Rookie WR Production 2021

[ThunderTung]

My god, Ja'Marr.

Yeah. If we ignore the 1950s the only player close is OBJ @ 108, with Justin Jefferson being the next closest.

plz don't bring up OBJ in the same sentence as Chase. gonna make me scared lmao

[Diti51]

Just want to say thank you for this thread. Absolute gold. Appreciate the time it must take to gather all this data and then share for free to all of us. Appreciate you DD!

[frerichs5]

Just want to say thank you for this thread. Absolute gold. Appreciate the time it must take to gather all this data and then share for free to all of us. Appreciate you DD!

Ditto. Thank you!!

[Jrblaha]

Just want to say thank you for this thread. Absolute gold. Appreciate the time it must take to gather all this data and then share for free to all of us. Appreciate you DD!

Ditto. Thank you!!

X3

[gpaok]

Thanks for your hard work!!! I was wondering if you plan on updating this often or just at the end ?

We had Bateman play 4 games since then and have a ypg of 60.2, which puts him high up there in the rankings for rookies!

[NeverEndingRebuild]

Thanks for your hard work!!! I was wondering if you plan on updating this often or just at the end ?

We had Bateman play 4 games since then and have a ypg of 60.2, which puts him high up there in the rankings for rookies!

I am so happy he dropped in the rankings around the time my draft happened, so I snagged him with a not-so-early second (2.04) alongside Chase (1.07, because of pre-season dropsies and someone liking ZW more).

Now it's Elijah Moore's turn to climb the ranks please.

[gpaok]

Thanks for your hard work!!! I was wondering if you plan on updating this often or just at the end ?

We had Bateman play 4 games since then and have a ypg of 60.2, which puts him high up there in the rankings for rookies!

I am so happy he dropped in the rankings around the time my draft happened, so I snagged him with a not-so-early second (2.04) alongside Chase (1.07, because of pre-season dropsies and someone liking ZW more).

Now it's Elijah Moore's turn to climb the ranks please.

Was thinking the same thing lol

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Thanks for your hard work!!! I was wondering if you plan on updating this often or just at the end ?

We had Bateman play 4 games since then and have a ypg of 60.2, which puts him high up there in the rankings for rookies!

Thanks. Yeah I plan to update every week I just forgot this week.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Update For Week 10

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
90% Good or better
Ja'Marr Chase [93]


57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Rashod Bateman [60]
DeVonta Smith [60]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
38% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Jaylen Waddle [55]


--------------------

Less than 47
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Kadarius Toney [44]
Rondale Moore [36]
Amon-Ra St. Brown [34]
Elijah Moore [34]
Nico Collins [31]
Terrace Marshall Jr. [14]
Josh Palmer [14]
Anthony Schwartz [11]
Dyami Brown [11]
+25 others

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*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample.
*Minimum of 9 games played.
--------------------------------------------------

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I think the top 4 in RYPG are pretty safe bets to continue their production b/c their depth charts are pretty weak and Chase is just that good. Guys who could seize a substantial role on their team and bump up their numbers are Amon-Ra St. Brown [5+ targets in last 5 of 6 games] and Elijah Moore [6+ targets in past 4 games]. Their depth charts are just a whole bunch of nothing. I could see them as late-season risers.

[Jigga94]

I've liked ARSB and the depth chart is wide open but that offense (Goff) is just so bad... you'd think junk time would give him a boost but not as much.

Glad I bought Bateman when I did.

[mild]

Pretty great thread right here with some heavy hitters of the fantasy world chiming in (and some being taken to task! lol) - if anyone has a Reception Perception subscription and would like to post us the full charts I'd be very thankful! Keen to see this forbidden fruit Bateman chart.

https://twitter.com/GuruFantasyWrld/sta ... 4794609667

The Reception Perception midseason rookie report loves Elijah Moore.

⁃ 2nd highest success rate vs man (behind only Bateman)
⁃ 3rd highest vs zone (behind Smith & Bateman)

Terrace Marshall though…

⁃ Dead last vs man (43.2%)
⁃ 2nd to last vs zone (behind only ARSB)

Feeling pretty great about getting Bateman everywhere right now, not gonna lie... glad I didn't step on the Terrace landmine.

Feeling slightly less great about trading away Elijah Moore+ for Zach Wilson

[Jigga94]

So we're just burying Terrace Marshall already as a rookie with Sam Darnold? I'd buy more shares if I hadn't already

[mild]

So we're just burying Terrace Marshall already as a rookie with Sam Darnold? I'd buy more shares if I hadn't already

I believe Reception Perception grades the player individually; per there success on the route at:

a. Getting open
b. Defeating their defensive coverage

... which is why we're celebrating Elijah Moore in this space, who has been pretty brutal on all of the Zach Wilson minutes statistically speaking and has really only perked up for fantasy in the last two games with -checks notes- "Josh Johnson" and "Joe Flacco" and "occasionally the White guy".

Unless you're out here saying that Cam Newton is going to drastically improve Terrace Marshall's ability to defeat zone AND man coverage at the NFL level - in which case, god speed to you, good sir - yes, yes we ARE f-ckin' burying him right now.

I wouldn't put a lot of faith in Cam's arm servicing the receivers of Carolina in any meaningful way for these final 7 games either, personally speaking.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Pretty great thread right here with some heavy hitters of the fantasy world chiming in (and some being taken to task! lol) - if anyone has a Reception Perception subscription and would like to post us the full charts I'd be very thankful! Keen to see this forbidden fruit Bateman chart.

https://twitter.com/GuruFantasyWrld/sta ... 4794609667

The Reception Perception midseason rookie report loves Elijah Moore.

⁃ 2nd highest success rate vs man (behind only Bateman)
⁃ 3rd highest vs zone (behind Smith & Bateman)

Terrace Marshall though…

⁃ Dead last vs man (43.2%)
⁃ 2nd to last vs zone (behind only ARSB)

Feeling pretty great about getting Bateman everywhere right now, not gonna lie... glad I didn't step on the Terrace landmine.

Feeling slightly less great about trading away Elijah Moore+ for Zach Wilson

Marshalls PFF Grade is a 56 which is also awful and a good indicator that he's a bum, although in recent years there have been a few outliers to the "rule of under 60 pff grade" such as DJ Chark and even Ruggs was having some success this year before... [edit: listed in the OP, notable under 60 players include Chark, Robby Anderson, Mike Williams]. Anyway, with all 3 things indicators combined, I think you should certainly be trading Marshall for a lower-valued player + that is in the same tier with him. All that said, there are still many weeks left in the season for a turnaround though.

As for Moore, the only Jets game I really watched a lot of was the 1st game, and oddly enough I thought Wilson played well and Moore played like a turd. Since then it seems the roles have been reversed though. I should mention Elijah Moore's PFF Grade is only a 64, so not that spectacular either.

PFF grades are most indicative when under 60 or over 75/80. Currently Terrace Marshall and Dyami Brown are below 60, Chase and Devonta above 75.