Rookie QB discussion

[StripesOfKC]

You're correct, the Rookies are 1-10 - and that sole win was Mac Jones over Zach Wilson.

This is something worth posting:

"Here's every relevant quarterback this season, the number of total pass attempts they've thrown, the number of those that have gone 15 or more air yards, the rate they've gone 15 or more air yards, and the completion rate on those 15-plus air yard throws."



Definitely tells *some* of the story with what's going on with these rookie guys. Zach Wilson is actually kind of encouraging by this metric - and that's -with- all those drops from his awful, no good receivers.

Aside: Justin Herbert... freakin' wow.

Gotta be honest, I have no idea what the takeaway from that chart should be.

x2

Not much really

But if a guy has a low % or a lot of picks it's less bad if they're pushing the ball down the field for those picks/incompletions than if they're dinking and dunking and still getting intercepted

Doesn't make them good but it makes them bad on harder throws/shows they are willing to make harder throws

[mild]

Gotta be honest, I have no idea what the takeaway from that chart should be.

Hmmm. OK, I'll tell you what stands out to me...

Deep accuracy / willingness + ability to throw deep is a good sign for fantasy, and for playing the QB position.

QB's with no downfield passing component are players we want to avoid short-and-long-term in fantasy. (Dalton, Fields TBD, Jimmy G)

We are more concerned with the frequency than the completion percentage (unless the player is playing like hot garbage ie Hurts)

Some of this tells us what we already know - Matt Ryan has been unable to throw the deep ball this year either thanks to his line or the scheme (or both). Jimmy G is not a proficient passer past 15 yards. Zach Wilson is playing "hero ball" behind an incredible bad line on an undermanned team. Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Justin Herbert are all playing the game at a high level right now, and their deep shot shots are reflecting this.

We can possibly expect more regression to the mean from Josh Allen in the future - his deep rate is there, he just needs to hit them. We know he can do it, so there's reasonable expectation to see the Buffalo passing offense hit some bigger plays soon based on this volume. Conversely, Herbert is converting his deep shots at an astounding rate. That may continue, but it's more likely we could expect it to regress to the mean slightly.

Ultimately, the deep shot is the explosive play that unlocks ceiling weeks for QB's. Keeping tabs on the QB's that are hitting those is valuable for fantasy. Carry on

[Sriracha]

Gotta be honest, I have no idea what the takeaway from that chart should be.

Hmmm. OK, I'll tell you what stands out to me...

Deep accuracy / willingness + ability to throw deep is a good sign for fantasy, and for playing the QB position.

QB's with no downfield passing component are players we want to avoid short-and-long-term in fantasy. (Dalton, Fields TBD, Jimmy G)

This is heavily dictated by weaponry, protection and game script.

Mac Jones for instance has thrown more deep balls, at a higher percentage than Wilson.. and 11 of his 20 this season came this week when he was down multiple scores.

Zach has had that game script every game this season because his play thus far has been absolutely horrific (sorry if I offended those trying to make excuses for him).

That doesn't mean that I'm calling Zach a bust 3 games into his career... His QBR all 3 of these games has been 19.8, 8.8 and 37.4 (out of 100). He has time to right the ship, but he's a big reason why the Jets have looked like big poopy caw caw so far this season.

[StripesOfKC]

Gotta be honest, I have no idea what the takeaway from that chart should be.

Hmmm. OK, I'll tell you what stands out to me...

Deep accuracy / willingness + ability to throw deep is a good sign for fantasy, and for playing the QB position.

QB's with no downfield passing component are players we want to avoid short-and-long-term in fantasy. (Dalton, Fields TBD, Jimmy G)

This is heavily dictated by weaponry, protection and game script.

Mac Jones for instance has thrown more deep balls, at a higher percentage than Wilson.. and 11 of his 20 this season came this week when he was down multiple scores.

Zach has had that game script every game this season because his play thus far has been absolutely horrific (sorry if I offended those trying to make excuses for him).

That doesn't mean that I'm calling Zach a bust 3 games into his career... His QBR all 3 of these games has been 19.8, 8.8 and 37.4 (out of 100). He has time to right the ship, but he's a big reason why the Jets have looked like big poopy caw caw so far this season.

I don't need to make excuses

We both know full well how Mac Jones would look on the Jets or Jaguars

[Sriracha]

I don't need to make excuses

We both know full well how Mac Jones would look behind the Jets or Jaguars OL

Mac Jones was under duress a lot vs NO. Sacked twice and was hit 11 times. His weapons are arguably worse... and his QBR was 50 despite throwing 3 INTs... so no, I do not know how Mac would look behind those lines.

Odds are he'd be getting the ball out much quicker limiting his O-line's deficiencies.

[StripesOfKC]

I don't need to make excuses

We both know full well how Mac Jones would look behind the Jets or Jaguars OL

Mac Jones was under duress a lot vs NO. Sacked twice and was hit 11 times. His weapons are arguably worse... and his QBR was 50 despite throwing 3 INTs... so no, I do not know how Mac would look behind those lines.

Odds are he'd be getting the ball out much quicker limiting his O-line's deficiencies.

Are you claiming the Patriots to be a worse spot for a QB than the Jets/Jaguars?

[Sriracha]

Are you claiming the Patriots to be a worse spot for a QB than the Jets/Jaguars?

I'm saying it's an unfalsifiable narrative instead of the aforementioned conclusion you declared it as.

I also would not lump Trevor Lawrence's struggles with Zach Wilson's.

[ArrylT]

I don't need to make excuses

We both know full well how Mac Jones would look behind the Jets or Jaguars OL

Mac Jones was under duress a lot vs NO. Sacked twice and was hit 11 times. His weapons are arguably worse... and his QBR was 50 despite throwing 3 INTs... so no, I do not know how Mac would look behind those lines.

Odds are he'd be getting the ball out much quicker limiting his O-line's deficiencies.

Are you claiming the Patriots to be a worse spot for a QB than the Jets/Jaguars?

Imho a QBR of 50ish with a limited sample and after a game with 3 INTs is not that bad by any means. Prescotts current QBR is 52, Wilsons is 55.

Here are ESPNs current QBRs for all QBs

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

[Ice]

I think they’re struggling because they’re all on awful teams, particularly the jags and jets. Lance is the only one on a good team and he’s not playing. Just saw a gif on Twitter of Wilson evading pressure, stepping up in the pocket and hitting a reciever in the hands and it bounces off the guys hands for an int.

Exactly.

QB is a really hard position when the team is good. When the O line is the worst part of bad team you get Wilson or worse yet...... Fields.

I think the rookies are something like 1-10 so far this year.

You're correct, the Rookies are 1-10 - and that sole win was Mac Jones over Zach Wilson.

This is something worth posting:

"Here's every relevant quarterback this season, the number of total pass attempts they've thrown, the number of those that have gone 15 or more air yards, the rate they've gone 15 or more air yards, and the completion rate on those 15-plus air yard throws."



Definitely tells *some* of the story with what's going on with these rookie guys. Zach Wilson is actually kind of encouraging by this metric - and that's -with- all those drops from his awful, no good receivers.

Aside: Justin Herbert... freakin' wow.

Thanks for the information. It will be interesting to see this at week 8 or 9 to see the trends if possible!

[CubfanAA]

QB's with no downfield passing component are players we want to avoid short-and-long-term in fantasy. (Dalton, Fields TBD, Jimmy G)

This is why it's bad to take data like this chart and make fantasy takes about it without digging into the actual play. Fields deep passing ability is actually one of his best attributes. You just can't tell from this chart, because in his 1 start so far he had the worst offensive line play of any game this year along with some of the worst play-calling from his coach. Yet he is being listed here as a long-term avoid because of his downfield passing. It's just flawed for dynasty thinking in a big time way. Short term I agree in that his offensive line won't change much this year and Nagy won't get fired until year end, but long-term he will almost for sure be in a better situation next year (it really can't get worse). This is why one of the other QB's you have listed is Dalton. It's not the QB at all...it's the situation which will change long-term.

[DLF3000]

How about these rookie QBs!

Chaos!

Only 3 games in ofc - excited to see how they all end up this year and beyond.

Still love Lawrence the most by far - look forward to watching him play on TNF.

Did I mention... chaos!!

[Jigga94]

How about these rookie QBs!

Chaos!

Only 3 games in ofc - excited to see how they all end up this year and beyond.

Still love Lawrence the most by far - look forward to watching him play on TNF.

Did I mention... chaos!!

Mills > any 1st round rookie QB

[killer_of_giants]

How about these rookie QBs!

Chaos!

Only 3 games in ofc - excited to see how they all end up this year and beyond.

Still love Lawrence the most by far - look forward to watching him play on TNF.

Did I mention... chaos!!

Mills > any 1st round rookie QB

i just sold him for a 2nd, so yeah, most likely!

[Valhalla]

I think they’re struggling because they’re all on awful teams, particularly the jags and jets. Lance is the only one on a good team and he’s not playing. Just saw a gif on Twitter of Wilson evading pressure, stepping up in the pocket and hitting a reciever in the hands and it bounces off the guys hands for an int.

Exactly.

QB is a really hard position when the team is good. When the O line is the worst part of bad team you get Wilson or worse yet...... Fields.

I think the rookies are something like 1-10 so far this year.

You're correct, the Rookies are 1-10 - and that sole win was Mac Jones over Zach Wilson.

This is something worth posting:

"Here's every relevant quarterback this season, the number of total pass attempts they've thrown, the number of those that have gone 15 or more air yards, the rate they've gone 15 or more air yards, and the completion rate on those 15-plus air yard throws."



Definitely tells *some* of the story with what's going on with these rookie guys. Zach Wilson is actually kind of encouraging by this metric - and that's -with- all those drops from his awful, no good receivers.

Aside: Justin Herbert... freakin' wow.

I'd also add a wow to Kyler Murray.

[Sriracha]

How about these rookie QBs!

Chaos!

Only 3 games in ofc - excited to see how they all end up this year and beyond.

Still love Lawrence the most by far - look forward to watching him play on TNF.

Did I mention... chaos!!

Mills > any 1st round rookie QB

i just sold him for a 2nd, so yeah, most likely!

Mills unironically would’ve likely been a 1st round pick in this year’s draft class if he stayed in school.

He has talent, but came into the NFL very raw because he missed most of his collegiate career with injuries