TJ Hockenson thread

[Pullo Vision]

Making a Hock specific thread.

He blew up beginning of 2021 with little WR target competition, comeback/garbage script and Goff's conservative tendency.

Week 3, they face Baltimore. After getting ripped 2 consecutive weeks by Waller and Kelce, they put the clamps on Hockenson.

Week 1- 11 targets, 97 yards and a TD
Week 2- 9 targets, 66 yards, 1 TD
Week 3- 2 targets, 10 yards, 0 TD

I'll be curious if Baltimore created a scheme other teams can replicate to sideline/marginalize Hock.

[Anteaters]

It wasn't necessarily Baltimore's D. I don't think Hock is going to ball out every week, or even most weeks. I like Hockenson as much as any of the eight 3rd tier TEs (Waller/Kelce are 1st, Kittle is 2nd). He'll have his boom games and his bust games, and he'll end the season in the general vicinity of 650-750yds/5-8TDs.

There are only two actual stud TEs. There is a third who has potential (talent+situation) to get close to them, but never puts in a season's worth of work. I've come to accept that every TE on the next level is interchangeable. Andrews is in that bunch. Hock is in that bunch. Fant is in that bunch. None of them will produce as much as a healthy Kittle, much less the big2. Sad but true - owning Hock/Fant/Andrews is the same as owning Gesicki/Logan/Shultz. The only possible exception I see this year is Gronk.

All of us who don't have one of the big2 should accept our TE fate of week-to-week uncertainty. That means a lot of and an occasional

[ArrylT]

Just glad Hockenson has his own thread.

[StripesOfKC]

It wasn't necessarily Baltimore's D. I don't think Hock is going to ball out every week, or even most weeks. I like Hockenson as much as any of the eight 3rd tier TEs (Waller/Kelce are 1st, Kittle is 2nd). He'll have his boom games and his bust games, and he'll end the season in the general vicinity of 650-750yds/5-8TDs.

There are only two actual stud TEs. There is a third who has potential (talent+situation) to get close to them, but never puts in a season's worth of work. I've come to accept that every TE on the next level is interchangeable. Andrews is in that bunch. Hock is in that bunch. Fant is in that bunch. None of them will produce as much as a healthy Kittle, much less the big2. Sad but true - owning Hock/Fant/Andrews is the same as owning Gesicki/Logan/Shultz. The only possible exception I see this year is Gronk.

All of us who don't have one of the big2 should accept our TE fate of week-to-week uncertainty. That means a lot of and an occasional

Hock>Kittle

Not really close for me either in the league I own both

Comparing to scrubs like Gesicki is just disrespectful

[Ice]

I expect him to be TE3 this year so he needs to step it up a bit.

[PR0v3]

It wasn't necessarily Baltimore's D. I don't think Hock is going to ball out every week, or even most weeks. I like Hockenson as much as any of the eight 3rd tier TEs (Waller/Kelce are 1st, Kittle is 2nd). He'll have his boom games and his bust games, and he'll end the season in the general vicinity of 650-750yds/5-8TDs.

There are only two actual stud TEs. There is a third who has potential (talent+situation) to get close to them, but never puts in a season's worth of work. I've come to accept that every TE on the next level is interchangeable. Andrews is in that bunch. Hock is in that bunch. Fant is in that bunch. None of them will produce as much as a healthy Kittle, much less the big2. Sad but true - owning Hock/Fant/Andrews is the same as owning Gesicki/Logan/Shultz. The only possible exception I see this year is Gronk.

All of us who don't have one of the big2 should accept our TE fate of week-to-week uncertainty. That means a lot of and an occasional

Hock>Kittle

Not really close for me either in the league I own both

Comparing to scrubs like Gesicki is just disrespectful

Gesicki and Mark Andrews are identical producers. What do you think about Andrews?

Hock is a tier above both though, I agree.

[Anteaters]

2020
Hock: Tar 101, Rec 67, Yds 723, TD 6
Gesicki: Tar 85, Rec 53, Yds 703, TD 6
Andrews: Tar 88, Rec 58, Yds 701, TD 7

2021 so far
Hock: Tar 22, Rec 18, Yds 173, TD 2
Gesicki: Tar 31, Rec 13, Yds 127, TD 0
Andrews: Tar 17, Rec 13, Yds 186, TD 0

The numbers from 2020 look eerily similar. Hock had slightly higher targets, but his production was basically the same.

The 2021 numbers gives Hock a slight edge in TDs so far, but I'll bet they end up as close as last year in TDs. Gesicki has 50% more targets than Hock, but as with the TDs I expect that to average out closer to the other two by the end of the season.

Looking at the facts, it makes little sense to target any of these guys 5 rounds before another of these guys. Hype and hope are not the best indicators.

Stats don't lie.

[StripesOfKC]

2020
Hock: Tar 101, Rec 67, Yds 723, TD 6
Gesicki: Tar 85, Rec 53, Yds 703, TD 6
Andrews: Tar 88, Rec 58, Yds 701, TD 7

2021 so far
Hock: Tar 22, Rec 18, Yds 173, TD 2
Gesicki: Tar 31, Rec 13, Yds 127, TD 0
Andrews: Tar 17, Rec 13, Yds 186, TD 0

The numbers from 2020 look eerily similar. Hock had slightly higher targets, but his production was basically the same.

The 2021 numbers gives Hock a slight edge in TDs so far, but I'll bet they end up as close as last year in TDs. Gesicki has 50% more targets than Hock, but as with the TDs I expect that to average out closer to the other two by the end of the season.

Looking at the facts, it makes little sense to target any of these guys 5 rounds before another of these guys. Hype and hope are not the best indicators.

Stats don't lie.

Now put up Hockenson, Kittle and Waller's stats from this year

[StripesOfKC]

It wasn't necessarily Baltimore's D. I don't think Hock is going to ball out every week, or even most weeks. I like Hockenson as much as any of the eight 3rd tier TEs (Waller/Kelce are 1st, Kittle is 2nd). He'll have his boom games and his bust games, and he'll end the season in the general vicinity of 650-750yds/5-8TDs.

There are only two actual stud TEs. There is a third who has potential (talent+situation) to get close to them, but never puts in a season's worth of work. I've come to accept that every TE on the next level is interchangeable. Andrews is in that bunch. Hock is in that bunch. Fant is in that bunch. None of them will produce as much as a healthy Kittle, much less the big2. Sad but true - owning Hock/Fant/Andrews is the same as owning Gesicki/Logan/Shultz. The only possible exception I see this year is Gronk.

All of us who don't have one of the big2 should accept our TE fate of week-to-week uncertainty. That means a lot of and an occasional

Hock>Kittle

Not really close for me either in the league I own both

Comparing to scrubs like Gesicki is just disrespectful

Gesicki and Mark Andrews are identical producers. What do you think about Andrews?

Hock is a tier above both though, I agree.

Not a ton. He isn't someone I'd ever target in dynasty startups or redraft and he'd be a clear tier below Hock

But I still rate him above Gesicki because he hasn't been as dependent on WR injuries to produce (Gesicki's splits the last two years with and without Preston Williams are not good) and there is some upside as 2019 showed that he can pop in the TDs department and the Ravens passing volume is so low that there is pretty much nowhere to go but up

That said post Bateman I was still on the sell Andrews bandwagon and with him coming back I think it's as good a time as any to try to again

Paying an premium price for Andrews (except in TE premium) is--in most cases--paying to feel better about your TE spot

[Anteaters]

Now put up Hockenson, Kittle and Waller's stats from this year

2020
Hock: Tar 101, Rec 67, Yds 723, TD 6
Kittle: Tar 63, Rec 48, Yds 634, TD 2
Waller: Tar 145, Rec 107, Tds 1196, TD 9

2021
Hock: Tar 22, Rec 18, Yds 173, TD 2
Kittle: Tar 18, Rec 15, Yds 187, TD 0
Waller: Tar 33, Rec 20, Yds 224, TD 1

What's telling is that in half the 2020 games Hock played, Kittle had nearly as many yards because of a much higher ypc and a better catch %. Also, in 2021, Kittle's catch % is far above Hock's catch %. Once again, in 2021 Kittle has a higher ypc than Hock.

Waller is clearly several levels above Hock - no one would dispute that. There is not a soul in the fantasy football world that would give up Waller straight up to get Hock. Notice Waller has 50% more targets than Hock (in both '20 and '21) indicating his relative higher importance in their teams' offensive gameplans.

Waller >> Kittlle > Hock.

[Vcize]

Now put up Hockenson, Kittle and Waller's stats from this year

2020
Hock: Tar 101, Rec 67, Yds 723, TD 6
Kittle: Tar 63, Rec 48, Yds 634, TD 2
Waller: Tar 145, Rec 107, Tds 1196, TD 9

2021
Hock: Tar 22, Rec 18, Yds 173, TD 2
Kittle: Tar 18, Rec 15, Yds 187, TD 0
Waller: Tar 33, Rec 20, Yds 224, TD 1

What's telling is that in half the 2020 games Hock played, Kittle had nearly as many yards because of a much higher ypc and a better catch %. Also, in 2021, Kittle's catch % is far above Hock's catch %. Once again, in 2021 Kittle has a higher ypc than Hock.

Waller is clearly several levels above Hock - no one would dispute that. There is not a soul in the fantasy football world that would give up Waller straight up to get Hock. Notice Waller has 50% more targets than Hock (in both '20 and '21) indicating his relative higher importance in their teams' offensive gameplans.

Waller >> Kittlle > Hock.

Of course there is. The two are within 2% of each other on KTC which means plenty of people on there are ranking Hock above Waller.

[FantasyFreak]

Now put up Hockenson, Kittle and Waller's stats from this year

2020
Hock: Tar 101, Rec 67, Yds 723, TD 6
Kittle: Tar 63, Rec 48, Yds 634, TD 2
Waller: Tar 145, Rec 107, Tds 1196, TD 9

2021
Hock: Tar 22, Rec 18, Yds 173, TD 2
Kittle: Tar 18, Rec 15, Yds 187, TD 0
Waller: Tar 33, Rec 20, Yds 224, TD 1

What's telling is that in half the 2020 games Hock played, Kittle had nearly as many yards because of a much higher ypc and a better catch %. Also, in 2021, Kittle's catch % is far above Hock's catch %. Once again, in 2021 Kittle has a higher ypc than Hock.

Waller is clearly several levels above Hock - no one would dispute that. There is not a soul in the fantasy football world that would give up Waller straight up to get Hock. Notice Waller has 50% more targets than Hock (in both '20 and '21) indicating his relative higher importance in their teams' offensive gameplans.

Waller >> Kittlle > Hock.

Of course there is. The two are within 2% of each other on KTC which means plenty of people on there are ranking Hock above Waller.

For sure. Especially when you consider age. Waller is a beast, but I wouldn't fault anybody for taking Hock due to the age gap. I'd take Hock over Kittle, myself. I think he outscores him this year, and is significantly younger.

[Anteaters]

I think a lot of people would prefer Kittle, but I'd take Hock over Kittle because of injury concerns.

Gotta say I'm a little surprised anyone thinks Hock is a better value than Waller. More than a little surprised. Even with the age difference, Waller has proven he is so much better. If I'm trying to win, I don't see how I wouldn't prefer 2 seasons of Waller to 5 good-not-great seasons of Hock.

Honest questions for the Hock fans - do you really think Hock is going to start averaging ~100 receptions/yr and 1100-1200 yds/yr? Do you really think that his numbers are not at risk for season-over-season decrease because of being in a new offense headed by a new coach with a lesser QB?

I'm not trying to be funny or sarcastic or what not. Just trying to understand why Hock is viewed as significantly better than any other TE4-10?

I don't think Hock is garbage. I think he's a very good TE. Just trying to understand why some people have him far ahead in 3yr projections compared to Goedert/Fant/Gesicki/Andrews/etc. What is it about Hock's situation+talent that puts him on a trajectory to match stats with Waller/Kelce? I must be missing something and with the relatively low values on Hock in my leagues (compared to the TEs I think are elite, Kelce/Waller,) I'd love to have a reason to pick him up cheap.

[StripesOfKC]

I think a lot of people would prefer Kittle, but I'd take Hock over Kittle because of injury concerns.

Gotta say I'm a little surprised anyone thinks Hock is a better value than Waller. More than a little surprised. Even with the age difference, Waller has proven he is so much better. If I'm trying to win, I don't see how I wouldn't prefer 2 seasons of Waller to 5 good-not-great seasons of Hock.

Honest questions for the Hock fans - do you really think Hock is going to start averaging ~100 receptions/yr and 1100-1200 yds/yr? Do you really think that his numbers are not at risk for season-over-season decrease because of being in a new offense headed by a new coach with a lesser QB?

I'm not trying to be funny or sarcastic or what not. Just trying to understand why Hock is viewed as significantly better than any other TE4-10?

I don't think Hock is garbage. I think he's a very good TE. Just trying to understand why some people have him far ahead in 3yr projections compared to Goedert/Fant/Gesicki/Andrews/etc. What about Hock's situation+talent puts him on a trajectory to match stats with Waller/Kelce? I must be missing something and with the relatively low values on Hock (compared to the guys I think are elite, Kelce/Waller,) I'd love to have a reason to pick him up cheap.

You seem to think that the elite TE tier is fixed and no one can ever enter or exit it

Most others seem to think this is the year Hock enters it. Early returns have only confirmed their belief

His advanced stats this year are also pure fire:

2nd among TEs in routes run, 2nd in slot snaps, 23.6% air yards share, 30.9% dominator rating, high PFF receiving grade in line with the elites at the position (besides Kelce)

I'd be 3-0 right now if I'd just started Hock every week in the league I have him and Kittle

Team will be throwing a lot and their WR room will take a long time to fix

I would not take over Waller though unless it's a full out rebuild like of an orphan

[Anteaters]

Thanks for the response.