Rookie QB discussion

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
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Rookie QB discussion

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:54 am

Well, after 2 weeks, Mac Jones has looked the best. Still very early, but "generational" Trevor has looked anything but, and has his hands full in that Dumpster fire led by Urban. Wilson, who I always had my doubts with, and still do, has looked awful. Fields did his best to give the game away yesterday, also looked bad. Lance is planted to the bench, but looked raw and incomplete in the pre-season. There was always a good chance a few of these guys didn't pan out, and right now, can't say that idea has really shifted.

What are your thoughts on the early performances, is Mac the safest? Is Wilson in over his head? Did they start him too early? Is Lance benefiting from sitting? Is Lawrence overhyped? If Dalton is healthy, should Fields go back to the bench? What say you?
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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby Mjvb5 » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:05 am

Mac looks the safest but has a "capped" ceiling. Not too athletic, not reallt a gunslinger etc. If I had to bet which of them is still starting in the nfl in 5 years I'm taking him. Top 3 qb unlikely but sticking around looks like a good bet through two weeks.

The rest of them looked raw, underreported, overwhelmed whatever you wanna call it. They all have much more upside but just look like they need time, whether that time results jn development or then continuing to look bad is another story

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby gpaok » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:08 am

I agree on Mac looking the best so far (2 weeks). I do think Lance and Fields will show up if they stay on the bench for a few more weeks. Sounds contradicting but I think them getting the experience first from the sidelines helps them more - like Mahomes who sat out the entire first year until the last game of the season, even Jackson sat out most of his first year!

Wilson has looked bad but looking at how solid Darnold looks I’m starting to think it’s the Jets!
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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby abloom » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:19 am

I think it makes more sense to look at the teams.

Out of the Jags, Jets, 49ers, bears, and Pats the two best teams (by a lot) in terms of coaching and roster has to be the 49ers and Pats. I also highly doubt that Jones would be as good in any of the other 4 systems as he is in NE.

I think if you are looking for 2021 production, Jones may give you the highest floor, buy I think he also has the lowest ceiling (assuming all QBs are playing). He's not going to be asked to go out and win games this year, he's going to be asked to go out and not lose them. The pats will rely on their defense to win. I know that Jones gets compared to Brady a lot and I'm not going to do that here except for saying I think the pats coaching staff is looking to develop Jones the way they did Brady in the early years. Have a great defense, stress ball security, and minimize his risk. Unfortunately for the pats, the game has changed in the last 20 years and defenses are not allowed to be as physical. I think close / low scoring games the pats will be winning far more than losing but in shootouts they definitely are at a disadvantage.


This is similar to the 49ers imo. Lance isn't starting right now because they are a playoff contender with Jimmy under center. When lance does play he'll likely be asked to do similar stuff as Jones in terms of ball control and reducing turn overs.

That being said, I think Lawrence still has the most potential out of the group, but that team and coaching staff is not doing him any favors.

When it comes to Wilson, I think he'll be okay. The jets were a horrible team last year, a rookie QB isn't going to turn that around on his own. I think Wilson will be fine if the team is built up

I think the QB I have the most concerns with is fields. And I liked fields a lot pre draft. But him slipping past the Panthers and broncos (and even the dolfins to some extent) has me worried that other teams don't value him the same way. The bears coaching staff is also in a difficult position and I'm unsure if they will be there next year.
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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:26 am

I'll have more thoughts later, but my early thoughts reinforces that QB really does embody so much of organization, coaching, scheme, play calling, and of course offensive line. It's why Kyler Murray has been looking as good as he has.

Of course, a select few QBs can overcome those things like Deshaun Watson has, but I don't think Zach Wilson is that guy. I think Lawrence can be, but I think Jacksonville blew it by giving him Urban, Bevell and Schottenheimer.

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby Dynos » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:32 am

i think the expectation for rookies QB were off the charts.

1-Lawrence/Wilson didn't looks good so far, but i think it's learning process for them. What you want to see is how they improve from those mistakes. Both are trying to do too much sometimes. Also we can see that both team need Oline and support to help their young QBs.

2-Mac Jones looked good but he didn't have to do much to win the second game. Defense is so good so just need to do a play there and there.

3-Field similar to Wilson and lawrence, he threw a big interception and almost lost the game. But what i want to see in the future is how he learns from those play.

4-Lance should continue on the bench for the year, it's better for his development.
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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby CGW » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:26 am

Id like to see if Jones can throw the ball downfield at all. This isnt looking like an offense that will score much against good defenses, with average depth of target of 6 yards. Jones hasn't been asked to do much, but he's done it really well. Time will tell if he's more Alex Smith or Tom Brady, but either way looks like he will be sticking around a while.

Also curious to see how the rest of these guys bounce back from bad weeks.

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:12 am

Wilson's ball placement needs to get better. On a completion to E Moore early in the 2nd quarter, he left a lot of yards on the field. He was just wide open, and leading Moore slightly inside would have allowed significant YAC, maybe even a score if he beats the safety, who was nowhere near him. Instead he leads him to the side lines and out of bound with no YAC.

https://youtu.be/YJd2cDsFQaA?t=193
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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby ArrylT » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:29 am

https://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-p ... ld-strikes

Mike Reiss on Mac Jones (and rookie QB development)
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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby Ice » Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:13 am

While it is way too early to pass judgements on rookie QB's, all are playing pretty much as expected.

I was very high on Mac Jones as the 2nd best prospect and he sure hasn't disappointed. He reads defenses at an advanced rate and already takes what is a given without even saying thank you.

The rest have a ways to go.

Lawrence reminds me of Troy Aikman as one of the best prospects I have ever seen but he has gone to a dreadful team similar to Wilson and the Jets. These two won't win many games this season because the cast of characters simply isn't in compete mode at this level yet. The calls for Fields have been strong but he looks pretty lost behind a bad O Line.

Lance should be a beneficiary playing on a good team behind a winning QB.

In the End QB at this level is extremely difficult and it takes a long time for most.

I will say Watching this group should provide a new appreciation for how Herbert burst on the scene much like Dak, and Wilson before him. It is interesting how the game slows down for some much faster than others.

No worries at this point for any of them.

All have a bright future at this point.
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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:29 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:12 am Wilson's ball placement needs to get better. On a completion to E Moore early in the 2nd quarter, he left a lot of yards on the field. He was just wide open, and leading Moore slightly inside would have allowed significant YAC, maybe even a score if he beats the safety, who was nowhere near him. Instead he leads him to the side lines and out of bound with no YAC.

https://youtu.be/YJd2cDsFQaA?t=193
Feels like watching Johnny Football.

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby Sriracha » Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:40 pm

Things are shaking out a lot like I thought they would pre draft.

T-Law : talented but overhyped. People comped him to Andrew Luck but his college football tape showed a lot more areas that needed improvement (at least according to the QB gurus I follow).

Zach Wilson: talented but is struggling vs more talented NFL defenses just like he has his whole career vs non-cupcake college defenses.

Trey Lance: More polished than people expected, but still raw. Sitting behind an underrated NFL QB and isn't likely to start anytime soon. I still believe he has the highest upside (or at least comparable upside to Lawrence) and is in the best situation to develop making his floor fairly high, as well.

Justin Fields: Elite physical talent still trying to figure out the mental side of the game. Similar to presumed 1.01 in 2022 Spencer Rattler who I've also been lower on than consensus throughout the off-season.

Mac Jones: Most surprised by how good Jones is. I was high on him throughout the process comping him to the top 4 QBs in terms of NFL talent, but he's thus far showcased a possible Drew Brees-esque ceiling. Elite QB mind with better accuracy than he showcased at his pro day. Don't expect much out of him his rookie year but people are really sleeping on his possible upside. The guy is a super computer out there and is already finding the open man with ease and throwing his receivers open with elite ball placement and anticipation.

Still way too early to panic with any of these QBs -- they certainly all have elite upside.

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby mild » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:04 pm

I'm not overreacting to Zach Wilson going against (one of) the greatest defensive coordinators in the sport in his second game in the Pros. This was always going to happen - school is in session, and Professor Belichick is going to give you the hardest test of your life.

His arm talent and ability to throw on the run still makes him the highest ceiling QB in this Rookie Class to me. He just doesn't have the horses around him yet - he was missing his LT, on an already-iffy line, and his best receivers are Corey Davis and a rookie. There's no TE of note there, and the running game does not inspire any threat either. It's hard to run the Shannahan system without a good line... or an elite dual-role TE... or a decent rusher... but maybe they'll get there at some point.

The coaching and FO staff there is good, and he has the right mental makeup to take this loss in stride. It's September, his 2nd game, and we play dynasty. R-E-L-A-X.

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby Nanananananana » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:01 pm

I traded Jones away because I just think there’s very little chance of him ever being a high end fantasy QB. The patriots had the best quarterback of all time for 20+ years and how many of those years was he a difference maker in fantasy.

The other four it’s just way way way way way way way way way way way too early to judge, they are all super talented.

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Re: Rookie QB discussion

Postby Sriracha » Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:10 pm

Nanananananana wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:01 pm I traded Jones away because I just think there’s very little chance of him ever being a high end fantasy QB. The patriots had the best quarterback of all time for 20+ years and how many of those years was he a difference maker in fantasy.
Brady's fantasy finishes during his time in NE
8
11
10
2
7
1
-- (lost season)
7
6
3
3
14
11
2
21 (suspended 4 games for deflate gate -- 5th in ppg)
3
11

so.. Pretty much every year he didnt tear an ACL and played 16 games. :lol:


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