Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?
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Re: Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?
Diontae is fools gold. Great route runner, but seems to be plague by injuries and the dropsies. I sold high already, and will be avoiding the Steelers offense in fantasy.
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Re: Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?
Curious on the specifics of selling high.gogobradyarm wrote: ↑Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:21 am Diontae is fools gold. Great route runner, but seems to be plague by injuries and the dropsies. I sold high already, and will be avoiding the Steelers offense in fantasy.
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Re: Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?
Could be right, but hes only missed 4 games due to injury(started 3 of those, only sat once) in 32 career games. Not ready to label him injury prone, but if tomlin keeps putting him on punt returns I may be quicker to change my mind.gogobradyarm wrote: ↑Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:21 am Diontae is fools gold. Great route runner, but seems to be plague by injuries and the dropsies. I sold high already, and will be avoiding the Steelers offense in fantasy.
Re: Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?
Yea, idk. He came into the season dealing with a calf injury which might've affected his ability to avoid big hits (which he tends to do a very good job of).CGW wrote: ↑Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:13 amCould be right, but hes only missed 4 games due to injury(started 3 of those, only sat once) in 32 career games. Not ready to label him injury prone, but if tomlin keeps putting him on punt returns I may be quicker to change my mind.gogobradyarm wrote: ↑Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:21 am Diontae is fools gold. Great route runner, but seems to be plague by injuries and the dropsies. I sold high already, and will be avoiding the Steelers offense in fantasy.
I get this take. Efficiency metrics are not good and Big Ben looks cooked.. but I just can't agree he's a sell high given where most people rank him right now and where I see his career trajectory going. Part of the reason his efficiency stats are so poor is Big Ben's play (no WR is killing it in efficiency) and while his drops have been a problem his whole career I have more faith in a WR mitigating this weakness if they're focus drops rather than poor technique or squeamishness. Diontae makes some very, very tough catches.
Big Ben coming back next season actually makes it more likely his volume remains "really really good"; and the Steelers are a quality organization that I have more than a little faith will be able to adequately replace Ben if need be. Maybe he takes a step back next year and is a WR2 in ppg he starts rather than the 20ppg monster he's been this year but that's about where he's valued right now anyway with the potential to increase if the Steelers get adequate QB play out of Big Ben or a replacement down the line.
Re: Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?
Oh I'm with you entirely. I doubt anyone is going to pay what I'd want to sell him. Hes on my block in one league where I'm super deep, but so far the offers have been pooh. I'm going to need to see the 1.04 or better so I could take Lawrence, Chase, or top 2 RBs...and I just dont see it happening.Sriracha wrote: ↑Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:11 pmYea, idk. He came into the season dealing with a calf injury which might've affected his ability to avoid big hits (which he tends to do a very good job of).CGW wrote: ↑Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:13 amCould be right, but hes only missed 4 games due to injury(started 3 of those, only sat once) in 32 career games. Not ready to label him injury prone, but if tomlin keeps putting him on punt returns I may be quicker to change my mind.gogobradyarm wrote: ↑Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:21 am Diontae is fools gold. Great route runner, but seems to be plague by injuries and the dropsies. I sold high already, and will be avoiding the Steelers offense in fantasy.
I get this take. Efficiency metrics are not good and Big Ben looks cooked.. but I just can't agree he's a sell high given where most people rank him right now and where I see his career trajectory going. Part of the reason his efficiency stats are so poor is Big Ben's play (no WR is killing it in efficiency) and while his drops have been a problem his whole career I have more faith in a WR mitigating this weakness if they're focus drops rather than poor technique or squeamishness. Diontae makes some very, very tough catches.
Big Ben coming back next season actually makes it more likely his volume remains "really really good"; and the Steelers are a quality organization that I have more than a little faith will be able to adequately replace Ben if need be. Maybe he takes a step back next year and is a WR2 in ppg he starts rather than the 20ppg monster he's been this year but that's about where he's valued right now anyway with the potential to increase if the Steelers get adequate QB play out of Big Ben or a replacement down the line.
Re: Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?
I'd definitely sell for a top 4 in SF. Maybe even 5 or 6 knowing that another QB or RB will emerge. Chase is the only rookie WR I'd take over Diontae at the moment but I could see some jumping into Diontae's range. I think I said before, he's probably a hold unless you're packaging or trading for another position. If Ben does come back, I don't see Johnson's usage changing much. I do worry about him being a target hog long term though. Has Landry written all over himCGW wrote: ↑Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:24 pmOh I'm with you entirely. I doubt anyone is going to pay what I'd want to sell him. Hes on my block in one league where I'm super deep, but so far the offers have been pooh. I'm going to need to see the 1.04 or better so I could take Lawrence, Chase, or top 2 RBs...and I just dont see it happening.Sriracha wrote: ↑Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:11 pmYea, idk. He came into the season dealing with a calf injury which might've affected his ability to avoid big hits (which he tends to do a very good job of).
I get this take. Efficiency metrics are not good and Big Ben looks cooked.. but I just can't agree he's a sell high given where most people rank him right now and where I see his career trajectory going. Part of the reason his efficiency stats are so poor is Big Ben's play (no WR is killing it in efficiency) and while his drops have been a problem his whole career I have more faith in a WR mitigating this weakness if they're focus drops rather than poor technique or squeamishness. Diontae makes some very, very tough catches.
Big Ben coming back next season actually makes it more likely his volume remains "really really good"; and the Steelers are a quality organization that I have more than a little faith will be able to adequately replace Ben if need be. Maybe he takes a step back next year and is a WR2 in ppg he starts rather than the 20ppg monster he's been this year but that's about where he's valued right now anyway with the potential to increase if the Steelers get adequate QB play out of Big Ben or a replacement down the line.
Diontae Johnson?
Where do we rank him as a WR? Was the 2nd half of last year a sign of things to come or was it just luck?
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Re: Diontae Johnson?
Diontae will be fine from a drops standpoint. He finished the season off with a solid game in the playoffs, when they obviously trusted him as their playmaker. Hes WR28 on DFLs rankings. Finished last season as WR21 in total PPG on PPR setups. Sounds about right.
His value is going to hinge on Juju in the near term and who the Steelers bring in as Big Ben's replacement long term. If Juju stays I think he's a WR2. If juju leaves I could see him and claypool both flirting with WR1 numbers in PPR.
His value is going to hinge on Juju in the near term and who the Steelers bring in as Big Ben's replacement long term. If Juju stays I think he's a WR2. If juju leaves I could see him and claypool both flirting with WR1 numbers in PPR.
Re: Diontae Johnson?
I think he'll settle in as a Jamison Crowder clone. They are virtually identical players physically, analytically, and statistically, but Johnson benefitted from playing on the #1 most pass happy team in the league in 2020. Once the team passing volume regresses DJ will lose most of his fantasy relevance/value.
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Re: Diontae Johnson?
This is an insanely bad comp.PR0v3 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:23 pm I think he'll settle in as a Jamison Crowder clone. They are virtually identical players physically, analytically, and statistically, but Johnson benefitted from playing on the #1 most pass happy team in the league in 2020. Once the team passing volume regresses DJ will lose most of his fantasy relevance/value.
Their games are nothing alike. Crowder is a slot receiver. Diontae plays outside, runs much crisper routes, is much better vs press coverage and is far more dynamic in space.
Re: Diontae Johnson?
In the second half of the season (8 games + the playoff game) Johnson totaled 68 receptions, 730 yards, and 4 TDs, good for ~18.5 PPG and top 5? in scoring in PPR formats.
In this first 8 games of the season, he had 4 games where he averaged 19.3 PPG and totaled 29 receptions, 306 yards, and 3 TDs. In the other 4 games, he missed 1, got injured in the first quarter in 3 others.
In the 13 games that he fully played this season, he averaged 18.6 PPG good for WR 5 in PPG on the season. He also totaled: 97 receptions, 1036 yards, and 7 TDs in those games, good for 120 receptions, 1275 yards, and 9 TDs!!
Did he benefit from a great target share in an extremely pass-heavy offense? Sure. Did he suffer from some pretty terrible drops? Yes. But he also made many great plays this year, and arguably suffered in the role the steelers used him in bc of big ben's arm and his inability to throw deep consistently. Regardless, WR 28 is an insult.
In this first 8 games of the season, he had 4 games where he averaged 19.3 PPG and totaled 29 receptions, 306 yards, and 3 TDs. In the other 4 games, he missed 1, got injured in the first quarter in 3 others.
In the 13 games that he fully played this season, he averaged 18.6 PPG good for WR 5 in PPG on the season. He also totaled: 97 receptions, 1036 yards, and 7 TDs in those games, good for 120 receptions, 1275 yards, and 9 TDs!!
Did he benefit from a great target share in an extremely pass-heavy offense? Sure. Did he suffer from some pretty terrible drops? Yes. But he also made many great plays this year, and arguably suffered in the role the steelers used him in bc of big ben's arm and his inability to throw deep consistently. Regardless, WR 28 is an insult.
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Re: Diontae Johnson?
I'm talking about a Crowder clone from a fantasy value/statistical perspective. Diontae may line up outside and Crowder inside, but Crowder averages more yards per reception and target, more yards per route run, and has a lower drop rate. 55% of DJ's targets are <5 yards compared to 43% for Crowder, and of targets >10 yards, Crowder (26% of total targets) averages 11.6 yards compared to 10.5 for DJ (25% of total targets).Sriracha wrote: ↑Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:39 pmThis is an insanely bad comp.PR0v3 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:23 pm I think he'll settle in as a Jamison Crowder clone. They are virtually identical players physically, analytically, and statistically, but Johnson benefitted from playing on the #1 most pass happy team in the league in 2020. Once the team passing volume regresses DJ will lose most of his fantasy relevance/value.
Their games are nothing alike. Crowder is a slot receiver. Diontae plays outside, runs much crisper routes, is much better vs press coverage and is far more dynamic in space.
DJ may line up outside, but like Crowder, he is a 10 yards or less (or, more often, 5 yards or less) type of receiver that needs league leading passing volume from his offense to produce fantasy relevant numbers.
DJ on a non-type 5 passing volume offense is mostly going to be a 5 catch 50 yard type of guy. He's a third round pick with bottom tier physical attributes that was bolstered by the #1 passing volume offense in the league in 2020. Like Crowder, there's nothing particularly special about his game, he's a situational play.
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Re: Diontae Johnson?
You're numbers are fine, but I think the reasoning behind them is a little flawed.PR0v3 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:10 pm I'm talking about a Crowder clone from a fantasy value/statistical perspective. Diontae may line up outside and Crowder inside, but Crowder averages more yards per reception and target, more yards per route run, and has a lower drop rate. 55% of DJ's targets are <5 yards compared to 43% for Crowder, and of targets >10 yards, Crowder (26% of total targets) averages 11.6 yards compared to 10.5 for DJ (25% of total targets).
DJ may line up outside, but like Crowder, he is a 10 yards or less (or, more often, 5 yards or less) type of receiver that needs league leading passing volume from his offense to produce fantasy relevant numbers.
DJ on a non-type 5 passing volume offense is mostly going to be a 5 catch 50 yard type of guy. He's a third round pick with bottom tier physical attributes that was bolstered by the #1 passing volume offense in the league in 2020. Like Crowder, there's nothing particularly special about his game, he's a situational play.
Yes, Johnson's targets are primarily of the short variety, but that's the type of passing game Pittsburgh employed more often than not due to the declining arm of their QB. Pair Johnson with someone who can reliably deliver the ball downfield and I think you'd see his ADOT rise.
I could be wrong. But feel that your argument reveals more about the flaws in Ben's game at this point than Johnson's shortcomings as a WR. Guess we'll find out though when Ben retires, or Johnson finds himself with another team.
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Re: Diontae Johnson?
I agree, his low ADot is a product of the system protecting Big Ben. We will find out in a year or two how this plays out.Shoreline Steamers wrote: ↑Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:26 pmYou're numbers are fine, but I think the reasoning behind them is a little flawed.PR0v3 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:10 pm I'm talking about a Crowder clone from a fantasy value/statistical perspective. Diontae may line up outside and Crowder inside, but Crowder averages more yards per reception and target, more yards per route run, and has a lower drop rate. 55% of DJ's targets are <5 yards compared to 43% for Crowder, and of targets >10 yards, Crowder (26% of total targets) averages 11.6 yards compared to 10.5 for DJ (25% of total targets).
DJ may line up outside, but like Crowder, he is a 10 yards or less (or, more often, 5 yards or less) type of receiver that needs league leading passing volume from his offense to produce fantasy relevant numbers.
DJ on a non-type 5 passing volume offense is mostly going to be a 5 catch 50 yard type of guy. He's a third round pick with bottom tier physical attributes that was bolstered by the #1 passing volume offense in the league in 2020. Like Crowder, there's nothing particularly special about his game, he's a situational play.
Yes, Johnson's targets are primarily of the short variety, but that's the type of passing game Pittsburgh employed more often than not due to the declining arm of their QB. Pair Johnson with someone who can reliably deliver the ball downfield and I think you'd see his ADOT rise.
I could be wrong. But feel that your argument reveals more about the flaws in Ben's game at this point than Johnson's shortcomings as a WR. Guess we'll find out though when Ben retires, or Johnson finds himself with another team.
Either way, not a big fan of the Crowder comp. Nothing against Crowder but Diontae has already put up more yards than Crowder's best season. Diontae only ran 7% of his snaps out of the slot in 2020. I'm of the opinion that Diontae is one of the better route runners out there and separates with the best of them. Guys who run good routes, beat press coverage, and routinely get good separation will get targets regardless of the QB situation.
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Re: Diontae Johnson?
Are we doing this again???
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