbing ARSB at least as a depth piece when Hock and Swift are back. Could easily be a Crowder-esque type ppr WR that people aren't going to value properly.

Hopefully Marshall shows something or has a hell of an off season I grabbed him up as he was dropped in our league. Willing to let him sit in a taxi slot based off potential.

I predict Marshall will have a great offseason. Hype videos and coach speak out the wah-zoo. Then plenty of 2 for 12 games when it counts

[Pyro_6138]

Waddle made me a believer he pushed me into the championship, wanted Smith but he went right before I picked. Not that I thought Waddle would be a bust but definitely preferred Smith.

Kicking myself for not grabbing ARSB at least as a depth piece when Hock and Swift are back. Could easily be a Crowder-esque type ppr WR that people aren't going to value properly.

Hopefully Marshall shows something or has a hell of an off season I grabbed him up as he was dropped in our league. Willing to let him sit in a taxi slot based off potential.

I predict Marshall will have a great offseason. Hype videos and coach speak out the wah-zoo. Then plenty of 2 for 12 games when it counts

Maybe a small window to flip him then which is fine with me

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Update For Week 17

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
90% Good or better
Ja'Marr Chase [89] [PFF GRADE: 83]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Jaylen Waddle [65] [PFF GRADE: 79]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
38% Stud
57-69% Good or better
DeVonta Smith [54] [PFF GRADE: 76]
Amon-Ra St. Brown [50] [PFF GRADE: 76]
Elijah Moore [48] [PFF GRADE: 73]


--------------------

Less than 47
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better

Rashod Bateman [44] [PFF GRADE: 66]
Kadarius Toney [42] [PFF GRADE: 74]
Rondale Moore [31] [PFF GRADE: 70]
Nico Collins [29] [PFF GRADE: 63]
Josh Palmer [19] [PFF GRADE: 63]
+16 others...


---------------------------------------------------
*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
--------------------------------------------------

Notes:
1) Chase hitting every benchmark you want. YPG PFF Grade
2) Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Devonta hitting the combined YPG benchmark (47+) and PFF grade (75+) benchmarks for "bust-proof".
3) Bateman and Toney may not hit ideal YPG benchmark but they are in the ballpark (similar to Sutton, Pittman, etc. of years past).
4) Just because someone did poorly doesn't mean they are not a buy. Terrace Marshall did very badly as a rookie but so did other speedsters like Chark and Robby Anderson. Marshall is likely not very good but still could see a significant value increase in future years giving you a chance to sell.

[Cameron Giles]

This class seemed to play out predictably overall. Maybe we underrated Waddle a tad going in, but he was the best WR in college before his injury, so not too surprising at the same time.

Toney maybe really the only development that really surprised me. His separation skills look a lot better than anybody gave him credit for. Just couldn't get healthy after those games.

[NeverEndingRebuild]

Hey DD, are you planning on tracking their performance in week 18 as well?

I really wanna see Bateman moving up lol.

Overall I'm very happy with my draft this year. I managed to get Chase, Elijah and Bateman, and flipped my last 2nd rd pick (would've been ARSB) for a 2022 earlier 2nd, which is nice.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Hey DD, are you planning on tracking their performance in week 18 as well?

That’s the plan.

[mild]

Update For KYLE PITTS EDITION

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
90% Good or better
Ja'Marr Chase [89] [PFF GRADE: 83]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Jaylen Waddle [65] [PFF GRADE: 79]
Kyle Pitts [64] [PFF GRADE: 82]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
38% Stud
57-69% Good or better
DeVonta Smith [54] [PFF GRADE: 76]
Amon-Ra St. Brown [50] [PFF GRADE: 76]
Elijah Moore [48] [PFF GRADE: 73]


--------------------

Less than 47
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better

Rashod Bateman [44] [PFF GRADE: 66]
Kadarius Toney [42] [PFF GRADE: 74]
Rondale Moore [31] [PFF GRADE: 70]
Nico Collins [29] [PFF GRADE: 63]
Josh Palmer [19] [PFF GRADE: 63]
+16 others...


---------------------------------------------------
*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
--------------------------------------------------

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Lol. His receiving grade is an 84 though.

[mild]

Lol. His receiving grade is an 84 though.

Good to know, I don't pay for the full PFF sub.

Glad you didn't mind me bastardising your post too, I'd been itching to do it for a while now

I was curious, what's with the 66/67 ypg split as to correlating between an extra 40% of "stud" factor, is that just where it lines up in your model? Pitts is 3 yards per game off of joining Ja'marr Chase in that upper level... a rather tantalising thought.

To quote the great Lamar Jackson: "not bad for a Running Back!"

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Lol. His receiving grade is an 84 though.

I was curious, what's with the 66/67 ypg split as to correlating between an extra 40% of "stud" factor, is that just where it lines up in your model? Pitts is 3 yards per game off of joining Ja'marr Chase in that upper level... a rather tantalising thought.

I wanted to do steady YPG increments and basically had to decide where to start/stop them. Things seemed to line up nicely when i started the increments on the 7s and went by 10. Those YPG increments also lined up nicely with total receiving yards cutoffs i already had identified (~750+ total yards as a baseline with 1,000+ total yards being mostly studs), with the bonus being the YPG had a much better result than the total yardage. I tried to do by 5 YPG increments but the data is too wonky. I'm making up this particular scenario as an example but you'd have a situation where 45-50 YPG would have a better hit rate than 51-55 YPG, which obviously doesn't make much sense. It just comes from the sample size in NFL is always super small so you're always going to get inconsistent results unless it's a very broad criteria. The thing with 47+ YPG is not many rookies hit it (you're lucky if it's up to 5 per year) so the sample size is pretty small. As to why the 67+ split is an extra 40% stud factor, that's just based on the data and I suppose also based on where I decided to put the cutoffs. I posted all the players that hit this mark in the first post here and you can look for yourself how it all works out.

The reason why I don't do this for TE's is because it doesn't really work. Most stud TE's actually break out in year 2 or 3. In fact, you have to go all the way to 35th on the Rookie TE YPG leaders list to get to Gronk who consistently put up superstar numbers. (edit: If you pair down the years to 1995---> Gronk is still at #16 on the list). You have at maximum a handful of TE's higher on the list that put up good but not great numbers. Kittle is at #33 but his career numbers are actually not that impressive from a season yardage total standpoint. Pitts is at #2 but it wouldn't appear to be terribly meaningful. Contrast that with the Leaders in Rookie WR YPG Leaders and the top 10 are literally all studs except for Michael Clayton, with Jefferson and Chase projected as studs.

[gpaok]

Love this thread my favorite one and VERY informative!!

Sad to see Bateman drop group but it probably has to do a little with the mess Baltimore has been in the last couple weeks!

[mild]

Lol. His receiving grade is an 84 though.

I was curious, what's with the 66/67 ypg split as to correlating between an extra 40% of "stud" factor, is that just where it lines up in your model? Pitts is 3 yards per game off of joining Ja'marr Chase in that upper level... a rather tantalising thought.

I wanted to do steady YPG increments and basically had to decide where to start/stop them. Things seemed to line up nicely when i started the increments on the 7s and went by 10. Those YPG increments also lined up nicely with total receiving yards cutoffs i already had identified (~750+ total yards as a baseline with 1,000+ total yards being mostly studs), with the bonus being the YPG had a much better result than the total yardage. I tried to do by 5 YPG increments but the data is too wonky. I'm making up this particular scenario as an example but you'd have a situation where 45-50 YPG would have a better hit rate than 51-55 YPG, which obviously doesn't make much sense. It just comes from the sample size in NFL is always super small so you're always going to get inconsistent results unless it's a very broad criteria. The thing with 47+ YPG is not many rookies hit it (you're lucky if it's up to 5 per year) so the sample size is pretty small. As to why the 67+ split is an extra 40% stud factor, that's just based on the data and I suppose also based on where I decided to put the cutoffs. I posted all the players that hit this mark in the first post here and you can look for yourself how it all works out.

The reason why I don't do this for TE's is because it doesn't really work. Most stud TE's actually break out in year 2 or 3. In fact, you have to go all the way to 35th on the Rookie TE YPG leaders list to get to Gronk who consistently put up superstar numbers. (edit: If you pair down the years to 1995---> Gronk is still at #16 on the list). You have at maximum a handful of TE's higher on the list that put up good but not great numbers. Kittle is at #33 but his career numbers are actually not that impressive from a season yardage total standpoint. Pitts is at #2 but it wouldn't appear to be terribly meaningful. Contrast that with the Leaders in Rookie WR YPG Leaders and the top 10 are literally all studs except for Michael Clayton, with Jefferson and Chase projected as studs.

A frickin' awesome reply, thanks for going so in-depth for me. Really appreciate the work you put in, and for you taking the time to lay out the math for us.

To Pitts specifically... there are those in the industry that are already bypassing the TE box for him entirely, and are just treating him as a receiver. It's not an altogether unfair approach. He really is stretching the credibility of being designated a "tight end" - but of course, that's why there are those of us who coveted him as highly as we did.

I did quite enjoy this post... the author lining up all the guys with similar builds and rookie production who are within reasonable comparison range as comps - and it's as complete a list of freaks as you'd expect.

https://twitter.com/DaltonGuruFF/status ... 32386?s=20

[murphysxm]

A frickin' awesome reply, thanks for going so in-depth for me. Really appreciate the work you put in, and for you taking the time to lay out the math for us.

I would like to echo this DD is a rock star for doing the work then consistently pulling his pants down and explaining how he got there. No ego, here are the stats, make your own conclusions

[Dynasty DeLorean]

1) PFF Grade of 80+ never(?) bust. Chase and ARSB fit the bill here. DO NOT SELL LOW ON AMON-RA ST. BROWN!!!
2) Receiving YPG 47+ combined with PFF Grade 75+ is a very safe profile. Waddle + Smith meet those criteria. Obviously Chase and ARSB as well.
3) Elijah Moore would theoretically be the riskiest asset of the 47+ YPG group as his PFF grade didn't eclipse the 75 mark and also he did what he did in less games. Although I suppose you could argue the inverse, in that he could have gotten hot in the home stretch a'la ARSB.
4) Bateman and Toney missed the cut, but they're still in the "so you're telling me there's still a chance" range.
5) Of the sub-47 group, there are a total of 19 players, so in theory we would still see 1-2 studs from that group. But guessing who won't be easy. I'd be selling those still valued highly, and buying those valued low.
6) Guys who did poorly their rookie season in YPG and PFF Grade that recouped their value in subsequent years tended to be speedsters with adequate or better size. Robbie Anderson, DJ Chark, Henry Ruggs. So using this knowledge, I think players such as Terrace Marshall and Anthony Schwartz would be good low-cost stashes.
7) I really enjoy doing these weekly updates throughout the season. I think you can use it to your advantage too.



Update For Week 18

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
90% Good or better
Ja'Marr Chase [85] [PFF GRADE: 84]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Jaylen Waddle [63] [PFF GRADE: 78]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
38% Stud
57-69% Good or better
DeVonta Smith [53] [PFF GRADE: 76]
Amon-Ra St. Brown [53] [PFF GRADE: 80]
Elijah Moore [48] [PFF GRADE: 73]


--------------------

Less than 47
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Rashod Bateman [42] [PFF GRADE: 65]
Kadarius Toney [42] [PFF GRADE: 74]
Nico Collins [31] [PFF GRADE: 65]
Rondale Moore [31] [PFF GRADE: 70]
Josh Palmer [20] [PFF GRADE: 63]
+14 others...


---------------------------------------------------
*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
--------------------------------------------------