Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
User avatar
gogobradyarm
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1682
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2015 8:39 am
Location: Twitter.com/DrEvilsDynasty
Contact:

Re: Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?

Postby gogobradyarm » Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:21 am

Diontae is fools gold. Great route runner, but seems to be plague by injuries and the dropsies. I sold high already, and will be avoiding the Steelers offense in fantasy.
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Kupp, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton

2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Champ: 2020, 2021
Year 9 of my league

PTW32
Captain
Captain
Posts: 789
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:13 pm

Re: Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?

Postby PTW32 » Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:27 am

gogobradyarm wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:21 am Diontae is fools gold. Great route runner, but seems to be plague by injuries and the dropsies. I sold high already, and will be avoiding the Steelers offense in fantasy.
Curious on the specifics of selling high.
Team 1 10 Team PPR QB, 2RB, 3WR, 2TE, 3Flex

QB: Feilds, Lance, Stafford
RB: Javonte, Charbonnet
WR: Godwin, Boyd, Aiyuk, Mingo, Downs
TE: Kincaid, Kraft, Schoonmaker

Team 2 10 Team PPR QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 3Flex
QB: Lamar, Baker
RB: Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Ekeler, Sanders, Dillon, Pierce
WR: Diggs, Hill, Lockett, Addison
TE: Andrews, Hurst, Logan Thomas

Team 3 12 Team PPR (keep 16)
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 3Flex

QB: Kyler, Feilds
RB: CMC, Javonte, Dobbins, Dillo, Brian Robinson
WR: AJB, Godwin, DJ Moore, Keenan, Lamb, Burks, Toney
TE: Kittle, Hockenson

CGW
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6544
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:31 pm

Re: Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?

Postby CGW » Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:13 am

gogobradyarm wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:21 am Diontae is fools gold. Great route runner, but seems to be plague by injuries and the dropsies. I sold high already, and will be avoiding the Steelers offense in fantasy.
Could be right, but hes only missed 4 games due to injury(started 3 of those, only sat once) in 32 career games. Not ready to label him injury prone, but if tomlin keeps putting him on punt returns I may be quicker to change my mind.

Sriracha
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3698
Joined: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:38 pm

Re: Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?

Postby Sriracha » Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:11 pm

CGW wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:13 am
gogobradyarm wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:21 am Diontae is fools gold. Great route runner, but seems to be plague by injuries and the dropsies. I sold high already, and will be avoiding the Steelers offense in fantasy.
Could be right, but hes only missed 4 games due to injury(started 3 of those, only sat once) in 32 career games. Not ready to label him injury prone, but if tomlin keeps putting him on punt returns I may be quicker to change my mind.
Yea, idk. He came into the season dealing with a calf injury which might've affected his ability to avoid big hits (which he tends to do a very good job of).

I get this take. Efficiency metrics are not good and Big Ben looks cooked.. but I just can't agree he's a sell high given where most people rank him right now and where I see his career trajectory going. Part of the reason his efficiency stats are so poor is Big Ben's play (no WR is killing it in efficiency) and while his drops have been a problem his whole career I have more faith in a WR mitigating this weakness if they're focus drops rather than poor technique or squeamishness. Diontae makes some very, very tough catches.

Big Ben coming back next season actually makes it more likely his volume remains "really really good"; and the Steelers are a quality organization that I have more than a little faith will be able to adequately replace Ben if need be. Maybe he takes a step back next year and is a WR2 in ppg he starts rather than the 20ppg monster he's been this year but that's about where he's valued right now anyway with the potential to increase if the Steelers get adequate QB play out of Big Ben or a replacement down the line.

CGW
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6544
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:31 pm

Re: Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?

Postby CGW » Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:24 pm

Sriracha wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:11 pm
CGW wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:13 am
gogobradyarm wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:21 am Diontae is fools gold. Great route runner, but seems to be plague by injuries and the dropsies. I sold high already, and will be avoiding the Steelers offense in fantasy.
Could be right, but hes only missed 4 games due to injury(started 3 of those, only sat once) in 32 career games. Not ready to label him injury prone, but if tomlin keeps putting him on punt returns I may be quicker to change my mind.
Yea, idk. He came into the season dealing with a calf injury which might've affected his ability to avoid big hits (which he tends to do a very good job of).

I get this take. Efficiency metrics are not good and Big Ben looks cooked.. but I just can't agree he's a sell high given where most people rank him right now and where I see his career trajectory going. Part of the reason his efficiency stats are so poor is Big Ben's play (no WR is killing it in efficiency) and while his drops have been a problem his whole career I have more faith in a WR mitigating this weakness if they're focus drops rather than poor technique or squeamishness. Diontae makes some very, very tough catches.

Big Ben coming back next season actually makes it more likely his volume remains "really really good"; and the Steelers are a quality organization that I have more than a little faith will be able to adequately replace Ben if need be. Maybe he takes a step back next year and is a WR2 in ppg he starts rather than the 20ppg monster he's been this year but that's about where he's valued right now anyway with the potential to increase if the Steelers get adequate QB play out of Big Ben or a replacement down the line.
Oh I'm with you entirely. I doubt anyone is going to pay what I'd want to sell him. Hes on my block in one league where I'm super deep, but so far the offers have been pooh. I'm going to need to see the 1.04 or better so I could take Lawrence, Chase, or top 2 RBs...and I just dont see it happening.

Jigga94
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 16062
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:38 pm

Re: Diontae Johnson is...... maybe really really good?

Postby Jigga94 » Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:29 pm

CGW wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:24 pm
Sriracha wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:11 pm
CGW wrote: Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:13 am

Could be right, but hes only missed 4 games due to injury(started 3 of those, only sat once) in 32 career games. Not ready to label him injury prone, but if tomlin keeps putting him on punt returns I may be quicker to change my mind.
Yea, idk. He came into the season dealing with a calf injury which might've affected his ability to avoid big hits (which he tends to do a very good job of).

I get this take. Efficiency metrics are not good and Big Ben looks cooked.. but I just can't agree he's a sell high given where most people rank him right now and where I see his career trajectory going. Part of the reason his efficiency stats are so poor is Big Ben's play (no WR is killing it in efficiency) and while his drops have been a problem his whole career I have more faith in a WR mitigating this weakness if they're focus drops rather than poor technique or squeamishness. Diontae makes some very, very tough catches.

Big Ben coming back next season actually makes it more likely his volume remains "really really good"; and the Steelers are a quality organization that I have more than a little faith will be able to adequately replace Ben if need be. Maybe he takes a step back next year and is a WR2 in ppg he starts rather than the 20ppg monster he's been this year but that's about where he's valued right now anyway with the potential to increase if the Steelers get adequate QB play out of Big Ben or a replacement down the line.
Oh I'm with you entirely. I doubt anyone is going to pay what I'd want to sell him. Hes on my block in one league where I'm super deep, but so far the offers have been pooh. I'm going to need to see the 1.04 or better so I could take Lawrence, Chase, or top 2 RBs...and I just dont see it happening.
I'd definitely sell for a top 4 in SF. Maybe even 5 or 6 knowing that another QB or RB will emerge. Chase is the only rookie WR I'd take over Diontae at the moment but I could see some jumping into Diontae's range. I think I said before, he's probably a hold unless you're packaging or trading for another position. If Ben does come back, I don't see Johnson's usage changing much. I do worry about him being a target hog long term though. Has Landry written all over him

User avatar
joeday
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 17286
Joined: Wed May 18, 2011 8:50 am
Location: Hail to Pitt!
Contact:

Diontae Johnson?

Postby joeday » Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:47 pm

Where do we rank him as a WR? Was the 2nd half of last year a sign of things to come or was it just luck?
BERLIN BOMBERS (0 – 0)
1996 | 2005 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2017 – 🏆
1999 | 2000 | 2019 | 2020 – 🥈

14 team | 4 keepers | non ppr | est. 1996
QB –
RB – Christian McCaffrey | Josh Jacobs
WR – AJ Brown | CeeDee Lamb
TE –

ROCKY MOUNTAIN MASTODONS (0 – 0)
2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2020 – 🏆
2008 | 2012 | 2014 | 2019 – 🥈

12 team | 10 keepers | non ppr | est. 2001
QB – Joe Burrow
RB – Tony Pollard | Kenneth Walker III | Rhamondre Stevenson
WR – Justin Jefferson | Stefon Diggs | DK Metcalf | Tee Higgins | Jameson Williams
TE – Trey McBride

Overall 2024 Regular Season Record: 0 – 0

CGW
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6544
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:31 pm

Re: Diontae Johnson?

Postby CGW » Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:56 pm

Diontae will be fine from a drops standpoint. He finished the season off with a solid game in the playoffs, when they obviously trusted him as their playmaker. Hes WR28 on DFLs rankings. Finished last season as WR21 in total PPG on PPR setups. Sounds about right.

His value is going to hinge on Juju in the near term and who the Steelers bring in as Big Ben's replacement long term. If Juju stays I think he's a WR2. If juju leaves I could see him and claypool both flirting with WR1 numbers in PPR.

PR0v3
Captain
Captain
Posts: 781
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:58 pm

Re: Diontae Johnson?

Postby PR0v3 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:23 pm

I think he'll settle in as a Jamison Crowder clone. They are virtually identical players physically, analytically, and statistically, but Johnson benefitted from playing on the #1 most pass happy team in the league in 2020. Once the team passing volume regresses DJ will lose most of his fantasy relevance/value.
12 Team .5 PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB 20 man rosters, 5 man taxi est. 2018
QB: Dak, Pickett
RB: CMC, Taylor, Gibson, Dillon, Akers, Penny
WR: JJeff, Hollywood, Olave, Toney, Aiyuk, Jeudy, C. Davis, Boyd, C. Samuel,
TE: Njoku, Gesicki
2023 picks: 1.x, 2.x, 3.x, 4.x

Sriracha
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3698
Joined: Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:38 pm

Re: Diontae Johnson?

Postby Sriracha » Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:39 pm

PR0v3 wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:23 pm I think he'll settle in as a Jamison Crowder clone. They are virtually identical players physically, analytically, and statistically, but Johnson benefitted from playing on the #1 most pass happy team in the league in 2020. Once the team passing volume regresses DJ will lose most of his fantasy relevance/value.
This is an insanely bad comp.

Their games are nothing alike. Crowder is a slot receiver. Diontae plays outside, runs much crisper routes, is much better vs press coverage and is far more dynamic in space.

Kmani6
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1156
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:35 pm
Location: Princeton, NJ

Re: Diontae Johnson?

Postby Kmani6 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:56 pm

In the second half of the season (8 games + the playoff game) Johnson totaled 68 receptions, 730 yards, and 4 TDs, good for ~18.5 PPG and top 5? in scoring in PPR formats.

In this first 8 games of the season, he had 4 games where he averaged 19.3 PPG and totaled 29 receptions, 306 yards, and 3 TDs. In the other 4 games, he missed 1, got injured in the first quarter in 3 others.

In the 13 games that he fully played this season, he averaged 18.6 PPG good for WR 5 in PPG on the season. He also totaled: 97 receptions, 1036 yards, and 7 TDs in those games, good for 120 receptions, 1275 yards, and 9 TDs!!

Did he benefit from a great target share in an extremely pass-heavy offense? Sure. Did he suffer from some pretty terrible drops? Yes. But he also made many great plays this year, and arguably suffered in the role the steelers used him in bc of big ben's arm and his inability to throw deep consistently. Regardless, WR 28 is an insult.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Saquon Barkley , Breece Hall, Swift, Dobbins, Gibson, CEH
WR: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Jamarr Chase, DK Metcalf, Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy
TE: Travis Kelce

2023 Picks: 1.4, 1.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.6, 3.8

Dynasty Team 2:

10 Man, Half PPR, Double Flex

QB: Tua
RB: Barkley , Mixon, Javonte, Jacobs, CEH
WR: AJB, Tyreek, Lamb, Aiyuk, Bateman
TE: Kittle

2022 Picks: 1.5, 1.6, 2.3
2023 Picks: 2 x 1st, 2 x 2nd

PR0v3
Captain
Captain
Posts: 781
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:58 pm

Re: Diontae Johnson?

Postby PR0v3 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:10 pm

Sriracha wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:39 pm
PR0v3 wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:23 pm I think he'll settle in as a Jamison Crowder clone. They are virtually identical players physically, analytically, and statistically, but Johnson benefitted from playing on the #1 most pass happy team in the league in 2020. Once the team passing volume regresses DJ will lose most of his fantasy relevance/value.
This is an insanely bad comp.

Their games are nothing alike. Crowder is a slot receiver. Diontae plays outside, runs much crisper routes, is much better vs press coverage and is far more dynamic in space.
I'm talking about a Crowder clone from a fantasy value/statistical perspective. Diontae may line up outside and Crowder inside, but Crowder averages more yards per reception and target, more yards per route run, and has a lower drop rate. 55% of DJ's targets are <5 yards compared to 43% for Crowder, and of targets >10 yards, Crowder (26% of total targets) averages 11.6 yards compared to 10.5 for DJ (25% of total targets).

DJ may line up outside, but like Crowder, he is a 10 yards or less (or, more often, 5 yards or less) type of receiver that needs league leading passing volume from his offense to produce fantasy relevant numbers.

DJ on a non-type 5 passing volume offense is mostly going to be a 5 catch 50 yard type of guy. He's a third round pick with bottom tier physical attributes that was bolstered by the #1 passing volume offense in the league in 2020. Like Crowder, there's nothing particularly special about his game, he's a situational play.
12 Team .5 PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB 20 man rosters, 5 man taxi est. 2018
QB: Dak, Pickett
RB: CMC, Taylor, Gibson, Dillon, Akers, Penny
WR: JJeff, Hollywood, Olave, Toney, Aiyuk, Jeudy, C. Davis, Boyd, C. Samuel,
TE: Njoku, Gesicki
2023 picks: 1.x, 2.x, 3.x, 4.x

User avatar
Shoreline Steamers
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4681
Joined: Wed May 16, 2012 4:07 pm

Re: Diontae Johnson?

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:26 pm

PR0v3 wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:10 pm I'm talking about a Crowder clone from a fantasy value/statistical perspective. Diontae may line up outside and Crowder inside, but Crowder averages more yards per reception and target, more yards per route run, and has a lower drop rate. 55% of DJ's targets are <5 yards compared to 43% for Crowder, and of targets >10 yards, Crowder (26% of total targets) averages 11.6 yards compared to 10.5 for DJ (25% of total targets).

DJ may line up outside, but like Crowder, he is a 10 yards or less (or, more often, 5 yards or less) type of receiver that needs league leading passing volume from his offense to produce fantasy relevant numbers.

DJ on a non-type 5 passing volume offense is mostly going to be a 5 catch 50 yard type of guy. He's a third round pick with bottom tier physical attributes that was bolstered by the #1 passing volume offense in the league in 2020. Like Crowder, there's nothing particularly special about his game, he's a situational play.
You're numbers are fine, but I think the reasoning behind them is a little flawed.

Yes, Johnson's targets are primarily of the short variety, but that's the type of passing game Pittsburgh employed more often than not due to the declining arm of their QB. Pair Johnson with someone who can reliably deliver the ball downfield and I think you'd see his ADOT rise.

I could be wrong. But feel that your argument reveals more about the flaws in Ben's game at this point than Johnson's shortcomings as a WR. Guess we'll find out though when Ben retires, or Johnson finds himself with another team.
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, B. Purdy, T. Lance
RB: J. Mixon, N. Chubb, A. Dillon, J. Cook, K. Mitchell, J. McLaughlin, Z. Evans
WR: J. Chase, C. Godwin, D. Johnson, J. Reed, C. Tillman
TE: TJ Hockenson, D. Njoku, B. Jordan

14 Team, .5 PPR, 18 Man Roster, Rush/Rec TD = 6, Pass TD = 4, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, T. Tagovailoa
RB: B. Robinson, K. Walker, R. Stevenson, K. Herbertl
WR: C. Olave, T. Higgins, B. Aiyuk, N. Collins, Z. Flowers, M. Mims
TE: K. Pitts, D. Njoku

CGW
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6544
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:31 pm

Re: Diontae Johnson?

Postby CGW » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:38 pm

Shoreline Steamers wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:26 pm
PR0v3 wrote: Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:10 pm I'm talking about a Crowder clone from a fantasy value/statistical perspective. Diontae may line up outside and Crowder inside, but Crowder averages more yards per reception and target, more yards per route run, and has a lower drop rate. 55% of DJ's targets are <5 yards compared to 43% for Crowder, and of targets >10 yards, Crowder (26% of total targets) averages 11.6 yards compared to 10.5 for DJ (25% of total targets).

DJ may line up outside, but like Crowder, he is a 10 yards or less (or, more often, 5 yards or less) type of receiver that needs league leading passing volume from his offense to produce fantasy relevant numbers.

DJ on a non-type 5 passing volume offense is mostly going to be a 5 catch 50 yard type of guy. He's a third round pick with bottom tier physical attributes that was bolstered by the #1 passing volume offense in the league in 2020. Like Crowder, there's nothing particularly special about his game, he's a situational play.
You're numbers are fine, but I think the reasoning behind them is a little flawed.

Yes, Johnson's targets are primarily of the short variety, but that's the type of passing game Pittsburgh employed more often than not due to the declining arm of their QB. Pair Johnson with someone who can reliably deliver the ball downfield and I think you'd see his ADOT rise.

I could be wrong. But feel that your argument reveals more about the flaws in Ben's game at this point than Johnson's shortcomings as a WR. Guess we'll find out though when Ben retires, or Johnson finds himself with another team.
I agree, his low ADot is a product of the system protecting Big Ben. We will find out in a year or two how this plays out.

Either way, not a big fan of the Crowder comp. Nothing against Crowder but Diontae has already put up more yards than Crowder's best season. Diontae only ran 7% of his snaps out of the slot in 2020. I'm of the opinion that Diontae is one of the better route runners out there and separates with the best of them. Guys who run good routes, beat press coverage, and routinely get good separation will get targets regardless of the QB situation.

tresskid84
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1458
Joined: Wed Apr 09, 2014 10:02 am
Contact:

Re: Diontae Johnson?

Postby tresskid84 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:52 pm

Are we doing this again???
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 11 guests