Jalen Hurts: What's the verdict?

[Anteaters]

We've all failed at seeing these leaps coming, been shocked and surprised by some of them, and occasionally even gotten it right. .... The point is? No-one -knows- for sure, and your rush to bury a player should always factor in the relative opportunity cost of doing so)

This is most often very true. Especially when someone comes from so far bad as Hurts in critical parts of the job. This isn't personal for me. I hope Hurts succeeds, just like I hoped Darnold succeeded in Carolina and I hoped Haskins would have succeeded. It's just that I see too many flaws in his game to give him a chance in dynasty - he's the epitome of a sell-high to me, and let's not forget that sell-high is a very appropriate strategy for dynasty.

Certainly, no matter which way Hurts turns out, a lot of us are going to be wrong. I admit I'll be one of those very surprised if Hurts is starting and winning (NFL games) in 2023.

But you're right, he could improve. Kurt Warner got back to the grind and improved greatly. As you mentioned, Josh Allen went from "6 more bad games and he's benched" to a T10QB. Anything is possible, even when it seems highly unlikely.

[Ice]

"As long as Tua is healthy" yeah and when pigs fly...

True, and that's about where I am with Tua, too.

But that's the difference between Hurts and Tua. A healthy Hurts is not half the NFL QB that Tua is. Hurts is going to lose his starter status because of his ability. If Tua loses his starter status, it will be wholly or significantly because of his inconsistent availability.

Wow; Not sure what your smoking but Tua is really bad at being a QB.

Tua is undersized, non athletic, can't read a defense and struggled just to learn the playbook. His own teammates didn't even vote him captain which is all one really needs to know when it comes to leadership skills.

I strongly suggest you step away from the ledge.

[Anteaters]

I'm not saying Tua is great now. I'm saying he's much better than Hurts.

[mild]

I'm not saying Tua is great now. I'm saying he's much better than Hurts.

Uhhhh.

Wanna quantify that for us?

Any metric beyond just "my eye test" and "cos I said so"?

Hurts is kicking his a$$ certainly in terms of what matters around these parts: "will this player get me the Dub in fantasy"

Per PFF: Hurts 83.1 overall grade, Tua 71.6 overall grade

Per ESPN QBR: Tua 54.1, Hurts 50.7 (Lamar 54.0, Joe Burrow 49.3 - FWIW)

One final little game for all my many fans around these parts who just adore my continued Hurts posts...

There is a blank space at the top of the page.
Underneath that blank space, I write:

"Through 10 games:
2159 yards passing,
549 yards rushing,
18 total TD's, 5 INT's,
QB5 overall in Fantasy, and leader in QB1 games with 8 - next closest with 5"

I now write "Justin Fields" in the blank space.
-the fantasy commentariat creams it's collective jort-strap and proclaims him the next great cumming of Fantasy christ-

I now write "Trey Lance" in the blank space.
"Shanny was right all along" they cry, "49ers forever and ever, Mac Jones is dead, Jimmy G is dead, Kyle forever, the Bay is saved, amen!" and so on and henceforth.

I'm just sayin'.

[FantasyFreak]

I'm not saying Tua is great now. I'm saying he's much better than Hurts.

Uhhhh.

Wanna quantify that for us?

Any metric beyond just "my eye test" and "cos I said so"?

Hurts is kicking his a$$ certainly in terms of what matters around these parts: "will this player get me the Dub in fantasy"

Per PFF: Hurts 83.1 overall grade, Tua 71.6 overall grade

Per ESPN QBR: Tua 54.1, Hurts 50.7 (Lamar 54.0, Joe Burrow 49.3 - FWIW)

One final little game for all my many fans around these parts who just adore my continued Hurts posts...

There is a blank space at the top of the page.
Underneath that blank space, I write:

"Through 10 games:
2159 yards passing,
549 yards rushing,
18 total TD's, 5 INT's,
QB5 overall in Fantasy, and leader in QB1 games with 8 - next closest with 5"

I now write "Justin Fields" in the blank space.
-the fantasy commentariat creams it's collective jort-strap and proclaims him the next great cumming of Fantasy christ-

I now write "Trey Lance" in the blank space.
"Shanny was right all along" they cry, "49ers forever and ever, Mac Jones is dead, Jimmy G is dead, Kyle forever, the Bay is saved, amen!" and so on and henceforth.

I'm just sayin'.

They both aren't very good NFL QB's. At least Hurts has some rushing upside to compensate for not being a good passer.

[Anteaters]

I'm not saying Tua is great now. I'm saying he's much better than Hurts.

Uhhhh.

Wanna quantify that for us?

In this instance, I'm happy to sit and wait for time to reveal which is the last QB standing. QBR is a fluctuating and sometimes misleading metric for young QBs. Trubinsky was all over the map. Russell Wilson has had a season as low as 57QBR.

So, yeah, I guess this is as much an eye-test judgement as anything. And I know that some fantasy guys look at Hurts and see the next Lamar. I don't. That's fine. I've been wrong before and I'm willing to miss out on snagging the future fantasy QB6.

Time will tell. I'll eat my crow (and be happy for him) if Hurts lasts and succeeds.

BTW, I'll repeat, this is not a judgement of his fantasy performance. I think Hurts is doing very well for his fantasy managers. I'm speaking strictly toward Hurts' ability to be a truly effective real-world QB that leads his NFL team to wins.

[Mike11]

My whole thing with the Hurts hate is people totally forget he can continue to grow if given the starts to do so. As a Ravens fan there was a time that lamar couldn’t throw for 120 passing yards in a game. Hurts is for all intents and purposes a rookie still.

This is a new regime, he’s spending his first year in the system and he’s already made some strides since the early season (in my eyes). The question becomes what does he look like in 4 more games, what’s the Eagles highest pick and do they truly believe in paying to fix their qb or bolster the whole roster and give Hurts another year. As it stands right now Hurts upside of he can learn how to make his second read and distribute the ball out is very high with his athleticism.

[FantasyFreak]

My whole thing with the Hurts hate is people totally forget he can continue to grow if given the starts to do so. As a Ravens fan there was a time that lamar couldn’t throw for 120 passing yards in a game. Hurts is for all intents and purposes a rookie still.

This is a new regime, he’s spending his first year in the system and he’s already made some strides since the early season (in my eyes). The question becomes what does he look like in 4 more games, what’s the Eagles highest pick and do they truly believe in paying to fix their qb or bolster the whole roster and give Hurts another year. As it stands right now Hurts upside of he can learn how to make his second read and distribute the ball out is very high with his athleticism.

Hurts is basically in the same position Lamar was when Lamar was MVP. They both had a handful of starts their rookie years (Lamar had a few more), and Hurts is in year 2, ten starts in. If you want to use Lamar as an example, Lamar was an MVP caliber QB at the point of his career where Hurts is now. Of course Hurts can improve, but it's not happening at Lamar's rate, or anything close to it.

[cazzie33]

Debate is whether Hurts is a bona fide starting NFL QB , not whether his progress matches an MVP season that was quite an outlier for a 2nd year player but rather that at one point his inaccuracy was what many hung their hats on as to why Lamar would never be a legit much less elite starter. Hurts game mirrors Lamar in style more than Tom Brady so that’s why the comparisons have validity as to whether a RPO first type QB w/ accuracy issues can become franchise QB in today’s game.

Maybe Hurts never becomes elite but he has shown enough to be a mid level guy compared to some of the starters playing today. Now if the chance to land an elite guy in Philly presents itself then he’s probably out of luck. But that can be said of almost half of lgs’ starting QBs. Even in that scenario plenty of teams would welcome him to camp to compete for lead role. Maybe he plateaus like Winston did in TB and never takes the next step but he should get a cpl more years before being a career backup & the new Tyrod

[halfbaked88]

The Lamar comparisons at a fantasy level I can see, but at the NFL level they do not compare. Jackson was drafted 1.32 and Hurts 2.21

Like it or not, draft capital matters. A Google search of long term starting NFL QBs drafted in the 2nd round instantly makes Jalen Hurts future outlook look bleak.

Drew Lock anyone?

Compounded by the fact that Hurts went to a franchise in the worst city to lose in. Granted WFT and NYG are horrible and PHI may finish 2nd in the division - the optics "may" be there for Philly to give him a 2nd chance.

But they won't. Because this off-season when they had only *one* draft pick there was talks that they would draft a QB. Locally there was talks that Philly should bring Nick Foles in. And Deshaun Watson. And eventually settling on Joe Flacco - which was a good sign that they really only wanted a vet back up pro presence and not any real competition... Then Minshew strolls in all willy nilly... Trust me. I know by living in PA. All this controversy that occurred was when they had a one lousy single 2021 first round pick.

In 2022: They. Have. THREE.

One of them is from Miami. As of today they're 3-7.........

The QB talks will continue in 2022. Increasing, ever so steadily and they will not stop until they draft another QB.

By unwritten law, that 1st rounder will run 2nd round Jalen Hurts all the way out of town.

Because Dallas isn't going anywhere.

And the Eagles and Howie Roseman do not believe in long rebuilds. Howie had blatantly stated that. It's not what they do. The year they won the superbowl was a miraculous quick turn around and boom - champions. Roseman feels confident that he can do it again.

Take all this info and digest it thoroughly. Because as much as I like Jalen Hurts, the young leader & competitor, all these things already set forth in motion and spell doom for the young QB.

Get out while you can while his price is still high.

[Pullo Vision]

Get out while you can while his price is still high.

In this situation, what does that mean? At the deadline, a team put Hurts OTB for a 1st. No takers. Is a late 2nd and, say, Gabriel Davis "high"?

I think Hurts has shown enough to get a chance and be flipped like Rosen. I don't think he's doomed to be an NFL bench player for the rest of his career.

[frerichs5]

I flipped him earlier this week in SF for Tannehill and Etienne. Thought that was good value. Team buying him is a very strong contender though. Not sure if most teams would give that or not.

[halfbaked88]

I flipped him earlier this week in SF for Tannehill and Etienne. Thought that was good value. Team buying him is a very strong contender though. Not sure if most teams would give that or not.

Traded Jalen Hurts for Kittle. Then sold Kittle+ for TLaw+

[halfbaked88]

Get out while you can while his price is still high.

In this situation, what does that mean? At the deadline, a team put Hurts OTB for a 1st. No takers. Is a late 2nd and, say, Gabriel Davis "high"?

I think Hurts has shown enough to get a chance and be flipped like Rosen. I don't think he's doomed to be an NFL bench player for the rest of his career.

Is this superflex? Should be able to pull higher return. Late 2nd and Gabe Davis good lord that's nothing. Hold at that price. If I'm not contending and not ready to absorb Hurts risk at the end of the year I can see myself trading him for Baker, DJones, Zach Wilson or Tua +anything extra and feeling much more confident I'll at least have a starting QB.

I don't think Hurts is done in the league he'll find a job somewhere else and get a 2nd chance. But we see how short the leash is when that happens. They'll be so many needy teams next year and the QB class is thought to be shallow so somebody will grab him. Will he start? Or maybe take the Winston route? Who knows. I hate that uncertainty.

I just don't gamble with these things in dynasty. I don't like when players get their legs chopped off and end up without jobs so I put a premium on draft capital and job security.

[Pullo Vision]

Get out while you can while his price is still high.

In this situation, what does that mean? At the deadline, a team put Hurts OTB for a 1st. No takers. Is a late 2nd and, say, Gabriel Davis "high"?

I think Hurts has shown enough to get a chance and be flipped like Rosen. I don't think he's doomed to be an NFL bench player for the rest of his career.

Is this superflex? Should be able to pull higher return. Late 2nd and Gabe Davis good lord that's nothing. Hold at that price. If I'm not contending and not ready to absorb Hurts risk at the end of the year I can see myself trading him for Baker, DJones, Zach Wilson or Tua +anything extra and feeling much more confident I'll at least have a starting QB.

I don't think Hurts is done in the league he'll find a job somewhere else and get a 2nd chance. But we see how short the leash is when that happens. They'll be so many needy teams next year and the QB class is thought to be shallow so somebody will grab him. Will he start? Or maybe take the Winston route? Who knows. I hate that uncertainty.

I just don't gamble with these things in dynasty. I don't like when players get their legs chopped off and end up without jobs so I put a premium on draft capital and job security.

Nope, it was 1 QB. There weren't many contenders looking for QB help, so it was interesting to see the price dictated like that and then not sell. You'd think a non-playoff team would sell for what value they could get, if they had long term doubts. They either don't have those doubts or they misplayed negotiations, which would be useful info in future negotiations.

In shallower leagues, totally see being concerned and selling Hurts for what you could. In deeper leagues, I'd hold and gamble, given his proven ceiling.