Rookie WR Production 2021

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
User avatar
Dynasty DeLorean
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 8856
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:45 am

Re: Rookie WR Production 2021

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:07 am

gpaok wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:15 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:58 am I may experiment with reducing or cutting the draft capital points and see what that does as it’s not technically on the field impact. I originally included because obviously higher draft capital does afford more advantages for players to get on the field
Wow you are the man!!!

Does this mean that Nico Collins and Moore might have less chances of being studs vs Toney or Bateman since their opportunity was medium vs low?
I should probably have rephrased that category, the opportunity category towards the top (directly under the players name) I think you’re referring to just means did they start a lot of games or not. The opportunity score at the bottom indicates overall opportunity, with weighting all the factors listed above.

I think it stands to reason that if player A produced the same as player B, but player A’s opportunity score was lower than player B’s, then player A would in theory be more likely to break out as they did more with less. But I have not actually tested that idea yet.

In general, the higher ypg receivers had higher opportunity scores, but we also know higher ypg means greater chance of future success. So a high opportunity score is not necessarily a bad thing. However, a high opportunity score with limited production does seem to be a negative, as the highest score of a stud from the lower ypg tiers (the 46 and under tiers) was only 11. In other words, studs will produce 47+ ypg as a rookie unless their opportunity is limited (which we can see via their opportunity score).

gpaok
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1170
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:04 pm

Re: Rookie WR Production 2021

Postby gpaok » Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:32 pm

How does one come up with a massive spreadsheet? Like this? Do you have an in or have you been this long interested in dynasty football? I admire the depth and detail, the reasoning and the overall high level discussion here!!! It’s like an engineer/statistician with a bug for football!!
10 team Dynasty Superflex, 1 PPR, 20 + 3 IR player roster
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, SFlex, Flex, DEF

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen
RB: Nick Chubb, J.K. Dobbins, Travis Etienne, Rhamondre Stevenson, Rachaad White, Khalil Herbert, Tank Bigsby, Jaylen Warren, Jerome Ford, Kyren Williams, Tank Bigsby
WR: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Calvin Ridley, Tank Dell
TE:T.J. Hockenson, Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson

User avatar
Dynasty DeLorean
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 8856
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:45 am

Re: Rookie WR Production 2021

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Mar 09, 2022 2:15 pm

Link to Season ending report for 2021 in case anyone missed it

Just a reminder, players who hit the 1k yard receiving mark once are basically safer than nearly any other WR you can buy in terms of their ability to do it again. With the extra games I had to add in the minimum 62.5 YPG qualifier. Players who hit 1k for the first time this year would be:

Jaylen Waddle
Michael Pittman
Tee Higgins
CeeDee Lamb
Dionte Johnson
Deebo Samuel
Ja'Marr Chase

Previous qualifiers for this list in previous years, who were perpetually undervalued, are guys like Mike Williams, Tyler Boyd, even Brandin Cooks. I believe the hit rate was about 50% for these players to become a "stud", aka put up another 2 or more 1k seasons. You might think 50% is low but it's actually quite high and one of the safest assets you can get. If these players drop in value or are not valued highly I'd probably be buying whichever is cheapest.

User avatar
Dynasty DeLorean
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 8856
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:45 am

Re: Rookie WR Production 2021

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:38 am

DJ Chark - Previous 1k yard receiver - Should have bought low

Robbie Anderson - Previous 1k yard receiver - Should have bought low

JuJu Smith-Schuster - Previous 1k yard receiver - 57-66 YPG as a Rookie - Should have bought low

Amon-Ra St. Brown - 47-56 YPG as a Rookie - PFF Receiving Grade of 80+ as a Rookie - Should have bought low and/or not expected much regression

Sometimes we over-complicate things with narratives. It doesn't always work out but just a reminder to keep taking those high percentage shots.

CGW
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6544
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:31 pm

Re: Rookie WR Production 2021

Postby CGW » Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:41 am

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Mon Sep 12, 2022 5:38 am DJ Chark - Previous 1k yard receiver - Should have bought low

Robbie Anderson - Previous 1k yard receiver - Should have bought low

JuJu Smith-Schuster - Previous 1k yard receiver - 57-66 YPG as a Rookie - Should have bought low

Amon-Ra St. Brown - 47-56 YPG as a Rookie - PFF Receiving Grade of 80+ as a Rookie - Should have bought low and/or not expected much regression

Sometimes we over-complicate things with narratives. It doesn't always work out but just a reminder to keep taking those high percentage shots.
I don't know what it is about DJ chark, but I cant make myself believe. Maybe it's that I like Williams and ARSB so much. For a bad team, Detroit has too many mouths.

User avatar
Dynasty DeLorean
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 8856
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:45 am

Re: Rookie WR Production 2021

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:47 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:05 pm 1) PFF Grade of 80+ never(?) bust. Chase and ARSB fit the bill here. DO NOT SELL LOW ON AMON-RA ST. BROWN!!!
Sorry, had to do it lol

Jigga94
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 16060
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:38 pm

Re: Rookie WR Production 2021

Postby Jigga94 » Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:49 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:47 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:05 pm 1) PFF Grade of 80+ never(?) bust. Chase and ARSB fit the bill here. DO NOT SELL LOW ON AMON-RA ST. BROWN!!!
Sorry, had to do it lol
Was a great call. I'm interested to see this offense when Jamo is active.

gpaok
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1170
Joined: Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:04 pm

Re: Rookie WR Production 2021

Postby gpaok » Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:16 pm

Wondering if you are doing a “ Rookie WR Production 2022” version? I assume week 5-6 might be better for first pass but we got some strong starts from 3-4 WRs (Olave, London, Dotson, Doubs). Doubs might not be so strong yet but looks solid last two weeks.
10 team Dynasty Superflex, 1 PPR, 20 + 3 IR player roster
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, SFlex, Flex, DEF

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen
RB: Nick Chubb, J.K. Dobbins, Travis Etienne, Rhamondre Stevenson, Rachaad White, Khalil Herbert, Tank Bigsby, Jaylen Warren, Jerome Ford, Kyren Williams, Tank Bigsby
WR: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Calvin Ridley, Tank Dell
TE:T.J. Hockenson, Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson

User avatar
Dynasty DeLorean
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 8856
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:45 am

Re: Rookie WR Production 2021

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:21 pm

gpaok wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:16 pm Wondering if you are doing a “ Rookie WR Production 2022” version? I assume week 5-6 might be better for first pass but we got some strong starts from 3-4 WRs (Olave, London, Dotson, Doubs). Doubs might not be so strong yet but looks solid last two weeks.
Yeah, think I’m going to do it this week.

User avatar
wickerkat1212
Legend
Legend
Posts: 5434
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:23 am
Contact:

Re: Rookie WR Production 2021

Postby wickerkat1212 » Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:55 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:21 pm
gpaok wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:16 pm Wondering if you are doing a “ Rookie WR Production 2022” version? I assume week 5-6 might be better for first pass but we got some strong starts from 3-4 WRs (Olave, London, Dotson, Doubs). Doubs might not be so strong yet but looks solid last two weeks.
Yeah, think I’m going to do it this week.
Sweet. Thanks!
D3:
QB—Allen RB—Kamara, Jacobs, Edwards, Ford, Warren WR—Lamb, Olave, DJM, Puka, Harrison, TILLMAN, Marshall, Jefferson TE—Ferguson, Schoon, Likely, Smith, Washington KRAFT PK—Prater DEF—BAL

D4:
QB—TLaw, JimmyG, Tannehill, AOC RB—BIJAN, Conner, Gainwell, Gainwell, HULL, ZMoss, Chandler, McLaughlin, Murray WR—Jefferson, Hill, Diggs, Adams, Allen, TILLMAN, Boyd, Woods, HUTCHINSON, DOUGLAS TE—Kelce, Kmet, Schultz, Parham PK—Butker DEF—PIT

Superflex 1:
QB—Mahomes, Rodgers, Mayfield, Howell RB—BIJAN, Kamara, Allgeier, Singletary, Mostert, BRob, Warren, HULL, GRAY WR—Chase, DJM, Devonta, Myers, Hardman, Reynolds BOUTTE TE—Kmet, Smith, Hurst, Ertz, KRAFT PK—Elliott DEF—PHI

Superflex 2:
QB: Goff, Cousins, Wentz, White; RB: BIJAN, BRob, ZWhite, Hines, TDP, McLaughlin WR: Higgins, JSN, JWilliams, DJM, RMoore, DOWNS, Atwell, TILLMAN, BOUTTE, SMoore, PCampbell, DPJ, ATP, CJONES TE: Trautman, Ferguson, KRAFT, Hooper

chubnubbin
Starter
Starter
Posts: 633
Joined: Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:00 pm

Re: Rookie WR Production 2021

Postby chubnubbin » Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:05 pm

looking forward to it!

User avatar
Dynasty DeLorean
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 8856
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:45 am

Re: Rookie WR Production 2021

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Wed Nov 01, 2023 1:39 pm

Ice wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:46 pm Josh Palmer has the tools be a breakout player by year 3. Buy him cheap while you can. His usage was increasing starting in the 2nd week of December. Smooth in and out of Routes and Herbert looked to be developing trust in him. 18 of his 33 receptions were from his last 5 games as were 3 of his 4 TD's.
Nice call

Image


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: murphysxm and 33 guests